Last-Minute Trade Scenarios for New York Knicks' No. 4 Pick
With the No. 4 overall pick in the 2015 NBA draft, the New York Knicks have their highest selection since 1985, and they'd be wise to explore all of their options.
If the draft goes as expected in Bleacher Report's latest mock, the Knicks could realistically be looking at Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow and Willie Cauley-Stein as potential options. All three fill major needs, but trading down could go even further toward getting this rebuilding project kick-started.
Given that the Knicks are building around Carmelo Anthony, who's already in his 30s, it would make sense to look at players who can make more immediate contributions. That doesn't mean mortgaging the future for short-term impact, but bringing in an experienced player heading into his prime could be a great compromise.
Salary is a concern—one of the key benefits of building through the draft is the rookie wage scale—but with the cap expected to increase once the new TV deal kicks in in 2016, the Knicks could actually end up with an established veteran who'd be a steal in that new context. As it stands, they are projected to have roughly $27 million to spend in this summer's free agency period.
Adding a future pick and shedding salary would be welcome benefits of a trade scenario, especially if New York can achieve that and still make a selection in this year's lottery. Let's take a look at the best last-minute trades the Knicks could opt for with the No. 4 pick.
Though he may be undersized for the triangle offense, acquiring Ty Lawson of the Denver Nuggets would give the Knicks a player who would easily be the best starting point guard they've had in years. He'd make a nice second scoring option behind Carmelo Anthony, having averaged 16.5 points per 36 minutes for his career, with a 56 percent true shooting percentage, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Free agency could then be used to find more complementary options on the wing and at center.
Unless D'Angelo Russell falls to No. 4, Lawson would be better offensively than any other other point guard the Knicks could realistically acquire this summer, including the likes of Mudiay, Rajon Rondo and Reggie Jackson.
Defense is where Lawson has his major flaws. The Knicks have struggled to contain opposition point guards for as long as can be remembered, and he's not going to do much to fix that. Instead, his size would make him another liability on that end of the floor.
On his own, Lawson probably isn't worth it—Mudiay has the potential to be just as good for a better price. However, if the Denver Nuggets are also willing to throw in Kenneth Faried and take on Jose Calderon's contract to sweeten the deal, the trade starts to look a lot more appealing.
Faried would not only provide incredible athleticism and upside, but his presence at forward would also allow Carmelo Anthony to work inside more often without having to worry about guarding bigger opponents on the defensive end. This would be especially useful if the Knicks also added someone who can spread the floor at center. A move like that could be invaluable to the Knicks if it gets Melo back to his 2012-13 form.
Assuming Calderon and his $7.4 million salary for 2015 are taken by the Nuggets, the trade would leave the Knicks with $17 million to spend in free agency—enough to make a run at the likes of Greg Monroe, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews to fill additional holes. When the cap increases again in 2016, they can look to take bigger steps toward becoming a serious contender.
In this scenario, the Nuggets would be acquiring the No. 4 pick to pair with their current No. 7 pick. Giving up two key starters would be a steep price to pay, but the right selections could help them effectively press the reset button.
Alternatively, a more conservative option on both sides would be for the Nuggets to swap picks with the Knicks, giving up a young prospect to sweeten the deal. According to Sam Smith of NBA.com, Jusuf Nurkic heading to New York could be a possibility in such a trade.
Due to NBA rules, the Knicks must make a selection in this year's draft, so unless they are swapping picks a trade would have to be made after the fact, with the Knicks selecting for the Nuggets in a handshake deal.
While Lawson would provide an offensive upgrade for the Knicks, Eric Bledsoe would offer a more well-rounded package, with particular emphasis on the defensive end.
Bledsoe was good enough for the Phoenix Suns last season to convince them to trade away Goran Dragic. But according to Chad Ford of ESPN, the presence of Brandon Knight could make him available on the trade market.
Such an opportunity would be great for the Knicks. They'd pick up a player with enough upside to grow into an All-Star in the Eastern Conference, with the insurance of knowing he's already a quality NBA player as it stands. Swapping the pick for Bledsoe would essentially cut out the risk of selecting a promising prospect who isn't guaranteed to work out at the professional level.
In two years as a starter in Phoenix, Bledsoe has averaged 18.3 points, 6.2 assists and 5.3 rebounds per 36 minutes, along with an impressive 1.7 steals. He knows how to distribute, and his contributions on the boards and defensively are far above most of his counterparts.
Offensively, though he's not the best shooter, Bledsoe uses his ridiculous strength and athleticism to his advantage, putting up a 54 percent true shooting percentage for his career, according to Basketball Reference.
This payoff would come at a cost, of course. Bledsoe is scheduled to make $13.5 million in 2015-16—a full $10.2 million over the expected salary of the No. 4 pick—and is inked for $57 million over the next four years.
That is by no means a bad contract for a quality point guard with so much potential, but it has to be understood that trading for Bledsoe means giving up cap flexibility as well as the pick itself.
According to Sean Deveney of Sporting News, the Suns would also be willing to throw in the No. 13 pick to move up to No. 4, which would elevate the trade to no-brainer status for the Knicks. That could give the Knicks a realistic shot at the likes of Myles Turner, Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre, all of whom could be fantastic as role players.
Ultimately, the move would leave the Knicks with roughly $15.2 million to spend in free agency, which could increase to $18.2 million if Calderon is waived with the stretch provision and $22.6 million if they managed to ship him in the trade. Again, that would be enough to go after one or two additional starters on the open market.
Instead of trading their pick for a quality veteran, New York could opt to simply drop down a few spots and acquire a future pick and/or cap relief in the process.
A perfect partnership in achieving this could be the Detroit Pistons, who are interested in trading up from the No. 8 spot, according to Terry Foster of the Detroit News.
In return, the Pistons can offer a future first-rounder and potentially swap Calderon's contract for Brandon Jennings', which expires at the end of next season.
Jennings is making $8 million in 2015-16 (not much more than Calderon's $7.4 million), and is more likely to be salvaged as a decent role player at this point in their respective careers. Inefficient as he is, we are still talking about a former lottery pick, although his recent ruptured Achilles tendon is cause for concern.
The additional first-rounder for next season—which could very well be in the lottery if Detroit doesn't improve significantly—would be huge for New York, which has already traded its own pick as part of the Andrea Bargnani trade in 2013.
Of course, the big X-factor for the Knicks here is who drops to No. 4. If Russell, Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns is available, they need to keep the pick, but if not, moving down to No. 8 isn't too much of a downgrade. If they're lucky, they'll still have a shot at defensive force Cauley-Stein to fill their need at center.
Final Thoughts
What all of this highlights is that the Knicks are in a particularly flexible position and can take a number of different routes on draft night and still piece together a successful offseason.
Unless one of the top three prospects falls, the Knicks should be comfortable in trading the pick. Ideally, they'd be acquiring Bledsoe—the best player realistically available—but moving down in the lottery and picking up a starter from the Nuggets, or a future pick from the Pistons, could be useful, too.
Keeping the pick could also work out. Choosing between Winslow, Mudiay and Cauley-Stein, New York at the very least would end up with a long-term starter.
Whatever happens, we can expect draft night to be as eventful as ever for New York. It's a huge moment in the context of this rebuilding project, and they need to get it right to avoid being bottom-dwellers for much longer. The pressure is most definitely on, but there are plenty of reasons for Knicks fans to be optimistic about the future.
Salary information courtesy of Spotrac.
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