San Francisco 49ers: Predicting the Final 53-Man Roster

With the final minicamp for the San Francisco 49ers over and done and training camp not beginning until the end of July, it’s time to start predicting what the final roster will look like when everything is said and done.

The 49ers will have to reduce their current 90-man roster to 53 men before the regular season starts, so more than 40 percent of the players who call themselves 49ers today won’t be in uniform when the team takes on the Minnesota Vikings on September 14.

Predicting a full 53-man roster at this point is nothing more than a shot in the dark. There a lot of position battles to still be fought, and the team's hierarchy likely doesn’t yet know for sure who will win these battles. Trying to predict which cornerbacks will make the roster, for example, is guessing before all of the facts are in.

What we can do, however, is sort the roster into three basic buckets. Some players are essentially guaranteed to make the team, some are on the bubble and some are essentially warm bodies for training camp. By shifting players into these three buckets, we can get a better idea of which spots are up for grabs and who has a chance at making the final roster.

There are really only three ways a player can have a roster spot guaranteed at this point in time:

• Firstly, they can earn their spot with great play on the field. Joe Staley is one of the best offensive tackles in the league, and there’s no way someone of his talent would find themselves cut before the season began.
• Secondly, they can earn their spot thanks to their draft status. Arik Armstead will make the team regardless of how he performs in training camp because the 49ers invested a first-round pick in him, which represents a commitment to develop him for several years.
• Finally, they can earn their spot thanks to their contract. Cutting Colin Kaepernick would be a disaster for the 49ers at this point; his $10.4 million base salary became fully guaranteed when he remained on the roster on April 1, according to CSN Bay Area. Cutting him would significantly hurt San Francisco’s cap situation.

Obviously, players can qualify in more than one of these categories. Eric Reid, for example, is a recent high draft pick with a contract that would be difficult to cut who has played well on the field. As long as they qualify on at least one method, they'll be listed as a lock here.

Last year, this method predicted 37 locks to make the roster. Of that group, Eric Wright retired before the season began and C.J. Spillman was a surprise cut at the end of training camp. The other 35 made the final roster.

This time around, the method finds 41 locks for the roster, which leaves 12 spots up for grabs. Let’s go position by position and see how things are shaping up as we enter training camp.

Quarterbacks

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Locks (1): Colin Kaepernick
On the Bubble (2): Blaine Gabbert, Dylan Thompson

Colin Kaepernick is a lock for multiple reasons. Not only is his contract too unwieldy to move, but he’s also far and away the best quarterback on the roster. If the 49ers had a promising up-and-comer or a seasoned veteran behind Kaepernick, maybe you could begin to construct an argument for moving him before his contract had fully guaranteed in April, but that simply isn’t the case.

It’s a make-or-break season for Kaepernick; another poor season could see the 49ers drafting a quarterback to get that promising young rookie. Cutting Kaepernick before April 1, 2016 would save the 49ers $9.4 million against the salary cap, according to Over the Cap. He’ll need to earn his roster spot for next season with good play this year.

It’s very difficult to see more the team keeping more than two quarterbacks this year, considering the quality of the backups. Blaine Gabbert is a failed starter, and we haven’t seen enough of him in San Francisco to say that he’s put his disastrous seasons in Jacksonville behind him. Dylan Thompson’s an undrafted free agent out of South Carolina who needs time to work on his footwork and accuracy and is more likely to end up on the practice squad than the main roster.

Then again, with only Gabbert as competition, who knows? Thompson might show up and surprise everyone. The smart money goes with Gabbert at this point in time, simply because you don’t want your primary backup to be someone with no NFL experience. However, the situation is at least open to question.

Roster prediction: Kaepernick, Gabbert

Running Backs

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Locks (4): Bruce Miller, Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush, Mike Davis
On the Bubble (2): Kendall Hunter, Trey Millard
Camp Fodder (2): Kendall Gaskins, Jarryd Hayne

One of the few teams that still regularly use a fullback, the 49ers will hold onto Bruce Miller despite his recent no-contest plea to disturbing the peace, reported by the Sacramento Bee.

This is a charge that has dropped from spousal battery, which was the initial report on the case back in March. 

Now, without legal issues hanging over his head, Miller’s status as one of the best fullbacks in football is clear. He’s a dying breed, and perhaps the 49ers’ new offense will phase the fullback out over the next few seasons. For now, however, the most-used fullback in football will remain part of the game plan.

Replacing Frank Gore is a difficult task. Carlos Hyde, as last year’s second-round pick, and Reggie Bush, as a high-profile free agent, should handle most of the snaps this season. Hyde will likely get the first- and second-down snaps, with Bush handling primary duties in obvious passing situations. Mike Davis also earns a roster spot thanks to his draft status.

That leaves Kendall Hunter. Hunter missed all of 2014 with an ACL tear, which is why he’s not listed as a lock. From camp reports, including this one from Matt Barrows, Hunter looks fine and almost fully recovered from the tear. That, coupled with the lack of a need to use a spot on a backup fullback with Miller’s legal issues settled, should see Hunter make the roster as the primary backup to both Hyde and Bush.

If Miller’s situation becomes more complicated, you could see Trey Millard taking Miller or Hunter’s roster spot, but it’s highly unlikely they’d keep two fullbacks on the roster.

Jarryd Hayne is an exciting training camp story, but the former rugby league star will need time to adjust to playing American football and is highly unlikely to make the roster coming out of his first camp.

Roster Prediction: Hyde, Miller, Bush, Hunter, Davis

Wide Receivers

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Locks (3): Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, Bruce Ellington
On the Bubble (4): Quinton Patton, Chuck Jacobs, DeAndrew White, Jerome Simpson
NFI (1): DeAndre Smelter
Camp Fodder: (4): Dres Anderson, DiAndre Campbell, Issac Blakeney, Mario Hull

Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith will rediscover their chemistry from Baltimore. Working together as the possession receiver and deep threat for Joe Flacco in 2011 and 2012, Boldin and Smith averaged a combined total of 110 catches, 1,752 yards and 11 touchdowns.

By comparison, Boldin and Michael Crabtree last season combined for close to the same amount of yards but on more than 40 more catches. Replacing Crabtree with Smith will hopefully bring an explosiveness that has been missing from the 49ers offense.

No other receivers on the roster have really had a chance to show their stuff yet. Bruce Ellington is still a moderately high draft pick from 2014, so he’s a lock because he deserves another year to show what he can do. He showed flashes of potential, and that’s all the 49ers really have at the position right now.

DeAndre Smelter would be a lock as well if not for his ACL injury. If the 49ers aren’t planning to use him right away, they might be best served by stashing him on the non-football injury list, opening up a roster spot for a player who can contribute right off the bat.

That leaves multiple spots open for what should be an entertaining camp battle. Quinton Patton has been a fan favorite for a few years, succeeding in preseason, but he never really got a chance to perform under Jim Harbaugh. Perhaps Patton will have more chances to prove himself under Geep Chryst.

Jerome Simpson had some success in Cincinnati and Minnesota but missed all of last season when the Vikings released him after he violated the substance-abuse policy, reported by USA Today. He’s another potential vertical threat, though he needs to keep his nose clean off the field to make the roster.

Chuck Jacobs impressed back in the 2013 preseason and earned a role on the practice squad as an undrafted free agent out of Utah State.  In last year’s preseason, he tore his ACL and missing the entire season. He’s a forgotten name because of that, but keep an eye out for him—he might well explode in this year’s preseason and earn a slot.

The 49ers also have four undrafted free agents on the roster. Of the four, the standout is DeAndrew White from Alabama. He’s struggled with injures over his career, but he’s athletic with the ball in his hands and willing to go over the middle to make contested catches. White has suffered knee injuries, fractured toes, separated shoulders and pulled hamstrings, but when healthy, he’s an NFL-caliber player.  If he can stay healthy, he might well grab a slot.

Cam Inman, the 49ers beat writer for the San Jose Mercury News, lists Dres Anderson, another UDFA out of Utah, in his projected roster. He is a nice-sized target with decent speed and route running, but he has terrible hands.  His drop rate over the last two seasons was 18.6 percent, according to NFL.com. Unless that number improves dramatically, he won't make the roster.

Roster Prediction: Boldin, Smith, Ellington, Patton, White

Tight Ends

Michael Zito/Associated Press

Locks (4): Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald, Blake Bell, Garrett Celek
PUP (1): Derek Carrier
Camp Fodder (3): Rory Anderson, Asante Cleveland, Xavier Grimble

Alright, let’s get this out of the way: Vernon Davis will make the final 53-man roster.  If they were going to move on from Davis, they would have done it before free agency began. Everything else here is secondary to that fact.

But what has Davis done recently to deserve a roster spot? He was horrendous last season, grading out as the sixth-worst tight end in football according to Pro Football Focus. He dropped six of the 32 catchable balls he had, which was the worst drop rate among tight ends. His run blocking, normally so good, was also very poor last season.

Davis was a Pro Bowler in 2013, which is the kind of form the team is counting on him returning to. However, Davis is 31 years old, and that’s beyond the point where tight ends typically begin to fall off. Maybe 2014 was a one-year blip; maybe it was Davis falling off a cliff. Hopefully, he’ll be healthier and more successful this season—his history with the team is arguably worth giving him the benefit of the doubt. Regardless, he’s definitely one of the more important players to keep an eye on as the regular season approaches.

Derek Carrier’s foot injury might be a blessing in disguise—the 49ers are unlikely to keep five tight ends on the active roster, and Carrier might have been the odd man out. However, he showed good things last season before he got hurt, as did Garrett Celek and Vance McDonald. Everyone in the group missed time with injuries last year, but all the non-Davis tight ends still showed more than Davis in 2014.

Blake Bell, as a fourth-round pick, gets a guaranteed roster slot, while Rory Anderson, a seventh-rounder, does not. Anderson might be destined for the practice squad.

Roster prediction: Davis, McDonald, Bell, Celek

Offensive Line

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Locks (6): Joe Staley, Erik Pears, Brandon Thomas, Alex Boone, Marcus Martin, Daniel Kilgore
On the Bubble (4): Ian Silberman, Andrew Tiller, Joe Looney, Trent Brown
Camp Fodder (5): Patrick Miller, Dillon Farrell, Justin Renfrow, Ben Gottschalk, Sean Hooey

It’s almost impossible to imagine the offensive line having as many struggles as it did last season, when they were forced to start seven different combinations. Daniel Kilgore and Anthony Davis, nominal starters, ended up playing fewer snaps than their replacements, Jonathan Martin and Marcus Martin. Both Martins had fairly terrible seasons, though Marcus’ season can be excused for his being a 20-year old rookie who had missed the end of training camp with injuries.

Marcus Martin should be better in 2015 and will be in an interesting battle with Daniel Kilgore for the starting center role. The loser should become the primary backup guard, with Brandon Thomas moving up into the starting lineup to replace Mike Iupati.

The replacement for Anthony Davis is a little harder to figure out. The 49ers have been using Erik Pears there during minicamp, but that might be because Alex Boone missed the non-mandatory OTAs and was working back into the team during the mandatory minicamp. The 49ers could either start Pears at tackle or Boone at guard, or they could put Boone at tackle and the loser of the Martin-Kilgore battle at guard. There’s the chance they could slide a rookie into the right-tackle position, but those situations are the most likely.

Trent Brown has been getting rave reviews, and it’s been said that he “doesn’t look like a seventh-round pick” multiple times, including in this piece by Matt Barrows. It's up for debate whether the 49ers would rush a seventh-round pick into the starting lineup, but it at least bodes very well for him in regard to making the main roster, which is far from a guarantee for a seventh-round pick.

Joe Looney might have the inside lane for another roster slot, being a veteran with experience in the system playing all the interior line spots. That would mean a little more had the 49ers not switched O-line coaches this offseason, but he’s still a known quantity at this point, which is useful.

Ian Silberman was the surprising sixth-round pick, and there’s been no talk about him during practices so far, so it seems as if Brown has surpassed him in the pecking order. Andrew Tiller got some first-team work ahead of Alex Boone while Boone was working his way back with the second team in minicamp and got plenty of snaps there during OTAs too, according to Cam Inman. That should at least keep him in the mix.

Roster prediction: Staley, Thomas, Martin, Boone, Pears, Kilgore, Looney, Brown

Defensive Line

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Locks (5): Arik Armstead, Glenn Dorsey, Ian Williams, Tank Carradine, Quinton Dial
On the Bubble (4): Darnell Dockett, Tony Jerod-Eddie, Lawrence Okoye, Kaleb Ramsey
Camp Fodder (2): Garrison Smith, Mike Purcell

Darnell Dockett not on the locks list? Strange but true.

Dockett, remember, missed all of last season with a torn ACL. He has not yet practiced with the team, as he continues to rehab. He’s also 34 years old, making it much tougher to come back from a major injury. His contract contains no guaranteed money, according to Over the Cap, so the 49ers can cut him without penalty.

If Dockett’s healthy, he’ll make the roster easily and get the lion’s share of first-team snaps in what’s likely to be a rotation at the position. It’s just far from fully clear that Dockett will be healthy. That’s something to keep an eye on as training camp continues.

The rest of the defensive line is filled with question marks. The leaders in snaps at the position were Justin Smith, Ray McDonald and Tony Jerod-Eddie last season, according to PFF. Smith and McDonald are gone, and Jerod-Eddie is not a lock to make the roster. It could be an entirely different set of players filling those roles in 2015.

Don’t expect first-round pick Arik Armstead to make an immediate impact. He’s a monster of a man, but he’s very much a work in progress. Expect him to be very slowly worked into the lineup. Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams could line up alongside Dockett as the starters when the season begins, with Tank Carrdaine and Quinton Dial being regularly rotated in. Don’t expect anyone to be like Justin Smith, staying in essentially the entire time. This will very much be a committee situation in 2015.

Jerod-Eddie will probably make the team again simply because he’s experienced, but he didn’t play that well last season. He provided a moderate pass rush, at best, finishing the season with no sacks and just one quarterback hit, according to PFF. He also struggled to bring down backs in the running game. The team might go with someone younger, such as last year’s seventh-round pick Kaleb Ramsey.

Is this the year former Olympic discus thrower Lawrence Okoye makes the main roster? Don’t overlook him, especially given he has spent the last two years under the tutelage of now-head coach Jim Tomsula. If he’s ever going to make the 53-man roster, this is probably his chance.

Roster prediction: Armstead, Dorsey, Dockett, Jerod-Eddie, Williams, Carradine, Dial

Linebackers

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Locks (7): Aaron Lynch, NaVorro Bowman, Michael Wilhoite, Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Phillip Wheeler, Eli Harold
On the Bubble (2): Nick Moody, Corey Lemonier
Camp Fodder (4): Marcus Rush, Shayne Skov, Desmond Bishop, Nick Bellore

The 49ers lose Patrick Willis and Chris Borland yet still end up with more roster locks at the position than last year. That’s what happens when you have no one facing a nine-game suspension or recovering from a nasty knee injury.

The return of a healthy NaVorro Bowman and a full season from Aldon Smith rank among the biggest reasons for optimism in the 2015 season. Bowman and Smith’s respective absences last season allowed their backups to get vital playing time.

Aaron Lynch is now the best returning member of San Francisco’s rookie class from 2014. His 2014 season got lost behind Borland’s amazing year, but Lynch was providing very solid pass-rushing prowess essentially from the word go. It would not be a surprise if he’s the listed as starter over Ahmad Brooks, who should be returning as well, since the 49ers did not decide to make him a salary-cap casualty.

Michael Wilhoite wasn’t as solid, but did manage to hold down the inside linebacker position as players all around him fell to injury. He’s arguably better suited as a backup than a starter, but he’s not terrible by any stretch of the imagination. He might be best served dropping into pass coverage more while Bowman handles the defense inside the box, and he’ll likely be removed when the 49ers go to dime packages anyway.

Eli Harold, the 49ers’ third-round draft pick, is my favorite pick of their entire draft class, even if he doesn’t have an obvious line into getting much playing time in 2015. As a free agent, the addition of Phillip Wheeler is quite attractive. The veteran served mostly as a reserve for Miami last season, but he played very well. He could rotate with Wilhoite, coming in during the base package and leaving for Wilhoite in the nickel.

That doesn’t leave many roster spots open. Corey Lemonier had a good 2013 but vanished last season.  That, plus the addition of Harold, makes his claim to a roster spot tenuous. Nick Moody, on the other hand, has gotten specific praise from Jim Tomsula, relayed by the San Jose Mercury News, and he plays at the more depleted position of inside linebacker. That might give him the edge.

Roster Prediction: Lynch, Bowman, Wilhoite, Smith, Brooks, Moody, Wheeler, Harold

Cornerbacks

Billy Hurst/Associated Press

Locks (3): Tramaine Brock, Shareece Wright, Chris Cook
On the Bubble (6): Dontae Johnson, Marcus Cromartie, Leon McFadden, Keith Reaser, Kenneth Acker, Mylan Hicks

The cornerbacks were recently covered in depth here.  In short, expect the three veterans to join two or three young players on the roster, but expect the young players to get more snaps than some of the veterans.

Tramaine Brock had a breakout season in 2013 before struggling with injuries in 2014. Assuming he’s back to full health, he has one of the starting slots locked down. Shareece Wright had much less success in San Diego, but his large contract isn’t something you give to someone who’s not making the team, so he’s essentially guaranteed a slot as well—hopefully, he gets passed by some of the younger players with more potential.

Chris Cook missed the second half of the season with a hamstring injury but looked solid when he was healthy. With so many young players on the roster, his veteran presence as a backup will likely be useful.

Jimmie Ward is listed with the safeties but probably locks down the nickel role.

As for the other slots, you have a free for all at the moment, with anyone on the roster having a reasonable chance of making the team or getting cut. The three cornerbacks from the 2014 draft—Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker—have very good shots of making the roster. Everyone’s getting shuffled in an out of the lineup. Who knows where anyone will end up?

Roster Prediction: Brock, Wright, Cook, Johnson, Reaser, Acker

Safeties

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Locks (5): Antoine Bethea, Eric Reid, Craig Dahl, Jimmie Ward, Jaquiski Tartt
Camp Fodder (2): L.J. McCray, Jermaine Whitehead

Unlike the cornerback position, the safeties seem fairly locked up. You have the two very good starters from last year in Antoine Bethea and Eric Reid. You have high draft picks in the last two years in Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt. None of them are going anywhere.

You could make an argument for or against Craig Dahl, and it’s true he wasn’t as successful as an actual safety last season. That’s not why he’s on the roster, though: Dahl is one of the top players the 49ers have on special teams. Seeing him on the field on defense is not a good look for the 49ers, but when he’s on special teams, he’s one of the better players at their disposal.

Inman again has a different name on the list—he has L.J. McCray beating out Dahl. However, McCray is a much worse player on special teams and didn’t get a chance to show anything on defense last year. Add in Dahl’s $880,000 in dead money—quite a bit for a bottom-of-the-roster player—and it should be clear the 49ers are happy with Dahl there.

Roster prediction: Bethea, Reid, Dahl, Ward, Tartt

Special Teams

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Locks (3): Phil Dawson, Bradley Pinion, Kyle Nelson
Camp Fodder (1): Corey Acosta

Now that Andy Lee has been traded, the special teams makeup seems fairly clear. Lee’s on-field performance should have given him another season in most cases, but Bradley Pinion’s high draft status also essentially guaranteed him a slot. At least the 49ers got something for Lee rather than outright cutting him, even if it’s just a 2017 seventh-round pick.

Phil Dawson, at age 40, is still fairly reliable, but the 49es are eventually going have to move on from him; he counts just $2 million against the cap this year but $4.1 million next season, according to Over the Cap. That replacement won’t be Corey Acosta, who was just signed as a camp leg to keep Dawson fresh.

Kyle Nelson is the only long snapper on the roster, so he gets a roster spot by default at this point.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.