UFC 189: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC 189 is finally here. The jam-packed fight card takes place in Las Vegas, and Conor McGregor is your headliner opposite Chad Mendes.
We will find out just how big of a draw McGregor truly is in his first headlining appearance. Unfortunately, it will not come against Jose Aldo. Thankfully, it's still an elite-level matchup.
The co-main event is not to be forgotten. Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler meets No. 2-ranked ranked contender Rory MacDonald. The two have met before in the Octagon, and it was Lawler who nabbed a split decision victory.
The pay-per-view main card is worth every penny the UFC is charging. It's a stacked event with two titles on the line. But where should you play your funds in regards to the betting odds? That is what we will take a look at here. There are several interesting underdogs to look at.
This is the event many of us have been waiting for, and UFC 189 will be sure to deliver. Let's hope it delivers in the wallet as well.
Brad Pickett (+550) vs. Thomas Almeida (-900)
1 of 5
I am on Team Almeida, but I find these betting odds ludicrous.
Thomas Almeida is still young, and this is a step up in competition. Brad Pickett has only lost to contenders in the UFC.
I like Almeida to finish Pickett. The dynamic youngster puts the aging vet out to pasture.
Regardless, at plus-550 I would throw a small amount on Pickett. The crafty veteran has solid grappling that can stifle Almeida. Also, this is Pickett's return bout to 135. He will not be as drawn out come fight day. He is very much a live dog, and can pick up a decision victory.
Prediction: Almedia defeats Pickett by TKO in the first round
The Play: Take a small risk on Pickett at these odds
Gunnar Nelson (+150) vs. Brandon Thatch (-185)
2 of 5
Gunnar Nelson was originally slated to fight John Hathaway, but he was forced off the card. Enter Brandon Thatch. This is a fight between two rising prospects looking to get back into the mix at 170 pounds.
We have not seen Thatch since Benson Henderson upset him on Valentine's Day. Prior to that, Thatch was a rising star in the welterweight division.
Thatch is a big welterweight, and one with a excellent striking arsenal. He will have a height and reach advantage over Nelson. Henderson laid out a blueprint for Nelson, but he won't have the speed advantage. That could ultimately be the difference.
I am still going to take Nelson. The Henderson loss was a learning experience for Thatch, but one that he won't be able to capitalize on just yet. Expect Nelson to take him down in the second and third rounds to secure a decision victory.
Prediction: Nelson defeats Thatch by decision
The Play: Take Nelson straight up, or Thatch by TKO
Dennis Bermudez (-210) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+170)
3 of 5
This fight could be a sleeper for Fight of the Night. Dennis Bermudez and Jeremy Stephens throw heat.
I expect both men to want to make this a war, and that favors Stephens. He has a five-inch reach advantage over Bermudez. He is also the more skilled striker. Bermudez will have to rely on his wrestling to win the fight, but Stephens should be able to defend his attempts.
I think Stephens catches Bermudez clean in the first round.
The loss will be the first non-submission loss in Bermudez's career. Stephens can shut out the lights on any featherweight if he lands flush. Bermudez will get caught in an early firefight and eat one of Stephens' right hands. Game over.
My run on dogs continues here. Bermudez will have to hold Stephens down for 15 minutes to win this fight. I like Stephens' striking and power over Bermudez's similar attributes.
Prediction: Stephens defeats Bermudez by KO in the first round
The Play: Place another small bet on the underdog
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Robbie Lawler (+145) vs. Rory MacDonald (-175)
4 of 5
The rematch between Rory MacDonald and Robbie Lawler has not been getting the attention it deserves, but it will captivate the audience on Saturday night.
Lawler edged out MacDonald in their first meeting, and it propelled him to a title shot. He lost that fight to Johny Hendricks, but reeled off two more to earn the shot that ended up with him wearing gold.
The odds reflect how close the fight will be. If you feel strongly on one fighter ending up the victor then that is where you should go, but I would suggest skipping this fight. The return on a the 50-50 fight just isn't worth it.
I'm going to take Lawler to retain.
His style is a perfect foil for what MacDonald brings to the table. The pressure will not allow MacDonald to control the pace of the fight. And Lawler can keep it up for five rounds. It will eventually be too much for MacDonald who ends up against the fence eating heavy leather. He won't be knocked out clean, but the referee will have to save him.
Prediction: Lawler defeats MacDonald by TKO in the fourth round
The Play: Don't bet it, just enjoy it
Conor McGregor (-190) vs. Chad Mendes (+155)
5 of 5
We will finally get our answer to if Conor McGregor can handle an elite wrestler this weekend. McGregor will meet Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight championship.
It is a bit surprising to see Mendes as the underdog. He is a stellar wrestler with a solid striking attack. He also possesses power in his fists. McGregor has showcased his excellent striking, but hasn't proved his ability to defend takedowns from the top end wrestlers.
Mendes has been fighting the best of the best, and aside from losses to Jose Aldo he has beaten them all.
Even still, I am taking McGregor. He has the "It Factor," and I love his ability to dictate the range with his striking. That will make it more difficult for Mendes to get inside. McGregor is also creative with his attacks, and that is what will lead to Mendes getting put out.
McGregor will make Mendes think with his varied attacks. He won't know what is coming next, and McGregor capitalizes.
As for betting, I would suggest staying away from betting either straight up. However, if you feel strongly on one fighter over the other then you should look at the prop bets to maximize your return. That is where you will make money.
Prediction: McGregor defeats Mendes by TKO in the second round
The Play: Maximize your bet by seeking prop bets on your favorite
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
