Predicting Which Team Will Finish Dead Last in Every CFB Conference
It is an unavoidable truth of college football, and of sports in general: For every winner, there’s a loser. No matter how many overtimes it might take, every college football game ends with one team happy and another disappointed.
And for every team that ends the season hoisting a league championship trophy, there’s another planning to find its way out of the league basement.
That’s what this feature is about.
There’s plenty of speculation about which teams will win their respective leagues in 2015, but how about the teams that will finish last?
They’re a mix of teams on the way up, traditional doormats and programs with coaches under fire (Sports on Earth's Matt Brown listed college football coaches on the hot seat entering 2015).
Here’s a look at the teams that’ll finish dead last in each respective conference. For leagues with multiple divisions, we’re picking the team that will most likely finish with the worst overall record.
American Athletic Conference: South Florida
1 of 10
The American Athletic Conference is considered the top non-Power Five college football league and has improved this offseason.
Houston, SMU and Tulsa made solid head coaching hires with high-profile offensive coordinators Tom Herman, Chad Morris and Philip Montgomery, respectively. That makes life even tougher for the rest of the AAC and those fighting to catch up with the likes of Memphis, Cincinnati and Central Florida.
Surely, Willie Taggart wasn’t pleased with the developments. Taggart earned the South Florida job with a solid effort at Western Kentucky but has done little over two seasons to validate his hire. Under his watch, USF is 6-18, including a 4-8 mark last fall.
Following last season, he fired both of his coordinators and switched to an uptempo spread style of offense and a 4-2-5 defense which will, in theory, better attack spread offenses, which have become more prevalent in the AAC.
This could be a season of transition when USF least needs it. The Bulls have 10 starters returning, led by AAC Rookie of the Year Marlon Mack, who had 1,041 yards and nine touchdowns as a freshman.
South Florida will travel to Florida State and Maryland in September and also has Memphis, East Carolina and Cincinnati on its schedule. Unless the Bulls find a consistent quarterback and the new systems mesh quickly, Taggart could be looking for a job by December.
Atlantic Coast Conference: Wake Forest
2 of 10
Over the past four years, the ACC has proved itself as one of the nation’s top leagues, and the Atlantic Division in particular has improved, with Florida State and Clemson leading the pack.
That’s a problem for Wake Forest.
Dave Clawson got the job after winning an MAC title with Bowling Green, but Jim Grobe didn’t leave him much to work with. The Demon Deacons’ 2006 ACC championship seems like a distant memory.
Last fall, Clawson struggled to a 3-9 record in his Wake debut, with the only ACC win a 6-3 overtime victory over Virginia Tech that stood out as one of the season’s most infamous games. The Deacons averaged 14.8 points per game, and their 216.3 yards per game ranked No. 125 nationally in total offense.
This fall shouldn’t be much better. While 13 starters return from a year ago, only two starters return from an offensive line which gave up 48 sacks while protecting freshman quarterback John Wolford. Defensively, Wake must replace three members of its secondary, including NFL first-round pick Kevin Johnson and Merrill Noel, who combined for 84 career starts.
The schedule isn’t easy, either. Wake must travel to Notre Dame and Clemson and hosts Florida State and Louisville. The Deacons will be very young and will struggle for wins against the tough Atlantic slate.
Big Ten Conference: Purdue
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There was a time when Purdue was one of the most exciting teams in the Big Ten and college football, with Joe Tiller as the head coach and Drew Brees leading a “basketball on grass” offense.
Those days must be hard to remember for Boilermaker fans, who’ve seen just one winning season (2011’s 7-6 campaign) since Tiller retired in 2008.
Darrell Hazell enters his third season at Purdue with a 4-20 record and just one league win, last fall’s 38-27 triumph over Illinois. Purdue will return 16 starters from 2014, but the roster severely lacks playmakers, and the Boilers must replace their top two tailbacks in Akeem Hunt and Raheem Mostert. However, Keyante Green and Markell Jones are ready to step in.
Seven defensive starters return from a team that allowed 31.7 points per game last fall, No. 12 in the Big Ten. A schedule that includes an opener at tough Conference USA foe Marshall, a visit from Virginia Tech and trips to Michigan State and Wisconsin won’t be forgiving.
It’s hard to see the Boilers improving much on 2014 this season.
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Big 12 Conference: Kansas
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When David Beaty took over at Kansas last fall, he walked into a very difficult situation.
The Jayhawks have won just 12 games in the last five seasons, and the tenures of Turner Gill and Charlie Weis were disastrous. Kansas went 3-9 a year ago, and due to Weis’ failed attempt at a quick fix with hordes of junior college players, the roster will return just six starters in 2014.
Beaty will be running the Air Raid scheme and must settle on a starting quarterback between Michael Cummings and Montell Cozart. KU counts just seven receptions from its returning receivers. The defense also returns just three starters and will be looking to improve after yielding 33.3 points per game last fall, No. 106 nationally.
KU hosts Baylor and Oklahoma and travels to Texas and TCU before ending the season hosting West Virginia and Kansas State. But the Big 12 is one of the nation’s toughest grinds, and it’d be foolish to expect more than a handful of wins in Beaty’s first season (or first couple of seasons) in Lawrence.
Conference USA: Charlotte
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Conference USA lost UAB’s program (at least for this season, despite a surprising reversal of the decision to shut down the football program) but will remain at 13 teams in 2015.
That’s because C-USA will add Charlotte, which is entering just its third season in existence, its first as a C-USA member and first at the FBS level.
The 49ers finished 5-6 last season against a slate with no FBS teams, including such powers as Chowan, Wesley College and UNC-Pembroke (losing to Wesley and UNC-Pembroke). They trade that schedule for one with 11 FBS teams on the docket (the only exception is FCS foe Presbyterian) and also face Kentucky and Temple.
The 49ers return 13 starters but must settle on a quarterback between Matt Johnson (who started eight games in 2014 before suffering a knee injury) and Lee McNeill. The offense averaged 38.8 points per game with a fast-paced scheme, but the defense allowed 31.6 and must take a big step forward against the upgraded schedule. Charlotte is on the right track, but its first year in FBS could be rough.
Mid-American Conference: Eastern Michigan
6 of 10
The MAC is fun to watch, particularly if you happen upon a high-scoring game on Tuesday or Wednesday night on one of the ESPN family of networks. However, MACtion, as they call it, hasn’t found much traction in Ypsilanti, Michigan.
Eastern Michigan is one of the nation’s most downtrodden programs, as the Eagles haven’t had a winning season since 1995.
Second-year coach Chris Creighton has a solid track record with a career record of 142-56 but faces a tough challenge in rebuilding EMU’s program. Last year, the Eagles’ only wins came against FCS foe Morgan State and Buffalo. The defense allowed a horrific 40.9 points and 498.8 yards per game.
The Eagles’ non-conference slate includes trips to LSU and Wyoming, but the schedule does have six home games, three in September, which could start the season with some positive momentum.
Reginald Bell is a solid dual-threat quarterback and will have some talented pieces around him, but the roster lags behind the rest of the MAC in terms of overall skill.
This could be another long season as Creighton’s rebuild continues.
Mountain West Conference: UNLV
7 of 10
When UNLV replaced head coach Bobby Hauck, who resigned following a 2-11 season, it made an intriguing, outside-the-box hire in coach Tony Sanchez, who’s making the jump to FBS following a very successful stint at local high school Bishop Gorman.
The Rebels were in position to make the hire because the program had become so downtrodden. UNLV has lost at least 10 games in six of the last nine seasons and needs facility upgrades across the board. Sanchez’s first season at the helm could be a real struggle.
Only seven starters return, but one of them is freshman All-America receiver Devonte Boyd, who had 65 receptions for 980 yards and four touchdowns.
Progress must be made by a defense that allowed 513.5 yards and 38.5 points per game last fall. It’ll be led by linebacker Tau Lotulelei and safety Peni Vea, who were standouts in 2014.
However, the schedule is unforgiving, with non-conference trips to Michigan and Northern Illinois and a visit from UCLA. The Rebels must travel to Fresno State and Colorado State and host Boise State and San Diego State.
Sanchez’s first season will certainly be a challenge.
Pac-12 Conference: Colorado
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Colorado’s 2014 season was an exercise in frustration.
The Buffaloes finished 2-10, went winless in league play for the first time in 99 years and lost four games by five points or less. That included tough double-overtime losses to UCLA and Cal.
Fifteen starters return for coach Mike MacIntyre’s third season (he is 6-18 in two seasons at Colorado). Junior quarterback Sefo Liufau is an experienced signal-caller and has a prolific target in senior wide receiver Nelson Spruce, who had 106 receptions for 1,198 yards and 12 touchdowns last fall.
The biggest issues are on defense, where new defensive coordinator and former South Florida coach Jim Leavitt will try to turn around a unit that allowed 39 points and 461 yards per game last fall. Nine starters return, so there’s potential for improvement.
Colorado has a manageable non-conference schedule but has Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford and Arizona on its Pac-12 home slate, with trips to Arizona State and UCLA on the docket.
The Buffs should improve, but will it be enough to get out of the Pac-12 basement?
Southeastern Conference: Vanderbilt
9 of 10
Entering his second season, Derek Mason has already squandered any goodwill toward him as Vanderbilt’s head coach. In fact, Mason is probably on the hot seat right now; that’s how bad his 2014 debut was.
Mason followed James Franklin’s back-to-back nine-win seasons with a 3-9 stinkbomb and a winless SEC record. The only wins came over UMass, FCS foe Charleston Southern and Old Dominion.
As Alex Scarborough of ESPN.com notes, the breaking point for Mason came following a 51-0 blowout loss to Mississippi State late in the season.
"We set Vanderbilt football back," Mason said. "All the things that had been gained in three-to-four years had been lost in one game. I set it back. We set it back. So now what we need to do is turn the clock forward and make sure that never happens again."
Mason fired both of his coordinators and will take over the Commodores defense himself. The unit yielded 33.3 points per game, last in the SEC, but does return nine starters.
Vandy scored only nine offensive touchdowns against SEC foes and needs to settle on a quarterback, for starters.
Vanderbilt avoids Alabama and Auburn from the SEC West but must travel to Ole Miss, South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee and host Texas A&M. The Commodores also travel to Houston and Middle Tennessee in non-league play.
Will they improve? Perhaps, but it might be hard to tell in the ultra-competitive SEC.
Sun Belt Conference: Georgia State
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College football’s recent realignment shuffle allowed several young programs to make the leap up to FBS play, perhaps before they were ready to do so.
That was the case at Georgia State. In two FBS and Sun Belt seasons, the Panthers are 1-23, with the only win coming in the 2014 season opener, a 38-37 victory over Abilene Christian.
Georgia State returns 16 starters and has a deeper roster after playing with less than 70 scholarship players a year ago. Quarterback Nick Arbuckle leads the way after throwing for 3,283 yards with 23 touchdowns and 17 interceptions last season.
The defense hopes for big improvement following an influx of transfers. The Panthers allowed 497.1 yards and 43.3 points per game to foes last fall—truly ugly numbers.
Starting with new FBS team Charlotte and a trip to New Mexico State before a trip to—gulp—Oregon on Sept. 19 will help, but depth and overall talent remain issues.
It’d be a surprise if GSU found its way out of the Sun Belt cellar this fall.
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