Cincinnati: Prospecting for Prospects

Cincinnati tends to get that string of bad luck right around mid season where injuries pile up and lineup mainstays are replaced by rookies & journeymen from their farm system.

Then there's the phase when executives realize the season is obviously lost and begin trading the leftovers from the Reds' opening day starting nine to teams in contention for unproven prospects. This has taken place each of the past, it seems like, ten years.

This means Cincinnati plays out the rest of the season with a makeshift lineup of guys whose names you vaguely recognize or have never heard of. Those guys who made an appearance in last night's game (Sept. 9) who fall into this category include: Kevin Barker, Drew Stubbs, Wladimir Balentien, Corky Miller, Darnell McDonald and Paul Janish.

Yes, I have heard of most of these guys. No, I'm not saying they didn't deserve to be called up or have not proven they deserve a chance to play baseball at the top level.

What is amazing to me is the number of Reds prospects who get this chance each year and yet Cincinnati is unable to produce enough homegrown talent to field a better team or, at least, trade potential stars for current stars to remain competitive as the season progresses.

With all that experience shouldn't Cincinnati's farm system be a gold mine for baseball talent?

For fun I took a look a couple of box scores from past Septembers to see who I could find. On Sept. 25 of 2008 those who made the box score include Adam Rosales, Danny Richar and Jon Adkins. On Sept. 19, 2007 such names as Buck Coats and Tom Shearn appear.

In September of 2006 Chris Denorfia, Dewayne Wise, Sun-Woo Kim, Brendan Harris and Ray Olmedo swung by and September 2005 saw Jacob Cruz, Jason Standridge, Brian Shackleford, Josh Hancock, Aaron Holbert, Miguel Perez and Chris Booker donning a Reds uniform.

Now it is understandable that not every prospect who gets the call will pan out and sometimes minor leaguers are called up only to fill in for someone who is injured or unable to play that day for some reason (this becomes their "cup of coffee" in the major leagues).

Although...I dare you to review the names I just mentioned and pick out the two or three who proved to be useful for more than just a handful of games over the past few years. Good luck, you will need it.

Of course, the fellas who took part in last night's game could turn out to be diamonds in the rough and I really hope they do. I'm a Reds fan and I want to see them succeed.

Unfortunately, we have gotten used to games where only half of the starting nine are familiar to the average fan. You should try and review Cincinnati's list of draft picks for the past five or six years. You will find some familiar names, but most of those guys didn't evolve and now play for some other team. And for good reason.

Does this mean the Reds don't draft well? The draft is a crap shoot and sometimes you get lucky with some guys (Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Adam Dunn), but they are few and far between for Cincinnati.

A few times the Reds have lucked out by trading for players who have had a snippet of major league experience. Those guys include Brandon Phillips, Edinson Volquez and Aaron Harang.

Is it that the Reds have scouts who just are not very good at scouting? Reviewing Cincinnati's past ownership (A St. Bernard named Schottzie...and its furry pet "Marge"), it comes as no surprise that there wasn't much money spent on this much needed segment of the baseball business.

Does Cincinnati have a poor farm system? The AAA Louisville Bats won the International League's Midwest Division by a landslide, AA Chattanooga finished 65-74 on the year, high single-A Sarasota was 54-83, Low single-A Dayton was 59-80, rookie league Billings was 23-51, rookie league Gulf Coast League Reds were 28-27 and the rookie league DSL Reds were 29-41.

At least Louisville did well, that's something...right?

According to Baseball America here are the Reds top prospects for each of the past 10 years: Rob Bell, Gookie Dawkins, Austin Kearns (2001, 2002), Chris Gruler, Ryan Wagner, Homer Bailey (2005, 2006, 2007), and Jay Bruce. Bell is a White Sox, Dawkins is a Royal, Kearns and Wagner are digging their graves as Nationals, Gruler is out of baseball, Bailey is at least improving his professional stature, and Bruce is working through an injury.

Though it could change with time, the list is not impressive.

Cincinnati's last 10 top draft picks include: Ty Howington, David Espinosa, Jeremy Sowers, Chris Gruler, Ryan Wagner, Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, and Yonder Alonso. Howington joins Gruler as no longer being in baseball and Sowers refused to sign went, back to school and was drafted by the Indians (and Tribe fans are not happy with him).

Wagner (as I said before) is a National, Bruce is working on being a player who doesn't strike out 90 percent of the time, Bailey is improving and Stubbs is getting some quality time with Reds right now.

Espinosa was sent to Detroit in the deal for Brian Moehler in 2002 (and is still lingering in the minors) and the jury is still out on Mesoraco (.228, 8 HR, 37 RBI for Sarasota this year) and Alonso (.292, 9 hr, 52 RBI at three different levels this year).

The Reds selected Arizona State righthander Mike Leake with their first pick this year and agreed to terms with him last month on a reported $2.27 million bonus. Again, nothing to hang your hat on but there is still time for these three guys.

As we watch the Reds struggle through the remaining weeks we can at least take solace in the fact that we could be getting a glimpse of what may be a decent team in the next few years. Or we will be watching prospects continue to fizzle and fade away.

One of these days folks the Reds will find a way to get their minor league system to work for them and not against them. Keep the faith Reds fans.