Big Picture: Time To Create Plan For 2010 Cubs

Entering 2009, the Chicago Cubs seemingly stood ready to declare themselves a dynasty. Coming off back-to-back Division titles, soured by back-to-back Division Series losses, Chicago nonetheless appeared poised to walk away with a third straight regular season Championship. A surprising level of turnover from a team that won 97 games in 2008 (some 36% of the roster had not been a part of the '08 team) did nothing to quell optimism that the Cubbies could easily overcome the rather watery competition in the National League Central.

New right fielder Milton Bradley had demonstrated his value in spring training, hitting around .400, and fellow off-season acquisition Kevin Gregg won the closer job with encouraging performances. All signs pointed to another playoff berth, and another chance to snap the long dry spell during which the Cubs have failed to win a pennant.

When the 2010 season opens next April, much will have changed within the Cubs organization. New ownership under Tom Ricketts will be firmly entrenched, renovations to Wrigley Field will likely be underway, and the team playing inside the ballpark will look substantially different from the underachieving 2009 model that fell out of serious contention in mid-August.

But which parts will be different, and how? Who will stay, who will go, and whose roles will be diminished or expanded next season? Those are the questions General Manager Jim Hendry faces as the long winter of Cubs' fans discontent approaches.

Hendry must begin by establishing a more coherent organizational philosophy for the Cubs. He must decide whether to prioritize a recovery of the patient offense that posted the league's highest on-base percentage in 2008; the bullpen, whose woes this season have been well-documented; or the defense that plunged from its place as the class of the NL in '08, to the absolute worst in '09. He has difficult decisions to make on the futures of Bradley, starting pitcher Rich Harden, lefty reliever John Grabow, and arbitration-eligible players like Ryan Theriot, Carlos Marmol, and Sean Marshall. To make the 2010 Cubs an improvement upon the 2009 version, he will need to approach the offseason aggressively, and unpack the tasks before him into three phases.

(Note: All contract information for 2009, as well as service time information and known 2010 contract info, is according to Cot's Contracts, a clearinghouse for MLB contract info: mlbcontracts.blogspot.com)

Posturing

The 2010 Cubs will be a team on the rebound, and as any good rebounder can tell you, it's all about getting good position. Thus, Hendry's first task will be to ensure that the Cubs are well-situated to make the moves they will need to make to return to contention. This begins immediately at the end of the World Series, when the clock begins ticking for clubs to decide whether they will offer salary arbitration to their free agents-to-be, and during which they may take advantage of exclusive negotiating rights.

Five current Cubs will be free agents after the season. Gregg is one of them, and presents the easiest set of choices to Hendry. He would make about five million dollars next year under arbitration rules, an exorbitant sum for a pitcher whose alarming homerun and walk rates led to his recent demotion from the closer's role. His tenure with Chicago is over.

John Grabow appears to present a more intriguing dilemma: he opened his Cubs career with 17 consecutive scoreless appearances and has a 3.03 ERA this year. Digging deeper into the numbers, however, Grabow's warts become apparent. His 1.28 strikeout-to-walk rate makes Carlos Marmol look rather like a control artist, and contributes to a sky-high 1.44 WHIP.

He has also allowed low batting averages on balls in play over the last two seasons (2008: .251; 2009: .272), a reflection of the stellar defense that supported him in Pittsburgh, and an indication that he has been somewhat lucky. Further suggesting a certain amount of luck, Grabow has stranded over 80 percent of base runners this season, well over the league average of 73 percent. Given that Grabow's salary would rise to at least three million next year if offered arbitration, and that 24 year-old John Gaub has been fantastic out of the bullpen in AAA Iowa this season, Grabow is not an economically intelligent option.

Reed Johnson, who made three million dollars in 2009, will also likely not be offered arbitration, as the emergence of fourth outfielder Sam Fuld (at a fraction of Johnson's cost) makes Johnson expendable. He will be missed by many Cubs fans, who will recall his flair for the dramatic, perpetual hustle and spectacular defense in the outfield when called upon.

Catcher Koyie Hill, three years now a backup/fringe player, has won increased playing time over the season's final six weeks as starter Geovany Soto's sophomore jinx (it is, let there be no mistake, a jinx and not a slump: Soto has been extraordinarily unlucky this year, even when healthy: witness his .251 BABIP and 10.1 percent HR/FB rate this season) has wrought havoc. After the season, he will qualify for free agency as well, and as is the case with Johnson, many fans will root for him to return. The numbers, however, are not on his side: he provides narrowly replacement-level offense, without any special defensive skill, and next season, 24 year-old Steve Clevenger of Iowa will be ready to take his spot as a left-handed hitter at that backup catcher spot, and at approximately half the price. Hill's days are numbered.

That leaves only Rich Harden. Countless sources have mused about Hendry's impending decision on Harden, who will turn 29 during the offseason. Many question whether Hendry ought to risk paying an eight-figure salary to a pitcher with a daunting injury history, since Harden's 24 starts this year are already just one shy of being his highest total since 2004. However, Harden has made adjustments over the last two to three seasons, all but removing his slider and split-fingered fastball (which he used to throw about 30 percent of the time, according to fangraphs.com) from his arsenal. In their stead, he has developed one the game's premier straight change-ups, and as a result, has made 49 starts since the beginning of 2008. That number is higher than his combined number of appearances from 2005-07.

Even this argument overlooks the central truth about offering Harden arbitration, however: he would not accept. Chicago Tribune reporter Paul Sullivan estimated recently that Harden could command a contract on par with teammate Ryan Dempster's four-year, 52 million-dollar deal, signed with the Cubs last winter.

He would be foolish, then, to take a one-year pact at ten million or so. As long as the Cubs extend the offer, however, they get two high draft picks from whichever team signs Harden. It should be one of Hendry's easier decisions. An even easier one, though, will be letting Harden go once he refuses arbitration, rather than load up a rotation that already has 121.9 million dollars committed to it over the next three seasons, and that will need to make room very soon for young guns Andrew Cashner and Christopher Carpenter, each of whom are shooting up through the Minor Leagues.

Five Cubs under organizational control will also qualify for the arbitration process this offseason: Ryan Theriot, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, and Jeff Baker. Each has seen their role change or expand this season, and each has made positive contributions. Now, however, Hendry must decide whether the hike in pay each will receive allows them to remain viable and economical options.

Ryan Theriot tops the list, both in importance to the Cubs, and in earning power in his first year of arbitration. The starting shortstop has not made an All-Star team, but has done nearly everything else the Cubs could ask during his three years as a starter. His .289 career average, with 79 stolen bases, pairs with above average defense to make him a highly cost-effective option, even at what will likely fall between three and four million bucks next year. Theriot's on-base percentage has plummeted this season, from .387 in 2008 to .334 in '09. However, that drop-off is largely due to a decreasing walk rate, which will be remedied if the rest of the team can return to 2008 levels of offensive production and force pitchers to treat Theriot more carefully. Still, it would behoove Hendry to hedge by making certain that Theriot need not bat first or second next season.

Determining the capacity in which Carlos Marmol can best serve the Cubs from this point forward is the single most critical task Jim Hendry faces between now and Opening Day. Marmol is six-for-six in save situations since being named the permanent closer in mid-August, and during that time his ERA has dropped to 3.34. He has struck out 13 in 8 1/3 innings of work over that span. But he has also walked six, actually raising his strikeout-to-walk ratio to 1.38 on the season. That number is horrific, and represents only somewhat unfairly his career control issues. He has also benefitted from an obscenely lucky homerun rate as a percentage of fly balls allowed: 1.9 percent. The league average is closer to 14%.

Marmol's stuff is unquestionably closer-caliber, and even in this his worst season for strikeouts per nine innings, he is over 11.1. But if he continues to struggle with control the way he has the last two years, he will never be a consistent Major League reliever. Comparisons with comparable players (according to baseball-reference.com's similarity scores) who have recently reached arbitration indicate to me that Marmol will likely receive somewhere in the neighborhood of two million dollars in 2010. That is not a prohibitive cost for the Cubs; Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times believes the organization has already tabbed Marmol as its closer for next season.

But with two-time NL saves leader Jose Valverde and underappreciated, underrated Atlanta closer Rafael Soriano (3.55 career strikeout-to-walk ratio, almost double Marmol's 1.81) ready to hit the open market, the financial cost of keeping the young right-hander may be nothing to the opportunity cost of not signing either of those two far superior options. With a pair of cash-strapped, prospect-rich franchises (Tampa Bay and Milwaukee) looking to retool their bullpens in efforts to contend next year, Hendry would do well to capitalize on a primed market and move Marmol to make room in the pen.

Angel Guzman is less daunting an issue than Theriot or Marmol. His numbers this year have been stellar, and he would be very lucky to crack seven figures in salary next year. Jeff Baker, too, will remain cost-efficient, at around 1.3 million for next year.

Sean Marshall is a less important cog this offseason than he might have been last year. Now a reliever first and a starter second, Marshall filled the role of lefty specialist admirably for much of the first half. His role next year is in serious doubt, however, with the arrival of the cheaper and more versatile Tom Gorzelanny making him less valuable. If John Gaub impresses in camp the way I anticipate he will, or if the Cubs add an alternate option in the role of left-handed reliever through another avenue, Marshall will likely be moved sometime over the winter.

Moving and Shaking

Once the players whose fates are somewhat in limbo for next season have been dispensed with, Hendry's focus will turn to the rest of the league. The crop of free agents-to-be is thinner than it has been in at least three years, so the Cubs cannot afford to rely on that market to fill all of their needs.

Outfield defense has been a major Achilles' heel for the 2009 Cubs. To that end, and to that end only, they should look to trade Milton Bradley. Bradley's supposedly cancerous impact on the clubhouse is not a serious concern, nor is his supposedly subpar offensive season: in spite of his occasional and overblown struggles, he leads the team in OBP. Rather, Bradley must be moved mostly because of Kosuke Fukudome.

Fukudome struggled at the plate in the second half of 2008, but his defensive contributions in right field more than covered the difference: in 168 games in right for the Cubs over two seasons, he has contributed 16.8 runs of defense beyond what an average player would bring, according to fangraphs.com. In center, however, Fukudome has cost Chicago 8.6 runs in 113 games. In all, the difference between having Kosuke in center and having him in right is about three wins over the course of a season, in terms of defense alone, and assuming his offense stays constant in either case (in fact, this last assumption is not quite true: ESPN.com figures put Fukudome's OPS as a center fielder at .843, while as a right fielder the number is .761, a disparity of some 82 points).

Trading Bradley would allow Fukudome to move back to right where he belongs, and could open the door for expansion of defense and on-base whiz Sam Fuld's role, or an outside acquisition whose defensive prowess could take pressure off Alfonso Soriano in left. In return, the Cubs might ask a team to give them only one good prospect, in addition to accepting seven to nine of the 21 million dollars remaining on Bradley's current three-year deal. The Yankees are an ideally-suited trading partner, with aging outfielders Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady becoming free agents after the season.

As stated above, Marmol could well be next to go, and Hendry could choose to get very creative in dealing him. If Tampa Bay shows interest in Marmol (and there would be no reason for them not to, given that he will come at a fraction of most closers' costs), Hendry could choose between two courses: he could try to squeeze two of Tampa's abundant blue-chip prospects, or he could angle for Rays left fielder Carl Crawford.

Crawford, who will turn 29 next August, is a speed demon and multi-faceted offensive threat. He has 357 career steals, and just as importantly, a success rate of about 82 percent. In an era when the stolen base attempt is not a statistically sound risk unless it is successful at least three quarters of the time, Crawford's ability to pile up thefts without also recording 20 outs per season is invaluable. It translates to the outfield, too. Crawford is an above average defender in both left and center fields.

Moreover, Crawford has a modicum of power: double-digit homeruns in five of the last six seasons, and eight in 2008 despite missing 53 games due to a thumb injury. Perhaps most encouraging, his 44 walks this season are already a career high: if Crawford can reach base at anything close to his current .360 clip (.333 lifetime), he is a truly dangerous weapon in the leadoff spot.

Despite all of these positive signs, Tampa is widely considered to be shopping Crawford. Sports Illustrated notes that top outfield prospect Desmond Jennings is ready to contribute at the big-league level in 2010, and Crawford's 10 million-dollar price tag for next season is daunting to the small-market Rays. On the Cubs side, he seems not only economical by comparison to the deal Chone Figgins will command as a free agent, but perfectly suited to their needs: Crawford becomes a free agent after 2010, at which point the Cubs can cut him loose and hand the center field job off to 2009 first-round pick Brett Jackson, or try to re-sign him.

With the outfield in place, Hendry may look to make changes to the infield as well. To help cover Milton Bradley's sunk cost, along with Crawford's 10.5 million obligation (he receives a five hundred thousand-dollar assignment bonus if traded), he could look to trade Derrek Lee, to the opposite side of the same side of town as Bradley. The Mets have Carlos Delgado and his ancient bones coming off the books this winter, and rather than bid themselves up on second-rate free agent first sackers like Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche, New York may look to fill the hole via trade.

If they do, Lee's 13 million dollar salary for 2010 may look extremely inviting, as it would likely take 10 just to land Johnson or LaRoche. Lee's resurgent 2009 season, in which he has thus far recorded 31 homers and 96 RBI, makes him priced to move this winter. He has a no-trade clause that the Cubs would have to convince him to waive, but if he did, the Mets would likely pay his full salary and pass back to Chicago a pair of highly-rated prospects.

Into the void, then, would step Jake Fox. Fox will be 27 for the majority of 2010, and never figures to be any better a Major Leaguer than he will be next season. His salary doesn't figure to exceed half a million bucks, either, which makes him extraordinarily efficient.

Defense is a concern for Fox. So is plate discipline. He has walked just 5.9 percent of the time this year, and swings at about 37.5 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. It's safe to assume, however, that he would see lots of strikes in 2010, were he to be dropped into the third spot in the lineup, ahead of a fully healthy Aramis Ramirez. Furthermore, he will spend the winter being hounded by Cubs coaches to be more patient at the plate, and to improve his fielding of grounders, regardless of the role they envision for him for next season.

Assuming the Cubs have a little bit of wiggle room under new management to add payroll, this is the stage of the offseason at which they ought to get really aggressive. The Lee move would be made because his replacement is immediately available; the Marmol deal, to leverage a league-wide misconception into organizational gains, and to settle the outfield (and leadoff hitter) situation by acquiring Carl Crawford; and the Bradley deal, apart from appeasing the fans and media who have so vilified him, would assuage legitimate concerns over Chicago's outfield defense and create some payroll flexibility.

Now it's time to consider moves Hendry could make strictly to fill holes already in evidence on the 2009 squad.

The most glaring such deficiency has been the awful performance of the back of the Cubs' bullpen. In particular, Cubs closers have gone just 35-for-52 in save chances, according to mlb.com, an inexcusable stat that must be remedied. To do so, Hendry has two choices.

Jose Valverde has just about all of the intangible things one looks for in a closer. He has postseason experience, with Arizona in 2007. He can ratchet his fastball up to 99 miles per hour. He wears his emotions on his sleeve, and intimidates hitters with a game face unmatched among active pitchers. He also strikes out three times as many men as he walks, and his career save percentage is close to 85.

Rafael Soriano, of the Atlanta Braves, has none of those qualities. His 21 saves so far in 2009 are already a career high, and he has never appeared in the playoffs. His quiet demeanor and a collection of nagging injuries have kept him out of the limelight, but his strikeout rate of 12.14 per nine innings pitched, and his tremendous ability to avoid walking people, makes him poised to become a star closer during the second half of his career. He'll also play free agent third fiddle to Valverde and Detroit fire-baller Fernando Rodney, all of which make him fairly cheap.

Finally, with the bullpen set and the lineup nearly settled, Hendry will have one last chance to make a splash before Spring Training. The loss of Lee and Bradley, despite their being replaced by the slugging Fox and Crawford (don't forget, he's no big bopper, but Bradley has hit fewer HR than has Crawford this season), will create somewhat of a dearth of power through the heart of the order. Only one uncertain spot on the diamond remains for Chicago.

The Florida Marlins do not like to pony up big bucks, to anyone. This has been a central operating tenet of the franchise for years. It is the reason Miguel Cabrera is a Tiger, Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell are Red Sox, and Derrek Lee is a Cub. That is a brief set of examples. According to SI, though, another could soon be added to the list. Second baseman Dan Uggla beat Florida last season in an arbitration case, thus earning a 5.35 million-dollar deal for 2009. Florida, the magazine says, is afraid that Uggla will again be awarded a substantial raise, and could trade him rather than pay him as much as seven million next year.

If he goes, there is no defensible reason that he should not go to Chicago. Jeff Baker has been a fine player, but he would be just as well off in Florida, who would gladly take a player of his caliber to replace the far superior Uggla, provided he costs what I estimate will be about one-fifth of what Uggla would. Package Baker, Marshall, and (for instance) Minor League right-hander Jay Jackson, and the Cubs could acquire Uggla in the blink of an eye.

Uggla has all manner of things going for him. He will be a free agent after 2011, just in time to make way for the triad of middle infield prospects the Cubs hope to see that season. He looks on track to hit 30 homers for the third straight season, and has reined in a strikeout rate that had become excessive during 2008. He has walked more times (81) this year than he ever had before, and still has 29 games remaining. His fielding at second base is slightly above average, and his career speed score (a comprehensive statistic measuring all dimensions of speed as an offensive asset) of 3.9 belies his low stolen base success rate.

Moreover, he hits in cavernous LandShark Stadium, which indicates that his power numbers may actually be significantly deflated. Interestingly, even after adjusting for the teams who call each park home, and for league factors, Florida's home park also has the highest strikeout rate of any big-league field. Uggla could expect to hit 15 percent more homers on the basis of hitting at Wrigley, and on top of that, he could eliminate anywhere from seven to 10 percent of his strikeouts.

Role Definition and Spring Competition

Those moves should leave Hendry with a set of 25 Major League-ready players and a group to spare, and with the ides of February may come a greater sense of how it will all fit together. Rather than provide more long-winded analysis, here I will simply set forth the roster as I see it on Opening Day 2010:

Lineup

Crawford- cf (10.500)

Fukudome- rf (13.000)

Fox-1b ((0.500))

Ramirez- 3b (15.750)

Uggla- 2b ((7.000))

Soriano- lf (18.000)

Theriot- ss ((3.500))

Soto- c ((0.600))

Rotation

Lilly- lhp (12.000)

Zambrano- rhp (17.875)

Dempster- rhp (12.500)

Wells- rhp ((0.500))

Samardzija- rhp (1.600)

Bullpen

Soriano- rhp ((7.500))

Guzman- rhp ((1.000))

Gaub-lhp ((0.400))

Stevens- rhp ((0.500))

Caridad- rhp ((0.500))

Gorzelanny- lhp ((0.500))

Patton- rhp ((0.500))

Bench

Clevenger- c ((0.400))

Fuld- of ((0.500))

Blanco- 2b/ss ((0.500))

Hoffpauir- 1b/of ((0.500))

Fontenot- 2b/3b ((0.500))

40-man Roster

Scales- util

Cashner- rhp

Carpenter- rhp

Berg- rhp

Colvin- of

Vitters- 3b

Adduci- of

This team's payroll would be in the neighborhood of 132 million bucks, providing about six million for the dumped salaries of Bradley and less-than-utile utilityman Aaron Miles. That leaves payroll flexibility, if Ricketts is indeed willing to expand his payroll next season, for a key mid-season acquisition. It is an ambitious and delicate undertaking. But if successfully executed, it could be well worth it next October.