Will Cavaliers Get a Shot at Redemption vs. Warriors in Next Year's NBA Finals?
The spilled champagne hasn't dried from the Golden State Warriors' long-awaited championship celebration. LeBron James' fuel tanks haven't refilled from carrying the injury-riddled Cleveland Cavaliers to within two wins of the franchise's first title.
The dust from the 2015 NBA Finals could take days or even weeks to settle. The ramifications of that six-game battle of endurance will linger much longer than that.
But even with Golden State's 105-97 series-clinching victory still sitting prominently in each team's rearview mirror, there's no time to look back on what went right, wrong and everything in between. The basketball world—and the media that covers it—demands an unwavering focus on the future.
Not that these two teams should mind. While so much could change between now and next summer's championship bout, both of these clubs appear as early favorites to return to the game's biggest stage.
The Cavs, itching for a shot at revenge, have a full offseason to recover from a physically, mentally and emotionally draining series. The Warriors, world champs for the first time since 1975, have the summer for their young nucleus to grow and their front office to figure out what, if any, changes this roster needs.
Chances are that neither of these clubs will look the same when they open training camp in the fall. That's simply how the sports world operates, which uber-valuable Warriors forward (and restricted-free-agent-to-be) Draymond Green noted in March.
"This team right here, this team will probably never be together again," Green said, per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "That's just the nature of the business. One addition, one subtraction, this isn't together no more."
Changes are already visible on Golden State's side. Head coach Steve Kerr's lead assistant, Alvin Gentry, who helped the Warriors climb from 12th to second in offensive efficiency, is off to coach Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans. Former All-Star David Lee, who lost his starting gig and eventually his rotation spot, is likely to be moved over the offseason, sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
As for the Cavs, who could have as many as 10 free agents, their summer will be busy.
James can become a free agent by declining his $21.6 million player option for next season. That's a move he'll almost certainly make, though he probably only does it to circle back to Cleveland on another short-term contract that increases his salary.
Kevin Love holds a $16.7 million player option for 2015-16, and it's much harder to tell how he'll handle it. Multiple league executives think the Cavs will offer him a five-year max deal worth approximately $100 million, per ESPN's Brian Windhorst. But no one seems to have a feel for whether he'd actually sign it.
Love had a good first year in Cleveland but definitely not a great one by his standards. His scoring average (16.4 points per game) dipped as low as it had been since 2009-10, his 21.7 usage percentage was the second lowest of his career, and his first-ever playoff run was derailed by a dislocated shoulder in the opening round.
This probably isn't the best time to hit the open market, especially with the salary cap about to burst like a ruptured fire hydrant once the new TV money arrives in 2016. Staying in Cleveland would seemingly give him the best chance to win, and it might include a nine-figure contract.
If the Cavs can keep Love, it's going to cost them. On a lesser scale, the same could be said for Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova.
That's a tremendous team on paper, with both the top-heavy talent and depth Cleveland desperately needed in the Finals. If it's possible to keep this team together, the Cavs should do it. But owner Dan Gilbert will have to pay a heavy premium to bring everyone back.
Sources told Windhorst the Cavs have talked about their payroll possibly expanding "to between $100 million and $110 million for next season." And that doesn't account for the luxury-tax hit that Windhorst noted would be north of $75 million.
But with the 30-year-old James fighting against Father Time, it makes sense to try to capitalize on these championship chances. They won't be around forever.
"I didn't win a championship, but I've done a lot of good things in this first year back, and hopefully I can continue it," James said after Game 6, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt.
Can Cleveland continue it next season? All signs point to yes.
James owns the NBA's lesser half. He has five Eastern Conference championships in the last five seasons: this one with Cleveland, the previous four with the Miami Heat.
The East should be better next season. The Washington Wizards will have more experience. The Chicago Bulls could pack a lethal offensive punch under new coach Fred Hoiberg. The Atlanta Hawks can build off their momentum if they keep their 60-win roster together. The Toronto Raptors have a summer to address their defense and rebounding woes.
But the Cavaliers should improve, too.
Kyrie Irving seemed to get more comfortable in a sidekick role as the season progressed. The entire team had to adjust to a pair of major moves in January that brought in Shumpert, Smith and Timofey Mozgov. Those transactions changed Cleveland's fate and gave this team an identity that could work in the postseason.
| Before Jan. 9 | 19 | 17 | 105.3 (T-10th) | 105.5 (T-23rd) | Minus-0.2 (15th) |
| Jan. 9 and After | 34 | 12 | 109.6 (T-2nd) | 102.9 (17th) | Plus-6.6 (4th) |
Cavs coaches have all offseason to build the right game plan around this revamped roster, then a full training camp and preseason to implement it.
Not to mention James, Irving and Love can figure out how to better coexist. And that's a terrifying thought considering the Cavs outscored opponents by 12.6 points per 100 possessions with that trio on the floor.
The Dubs' challenge is different—harder in some ways but perhaps easier in others.
The Western Conference is a bloodbath. Seven of the eight playoff teams won at least 50 games. The Pelicans, the only playoff participant that didn't, have the league's best young player in Davis. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who just missed the postseason party, might have the best triumvirate if Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are all healthy.
The Warriors had a wild run of good luck with regard to injury and a favorable playoff draw. There are no comfortable matchups in the West, but Golden State surely didn't mind avoiding both the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers.
Golden State may not get half as many breaks next time around. And as difficult as this title run was, the next might be even harder. Since the Los Angeles Lakers three-peated in 2000-02, there have only been two successful title defenses (the Lakers in 2010 and the Heat in 2013).
"Repeats are, generally speaking, very difficult," wrote CBS Sports' Matt Moore. "That's exacerbated by the high level of competition in the Western Conference, with up to four legitimate title contenders annually."
That being said, there are reasons to believe the Warriors are capable of at least getting back to the Big Dance.
They didn't simply have a great season; they were historically dominant: 67 wins, double-digit point differential, 16-5 playoff record. They proved that it's possible to play with both super speed and a suffocating defense; that the shooting prowess of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson alone can short-circuit a defensive system; that frontcourt versatility is a vital piece of any next-generation puzzle.
"Golden State married the game-changing offense of the recent past with a defense that feels futuristic," wrote Sherwood Strauss. "... They did the unexpected with an unconventional approach. Now the league takes their lead, chasing after their spot."
And the Warriors won't be waiting for everyone to catch up.
This core is only getting better. Curry is 27 years old, Green and Thompson are 25, and Harrison Barnes turned 23 in May. Those four were the team's leaders in total win shares, and at least three of them should still be working toward their peak.
Kerr only has one season under his belt as an NBA coach. His debut couldn't have gone any better than it did, and the experience he added along the way will only help.
There are really no age concerns on the roster. Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut are both on the wrong side of 30, but their minutes are already being carefully managed. Leandro Barbosa is 32, but he'll only play a minor role if they bring him back in free agency.
The Warriors have no shortage of avenues to improvement. And they just completed a wire-to-wire run as the NBA's top team.
Cleveland and Golden State didn't arrive on the Finals stage by accident. Each was the cream of its respective conference's crop.
Without knowing what lies ahead, all we can say is the safe money is on these two teams separating themselves from the pack again next season.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
