Predicting the Next Wave of Max-Contract NBA Free Agents
Max contracts don't mean what they used to, and that makes predicting which players will sign them this summer harder than ever.
The concept of a max deal used to be simple: a four or five-year contract for 25, 30 or 35 percent of a team's salary cap. The years depended on whether the player was signing with a new team (four) or re-upping with his current one (five), and the percentage of the cap coincided with service time.
Guys with at least 10 seasons in the NBA are eligible for that whopping 35 percent cut.
The 2015 NBA free-agent frenzy will be unlike any we've ever seen because a rising salary cap means the best players—the ones who'd normally be pushing for those prototypical long-term max deals—might be better served to sign one-year agreements with player options so they can hit the market again when the cap spikes.
According to Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders, the cap for the 2015-16 season is projected to hit $67.4 million before spiking to $90.4 million for the 2016-17 season.
Knowing that, free agents like Jimmy Butler and especially LaMarcus Aldridge (more on him in a moment) can still shoot for maximum annual salaries. But neither is likely to sign one of those old-school maximum-length pacts.
What follows is our best guesses about who'll collect max cash this summer...and for how long.
Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
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Age: 25
Status: Restricted
Contract Prediction: Five years, $90 million with Golden State Warriors
"I’ll be here," Draymond Green told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News shortly after the Warriors secured their first NBA title in 40 years. "I love this group of guys."
Well, I guess that settles that.
Actually, Green sealed his fate sometime during the middle of his breakout campaign. As the Warriors ran roughshod all over the league, it became clear that he was vitally important to the monster the Dubs had built. His defense, rebounding, attitude and heart made him an on-court dynamo and a locker-room leader.
He became indispensable.
The Warriors will make a qualifying offer to Green at the first opportunity so they can retain their right of first refusal. From there, it's simply a question of whether they'll offer him a five-year max starting at approximately $15.8 million per season, or if they'll wait around to match a four-year offer sheet from another team.
Given Green's value and the sense in locking up key players at rates before the cap spike, it's easy to see Golden State offering him that fifth year right away.
Green made less than $1 million in each of his first three seasons, so even if he knows signing a short deal and re-entering the market later could net him more cash, seeing that true max contract laid out in front of him will be hard to pass up.
Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Age: 25
Status: Restricted
Contract Prediction: Three years, $50 million with Chicago Bulls
Butler is in the exact same situation as Green: restricted free agency with a likely five-year, $90 million offer coming from his current team.
The difference is that Butler, who already gambled on himself once by turning down a big extension last summer, seems likely to do it again.
According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, Butler is prepared to wait out the big money:
"Butler could sign a three-year offer sheet that guarantees him $50 million, but allows for a player option on the third year that could allow him to move into unrestricted free agency and re-sign for a five-year, maximum deal worth as much as $190 million. It is understandable why Chicago wants Butler locked into a five-year, $90 million max extension under the current salary structure, but that appears to be a deal Butler plans to pass on.
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If Butler goes through with the plan that Wojnarowski suggests is possible, he'll be in line for a payday far larger than Green—it's just that he'll have to wait a few years to get it.
The Bulls can, should and will match the three-year offer Butler seeks, so he's not going anywhere. But by playing the free-agency game down the middle like this (avoiding the uncertainty of a one-year deal and turning down the allure of long-term money before the pot grows), Butler can put himself in an optimal unrestricted situation a few years from now.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
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Age: 29
Status: Unrestricted
Contract Prediction: One year, $18.9 million (with a player option) with Portland Trail Blazers
See that photo up there? That's Aldridge thinking about $78 million, which is the amount of extra cash he can collect if he plays his free agency just right.
Aldridge is a nine-year vet, meaning he's eligible for a salary starting at 30 percent of the cap. But if he waits until next summer, when he'll have a full decade of NBA experience, he can collect 35 percent. Combine that bump with the rising cap in 2016, and he can make some real money by waiting to sign a multiyear deal.
Take it away, Daniel Leroux of SportingNews.com:
"Taking a one-year contract this summer would allow him to vault into the highest max bracket in 2016, a difference of almost $9 million over the same season’s salary if he takes his max with Portland this summer.
The gulf between those contracts is enormous, even for a millionaire NBA player. Aldridge can top out at a five-year, $108.8 million contract this year or play out a single-year deal to get a five-year, $168 million contract next summer. Including the one-year maximum salary deal, that’s a difference of more than $78 million dollars over the next six years.
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Aldridge turns 30 in July, which means he's approaching the age where his next long-term deal will be his last. Waiting a year to sign it, even when that year includes almost $19 million in salary, could be dangerous.
Injury, declines in performance, alien invasion that forces the NBA to fold—all those things could mean Aldridge never gets his max five-year deal in 2016.
But with so much extra money just sitting out there, a little patience is probably the best course.
Oh, and one other thing: This presumes Aldridge stays with the Portland Trail Blazers, which isn't certain by any stretch. Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher thinks there's a "very good" chance Aldridge stays put, though, and that's good enough for our purposes.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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Age: 23 (24 on June 29)
Status: Restricted
Contract Prediction: Five years, $90 million with San Antonio Spurs
We make certain assumptions about the San Antonio Spurs, one of which is the willingness of their core players to sacrifice money in the interest of preserving a contender-quality roster. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have all taken less money than they could have made on the open market to stay put, and their decisions have helped keep San Antonio in the thick of title races for years.
Kawhi Leonard is in a strange situation this summer in that he can get maximum money and still be viewed as a player who is making a sacrifice.
Like Butler and Green, Leonard can field offer sheets from other teams that would force the Spurs to match. And like those two, he has to consider the wisdom of inking a long-term pact that locks him into a salary structure that will make him underpaid when the cap rises.
He could go Butler's route, maximizing his earnings by signing a shorter deal now. But according to Ken Berger of CBSSports.com, Leonard plans to sign a big deal quickly, giving his team a bargain down the line and assuring himself maximum financial security: "The free-agent plan for the Spurs is to quickly agree on a five-year max deal with Leonard—'It will be a short conversation,' one person with knowledge of the dynamics said."
It's not every day a full max salary counts as a discount, but free agency is in a weird place this year.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
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Age: 30
Status: Unrestricted
Contract Prediction: One year, $18.9 million (with a player option) with Memphis Grizzlies
Marc Gasol is going to command max dollars this summer; the only question is how many years he's willing to commit to.
It's tempting to take his laid-back demeanor and loyalty to the Memphis Grizzlies as signs he'll want to ink a five-year deal quickly so he can settle in, focus on basketball and avoid another free-agency fiasco for a half-decade.
At the same time, Gasol has to be aware that the Grizzlies' core is aging. He's 30, Zach Randolph will be 34 in July, and Tony Allen is 33. Gasol's savvy, ground-bound game figures to age well, but it's harder to be confident about some of Memphis' other key guys. Sure, Randolph gets by with strength and smarts on the block, but how many power forwards not named Tim Duncan maintain elite production in their mid-30s?
The Grizzlies, as presently constituted, don't have a long window to contend.
Toss in the extra money Gasol can make when the cap goes up, and he has clear reasons not to tie his fate to Memphis for five years.
ESPN.com's Michael Wallace wrote, "Should Gasol choose the short-term deal this summer, he could be in line to earn as much as $162 million over five years on a new contract that would start during the 2016-17 NBA season."
Maybe Gasol's loyalty and faith in Memphis' ability to remain in contention will sway him to sign a long deal. But he has a lot to think about, and flexibility will be appealing.
LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age: 30
Status: Player Option
Contract Prediction: One year, $22.1 million (with a player option) with Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James doesn't technically fit as part of the next wave of max-contract stars because he's already riding the current one.
But because he makes so much money away from the court, and because he remains the league's undisputed best player, he can gamble on short-term deals for the rest of his career. He started the process last summer when he signed a one-and-one contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers (one guaranteed season with a player option for a second), and he can keep right on doing that in perpetuity now.
And in the process, he can assure he's always making the absolute max in every season.
Sign a max deal, opt out, sign another one. He'll never be locked in under team control, and as the cap rises every year, so will James' salary.
He'll be at the crest of the max-cash wave for years to come.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age: 26
Status: Player Option
Contract Prediction: One year, $18.9 million (with a player option) with Cleveland Cavaliers
Kevin Love knows about basketball mortality better than most 26-year-old stars, having played just 18 games in 2012-13 because of injury and then separating his shoulder in this year's playoffs.
He'll almost certainly opt out this summer, and Terry Pluto of the Plain-Dealer has a sense of what will happen next:
"Love's maximum salary for 2015-16 would be in the $19 million range, far more than the $16.5 million player option. So why take the option? The Cavs are expected to offer Love a maximum contract, worth an estimated $100 million for five years. Perhaps he takes that.
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That's logical, and Love's injury history will make him think hard about a long deal.
There's also the allure of playing for the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics, and after a rough season in Cleveland, maybe Love will want to be a top option someplace else.
Here's the thing, though: Love probably believes he has unfinished business in Cleveland in that he has to prove he's still a key player on a winning team. At the same time, his difficulties there make it unlikely he'll go for a five-year deal, even though injuries make that appealing.
A short-term max with an option, like James figures to sign, makes the most sense. And from the Cavs' perspective, giving up the max for a year or two will feel a lot less risky than paying $100 million over five seasons, even if that figure is slightly under the salary ceiling.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
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Age: 26
Status: Unrestricted
Contract Prediction: Five years, $109 million with Los Angeles Clippers
This is painfully simple: The Los Angeles Clippers can't replace DeAndre Jordan if he leaves because they're totally capped out. Using Jordan's Bird rights to retain him and go over the cap is the only way to avoid a gaping hole in the roster.
Because Jordan is unrestricted, the Clips can't match another offer sheet, so their only leverage is the extra year they can offer him.
Now, he could look around at four-year pacts elsewhere. And if he's convinced another team gives him a better opportunity to contend or that one of his Texas suitors gives him the proximity to home he may want, maybe he'll bite.
But the Clips figure to contend for a few more years, and $109 million is a lot more than the four-year, $81 million another team could present.
There's also the fact that coach and personnel chief Doc Rivers responded to questions about giving Jordan the max with "Yeah, I think I can say that," per Arash Markazi of ESPN.com.
Let's not overthink this one.
All salary information courtesy of BasketballInsiders.com.
