NBA Free Agents 2015: Ranking Top 5 Players at Every Position
Conclusion of the 2015 NBA Finals still got you down?
Well, here are some position-by-position free-agent rankings to get you smiling again.
Free agency is indeed almost upon us, and the process by which it unfolds starts with the most talented names. They are the players whom teams, both incumbent and otherwise, are waiting on before moving forward.
Lower-end and mid-level guys are signed later. The best of the best are the first—not to mention the most expensive—dominoes to fall.
That, in essence, is the importance of these rankings. They're a glimpse into which players will be targeted first at every position.
Last season's statistics shape the ensuing hierarchy more than anything, but future value is also taken into account. We use last season's numbers along with player reputations, health and age to decide who among this summer's free agents will be the most productive next year.
Every free agent is eligible to make this list—even the perceived formalities who won't think about signing with another team.
Unless your name is Draymond Green, positional placement will be determined by where most of a player's minutes were spent. If a free-agent-to-be started games at power forward but played more minutes overall at center, he will be classified as a center.
Simple enough? Good. Let's rank.
Point Guards
1 of 5
5. Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.3 steals, 42.6 percent shooting
It's amazing how much impact one season can have on a free agent's stock.
Had 2014-15 never happened, Rondo would likely have entered the offseason as the top available point guard. But his four All-Star selections (three appearances) don't mask the fact that he is a stylistic dinosaur.
Point guards are no longer supposed to strictly dominate the ball. The NBA is a pace-and-space league that values versatility. Rondo's playmaking chops still have a place in the Association, but his nearly nonexistent three-point stroke and 34.9 percent spot-up clip do not.
4. Patrick Beverley, Houston Rockets (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 38.3 percent shooting
Patrick Beverley? Ahead of Rondo? Surely, this guy jests.
Except he doesn't.
Beverley isn't going to light up the scoreboard or pilot a premier offense. He's not a conventional point guard. But he's sheer energy on the defensive end, and his 38.1 percent conversion rate on catch-and-shoot three-pointers makes for a nice complement to other ball-dominant perimeter players such as James Harden.
Or, you know, Jordan Clarkson and Kobe Bryant. Just saying.
3. Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 43.4 percent shooting
Jackson ranks as one of the most confusing free-agent cases.
On the one hand, his talent is obvious. He's the perfect candidate to headline a drive-and-kick-heavy offense that surrounds him with three or four shooters at all times.
Yet on the other hand, he has a bit of Rondo in him. He has never shot 34 percent from long range over an entire season, and he put in just 34.7 percent of his looks from outside 10 feet last season.
Then again, on the other, alien-esque third hand, Jackson flashed improvement during his 27-game stint in Detroit, burying 45.2 percent of his spot-up treys. He also found nylon on 36.4 percent of his long-range missiles between March and season's end.
2. Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 42.2 percent shooting
Knight is the future of NBA point guards. There will be floor generals who do what he does better, but he's a backcourt tweener able to shimmy between either guard spot.
Trot him out at point guard, and he'll get into the lane and finish at the rim or slingshot passes to the outside. He can initiate pick-and-rolls, and his quick hands ensure he won't ever be a demonstrative minus on the defensive end.
Play him at shooting guard, and he won't balk at functioning away from the action. He knows how to move without the rock and drilled 39.3 percent of his standalone threes in 2014-15.
Egotistical politics won't come into play when asking him to cede ball control, either. His time in Phoenix has been nothing if not evidence of his willingness to play different roles at different times.
As Knight said while on SiriusXM Radio, per Bright Side Of The Sun's Dave King: "I enjoy playing with Eric [Bledsoe] because he's such a great talent, and he's not a selfish player. He's very, very unselfish. He's just trying to make the right play, trying to win."
1. Goran Dragic, Miami Heat (Player Option)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 50.1 percent shooting
Speaking of point guards who won't play shooting guard for long stretches at a time without pouting, Dragic is the hottest free-agent property at his position.
Good luck finding an offensive chief better at operating in transition. Dragic sacrifices rebounds for leaking out on the break, injecting immediate pace into any offensive attack.
And while he clearly doesn't love working off the ball—see the end of his time in Phoenix—he's a catch-and-shoot assassin. More than 16 percent of his total shot attempts came as standstill treys last season, of which he nailed a blistering 37.8 percent.
Basically, Dragic is a point guard who can fit any system. Red carpets will be rolled out for him in free agency accordingly.
Shooting Guards
2 of 5
5. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 44.8 percent shooting
Achilles injuries are no joke. Chauncey Billups was never the same after his run-in with the Achilles injury bug. Nor was Elton Brand. Bryant is in that same boat.
But Matthews is still one of the top shooting guards available. The 2 remains a relatively barren position in the NBA, and while Matthews will never have the same value on the defensive end, his offensive game isn't predicated upon explosion or even working off the dribble.
More than 46 percent of his total shot attempts came as spot-up three-pointers last season, of which he hit 38.6 percent. Whatever version of Matthews comes to head—severely limited or surprisingly normal—can be valuable to the right team.
4. Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.1 blocks, 43.6 percent shooting
Green has hit his stride in San Antonio but remains one of those players who can be plugged into any on-court model.
His offensive game consists of zero ball domination. Nearly 54 percent of all his looks last season were catch-and-shoot opportunities, and he'll keep the rock moving if his shot isn't there.
There isn't a better defensive wing on the market not named Kawhi Leonard. Opponents shoot at below-average clips when being guarded by Green, and he blocks a ton of shots for a 6'6" shooting guard/small forward.
Over the last 30 years, only five other players standing at 6'6" or shorter averaged one block while appearing in 80 games: Charles Barkley, Vince Carter, Ron Harper, Michael Jordan and Clarence Weatherspoon.
3. Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks (Player Option)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.9 steals, 44.5 percent shooting
Somehow, after leading the Mavericks in scoring for 2014-15, Ellis' stock has failed to rise—even inside Dallas.
If Ellis opts out of his contract, which would pay him $8.7 million next season, the Mavericks are most likely going to let him walk, according to ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon. Some other suitor will be open to giving him a raise, but it says a lot that Ellis isn't entirely in favor with his own team.
Such is life for ball-dominant guards who cannot stroke threes these days. Ellis has cracked 35 percent from long distance throughout a season just once in his career, and his off-ball conversion rate (32.4 percent) was actually worse than that of Rondo last season.
2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat (Player Option)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 47.0 percent shooting
Wade caused quite the stir when, during ABC's NBA Finals broadcast, he began an anecdotal tale with "When I was in Miami..."
Was? As in past tense? As in "Buh-bye, Heat?"
Truthfully, this was probably a verbal slip and nothing more. But the Heat and Wade are at an impasse over the future Hall of Famer's next contract, as previously detailed by Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick.
At 33, Wade isn't going to front a championship contender on his own. When healthy, though, he still fills up the stat sheet. Expect plenty of teams to gauge his interest in abandoning the only franchise he has called home in the NBA.
1. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 46.2 percent shooting
Assuming neither the Heat nor another team goes off the rail and offers Wade max money, Butler is the only max-level shooting guard who will reach free agency. Heck, depending on how fondly you view Dragic, Butler may be the only max-caliber guard, period.
Eschewing the Bulls' extension overtures in October and betting on himself worked out well for Butler. DeMarcus Cousins, Harden, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook were the only other players to clear 20 points, 5.5 rebounds, three assists and 1.5 steals last season, and at just 25, Butler now holds face-of-the-franchise clout.
Sure, as a restricted free agent, it's entirely inconceivable he'll end up anywhere other than Chicago. But the fact that his free agency is a non-issue says everything about this rapidly rising star.
Small Forwards
3 of 5
5. Luol Deng, Miami Heat (Player Option)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 46.9 percent shooting
All those years of logging 38-plus minutes per game under coach Tom Thibodeau in Chicago have really messed with Deng's hardwood mojo. He doesn't hold the same value as a defensive stopper—though opponents did shoot at below-average clips against him—and the Heat deployed a mediocre offensive unit with him as the third option.
Still, Deng will always work his butt off. He grabs a decent amount of rebounds, saw his three-point rate climb as an ancillary offensive device and is as durable as players come—insofar as "durable" refers to those who will labor through bumps, bruises and breaks.
4. DeMarre Carroll, Atlanta Hawks
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 48.7 percent shooting
Carroll is due for a raise from the $2.4 million he earned in 2014-15. A big one.
"The Hawks want to keep Carroll, but his price has been driven up," Sporting News' Sean Deveney wrote. "With his defense and versatility, one league exec estimated his next deal at more than $15 million per year."
Excuse me while I go…acknowledge that this is totally possible.
Carroll projects as a super-high-end version of Danny Green. He can hang tough with the opposing team's best perimeter scorer, has secondary playmaker capabilities and shot 41.1 percent on spot-up threes in his contract year.
This was all while serving as a third, sometimes fourth, option within a passing-packed Hawks offense. The right team may be willing to bet $15 million annually that an even more prominent role translates into even more prominent stat lines.
3. Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 46.6 percent shooting
There's admittedly a chance that Harris' stock is receiving an artificial boon as a featured option on a rebuilding Magic team. But even on a contender or playoff hopeful, he has promising three-and-D appeal.
Harris' career-best 36.4 percent clip from downtown came under career-high volume (3.5 three-point attempts per game). He was also even more efficient as a standalone gunner, banging in 38 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys.
Things get iffy—read: wildly inefficient—when he falls in love with pull-up jumpers, but he's quick off the dribble and shot 64 percent inside the restricted area last season.
Best of all, at 6'8", he can log minutes at both forward spots. And as the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors will attest, positional versatility is a beautiful thing.
2. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.3 steals, 47.9 percent shooting
Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard is officially a superstar.
We entertained that notion after he won the 2014 Finals MVP award, but it's an unassailable fact now that we know just how valuable he is to the Spurs.
They were the net-rating equivalent of the Milwaukee Bucks (plus-one) when he was off the floor during the regular season. When he was in the game, they outscored opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions, a margin that would have ranked first in the league, beating out even Golden State's mark of 11.4.
That 11-point swing is enough to land Leonard top dollar as a restricted free agent. It's also enough to guarantee that San Antonio won't let him go.
1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 48.8 percent shooting
"I feel confident because I'm the best player in the world," James said after Cleveland's Game 5 loss to Golden State in the NBA Finals, per CBS Sports' James Herbert. "It's simple."
Indeed, it is simple. James is the best player in the world, so he's the best free agent—not just at small forward, but in general.
Those who might begin to believe otherwise were reminded of his superpowers during an epic playoff run. James carried a hobbled Cavaliers team to the NBA Finals, even willing them to two victories against a historically good Warriors crew.
No, the 30.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists he averaged through 20 playoff contests aren't sustainable. But they don't need to be.
In what many considered a less-than-LeBron season, James still averaged at least 25 points, six rebounds, seven assists and 1.5 steals for the seventh time of his career. No NBA player has ever done that more than once.
James is expected to decline his player option and enter free agency this summer, at which point he will promptly re-sign with Cleveland, according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. Yet you can still imagine the feeding frenzy that would ensue if his case became anything less than a formality.
Power Forwards
4 of 5
5. Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 46.7 percent shooting
Yes, Middleton is listed at 6'7". And yes, the Bucks run positionless lineups that have him defending guards and forwards alike. But 68 percent of his minutes came at power forward last season, so that's why he's here among other power forwards.
Being indefinable is part of Middleton's charm, as well. He can play shooting guard and small forward in addition to power forward, and he doesn't need a concrete role on the offensive end. Milwaukee uses him as both an off- and on-ball scorer.
Two-way players are always expensive, and Middleton will be no different. He led the Bucks in win shares, and though they have the right to match any offer he receives, those offers will clear eight figures annually with ease.
4. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, 47.6 percent shooting
Millsap is in a tough spot. He is a two-time All-Star and has developed into a top-flight stretch 4. He's also 30 years old and about to enter the latter half of his career.
Gauging his market value is subsequently difficult, if not impossible. He may or may not be max-contract material.
Here's something that should sway you in the affirmative: Just one player has averaged at least 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, three assists and 1.5 steals in each of the last two seasons. And that one player is Millsap.
3. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors (Restricted)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks, 44.3 percent shooting
It doesn't matter whether you think Green will fit in anywhere or he's just a product of Golden State's system. He'll net max or near-max money in restricted free agency.
Plus, to be blunt, if you think Green is the product of some system, you're wrong. The Warriors' switch-heavy defense and super-duper-small offense is more the product of him and his ability to play center and defend all five positions.
Consider this: Through 21 playoff tilts, the Warriors posted a negative net rating only when they were without one player. That one player wasn't Stephen Curry, or Klay Thompson, or even Finals MVP Andre Iguodala.
That one player was Green.
2. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 43.4 percent shooting
Like James, Love is expected to opt out of his contract, per Windhorst. What happens from there is sort of an unknown, despite Love himself repeatedly declaring his intent to return.
Injuries tend to diminish free-agent paydays, and Love underwent season-ending shoulder surgery less than halfway through Cleveland's postseason push. But his stock isn't damaged; he's still a max player.
Not even his diminished production changes things. Love is one of the most complete offensive forwards in the game. He can pass, post up and shoot threes, and there isn't a team in the NBA that wouldn't have gladly accepted 16.4 points, 9.7 assists and 2.2 assists from its third option.
1. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 blocks, 46.6 percent shooting
One year ago, Love would have been billed as the top available power forward. Alas, a smaller role in Cleveland, coupled with Aldridge's all-out craziness in 2014-15, opened the door for this scenario.
Aldridge is the alpha dog of free-agent power forwards, and it's not even close at this point. He's every bit the mid-range savant that he's been for the last nine years, but his improved three-point shooting takes his value to another level.
He made more threes last season (37) than through his first eight combined (24), and he did so at a respectable 35.2 percent clip. That expansive range doesn't just make him an unequivocal stretch 4; it suggests that his offensive potency will age well—no small potato considering he'll turn 30 in July.
Most executives believe Love and Aldridge are the biggest free-agent flight risks, according to Windhorst. After nine years in Portland without a Western Conference Finals berth, you can easily make the case that Aldridge is more flighty.
Which, to be honest, is good news for the Mavericks and Spurs.
Centers
5 of 5
5. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 49.6 percent shooting
Pistons president and coach Stan Van Gundy deserves all the high fives.
Monroe wouldn't have cracked this list if most of his minutes came at power forward. But, despite starting him at the 4 and accounting for franchise cornerstone Andre Drummond at the 5, Van Gundy still managed to deploy Monroe at center 60 percent of the time.
Interested free-agent suitors should follow the mustached head honcho's lead. Monroe's game is obsolete at the power forward position. More than 89 percent of his shot attempts came inside eight feet of the hoop in 2014-15, and he shot under 35 percent whenever he journeyed outside that range.
Averaging a double-double is still worth eight figures annually, to be sure. Especially when you consider Monroe posted a 26.8 player efficiency rating at the center position, according to 82games.com.
Elite offenses aren't really built around lumbering 5s anymore, though. And what Monroe lacks on offense, he doesn't make up for on defense.
Eighty-three players contested four or more shots at the rim per game last season. Monroe was among them and ranked 72nd in opponent field-goal percentage. So while he's good as gone now that Detroit has Ersan Ilyasova, there's no telling what he's worth or where he'll end up.
(Cuts to footage of Phil Jackson and the New York Knicks inexplicably offering Monroe a max contract.)
4. Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets (Player Option)
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.8 blocks, 51.3 percent shooting
Lopez should be higher. He's one of the few big men around which offenses can be tailored.
Thirty-five percent of his shot attempts came outside 10 feet during the regular season, so he's not your typical ground-and-pound, pace-killing tower. He has immense pick-and-pop potential because of that range, and if you place him beside an elite point guard with healthy ankles (sorry, Deron Williams), his offensive totals stand to skyrocket.
Even Lopez's shot blocking has improved. His block rate since 2012-13 (5.0 percent) ranks 11th among all players to see at least 3,000 minutes of action during that time.
But health remains a concern. Lopez was limited to 17 games in 2013-14 and just five in 2011-12 due to various injuries.
Foot issues, like the ones Lopez has suffered from, can shorten the careers of big men. He hasn't put together consecutive healthy seasons since 2009-10 and 2010-11, which curbs his stock considerably.
3. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 2.2 blocks, 71 percent shooting
Jordan has missed exactly two games over the last five years, and he appeared in every contest in each of the last four seasons. Teams cannot buy that type of durability.
Well, technically, they can this summer, when Jordan enters unrestricted free agency. But head coach and president of basketball operations Doc Rivers himself has said the Clippers will offer Jordan a max contract, per Arash Markazi of ESPN. Poaching him, even if he's interested in a short-term deal, won't be easy.
Or, for that matter, cheap. As ProBasketballTalk's Dan Feldman wrote:
"Jordan is absolutely worth a max contract.
Sure, he's an awful free-throw shooter and doesn't score much away from the rim. But he's elite at creating basketball's most-efficient shots (dunks) and grabbing offensive rebounds. Being great at one or two skills can be more important than being slightly above average at many.
"
Though his defensive value can be overstated, Jordan is a first-rate rebounder and shot-blocker. Actually, make that a historical rebounder and shot-blocker.
Only one qualified player has ever recorded a rebounding percentage of 24 and block percentage of five in the same season: Jordan. And he did that this past season, just in time to pad his next contract with all the zeroes he can get.
2. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.0 blocks, 51.2 percent shooting
Duncan—who spent 64 percent of his time at center last season—is the 39-year-old cyborg who just keeps going and going.
Smart people believe he'll return for another go-round, because he will. It will be a complete and utter shock if he retires now, when he just made All-NBA Third Team and became the first player in league history to average at least 13.5 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two blocks while seeing less than 30 minutes per game.
Hence why he's here, as the second-best free-agent center, in front of players who are more than a decade his junior.
1. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 blocks, 49.4 percent shooting
Let's not bore each other with the details of why Gasol is ranked No. 1. He's the best center available, and not even Duncan himself is flirting with the idea of displacing him.
There is only one topic to discuss: Where is Gasol going to sign?
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reports the big man is leaning toward a return to Memphis. But he also says no decision has been made.
Gasol's combination skill set—which includes playmaking, post-ups, jump shots and top-tier defense—isn't readily available at the center position. The Grizzlies will have competition for his services.
And that, in turn, means Gasol will have a flurry of max-contract offers from which to choose.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
