Warriors vs. Cavaliers: Analysis, Predictions for NBA Finals Game 3
Two games into an NBA Finals matchup that has pit a healthy Golden State Warriors juggernaut against an injury-infested Cleveland Cavaliers unit, only one thing is certain: Nothing is for certain.
The Warriors look like they should run away with this series. Even after the Cavaliers hung tight in Game 1, there was little reason to think otherwise.
Then Game 2 happened. The Cavaliers squeaked out a 95-93 overtime victory without Kevin Love or Kyrie Irving, evening this best-of-seven battle up at one game apiece, successfully seizing home-court advantage in the process.
LeBron James was an absolute beast, tallying a triple-double with 39 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists. The Cavaliers were collectively effective on the defensive front, controlling the pace from start to finish, and he took care of the rest, doing everything on offense.
Now the Warriors travel to Cleveland, where they will try to ensure a series deemed theirs for the taking doesn't become the Cavaliers' to lose.
| 3 | Tuesday | June 9 | 9 p.m. ET | Cleveland | ABC |
| 4 | Thursday | June 11 | 9 p.m. ET | Cleveland | ABC |
| 5 | Sunday | June 14 | 8 p.m. ET | Oakland | ABC |
| 6* | Tuesday | June 16 | 9 p.m. ET | Cleveland | ABC |
| 7* | Friday | June 19 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland | ABC |
Key Storylines
Are the Cavaliers for Real?
Such questions aren't typically asked of NBA Finals participants.
The Cavaliers manhandled an Eastern Conference ripe for manhandling, posting a 12-2 record through the first three rounds of the postseason. They wouldn't be here, in the Finals, if they weren't for real.
Are they real enough to keep navigating their own misfortune while still presenting a viable threat to the Warriors' conceivably open-and-shut title case? That's the question.
Playing without Love didn't prevent the Cavaliers from almost stealing Game 1. If not for poor shot selection down the stretch, their 108-100 overtime loss could have been a victory in regulation.
Soldiering on without both Love and Irving—who is done for the postseason after undergoing surgery on a fractured left kneecap he suffered in that fateful overtime—didn't stop the Cavaliers from winning Game 2.
James, while transcendent, shot just 11-of-35 from the floor in Game 2. The Cavaliers still won.
Despite projections to the contrary, their defense hasn't wilted against Golden State's offense. The Warriors are scoring just 99.7 points per 100 possessions in this series, down from 107.3 through the first three rounds.
Everything from injuries to James' relative inefficiency to a surprisingly lockdown defense points to the Cavaliers' unintended championship model proving unsustainable. Yet they're still here, entering Game 3, the series tied at 1-1, with another opportunity to shock the masses.
Where Did the Dubs' Offense Go?
Credit the Cavaliers defense for stymieing the Warriors. James and friends are dictating the pace and displacing Golden State from its high-octane comfort zone, forcing its offense to operate in the half court.
Still, the Warriors aren't doing themselves any favors.
They're not running through their usual motions, and their ball movement is nonexistent at times. They're also caroming far too many open shots off every part of the rim.
Game 2 saw the Warriors shoot 12-of-38 (31.6 percent) on uncontested looks. They were 8-of-35 from deep (22.9 percent) and, as ESPN.com's J.A. Adande pointed out, battled uncharacteristic traffic jams all night:
Smaller lineups haven't caught the Cavaliers off-guard. Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov have done a nice job accounting for the superior range and playmaking of Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut, and Cleveland's starting five is nearly matching that of Golden State point for point, despite missing two superstars.
Only when the Warriors slot Green at center has their offensive mojo remained intact. The five-man combination of Harrison Barnes, Stephen Curry, Green, Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson logged 17 minutes in Game 2, during which time it outscored the Cavaliers by six points.
Starting games that way is basically out of the question. David Blatt is sticking with Mozgov and Thompson as long as he can, and Steve Kerr has responded by relying upon Bogut more than usual.
But with the team sputtering on offense and in need of regaining home-court advantage, it's going to take an even greater dependence on super-small ball for the Warriors to get their groove back.
Obvious Adjustments Each Team Must Make
Cleveland: Start Making Open Shots...Finally
Bleacher Report's own Zach Buckley called out Cleveland's lack of open-shot accuracy ahead of Game 2. And since things haven't changed, we're going to borrow his megaphone for a second.
Nearly half of the Cavaliers' field-goal attempts went uncontested in Game 1. They connected on just 40.5 percent of those unimpeded looks (17-of-42).
Almost half of their shot opportunities went uncontested once again in Game 2. They converted an even worse 30 percent of them (12-of-40).
J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert combined to go 4-of-14 on wide-open shots Sunday night. James himself failed to make the most of his high-percentage looks, converting just three of his 13 unobstructed views at the basket.
Scoring on the Warriors' stingy defense is difficult enough. The Cavaliers cannot continue squandering the surfeit of wide-open chances they're getting. They won't beat a team like Golden State three more times by resting on above-board clips for contested shots.
Golden State: Move the Ball
Through the Finals' first two contests, the Warriors look nothing like the passing-packed phenomenon of series past. They tossed just 285 passes in Game 1 and followed that up with a ridiculously low 217 in Game 2.
Their average for the postseason is north of 303.
Snail-paced games always stood to diminish the Warriors' volume deferring. Fewer possessions means fewer opportunities to pass. But their downtick in movement has more to do with the offense's disorientation.
Everyone from Barnes and Curry to Green and Thompson is slipping into isolation sets more frequently. Rather than test the Cavaliers' paint protection, they're apt to fire up threes and long jumpers, open or otherwise, after way too much dribbling.
"They took our rhythm away," Kerr said after Game 2, per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "Then we've got to do a better job ourselves of trying to create that pace and rhythm.”
Again, the Cavaliers defense is getting tougher to crack by the game, and the Warriors aren't exactly failing to generate high-percentage looks. Thirty-eight of their shot attempts went uncontested in Game 2.
Insufficient ball movement just makes them easier to defend. Mozgov and Thompson are allowed to roam around the basket when they don't have to help onto off-ball slashers, and the Warriors' sudden propensity to explore east and west doesn't make the Cavaliers' defense work hard enough, even when they're forced to defend for 20-plus seconds.
More ball movement will help the Warriors create open looks earlier in the shot clock. At the very least, it demands that more than one or two Cavaliers players remain in constant motion.
So if the Warriors going to recapture their offensive rhythm and inject some pace into this sloth-fest for Game 3, they have to start there.
X-Factors
Cleveland: J.R. Smith
Sooner rather than later, the Cavaliers will need a consistent No. 2 offensive option to emerge.
Smith has always seemed like the best candidate, if only because his hot-and-cold ways allow him to impact the offensive outcome to a significant degree. But he's shooting just 8-of-26 for the series, including 4-of-12 on spot-up treys, his bread and butter since arriving in Cleveland.
Losing Irving and Love has bilked the Cavaliers of two defensive draws who eliminate the need for Smith to work off the dribble. He's shooting just 16.7 percent on pull-up jumpers and not enjoying the same amount of space on the perimeter as he did with Irving in the lineup.
If nothing else, Smith needs to be something other than a monstrous minus. He committed three potentially costly fouls down the stretch of Game 2 and played so poorly on both ends that, as CBS Sports' Zach Harper eloquently observed, Golden State actually had ample reason to be disappointed that he fouled out:
Tons of players are bringing the heat on defense for the Cavaliers. Matthew Dellavedova, Thompson, Mozgov, James and Shumpert are defending every possession as if its the last one they'll ever guard.
More than Smith needs to fall in line on that end of the floor, he needs to provide James with what, truthfully, no one else of reasonable health can: a semi-reliable partner in crime on offense.
Golden State: Andre Iguodala
Andre Iguodala's X-factor status will remain unchanged for the remainder of these Finals.
He has logged more than 30 minutes in consecutive games for the first time this postseason and has been instrumental in "limiting" James to 39.7 percent shooting for the series. Really, he's been a defensive boon in general.
Cavaliers players are shooting under 27 percent when being guarded by Iguodala, something that'll have to continue if Golden State's offense doesn't stop bordering on anemic. And while his own offensive contributions are often viewed as an added luxury, the Warriors needed every one of his seven points and five assists to hang with Cleveland in Game 2.
Looking ahead to Game 3 and beyond, if Iguodala is going to log 30-plus minute every night, they're going to need even more.
Key Matchup
Stephen Curry vs. Matthew Dellavedova
There is no stopping Curry.
Normally.
Game 2 was no normal battle, though. Curry shot 5-of-23 overall and just 2-of-15 from beyond the arc, prompting James to wax all things Matthew Dellavedova.
"It had everything to do with Delly," he said of Curry's performance, per CBS Sports' Matt Moore. "He just kept a body on Steph. He made Steph work. He was spectacular, man, defensively."
SportsCenter was kind enough to show everyone that James wasn't speaking in hyperbole:
Curry is usually going to have his way or close to it on any given night, and the Cavaliers cannot expect him to hit just one of his nine uncontested looks, as he did in Game 2, ever again. But this series is fast becoming a brutal defensive sparring. If Dellavedova can give Cleveland a body to throw on Curry every game, it frees up James and Shumpert to allocate their services elsewhere.
And, as we saw in Game 2, that can make a world of difference.
Prediction
One victory at Oracle Arena, impressive though it remains, doesn't change anything for the Cavaliers. They're still facing overwhelmingly steep odds in their search for a title.
At some point, the Warriors offense will explode.
At some point, James and James alone won't be enough on the offensive end.
At some point, the Cavaliers defense will be less than (nearly) perfect.
The scary part of all this: Even if those points never come, the Warriors are still favorites. They have played far from their best basketball yet were still in position to grab a 2-0 series lead.
That the Cavaliers are heading back to Cleveland with a 1-1 tie to their name is, more than anything, a surprise. James is still James, but his team isn't getting any healthier or deeper and, thus far, has played above its head.
And, at some point, that has to matter.
Prediction: Warriors 101, Cavaliers 93
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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