NBA Free Agents 2015: 10 Best Bargain Buys on the Market
Little excites an NBA fanbase more than reeling in a big fish from free-agency waters.
But some of the best offseason work is the stuff that doesn't make the front page.
Finding a player who can outperform his non-rookie-scale contract is one of the most effective ways to successfully operate under the salary cap. The Atlanta Hawks bought low on DeMarre Carroll in 2013 and watched him blossom as a full-time starter on a 60-win team. The San Antonio Spurs helped their 2014 title team by snagging the likes of Boris Diaw and Danny Green on cost-effective deals.
The 2015 free-agent class should have no shortage of similarly bargain-priced buys.
For one thing, the group has more depth than top-tier talent. Also, any long-term deals signed this summer will only grow more valuable as the salary cap explodes with the new TV money in the coming years.
The 10 players on this list won't demand the same money or fill the same roles. Some will bolster their next teams' benches. Others will secure starting gigs. But no matter the job title, all have a good chance of playing above their pay grade.
They have been presented here in a descending ranking based on the overall impact they can provide. Past performance, future projections and versatility all helped set the order of these players.
10. Andrea Bargnani, C
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This won't be easy, but try to forget that Andrea Bargnani is a former No. 1 overall pick. The sooner you can stop seeing him as a draft bust, the easier it will be to realize he has plenty to offer to an NBA team.
Of course, Bargnani needs to stay healthy in order to display his intriguing skill set. That's perhaps the biggest question mark executives will need to mull over, since he's only played 137 games over the past four seasons combined.
But if the 7-footer can keep himself off the injury report, he's a tough cover for any defender. He's a 35.6 percent three-point shooter for his career, which is more than enough reason for a defense to spread out its coverage and challenge him beyond the arc. When he steps inside the three-point line, he can shred nets from the high post, find open teammates and create shots off the dribble.
His medical red flags are certainly concerning. His rebounding marks are ghastly for someone his size (career 4.8 per game). But teams will build their contract offers accordingly.
The New York Knicks want him back for the veteran's minimum, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post. Bargnani is a 15.0-points-per-game scorer for his career. If he's really playing for a salary that low next season, he could change a lot of opinions quickly about his value.
9. Wayne Ellington, SG
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There isn't a lot of mystery with six-year veteran Wayne Ellington. Teams that chase him in free agency should have a very good idea of what they're getting.
The former first-round pick is a specialist. But his specialty happens to be one of the most sought-after traits in today's pace-and-space game.
He's a knockdown shooter from distance. Only once has he failed to convert at least 37 percent of his long-range looks; in four of his six NBA seasons, he has buried more than 39 percent of his three-point tries.
Those percentages matter now more than ever. All four conference finalists ranked among the top five teams in three-point makes. The world champion Golden State Warriors finished second in threes and first in accuracy.
Ellington has a reliable skill that fits perfectly into this style of play. He also plays hard, competes at the defensive end and provides a positive locker room presence. It shouldn't take too much money to get him—he's already suited up for five different teams—and it won't take too long for his next employer to see the value in this investment.
8. Ed Davis, PF
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In some respects, Ed Davis is an NBA tease.
He wouldn't have been a lottery pick in 2010 without his impressive physical gifts (6'10" with a 7'0" wingspan, per DraftExpress). And he wouldn't keep ending up on lists such as this without his intriguing marks per 36 minutes (career 12.1 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks).
But he has stepped inside the lines for three different teams, and none have opted to give him a full-time starting role. His offensive range doesn't extend outside the paint, and he's not quite bulky enough to bang on the low post.
Still, the 26-year-old should have his fair share of suitors on the open market. He plays within himself (career-high 60.1 field-goal percentage this season), moves very well without the basketball and has the speed to chase stretch forwards around the three-point arc.
There's nothing comfortable about buying a five-year veteran who's still somewhat of a project. But Davis doesn't appear close to reaching his ceiling, and teams won't need to break the bank to get him.
"Davis will get a bump from the minimum this summer, but executives agree he should come in well below the midlevel," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe. "He's a good buy-low candidate—someone who could emerge as a solid third big man and start for a loaded team with the right personnel."
7. Aaron Brooks, PG
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The market won't treat Aaron Brooks as well as his numbers say it should. He's part of the reason why it won't, but so is the league-wide emphasis on analytics.
Brooks' shooting trigger is itchier than it should be for a career 41.5 percent shooter. He has developed a reputation as a bad shot-maker, which obviously isn't a label that would stick without him jacking up ill-advised looks.
The league doesn't see volume contributors the same way it used to. Rather than marvel at absurd scoring lines, executives and analysts dig deeper to see how those numbers were compiled. In Brooks' case, he'll be docked for his forgettable distributing stats (career 3.3 assists in 23.5 minutes per game) and subpar career player efficiency rating (13.8, below the league-average mark of 15.0).
But savvy decision-makers are quick to realize market inefficiencies. And high-quantity scorers such as Brooks could be one of them. He's too volatile to plug into a starting lineup, but his potent quick-strike attacks (career 17.2 points per 36 minutes) could be the perfect jolt to a contender's second team.
Brooks played this season for the veteran's minimum salary. He should collect more money next time around, but that shouldn't stop him from outperforming his pay rate once again.
6. Brandon Bass, PF
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Brandon Bass isn't the type of player to post gaudy stat lines on a nightly basis. The best season of his 10-year career came in 2011-12, when he averaged 12.5 points and 6.2 rebounds in 31.7 minutes per game.
Those aren't eye-popping numbers by any stretch. And since he celebrated his 30th birthday in April, it would be foolish to expect him to tally them now.
But the versatile forward is rock-solid. In seven of the past eight seasons, he has averaged at least 14.2 points and 7.0 rebounds per 36 minutes.
He's a workhorse on the glass, a comfortable mid-range shooter (career 45.7 percent shooting from 16 feet out to the three-point line) and a disruptive defender. His 250-pound frame is built to withstand a beating on the low block, and his quickness helps him make a defensive impact away from the basket.
There isn't any upside left with Bass—though his offensive arsenal could grow if he stretches his shooting range out to the perimeter—but that should be reflected in his price. If the Boston Celtics let him walk to free up more minutes for their young bigs, Bass could provide some immediate, affordable relief to a contender.
5. Brandan Wright, PF
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Brandan Wright isn't a self-sufficient scorer or a floor-spacer. His offensive production depends on the talent around him, and even when it's there, it's largely limited to point-blank looks.
That probably doesn't sound like someone built for the NBA's wide-open game. But Wright is actually equipped to thrive in that exact style.
With spring-loaded legs, a hawkish 7'4.5" wingspan (via DraftExpress) and tremendous mobility, Wright has everything needed to anchor the interior in a fast-paced game. He effortlessly plays above the rim at both ends, maximizing every offensive opportunity he has (career 60.6 percent shooting) and providing defensive insurance around the basket.
Teams aren't stressing the long ball solely for the additional point attached to that shot. They're also looking to spread out a defense and open up attacking lanes to the basket. A lanky, athletic big such as Wright is a great option to plug into those lanes. He sets solid screens, explodes out of them and finishes with force. At the other end, he's an intimidating defender opposing offenses have to locate at all times.
At 27 years old, it's hard to imagine Wright growing out of a reserve role. Throw in the injury problems he's encountered before, and it's safe to assume he won't draw top-dollar demand.
4. Rodney Stuckey, SG
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If Rodney Stuckey wasn't last summer's best value signing, he was near the top of that list.
Playing for a minimum salary, he emerged as one of the Indiana Pacers' best offensive weapons. He ranked second on the team in scoring (12.6 points per game) and third in total assists, despite only playing 26.4 minutes a night.
He set new career highs in field-goal percentage (44.0) and three-point percentage (39.0). His 15.4 PER was his best in three seasons, and his 12.2 turnover percentage was the third-lowest of his eight-year career.
The Pacers won't want to let Stuckey go. President of basketball operations Larry Bird made that much clear when he said, "We need guys like Rodney," via Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star.
Frankly, a lot of teams need players like Stuckey. He's a savvy veteran, a great spark plug for the second team and an aggressive attacker who can pull offenses out of a rut. But as a 29-year-old with a career 30.5 three-point percentage, he might slip through the free-agent cracks. Again.
3. Bismack Biyombo, C
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Bismack Biyombo aces the eye test for an ideal defensive anchor. The 22-year-old packs 245 pounds on his chiseled 6'9" frame and sports a monstrous wingspan of prehistoric proportions (7'6", per DraftExpress). He complements his otherworldly athleticism with an outstanding motor, and he might be the fastest center in the league.
Slowly but surely, he's figuring out how to put his natural gifts to work. This season, he had the fourth-highest block percentage of the 274 players who cleared the 1,000-minute mark (6.3 percent). In each of the last two years, he has tracked down at least 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. The Charlotte Hornets were 3.1 points per 100 possessions better when he played than when he didn't.
"He's very bright," Hornets coach Steve Clifford told NBC Sports' Dan Feldman in January. "The reason why his plus-minus is so good is he does what we do. He knows what's supposed to happen, and he actually helps other guys play, too."
Biyombo needs serious seasoning at the offensive end—if he improves his hands, he could be a great pick-and-roll screener—and he hasn't even averaged 20 minutes per game in either of the last two seasons.
But his ceiling is sky high, and his price tag may not be. The Hornets will have the right to match any offer he receives, but their frontcourt already features Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller, Noah Vonleh and the recently acquired Spencer Hawes.
2. Kosta Koufos, C
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Kosta Koufos was a starting center before the Memphis Grizzlies traded for him in June 2013. After backing up Marc Gasol for the past two seasons in the Grindhouse, Koufos looks ready and eager to earn a starting gig somewhere.
"It's no secret within team circles that Koufos...wants to be an NBA starter," wrote ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
One glance at Koufos' stat sheet shows that's absolutely a reasonable request.
He's an uber-effective defender around the basket. He has averaged 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes over his career. This season, he held opponents to 46.9 percent shooting at the rim. That's the same conversion rate yielded by both Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Draymond Green and 15-time All-Defensive selection Tim Duncan.
And Koufos isn't merely a defensive specialist. He's also a crafty scorer on the interior. He has good footwork, great hands, a soft shooting touch from close range and an understanding of where and when to cut off the ball.
Skilled bigs like him don't usually come cheap. He might be paid as well as anyone on this list, but the rate won't be more than he's worth.
1. Jae Crowder, SF
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If Jae Crowder had a slightly more reliable three-point shot and a bigger track record, he wouldn't be on this list.
He'd be too expensive to qualify.
He's versatile, which is one of the best traits to have in today's game. He's tenacious, which is a requirement for any perimeter stopper. He's 24 years young, which is always something worth selling in this market. And he's getting better every season, which is what teams want to see a potential long-term investment doing.
Crowder's free-agency journey could be brief. The restricted free agent said the interest in a reunion with the Boston Celtics "is mutual, from what I can tell," via Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald. But, perhaps realizing the iron is hot, Crowder also admitted "you want to find out what your value might be."
Whether Crowder stays in Boston or seeks out greener pastures elsewhere, his price will be a relative bargain. This won't be a clearance-rack contract, but it shouldn't approach the type of money versatile defenders Draymond Green, DeMarre Carroll and Khris Middleton will collect.
Those three have more advanced offensive games than Crowder. But if his hard work brings that part of his game along, he should be the best bargain of this offseason.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
