Bat to the Future: Detroit's Past Failings Won't Hold Them Back in 2009

This is not 2006.

Nor is it 1968 1987, 2003, or 1492.

This much probably seems obvious to you, right?

And yet a day doesn't go by when someone, somewhere does not reach to the past to make a comparison to the present.

While in life it's a pretty good idea to learn history so you don't repeat it, analogies of that nature just don't work as well in sports.

Despite the fact that Bill Buckner let the ball go between his legs in 1986, the Red Sox have won two World Series titles since.

Everyone knows the Tigers had not played above .500 baseball in any month of August since the year 2000. And yet, in 2009 they were able to go 16-13.

So right now, I'm getting sick of hearing about the year 2006—the year the Tigers made a surprising run to the playoffs after 22 years on the outside looking in.

First it was used as a positive. “Hey, this season is starting to feel like 2006!”

Why exactly, I don't know. Maybe it was the pitching, with Justin Verlander starting games and Joel Zumaya pitching in the late innings.

It certainly wasn't because the run-scoring potential was the same. Until this August, there were not a lot of late-innings comebacks like we remember from the 2006 “Cardiac Cats.”

Nor was it because the 2009 Tigers had a lot of the same roster. Just four of that season's starting position players—and five position players overall—will likely play in 82 or more games this season. Only one member of the Tigers' 2009 rotation also started in 2006. Only two members of the Tigers' current bullpen played important roles three seasons ago.

The best reason I can come up with for the comparison is that in 2006 the Tigers were in first place in the American League Central Division all summer. In 2009, they were as well.

Both clubs were fun, of course. But that's because winning baseball is more fun than losing baseball, isn't it?

Fast forward a bit.

Was 2006 a cautionary tale?

Cries of the Tigers suffering a second-half swoon were bellowed by many this summer. After all, in 2006 they blew a 10-game lead in the division and had to settle for the wild card. In 2007, they led the American League at the All-Star Break only to miss the playoffs entirely.

Surely, 2009 would be no different, right?

Well, I'm not sure entirely. I don't remember any reason being given, other than the fact that during manager Jim Leyland's time in Detroit it also happened.

Leyland frustrated fans all season by resting players enough so they'd be fresh for all 162 games of the year, not just the first 120. Yet that is ignored and some think his players tire out with too much of the season remaining. 

And forget about 2001 to 2005. The Tigers were awful, so expecting a winning second half during those years is just silly.

So what's the argument? That the Tigers have slid in the past, so expect it this year?

As I wrote earlier, the Tigers actually came out of this August with a winning record. They opened September by going 6-0. (And, to focus momentarily on another trend, the Tigers won three games in the ballpark of the defending AL champs. Here I thought they couldn't win on the road!)

So, here we go again. The Tigers lead the division by six-and-a-half games—that's more than at any point in September in 2006. Rather than looking at this as if it's a good thing, worries come out again.

“Remember 2006? They lost four straight at Comerica Park to the Royals and lost the division on the last day!”

Well, let's see what might be different:

• The Tigers' roster: Having a healthy Placido Polanco, for instance, rather than one missing in August and September with a bum shoulder.
• The Twins' roster: Do you see Johan Santana standing on the mound or Torii Hunter in center field?
• The rosters of the Royals, White Sox, and Indians: The division foes face each other a lot still.
• The circumstances: There will be no wild card clinched with a week to go in the season. There will be no letting off the gas early.

Don't mistake me. I am not saying the Tigers have the division wrapped up. A lot can happen in the remaining 25 games.

But what went on in past years really has little to do with what will go on the rest of this season.

Don't fall into the trap of thinking it will.