6 College Football Teams That Are Playoff or Bust in 2015-16 Season
Every program has high expectations for itself, but not all of those expectations are the same. Ultimately, plenty of teams think they're playoff caliber, but it takes more than that to actually be selected for the four-team field.
It takes a combination of talent, outstanding coaching, the right schedule, playing well at the right time and, yes, even a little bit of luck. When it all comes together, it can result in a playoff run like the one we saw with Ohio State last season.
The Buckeyes will be looking to repeat as national champions in 2015-16. Absolutely, Ohio State is facing a playoff-or-bust-type season. But so are five other teams and for different reasons. Some, like USC, are looking to cement themselves back atop college football. Others, like TCU, know this season might have the right combination of factors to get to the next level.
These are the teams with playoff-or-bust attitudes based on expectations and returning talent.
Alabama
1 of 6
2015 is a playoff-or-bust year for Alabama, but so was 2014. Barring any significant change, every year is going to carry those expectations for the Crimson Tide. That's what head coach Nick Saban has done for the program.
Even if he "fears" what the playoff supposedly does to college football.
By now, you probably know all about the Tide's storylines for this season and how it impacts their path to the postseason. The defense—specifically the defensive line, led by Jonathan Allen—should rank among the best in the country. The offense, on the other hand, needs reloading after losing wide receiver Amari Cooper, among others.
However, here's where Alabama's playoff-or-bust mentality really has meat: Missing the playoffs would be another hit to Saban's dynasty in Tuscaloosa.
Oh, sure, the Tide will always be good under Saban. Other than his first season in 2007, in which Alabama went 7-6, Saban has led this program to at least 10 wins every year. Understand, too, that when you've reached the top of the college football mountain, there's nowhere else to go. Anything else means falling short.
But let's look at how recent seasons have ended:
2013: A 45-31 Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma.
2014: A 42-35 Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State in the national semifinals.
None of this is to suggest the Tide are on the decline, but the fact remains they've come up short recently after winning three national championships in four years (2009, '11, '12).
As Jon Solomon of CBSSports.com wrote after Alabama's 23-17 loss to Ole Miss last October, the little details are what indicate Alabama's stretch of dominance is on shaky ground:
"The loss isn't a death notice for Alabama in 2014. But it's the latest wake-up call that the Saban dynasty is over. Alabama has lost three straight against ranked teams -- the first time that's happened to Saban since he was at Michigan State in 1997. Already, the Alabama-LSU game on Nov. 8 is assured of having the most combined losses since 2007. The new order of the SEC West continues to evolve.
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If Alabama doesn't make the four-team playoff in '15, it doesn't mean it won't be back the following year. It doesn't mean the Tide will never win another national championship (or two, or three). It does mean, though, that the SEC West (or the SEC) is more wide-open than it has been.
It would also show Alabama is either a little less dominant or someone else—perhaps a few programs—are on the upswing. Maybe a little bit of both.
Baylor
2 of 6
Everyone knows by now that head coach Art Briles has done a masterful job building an annual contender at Baylor. The school has made an undeniable commitment to football that extends beyond Briles (see: McLane Stadium), but this turnaround ranks somewhere among the best all time in college football.
Where are expectations for the program now? Playoffs, baby. The program is starving to get to that next postseason level after winning back-to-back Big 12 championships. Even though the Bears have to replace quarterback Bryce Petty, there's little-to-no reason to believe there will be any drop-off in offensive production. Seth Russell emerged as Petty's successor during spring practices, and it's going to take a lot for someone to unseat him.
What makes Baylor such a fascinating team is not the skill position talent, though. Players like Shock Linwood, KD Cannon, Corey Coleman and even novelty 400-pound tight end Laquan McGowan are used to the spotlight. So take a closer look in the trenches. Baylor returns basically its entire starting offensive and defensive lines. Among the notable players are center Kyle Fuller, guard Blake Muir, tackle Spencer Drango, defensive end Shawn Oakman and defensive tackles Andrew Billings and Beau Blackshear. Those are players bound for first- or second-team All-Conference consideration in 2015.
Baylor's path to the playoff is a blessing and a curse. Few Power Five teams have an easier road to an undefeated record than Baylor. (As Jake Trotter of ESPN.com notes, though, scheduling by and large in the Big 12 is subpar this year.) The other side of that is an undefeated season is likely what it will take for the Bears to actually get to the playoff. Certainly, the nonconference schedule of SMU, Lamar and Rice won't help.
The thing is, the act of going undefeated is difficult. Forget schedules for a moment; 18-to-23-year-olds are mistake-prone to begin with. Now, ask them to win 12 or 13 football games in a row. Even the most talented teams with the best head coaches struggle.
Can Briles get his team to be perfect in 2015? It might come down to a crucial Nov. 27 game on the road at TCU. A loss would be heartbreaking, and another year of wondering what could have been would be even harder.
Ohio State
3 of 6
When you're the defending national champions and have as much talent returning as Ohio State does, anything less than a repeat will be a disappointment.
There's little that can be said about the Buckeyes now that hasn't been parsed 100 times already:
— The quarterback battle with Cardale Jones, JT Barrett and Braxton Miller will be the primary storyline in all of college football during preseason camp. Ohio State can win with any of them.
— The defense is just as stout. Defensive end Joey Bosa could very well be the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL draft.
— The schedule sets up well too. The Buckeyes' two toughest conference games on paper—vs. Penn State and Michigan State—are at home. Ohio State should be favorites, if not huge favorites, in every game.
The only thing to add is that head coach Urban Meyer has led Ohio State to back-to-back undefeated regular seasons in 2012 and '13. So, if any coach can guide his team to back-to-back national titles, it's him. Take a minute to think about what Meyer has done in Columbus: In three seasons, his record is 38-3. Losing is not something Ohio State is used to right now. Missing out on the playoff would be devastating—and probably a sign that something went horribly wrong along the way.
Predicting what that would be is impossible. As we saw a year ago, a single loss to a .500 team didn't cripple Ohio State's playoff hopes, but who's to say that will be the case in 2015? There's no singular formula for how the selection committee will determine its playoff field—other than what happened in '14 doesn't count.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Oregon
4 of 6
You'd think one season removed from losing quarterback Marcus Mariota, Oregon's best player in a generation (or ever?), the program would have more tempered expectations.
Not so. That's why the Ducks brought in Eastern Washington transfer quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. The worst-case scenario is that Adams will add another dimension to the quarterback competition with Jeff Lockie. The best-case scenario is that he does what Mariota could not: lead the Ducks to a national title.
Adams' arrival also presents Oregon's "next man up" philosophy in a different light. Few programs have experienced the kind of consistent success over the past several years, despite player and coaching turnover, like Oregon has. That's a credit to the outstanding assistant coaching hires that have been made—Chip Kelly and current coach Mark Helfrich were in-house promotions—as well as great recruiting and player development. Bringing in the kind of immediate help Adams can provide breaks away from that mold.
Whether it's Adams or Lockie leading the offense, expectations won't change. At the very least, the Ducks should be favored to win the North Division. For the past several years, the strength of the Pac-12 lied in the North with Oregon and Stanford. For 2015 at least, that power appears to have shifted to the South, where any one of four or five teams could realistically win the division.
That's not to suggest Oregon's schedule doesn't present problems. An early nonconference road game at Michigan State is one of the best litmus tests you'll see this season. Additionally, a Nov. 21 game against USC could be an early Pac-12 championship preview.
Still, Oregon has dealt with player turnover before and almost each time has come back just as strong, if not stronger. With one of the biggest grad transfer quarterbacks of the year arriving on campus in earnest, Oregon's not going to bow out of the playoff spotlight.
That's where the Ducks want to be, anyway.
TCU
5 of 6
What makes the Big 12 an interesting conference in the playoff era is that it has two teams that legitimately have a shot at making the field of four again: Baylor and TCU. Yet it's entirely possible both are left out for the second straight season.
(On a related note, such an event might finally be the catalyst for the Big 12 to change its approach to the regular season.)
For TCU, the playoff hunt is extra personal. The Frogs, as you'll recall, entered the final week of the 2014 ranked No. 3 in the official College Football Playoff standings. With only lowly Iowa State left, TCU looked like a lock for the playoff. Yet, despite rolling over the Cyclones 55-3, the Frogs dropped three spots to No. 6 and found themselves outside the field.
Talk about your false impressions.
Yet, TCU finds itself near the top of several preseason top 25 polls—ahead of Baylor too. Practically the entire offense, which saw an incredible turnaround from 2013 and finished second in the nation in points per game, is back. Leading the charge is Heisman contender Trevone Boykin at quarterback.
Head coach Gary Patterson is one of the best in the business. He's led TCU from a successful mid-major to a serious player at the highest level of college football. He's won with stout defense and high-powered offense; hiring co-offensive coordinators Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meacham showed just how willing Patterson was to go outside his comfort zone.
All of this is to say that TCU is in excellent hands with Patterson. But 2015 feels like the year when everything is coming together. Boykin is a senior. Cumbie and/or Meacham could be head coaches somewhere this time next year. Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12's traditional powers, are down at the moment.
In the BCS era, TCU couldn't sniff a national championship opportunity as a member of the Mountain West. The scene has changed for the Horned Frogs as a Big 12 leader in the playoff era. Who knows for sure what the window is for this program, but it certainly feels open right now.
USC
6 of 6
You're not going to find a trendier playoff pick in 2015 than USC. The Trojans are to this year what Oklahoma was to the inaugural playoff chatter in 2014: a blue blood that ended the previous season with a bowl win and a lot of momentum.
Whether USC will fall on its face like the Sooners did is what remains to be seen.
The household name that will be synonymous with a playoff run is quarterback Cody Kessler. He was not only among the most efficient passers in the Pac-12 last year, he was one of the most efficient passers in the country (167.06 passer rating). However, he was overshadowed by Marcus Mariota at Oregon.
The Trojans are loaded with talent elsewhere. Do-it-all weapon Adoree' Jackson is an All-Conference-caliber cornerback but contributes on offense and special teams too. If there's a concern, it's the defensive line, which was hit hard by injuries and other attrition.
Beyond the talent (and question marks) on the roster is what a playoff appearance would mean for head coach Steve Sarkisian and how he's viewed. Sark's the X-factor for this playoff hype, if for no other reason than he's entering just his seventh year as a head coach. Yet you'll find a lot of different opinions about him.
Like former USC coach Lane Kiffin, Sark is a member of the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Since Sarkisian was panned as an underwhelming hire, it added fuel to the narrative that USC had an obsession with hiring Carroll's former assistants.
Sarkisian's recruiting talents are well noted. Every year from 2010-13, Sarkisian landed top-25 recruiting classes with Washington, per 247Sports composite rankings. He also took a program that went winless in 2008 and got it to a bowl game in two years.
Adding complexity to the matter, though, is that Sarkisian's teams plateaued at seven wins. The only time Washington improved on that record was in 2013, Sarkisian's last year with the program, when it went 8-4 in the regular season. Some of that can be explained by the dominance of Oregon and Stanford in the Pac-12 North. In 10 games, Sark's Huskies went 1-9 vs. the Cardinal and Ducks. However, that doesn't account for losses against Arizona, Washington State and Oregon State. Some of those were real head-scratchers.
That trend continued with USC. Sark led the Trojans to nine wins in Year 1 but lost four games in a variety of spectacular fashions. Specifically, finishing games was a problem.
The point being, how Sark is perceived as a head coach is undetermined, and thus, malleable.
USC's preseason hype machine may have been jump-started by the media, but it doesn't change the fact that the Trojans have their eyes on a championship. If USC falls well short of those expectations, Sarkisian is going to take some heat.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
