Come to Think of It: Analyzing the Value of Chone Figgins for the Cubs

A new year, a new scapegoat. Last year's playoff failure was blamed on the Cubs being too right-handed. Now, at least based on what Cubs manager Lou Piniella recently had to say, the thinking is that the Cubs are too slow.

Lou's need for speed aside, it is true that the Cubs are a slow, plodding bunch. They rank last in the NL in stolen bases. And while the stolen base has not been as popular since 'roided up players starting popping muscles out of their shirt sleeves, it seems to be on a bit of a comeback.

Meanwhile, rumor has it that the Cubs will try to "steal" Chone Figgins if he enters the free agent market.

Figgins certainly has speed. But he has barely been an effective base stealer this season. The primary value of the stolen base lies in the success rate; stealing at less than a 75 percent success rate is detrimental to an offense. This year, Figgins has stolen 39 bases and has been caught 16 times, for a 70 percent success rate.

So, while his speed may help him get infield hits, and score more runs, his basestealing would seem to hurt the team more than help.

In addition to speed, I'm sure that Lou also believes he needs a true lead-off hitter. Figgins' near .400 OBP would seem to fit that bill quite nicely.

Now, it seems to this scribe that the Cubs have other problems besides lack of speed—an inability to hit with runners in scoring position; a low OBP and shaky defense, among other criteria has accounted for much of the team's lack of success this year.

Luckily, though the reasoning may be faulty, Lou's desire for his team to get faster still could result in offensive improvement if the right player is acquired.

Figgins could be one of those "right" players.

One problem is, of course, that there will be many suitors for his services, including the team on the other side of town. White Sox GM Kenny Williams is said to have wanted  Figgins for a long time.

Of course, you certainly can't discount the probability of the Angels wanting to bring him back.

Buster Olney thinks Chone Figgins will end up in left field with the Yankees.

What about his age? He turns 32 in January, so the obvious question is, how long will that speed Lou talks about hold up?

Enter Dan Szymborski, whose ZIPS system is one of the most highly regarded player projection tools in the sabermetric community. The BaseballThinkFactory had this quote from Mr. Szymborski regarding Figgins:

“In Figgins’ case, he has a broad range of skills,” Szymborski said. “Those types of players tend to age well.”

Barring injury, Szymborski doesn't believe that Figgins will face a steep decline anytime soon.

“When you’re talking about a guy who’s already 31 and is still a speed player, you’re not going to see a sudden decline,” Szymborski said. “There’s no real danger he’s going to become Sean Casey on the bases in the next few years.”

Alright then, with that concern out of the way, the next issue involves the money it will take to sign Figgins as a FA. Once new owner Tom Ricketts gains control of the Cubs, he will set a payroll that Hendry will have to adhere to.

If the payroll allows for room to maneuver, or if Hendry can get financially creative, it has been estimated that it will take a contract similar to what Brian Roberts signed earlier this year—four years, $40 million to obtain Figgins in the open market.

Because his versatility has been a bit overstated, you have to wonder where he would play for the Cubs in 2010. Since 2006, Figgins has played a handful of other positions, but has been primarily a third baseman. Second base would likely be his primary position with the Cubs, since we already have a third baseman and three outfielders signed to huge deals.

It is difficult to gauge his effectiveness as a second baseman given the low sample size. However, Figgins certainly would be a solid replacement for Aramis Ramirez at third if A-Ram doesn't heal up properly in the offseason. 

But how well does Figgins play defense and why is that so important? Well, there is the often-cited case of Tampa Bay’s radically improved 2008 defense accounting for their rapid and improbable rise from the AL East Cellar to pennant winners.

Defensive metrics fully support that theory. Tampa’s BABIP was the lowest in MLB at .283 and their Defensive Efficiency rating was the best in MLB at 0.710.

This season, the Giants, Rangers, and Tigers have had nice turnarounds. Not coincidentally, they rank third, fourth, and fifth, respectively, in the entire MLB in UZR.

Back to Figgins. He has played 129 games at third this year, where he has really flashed the leather. He has a +13.3 UZR, which is third best in the major leagues, behind only Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria.

(For those of you wondering, for his career, Aramis Ramirez has a -8.3 UZR. His only outstanding result was in 2007).

Offensively, Figgins adds a lot of value, though he does not hit for power. His slash line currently sits at 303/.399/.397/.795. An on-base around .400 would look mighty nice sitting atop the Cubs lineup in 2010.

Over the last two-and-a-half years Figgins' overall play has earned +10.1 wins, which according to Fangraphs, is at an all-star caliber of play.  

So what about his health? While Figgins has been healthy this year, it is his walk year. Prior to 2009, Figgins missed time in 2008 with a hamstring injury, and broke the tips of two fingers in 2007, though that seems to be rather freakish.   

The bottom line is that Figgins is a pretty nice player and if he continued to perform as he has, would be of value to the Cubs, come to think of it.