Predicting MLB All-Star or Snub for Each Player Fighting for a Spot
As big leaguers like Todd Frazier and Joc Pederson could soon find out, a monster start to the season is no guarantee of a spot in the MLB All-Star Game.
Across the majors, there are plenty of standouts who could get snubbed out of a spot when the Midsummer Classic rosters are released. In the process of trying to predict which major leaguers will get left out, it's not just about the given player's stat line.
Sometimes, an All-Star hopeful's chances could be hurt because a less deserving player sits at the top of the ballot in the fan vote. In other situations, there might just be too many talented players at one particular position. Plus, there are rare cases when the situation is totally out of the player's control.
Catcher
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The All-Star Hopeful: Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics
Stephen Vogt won't be starting the All-Star Game, as he currently has half as many votes (2.2 million) as leading vote-getter Salvador Perez (4.4 million).
But the unheralded backstop is putting up numbers that simply can't be ignored. Vogt leads all catchers in home runs (11), RBI (40), OBP (.384), slugging percentage (.519) and OPS (.903). The 30-year-old had better not book any vacations for All-Star weekend, because a trip to Great American Ball Park is in his future.
Predicted Status: All-Star
1st Base
2 of 11
The All-Star Hopeful: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
It's been a banner year for American League first basemen.
The owner of a .347 average and .932 OPS, Prince Fielder is back to his old ways at the plate. Miguel Cabrera has also taken a two-by-four to the league, checking in with 13 bombs, a .333 average and a 1.014 OPS.
While Fielder and Cabrera have been the class of the position in 2015, neither masher is at the top of the All-Star ballot. That distinction belongs to Eric Hosmer of the Kansas City Royals, who checks in with 600,000 more votes (3.5 million) than the second-place Cabrera.
With Hosmer looking like the starter and Cabrera and Fielder putting up unreal seasons, Mark Teixeira, who has smashed 17 home runs, will likely be left out in the cold.
Predicted Status: Snub
2nd Base
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The All-Star Hopeful: Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
Brian Dozier leads all second basemen with 12 jacks and is second in OPS (.868), but he's not even in the top five on the AL ballot at his spot.
As good as Dozier has been for the Minnesota Twins, the chances of the 28-year-old earning an All-Star nod look remote; Jose Altuve is on track to get the start as the leading vote-getter.
Meanwhile, Jason Kipnis and Dustin Pedroia, who both have more prominent reputations around the game, have also been playing at extremely high levels. Kipnis has the best OPS (.906) among second basemen, and Pedroia checks in with an .825 OPS and nine homers.
Predicted Status: Snub
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Shortstop
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The All-Star Hopeful: Adeiny Hechavarria, Miami Marlins
In what has so far been an underwhelming campaign for the Miami Marlins, Adeiny Hechavarria has been one of the few bright spots.
The Cuban is swinging at a clip of .300 and has impressed with the glove. Per Baseball-Reference.com, the 26-year-old has saved the Fish four runs above average on defense in 2015.
It's been a career year for Hechavarria, but he has plenty of work to do if he wants to represent the National League in the Midsummer Classic.
Jhonny Peralta has the most votes and is on track to start, while Brandon Crawford and Troy Tulowitzki also factor into the equation. Hechavarria can't match Tulo's prominence and offensive production (.828 OPS), while Crawford has more pop (nine home runs).
Predicted Status: Snub
3rd Base
5 of 11
The All-Star Hopeful: Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
With 18 homers, Todd Frazier has been hammering the NL.
Unfortunately for the Cincinnati Reds third baseman, he hasn't been getting any help from fans in his effort to take part in the All-Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, who will be a spokesperson for the event, would like to see Frazier earn a spot.
"Hopefully he gets a chance to participate," Larkin said, via Jeremy Rauch of Fox 19. "There's something special about playing in your hometown at the All-Star Game in front of your fans."
Matt Carpenter of the rival St. Louis Cardinals sits in first place on the ballot and has nearly three times as many votes (3.1 million) as Frazier.
Standout rookie Kris Bryant is also playing his way into the mix, which means Frazier and Nolan Arenado could be battling for the final spot. Ultimately, the decision will be up to NL skipper Bruce Bochy, but the fact that the game will be played in Frazier's home park should only help his case.
Predicted Status: All-Star
Outfield
6 of 11
The All-Star Hopeful: Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
If Starling Marte is going to be an All-Star this summer, it won't be thanks to the fan vote.
The 26-year-old lands in the No. 15 spot on the ballot despite enjoying an excellent season for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015. Marte doesn't get the same kind of billing as superstar teammate Andrew McCutchen, but he's quietly produced in a big way for the Bucs. The left fielder has piled up 12 home runs and has swiped 11 bases.
Even with that power and speed, it appears that Marte's best chance at cracking the roster would be as an injury replacement.
Predicted Status: Snub
Outfield
7 of 11
The All-Star Hopeful: Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
Languishing in the No. 11 spot on the NL ballot for outfielders, it doesn't look like Joc Pederson will be starting in the All-Star Game.
But leaving the Los Angeles Dodgers rookie center fielder off the roster—even if that decision ends up coming down to Giants manager Bochy—would be ridiculous. The 23-year-old has crushed 17 shots, which is the third-most among NL outfielders. He's also No. 3 among outfielders in slugging percentage (.549) and OPS (.932).
Predicted Status: All-Star
Outfield
8 of 11
The All-Star Hopeful: Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics
After subpar seasons in each of the past two years, Josh Reddick has been battering the AL in 2015.
The Oakland Athletics right fielder checks in with a .309 average, 10 home runs and a .912 OPS. While the numbers look good for Reddick, there is a factor that is outside of his control that could play against his All-Star bid.
Vogt and starter Sonny Gray are also putting together All-Star-worthy resumes, and it won't be easy to justify handing three spots to an Oakland club which owns the worst record in the league.
Predicted Status: Snub
Designated Hitter
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The All-Star Hopeful: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Alex Rodriguez has the highest OPS (.887) among designated hitters, but he's far from a lock to represent the AL in July.
Whether Rodriguez makes the cut will likely hinge on whether Kendrys Morales ends up winning the fan vote. Currently, the Kansas City Royals DH has a lead of slightly more than 100,000 votes over Nelson Cruz. The Seattle Mariners masher, who has clocked 18 home runs, is a lock for the All-Star Game. Rodriguez's best chance of getting in is if Cruz overtakes Morales on the ballot.
Prediction: Snub
Starting Pitcher
10 of 11
The All-Star Hopeful: Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
It's difficult to predict just which starting pitcher will get snubbed this summer, as there's no fan vote to go by for hurlers.
One starter whose relatively low profile could play against his chances is Hector Santiago. In his second full season for the Los Angeles Angels, the lefty has been lights-out for the AL West club. Santiago has posted a 2.59 ERA, which is the sixth-best mark among all pitchers in the circuit.
Santiago definitely has a real chance to make the All-Star team, but it wouldn't be shocking if he missed out on the spot to a more prominent starter having a less impressive campaign.
Predicted Status: Snub
Relief Pitcher
11 of 11
The All-Star Hopeful: Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Jeurys Familia has been a breakout star for the New York Mets in 2015, as the righty has become one of the top ninth-inning stoppers in the Senior Circuit.
The 25-year-old has racked up 18 saves and posted a 1.21 ERA while holding the opposition to a .168 average. With those kinds of numbers, Familia has a great shot at landing a spot in the NL All-Star bullpen.
Predicted Status: All-Star
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. AL and NL ballot updates courtesy of the MLB Communications Twitter account.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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