Big Ten Football: Predicting Conference's Top 2015 Stat Leaders
The college football season is still more than two months away, but anticipation for the 2015 campaign is already building. That holds especially true in the Big Ten following the momentum built by the conference in last year's bowl season.
And while teams like Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and even Michigan have plenty to look forward to in the coming months, there are also several individual players with high expectations for 2015. Never has the Big Ten seemed so loaded with potential first-round NFL draft picks, nor has it possessed so many players capable of lighting up scoreboards and box scores alike.
With that in mind, here are my predictions for which Big Ten player will lead each major statistical category in 2015. Taken into account are the players' past performances, upcoming schedule, offensive/defensive systems and projected offseason development.
Passing Yards: Christian Hackenberg
1 of 10
Although Connor Cook returns to Michigan State after posting a Big Ten-best 3,214 yards in 2014, there may not be a player in the conference expected to make a bigger jump in the coming year than Christian Hackenberg. After being named the league's top freshman in 2013, Hackenberg saw his numbers dip in his sophomore season, as he endured an astonishing 44 sacks behind a depleted Nittany Lions offensive line.
But despite the number of times he was knocked down in 2014, the 6'4" 236-pounder still managed to throw for 2,977 yards on the year, the second most in the league behind Cook. Hackenberg should see a big boost to that number with just a little help up front, and Penn State head coach James Franklin anticipates his signal-caller will be receiving just that.
"It stunts everybody's development when you're struggling up front," Franklin said during spring practice. "We're real pleased [with the offensive line]. Those guys have been awesome. I could go on and on about a number of these guys, the improvement they've made, how dramatic it has been, almost to a man, to every single guy there that has really made some really good strides in so many different areas."
If that's the case, look for a big jump for Hackenberg, who ESPN.com's Todd McShay currently projects to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft.
Passing Touchdowns: Connor Cook
2 of 10
While Hackenberg should see his passing totals climb in 2015, leading the league in passing touchdowns will be a tall task after throwing for just 12 scores in 2014. Cook, meanwhile, returns to Michigan State after throwing 24 touchdown passes in his junior season, the second-most in the Big Ten last year.
As for the player who threw the most TD passes in 2014, that would be Ohio State's J.T. Barrett, who is far from guaranteed to reclaim his starting status after his fractured ankle in last year's regular-season finale paved the way for Cardale Jones to lead the Buckeyes to the national title. Whether it's Barrett, Jones or Braxton Miller who starts for Ohio State in the upcoming season, the Buckeyes will undoubtedly possess a potent offense, but they will see plenty of their scores come by way of the rushing game, as well.
That won't necessarily be true in East Lansing, where Cook will be the star of the show in a backfield that otherwise lacks experience. The 6'4", 220-pound signal-caller won't be short on red-zone weapons, either, with Macgarrett Kings Jr. and Josiah Price expected to be his top targets.
Cook and Ohio State's starter—whomever it winds up being—will both be threats, but for now, Cook is the safest bet to throw the most touchdowns in the Big Ten in 2015.
Rushing Yards: Ezekiel Elliott
3 of 10
After rushing for more yards in a three-game span than Washington State and Wake Forest each did in the entire season, Ezekiel Elliott burst onto the scene last postseason with a stunning stretch that included 696 yards and eight touchdowns. The junior running back doesn't figure to be slowing down anytime soon, either, as the Buckeyes will return four of the five starters who comprised what was one of the country's best offensive lines by the end of last season.
On top of that, Elliott is now at full strength after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a fractured wrist that never fully healed during Ohio State's national title run. If the 6'0" 225-pounder was capable of doing what he did while only being able to carry the ball with just one arm, imagine what he'll be able to do with two.
Las Vegas, too, expects big things from Elliott, with Bovada (via Odds Shark) listing him as the favorite to win the 2015 Heisman Trophy at 6-1 odds. In order to do that, Elliott will likely have to continue on the upward trajectory he rode through last winter, but there's no reason to believe the St. Louis native won't do just that.
With no shortage of stars emerging in head coach Urban Meyer's offense, there will only be so many yards, carries, receptions and touchdowns to go around in Columbus. But expect Big Ten defenses to receive a steady dose of Elliott, who has already established himself as one of the country's best.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Rushing Touchdowns: Corey Clement
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Replacing a Heisman Trophy finalist in Melvin Gordon will be no easy task, but Corey Clement has already shown flashes of being a standout running back in the Big Ten. Playing in Gordon's sizable shadow, Clement still rushed for 949 yards and nine touchdowns in 2014, making him a top-10 running back in the league by either measure.
With Gordon now in the NFL, Clement will be the undisputed star of the Wisconsin backfield, and his numbers from a season ago could conceivably more than double. As opposed to balanced offenses like Ohio State and Michigan State, the Badgers still rely predominately on running the ball, a philosophy that won't change with the arrival of head coach Paul Chryst.
That could make the 5'11", 217-pound Clement a threat to win the Big Ten rushing title, although at the moment, Elliott is simply too good to bet against. When it comes to touchdowns, however, the Badgers' reliance on the ground game should work in Clement's favor, as Wisconsin's starting running back has led the league in rushing touchdowns in five of the past six seasons.
Receptions: DaeSean Hamilton
5 of 10
Outside of Hackenberg, there may not be a player who will benefit more from an improved Penn State offensive line than wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton, who established himself as the Nittany Lions' go-to target in 2014. As a redshirt freshman, Hamilton recorded a Big Ten-best 82 receptions, adding 899 yards and two touchdowns in his debut season.
With a better offensive line blocking for his quarterback, there's no reason to believe Hamilton won't continue to lead his league in receptions, as he'll look for his yards and especially touchdowns to make a steady climb. Rutgers' Leonte Carroo is likely the biggest threat to Hamilton's receptions crown, but the senior Scarlet Knight won't have the benefit of playing with a quarterback as talented as Hackenberg.
If Penn State's line improves as expected and Hackenberg plays like the No. 1 overall pick that prognosticators expect him to be, Hamilton should benefit in a big way. The 6'1" 211-pounder has already shown the ability to be the prototype of a possession receiver, and he will only expand his game in 2015.
Receiving Yards: DaeSean Hamilton
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Although Carroo is the Big Ten's leading returning receiver after totaling 1,086 yards in 2014, Hamilton's development and Rutgers' unsure quarterback situation could be enough for the Nittany Lions wideout to close the gap. Having tallied 27 more receptions than Carroo did a year ago, Hamilton has proven himself to be a more reliable target, but he will have to do more with his opportunities to lead the Big Ten in receiving yards in 2015.
Hamilton, himself, has even stated as much.
"I want to be able to stretch the field vertically and be an all-around threat," Hamilton said in April, via Greg Pickel of PennLive.com. "I want to be the person to make that play, to have someone the offense can rely on when it needs to get going."
Given the talent he put on display in his first season of college football, there's no reason to think Hamilton isn't capable of doing just that.
Receiving Touchdowns: Michael Thomas
7 of 10
There may simply be too many balls to go around to expect much from any one Ohio State wide receiver statistically, be it's not hard to envision a season in which Michael Thomas becomes one of the country's top red-zone weapons. The nephew of Keyshawn Johnson, Thomas showed ability similar to his uncle's a season ago when it came to high-pointing balls, as he emerged as the Buckeyes' most reliable target during their national title run
Recording a team-high 54 receptions for 799 yards and nine touchdowns, the 6'3" 210-pounder showed a knack for making the big play in his sophomore season after redshirting in 2013. Of returning Big Ten wide receivers, only Carroo caught more touchdowns than Thomas, who has an innate chemistry with former high school teammate Cardale Jones.
Should the strong-armed Jones win the Buckeyes' starting job this offseason, that could mean a big boost in numbers for the Los Angeles native. Thomas has already stated recording 1,000 receiving yards as one of his goals for the upcoming season, which would likely include plenty of trips to the end zone for No. 3.
"His ceiling is where he sets it," Ohio State wide receivers coach Zach Smith said of Thomas this offseason. "It's really limitless."
Total Tackles: Mason Monheim
8 of 10
Entering his fourth season as Illinois' starting middle linebacker, Mason Monheim has shown a knack for bringing down ball-carriers on a consistent basis. Last year, the 6'1" 235-pounder recorded 111 tackles on the year, the seventh-most in all of the Big Ten.
The conference's top returning tackler, Ohio State's Joshua Perry, will likely see his numbers decline with the emergence of Darron Lee and Raekwon McMillan, while Mike Hull, Damien Wilson, Cole Farrand and Jake Ryan have all moved on to the NFL. That leaves Maryland's Sean Davis as the only other returning Big Ten player who ranked ahead of Monheim in tackles last season, and it will be difficult for the cornerback to replicate his 115 tackles from a year ago.
And then there's the fact that Monheim plays for the Fighting Illini, whose defense could likely find itself on the field more than they'd like to in 2015. That could provide plenty of opportunities for Monheim to rack up tackle totals, regardless of if they're coming in winning or losing efforts.
Sacks: Joey Bosa
9 of 10
There are plenty of reasons to believe that a drop in statistical production will occur for Joey Bosa, who didn't record a single sack in any of Ohio State's three postseason games at the end of last season. The reality is that opposing offenses were shifting their attention to the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, daring another Buckeyes defensive lineman to make a play.
And then there's the reality that Bosa is already a near-lock to be a top-five pick in 2015 and may want to take plays off rather than risk injury. That same thing happened in 2013 with Jadeveon Clowney, who still wound up being selected first overall in 2014 despite a drop in production from his sophomore to junior seasons.
But the fact of the matter is that Bosa is simply too talented to bet against after a sophomore season that saw the 6'6" 275-pounder record 13.5 sacks, the most of any player in the Big Ten. The Fort Lauderdale, Florida, native insists that he won't spend his junior season preserving his perceived draft stock as he sets his sights on improving as a player.
"I'm not really thinking about it much," Bosa said of his draft stock last spring. "I have my goals set, and it’s just to get better and be a great team again this year. I feel like if I go out and work every day, everything will fall into place."
Interceptions: William Likely
10 of 10
After posting a Big Ten-best six interceptions in 2014, William Likely returns to Maryland looking to pick up where he left off in his stellar junior season. It wasn't just the interceptions, but what Likely did with the ball that was also impressive last year, as he returned two of his six picks for touchdowns.
With Sean Davis (eight pass breakups) on the other side, opposing offenses will have to pick their poison when it comes to passing against the Terrapins secondary. With his playmaking ability, quarterbacks may opt to avoid Likely's side of the field, but his nose for the ball is simply too much to ignore.
Ohio State's Vonn Bell (six interceptions in 2014) and Eli Apple are also strong candidates to lead the league in picks, especially considering opponents will likely be playing from behind and passing plenty against the Buckeyes. But Likely is the best bet of the three as he looks to end his college career on a high note in College Park.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
