Early 2015-16 NBA Rookie Award Predictions
With only one big award handed out to the top NBA rookie, we decided to add a few more.
Other than Rookie of the Year, we created eight new awards with predictions for each. These awards cover everything from the top rebounder and assist man to the most dangerous shooter, the surprise rookie and biggest second-round steal.
The criteria for each award is based on projected stats, minutes and the impact the rookies are expected to make.
To clarify, we expect our Rebounding Champ to lead all rookies in rebounds, our Assist Maestro to lead all rookies in assists and the Top Long-Range Sniper to put up the best ratio of three-point attempts to makes.
NBA Rookie of the Year: D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers, PG/SG
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The first-year transition is typically easier for guards than big men, who must adjust to a different breed of bigger NBA power forwards and centers.
We've seen a ball-handler or perimeter player win Rookie of the Year in nine of the last 10 seasons.
Look for D'Angelo Russell to keep the trend going. With razor-sharp skills, a terrific basketball IQ, unbreakable confidence and poise, Russell should be able to contribute and ultimately produce right off the bat.
As a scorer, the biggest thing Russell has going for him is that pull-up jumper, which he made at a 44 percent clip in college, per DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony. Given today's rim protection and the frequency of ball screens, being able to shoot off the dribble has become a must.
Russell also has a reliable three-point stroke (95 threes, 41.1 percent), as well as the playmaking and passing instincts to pad his scoring with assists.
There is no doubt he's going to put points on the board, which should go a long way toward his Rookie of the Year candidacy. As CBS Sports' Zach Harper points out:
"It should be noted that the rookie who scores the most points per game is usually the one rewarded with the honor. Six straight winners have been the leading scorers in their rookie class, with Derrick Rose being the last rookie to win the award without leading all rookies in points per game.
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I'm not sure he puts up the same numbers Damian Lillard did in 2012-13, but I'd pencil Russell in for 15-17 points and 5-6 dimes a night. He's our pick for 2015-16 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Assist Maestro: Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets, PG
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Picking Emmanuel Mudiay to lead all rookies in assists means we also expect the Denver Nuggets to trade Ty Lawson.
It just wouldn't make sense to keep Lawson, especially after having drafted a new potential lead guard. Besides, the Nuggets have been willing to part with him for months, per Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post.
With Lawson gone, Mudiay would have the chance to dominate the ball in Denver, where his playmaking ability should translate to assists in the half court and transition.
Though known mostly for his athleticism and scoring, Mudiay actually has a good feel as a passer off ball screens and drives. He's also willing to prioritize facilitating over hunting for shots.
Unfortunately, the freedom to create will also lead to a high turnover rate, something he struggled with over in China.
Still, if the Nuggets eventually deal Lawson, look for Mudiay to start putting up numbers quickly. He's a high-level shot-creator with NBA-ready size, strength and burst.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings, C
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Willie Cauley-Stein might not offer much offensively as a rookie, but there is no reason why his world-class athleticism and foot speed can't translate to immediate defensive versatility.
From Day 1, he'll enter the league as one of the quickest and bounciest players at his position.
Cauley-Stein should be able to provide rim protection, as well as the ability to switch onto guards in pick-and-roll coverage and even pressure full court.
And considering the Kings finished No. 27 in defensive efficiency, per ESPN.com, and No. 29 in opponent shooting within five feet, per NBA.com, Sacramento has a reason to play Cauley-Stein right away.
I'm not sure he matches Nerlens Noel's 142 blocks and 133 steals from a year ago, but we're expecting legitimate defensive playmaking and impact from the No. 6 pick in the draft.
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Top Long-Range Sniper: Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic, SG/SF
4 of 9The Orlando Magic must find minutes for Mario Hezonja and his lethal outside stroke, which should hold value in a lineup that features players like Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic.
The Magic desperately need a shooter on the wing, and Hezonja made 2.9 threes per 40 minutes at a 38.5 percent clip overseas, per RealGM.com. In one game back in February, he shot 8-of-8 from downtown.
To break down Hezonja's jumper even further, he knocked down 43 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities and 40 percent of shots off the dribble this past season, according to Synergy Sports Technology.
He has terrific 6'8" size and a high release to go with strong elevation and mechanics. And he does a nice job of running around screens and shooting off movement.
"Hezonja is the only player in this draft that could win both the three-point contest at NBA All-Star Weekend and the dunk contest," said ESPN's Fran Fraschilla, via Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel.
Tobias Harris signing elsewhere would only mean more minutes and opportunity for Hezonja, who, after playing against pros overseas, should be ready to roll as a rookie.
Rebounding Champ: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, PF/C
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Karl-Anthony Towns should have no issue leading all rookies in rebounding in 2015-16. Jahlil Okafor will challenge him, especially with all the playing time available in Philadelphia, but Okafor was a poor defensive rebounder at Duke. He picked up a good chunk of his boards on the offensive glass, where he simply outmuscled smaller big men.
Towns, meanwhile, grabbed 12.7 boards per 40 minutes and registered an outstanding 18.5 total rebounding percentage at Kentucky, per Sports-Reference.com.
He has the size and strength to gain position around the hoop, as well as the lift and length to bring in loose balls above the rim.
We'll guess Towns' physical tools, athleticism and instincts translate to around 8.5-9 rebounds per game.
Surprise Impact Rookie: Jerian Grant, New York Knicks, PG/SG
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The New York Knicks may have landed a steal in Jerian Grant, who, at 22 years old with sharp skills and basketball IQ, should be ready to contribute right away.
Quite frankly, assuming Grant was looking for an opportunity to make some noise, he couldn't have landed in a better spot. The Knicks need help at both backcourt positions, and Grant ultimately offers the scoring and passing versatility, as well as the 6'4" size, to run the point or slide off the ball.
Though it may depend on how New York fills its roster in free agency, there is a decent chance Grant may start.
He's a terrific setup man and passer—two core strengths that will hold the most value in the Knicks lineup. But Grant's scoring attack should also translate to a lesser degree. He's strong around the rim and capable of creating shots in the mid-range. And though his three-ball needs ironing out, he still sunk 50 of them last season.
The Knicks may end up experiencing another down year, but look for Grant to emerge as a bright spot and potential cornerstone for this franchise moving forward.
Second-Round Impact Rookie: Jordan Mickey, Boston Celtics, PF
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In terms of value, Jordan Mickey just might have been the Boston Celtics' best pick of the four they made.
Mickey's 6'8" size has held him back in the draft conversation, but he makes up for it with a 7'3" wingspan, a 37 ½" max vertical leap and an unteachable nose for the ball.
He's an excellent athlete for a frontcourt that starts two below-the-rim bigs. And after he led the country in shot-blocking, the Celtics, who finished dead last in the league in blocked shots, could use his rim protection right away.
He may not go for 20 points often, but he's a good scorer around the basket and a capable mid-range shooter.
Mickey should have little trouble becoming a regular in Boston's rotation due to his defense, rebounding and athleticism. And with more reps and minutes, look for his offensive game to gradually improve.
If head coach Brad Stevens had the urge, Mickey would make for an intriguing small-ball 5.
Undrafted Impact Rookie: T.J. McConnell, Philadelphia 76ers, PG
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After going undrafted, T.J. McConnell signed a partially guaranteed deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey.
Given the Sixers' gaping hole at point guard, the Arizona product has a great chance to make the roster and eventually crack the rotation.
McConnell doesn't exactly ace the eye test, but he excels in areas of the game that simply can't be taught.
At 6'2", 188 pounds, he's a strong, relentless perimeter defender. McConnell racked up an insane 324 steals across his four-year college career. His pressure and anticipation result in discomfort and turnovers.
He's also a terrific passer and ball-mover. McConnell's pure point rating ranked No. 4 in the country and No. 1 among power-conference players this past season, per RealGM.com.
He isn't going to light up any scoreboards, but in a lineup with inefficient guards like Isaiah Canaan and Tony Wroten Jr., McConnell's basketball IQ, decision-making and defense could earn him minutes.
Flop of the Year: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, C
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The vibes surrounding Joel Embiid just haven't been positive, and they clearly have nothing to do with his talent. But that talent is worthless in street clothes on the sidelines.
After Embiid missed all of last year following foot surgery, 2015-16 will be considered his rookie season. And he's apparently already starting off behind.
A CT scan recently revealed "an issue in the healing process" of his right foot, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. General manager Sam Hinkie told reporters he didn't "see how [Embiid] is going to play in the Summer League with the conversations we've been having."
Obviously, the hope is that Embiid doesn't require more surgery and another lost season.
But it's now been 16 months since he's played any real competitive five-on-five. Even when (if) Embiid does return, it will be difficult to expect much from him as a rookie.
You also have to wonder how he'll fit in a frontcourt alongside Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel—two bigs who do most of their damage in the paint.
With so much uncertainty surrounding his availability, durability and role, it's just tough to be optimistic about Embiid's immediate outlook.
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