San Francisco 49ers: Plenty of Salary-Cap Space for the 2016 Offseason

The silver lining to the San Francisco 49ers’ exodus of veterans and other notable talent this offseason is a big pile of salary-cap space next offseason.

According to Adam Schefter, the 49ers' recent retirement spree has created $25 million of salary-cap room in 2016, and $40 million of room in 2017:

The 49ers have been pretty tight up against the salary cap for the last three or four seasons, explaining why they had to let players such as Mike Iupati, Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox, Donte Whitner, Tarell Brown and Dashon Goldson go.  Having actual room to maneuver will be an entirely new experience for general manager Trent Baalke.

Here in the lull between the end of minicamps and the beginning of training camps, let’s take a brief preview of the 2016 offseason.  It’s obviously far too early to say anything for sure, but it’s always nice to keep future considerations in mind as we move forward.

According to Over The Cap, the 49ers are currently about $35 million under the cap for the 2016 season.  That has them in 13th place overall, though there are a few teams above them that might find their cap space significantly reduced between now and the actual beginning of the free-agency period.

The New York Giants, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks and San Diego Chargers do not have their current starting quarterback under contract for 2016, and they could see their available salary-cap space take a major dive, especially in the case of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.  As it stands, the 49ers should be firmly in the upper third of teams in terms of salary-cap space entering the 2016 season.

Of course, some of that space will have to be used to re-sign their own players.  At the moment, the 49ers have six players both penciled in as starters in 2015 and scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in 2016: Aldon Smith, Vernon Davis, Phil Dawson, Alex Boone, Shareece Wright and Ian Williams.

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

It feels unlikely that Davis will be re-signed.  He’ll be 32 years old, is coming off his worst season of his career and has recent draft picks such as Vance McDonald, Blake Bell and Busta Anderson behind him.  He’d have to have a real renaissance season to be in consideration for a new deal in 2016.

Similarly, I don’t think there’s a guarantee that Shareece Wright will win the starting cornerback spot this season, much less be worth keeping around next year, and as good...as good...as good as Phil Dawson has been, he’ll be 40 years old in 2016.

That leaves Smith, Boone and Williams as potential players to re-sign.  Aldon Smith’s situation is pretty straightforward: If he keeps his nose clean and stays out of trouble with the law and the NFL throughout the 2015 season, he’ll get a large contract comparable to the top NFL deals; he’s one of the league’s elite pass-rushers.

The NFL's biggest OLB contract at the moment belongs to Junior Galette.  It’s a four-year, $41.5 million deal with over half of that guaranteed, according to Over the Cap.  That’s probably in the neighborhood of a potential Aldon Smith deal and might actually represent a savings compared to Smith’s 2015 cap hit of $9.8 million.  The 49ers can fit that in if they deem Smith’s life turned around enough.

Ian Williams, when healthy, has been worth a new deal for a while now.  His injury-prone status can probably keep the team from having to break the bank too much for him, but a raise into the $4 million a year range doesn’t seem out of the question and would be entirely doable with the 49ers’ available cap room.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press/Associated Press

As for Alex Boone, his value is the hardest of all to determine.  First of all, there’s a chance he could move to offensive tackle to replace the retired Anthony Davis, which could significantly increase his contract demands; tackles make more than guards.

Secondly, he’s not on the best terms with 49ers management after holding out last season, and it feels like he’ll be eager to test the free-agent waters.  Evaluating his potential value at this point, then, is nearly impossible, and I’d actually peg him as more likely to leave then to stay.

There are other names to watch out for, as well.  Anquan Boldin technically has three years left on his deal, but they were just added for salary-cap purposes and void after the season, which will make him a free agent as well.

As he’ll be 35 years old, it’s likely he’ll either retire or sign a one-year deal; I wouldn’t count on him being around next season.  Reggie Bush is another free agent and is unlikely to be re-signed unless he has a monster year this season.  Michael Wilhoite is a restricted free agent, and thus the 49ers could match any offer for him or get draft picks in return.

Then there’s the case of Anthony Davis.  At the moment, he counts $3 million against the 2016 salary cap, thanks to his signing bonus, according to Over the Cap.

However, if he returns to the league, as he implied he would, his contract would re-activate, simply tolling one year into the future.  That would bump his 2016 cap hit up to $5.8 million, if my calculations are right.  Adding a tackle of Davis’ quality for $2.8 million extra would be a major add for the 49ers.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Even adding all of that up, however, it looks like the 49ers will have somewhere between $10 million and $20 million to actually spend on free agents in 2016 if they want to after signing most of their key free agents.  That’s a massive bump compared to recent seasons, and that’s before considering potential cap casualties such as Ahmad Brooks, Darnel Dockett or Antoine Bethea.  What might they spend in on?

If you’re in the anti-Colin Kaepernick faction, don’t get your hopes up.

The 49ers’ starting quarterback in 2016 is essentially guaranteed to be one of three players: Kaepernick, a high first-round draft pick like Christian Hackenberg or Cardale Jones or a low-priced veteran keeping the seat warm for a first-round draft pick like Chad Henne or Matt Cassel.

Pending free agents such as Eli Manning or Philip Rivers are not only likely to be re-signed by their own teams, but they also wouldn’t make financial sense for the 49ers to target.

The biggest name that’s sitting out there right now might be Dez Bryant.  Bryant’s unhappy with the Dallas Cowboys’ attempts to sign him to a long-term deal at the moment, and Tom Condon of SiriusXM NFL Radio (via Sports Illustrated) reported that he’s willing to sit out regular-season games if he doesn’t get an extension.

While the 49ers have a number of promising receivers on the roster, none of them are nearly as good as Bryant is.  If he hits the market, he’ll be the subject of a massive bidding war.

Cheaper options than Bryan at the receiver position might include T.Y. Hilton or Alshon Jeffery, both of whom would make excellent additions to the roster if none of the 49ers’ young draft picks really pan out.

Another name the 49ers could be interested in is Bobby Wagner, the Seahawks’ premier inside linebacker.  Hurting a division rival and pairing Wagner with NaVorro Bowman inside is an exceptionally tempting prospect, and the Seahawks might not be able re-sign both Wagner and Russell Wilson.  He’d make a great replacement for Patrick Willis, albeit a year late.

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Another major name, albeit perhaps one not likely to leave his current team, would be defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson of the New York Jets, arguably the second-best 3-4 end in football behind J.J. Watt at the moment.  A native of New Jersey, I’d imagine he’d want to stay with the Jets, but if he does hit the open market, he’ll command a huge deal.

It seems like the 49ers will actively be in the market next offseason for free agents.  While it hurts to lose so many quality players—and given the choice, I’m sure the franchise would rather have the retired players back rather than their salary-cap space—there’s a silver lining to every cloud.  A big-name free agent might be the silver lining in 2016.

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.