The Case for Every Top 2015 NBA Free Agent to Change Teams
There's a lot to like about personnel continuity, but sometimes change is in order. Free agency is a tried-and-true mechanism for delivering that change. Whether motivated by greener pastures or greener wallets, the open market is the NBA's closest thing to a matchmaking service.
Each of the league's top 10 free agents have a case to give that service a try.
Some free-agent candidates are listed on the first slide as "going nowhere." They were excluded from consideration due to a variety of reasons. Some are restricted free agents whose clubs will almost certainly match any offers, while others, such as LeBron James, have unique reasons for staying put.
If there's any chance a top-tier player could be on the move, read on to see a potential rationale for doing so. Players listed were loosely—and subjectively—ranked according to their current ability to impact a game. Statistical production was considered, but so too was the possibility that a particular player (e.g. Kevin Love) would likely generate even better numbers in a different situation.
Going Nowhere
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These guys may technically be exploring their free-agent options this summer, but they're staying right where they are.
LeBron James
He just came back to Cleveland a summer ago, and it would look pretty flaky for him to ditch the Cavaliers (again) so soon. Besides, James and Co. lived up to expectations with an NBA Finals appearance, and his supporting cast is entering its prime. There's plenty to like about this situation.
Nevertheless, James has the option to opt in or out of his contract for next season, so there's always the chance he could renegotiate a more lucrative deal this summer or next.
Kawhi Leonard
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year doesn't seem particularly interested in even exploring his free-agent options. San Antonio is still a respectable franchise, and Leonard could anchor it on both ends of the floor for the foreseeable future.
Jimmy Butler
Like Leonard, Butler has distinguished himself as one of the league's very best up-and-coming swingmen. He's a beast on both ends of the floor, and the Chicago Bulls desperately need to keep him in place. As a restricted free agent, the organization will have the right to match whatever Butler is offered—and it will.
Tim Duncan
Unless he retires, Duncan will remain with the San Antonio Spurs. He's come way too far with the franchise to do anything else. A relocation scenario is about as close as it gets to sporting heresy.
Draymond Green
It's tempting to envision Green as some kind of savior for the Detroit Pistons (Green is from Michigan and competed collegiately at Michigan State), but he has no reason to leave the Golden State Warriors. They've been the best team in basketball all season long, and Green has been a huge part of that. He's found a new home, and the Warriors will treat him accordingly when it comes to the money, according to Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group.
10. Monta Ellis
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Monta Ellis' two seasons in Dallas have been consistent and highly successful. The 29-year-old could conceivably score 19 points per contest for another four to five years, and he'll be paid accordingly if he decides to opt out of his contract and become a free agent this summer. The question is whether the Mavericks will be the ones paying.
On paper, it's sort of hard to imagine general manager Donnie Nelson finding a better replacement at the shooting guard position, but the organization has other needs at the center and point guard spots. Ellis may become a casualty of a grander plan in the event the Mavs finally land a prized free agent.
There are other teams that would value Ellis more. Imagine what he'd do for the Memphis Grizzlies' offense, for instance. He would also anchor most offenses in the Eastern Conference. Virtually any team could use him as a pricey sixth man, a situation that could really exploit his combo-guard sensibilities.
So there will be opportunities for Ellis, perhaps better ones than Dallas, which has been pretty good to him. Here's how ESPN.com's Marc Stein described his situation:
"Word is he's not looking to leave Dallas, where he remade his reputation with last season's strong showing before this season's ups and downs, but Ellis also has the ability to opt out and become a free agent after playing for the (relative) bargain price of $8 million (and change) in each of the past two seasons.
Passing on the opportunity to test the market and see if he can land a more lucrative annual salary might be hard to resist. The Mavs themselves, according to our own Tim MacMahon, are working through their own conflicted feelings about Ellis' future with the club.
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If the organization is indeed having "conflicted feelings," that would ostensibly complicate its willingness to give Ellis the raise he's expecting. Ellis will find comfort, familiarity and solid success in Dallas. But he could likely make more money elsewhere, and he just might join a winner in the process.
9. Al Jefferson
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The Charlotte Hornets showed some signs of life a season ago, but who honestly thinks this team will radically improve in the next season or two? Lance Stephenson was supposed to be the missing ingredient, but even Mo Williams' inspired play wasn't enough to save this team down the stretch. It needs a lot of help, and Al Jefferson probably knows that.
In a league that still values post-scorers, Jefferson is a commodity. According to HoopsHype, he owns a player option worth $13.5 million to play for Charlotte again next season, but he should be able to make comparable money elsewhere. And if he's willing to be flexible, he could almost certainly find room on a playoff-bound team. He'd be a solid consolation prize for teams like the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, both of which are likely to target other bigs such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol and DeAndre Jordan.
One could also imagine Jefferson replacing Paul Millsap in Atlanta if the Hawks opted to deploy a bigger lineup. Outside of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls, what Eastern Conference team doesn't have room for someone like Jefferson?
The trick will be getting the price right, but a four-year deal worth $10-14 million annually would be pretty reasonable in the eyes of the average GM.
8. Greg Monroe
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Greg Monroe was essentially humoring Detroit Pistons fans this season, giving them a few more mostly mediocre memories before the summer inevitably came. Now he'll get his wish: an emergency exit, perhaps to an immediately competitive team, maybe to one with a brighter near-term future. Either way, it will be a better situation.
The Pistons do offer Monroe one thing: virtually limitless opportunity. This could be his team if he so desired. He could be a huge part of the hypothetical solution.
Even with head coach Stan Van Gundy steadying the ship, however, the waters will remain rough in these parts for the foreseeable future. Monroe appears to be in no mood to wait things out.
The answer to Monroe's prayers isn't immediately obvious. If the money works, he'd conceivably be a very nice addition to any Western Conference contender, save perhaps the already loaded Golden State Warriors.
Several teams—such as the Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies—may be losing big men of their own (LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan and Marc Gasol, respectively), and Monroe might fit as a replacement in each scenario—though his skills may overlap with Blake Griffin and Zach Randolph a bit.
But "better than Detroit" isn't a particularly high bar. Monroe had his chance to make a long-term commitment to the organization and passed. Now he'll find a better situation on the open market.
7. Brook Lopez
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Brooklyn Nets GM Billy King indicated the team wants to keep center Brook Lopez, according to ESPN.com's Mike Mazzeo, but you have to wonder if the feeling is mutual after three empty playoff runs. The talented scorer could almost certainly latch on to a better team, perhaps even an emerging Eastern Conference rival such as the Milwaukee Bucks or Atlanta Hawks.
Many good teams could use an offensive weapon of Lopez's stature, so Brooklyn will have competition. The Stanford product will have to turn down a player option worth nearly $17 million, according to HoopsHype, but he'd be guaranteeing himself more long-term contractual security in the process.
If money is especially important to Lopez, the Nets have an advantage in their ability to offer him a longer and richer contract than any of other suitors. But at 27, Lopez is coming into his prime, and winning may become a more significant factor in his thinking.
The Nets aren't a bad team, but they aren't getting much better any time soon either. That has to weigh on a player of Lopez's caliber. He'll be in his 30s when his next contract ends, and his services may be in less demand. Now could be his best chance to find a winner with legitimate title aspirations.
6. Goran Dragic
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Goran Dragic has said all the right things as far as the Miami Heat are concerned.
"As long as I'm in a happy environment and a healthy organization, that’s the most important thing," the 29-year-old told reporters in May. "The next three, four, five years—I want to spend it on this kind of team, like the Miami Heat. They have great players, great coaching staff and great training staff."
It wasn't the first time Dragic had indicated a desire to return, either. He really likes it in Miami. But that could change if the Heat take a significant step back, and that could happen if Dwyane Wade decides to finally move on.
"We are monitoring closely what's going on. Wade is a very important piece for Miami's future. He's a superstar," said Dragic's agent, Rade Filipovich, via the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson. "Goran wants Wade to stay. But it's my opinion. I can't answer for Goran. It's not the focus for Goran."
Not the focus, perhaps, but undoubtedly, it's on Dragic's radar. If Wade leaves Miami, Dragic would be better off virtually anywhere. You don't want to be around when something like that goes down.
5. DeAndre Jordan
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It's a bit hard to imagine DeAndre Jordan leaving after another accomplished season with the Los Angeles Clippers. They may never be the Lakers, but this team is awfully good. If two classic seven-game series in these playoffs were any evidence, this team will remain highly competitive against the very best squads in the Western Conference.
That has to be pretty persuasive to Jordan. Why break up a core that's still relatively young?
If there's one reason for Jordan to leave, it's that this team may have gone as far as it can go. He may be convinced that the Clippers experiment has run its course.
There has to be some explanation for reports that he's intrigued by the possibility of signing with the Dallas Mavericks. Here's how ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon assessed the situation:
"Of course, the Clippers would prefer to keep DeAndre Jordan, the third-team All-NBA big man who ranks right up there with perennial All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge as the Mavs’ top targets in free agency. However, Jordan intends to consider all of his options and has privately made it clear that he’s highly intrigued by the possibility of coming to Dallas as a featured attraction for the Mavs.
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According to InsideSoCal.com's Robert Morales, the Clippers are reportedly planning on offering Jordan a maximum contract this summer, but he's an unrestricted free agent. If he's determined to go to Dallas, he can.
It's a bit hard to argue that the Mavericks offer a superior opportunity to win, however. If Jordan makes that jump, one can only imagine his reasoning at this point. Los Angeles has made Jordan into something of a star, and there's no end to his ascent in sight.
4. Dwyane Wade
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It's unthinkable. At least it once seemed that way.
The idea of Dwyane Wade leaving the Miami Heat only recently became imaginable, and it hinges on reports that he wants an average of $20 million annually over the next three seasons.
According to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, "A Wade associate has told people that Wade would welcome a contract averaging $20 million annually over the next three years. If that's true, it would be understandable, considering the year 13-15 pay ranges for Duncan and Nowitzki."
Jackson added that Wade's agent hasn't commented on the issue, but no one from Wade's camp has denied the report. If that's more money than Miami's willing to commit, Wade could well pursue one more title elsewhere if or when he declines his $16.1 million player option. A return to Chicago would make for some special headlines, but it's virtually impossible for the Bulls to create the requisite financial flexibility.
But a still-formidable team such as the Dallas Mavericks could cough up big money in the event Ellis parts ways with the club. The New York Knicks would love another star to pair with Carmelo Anthony, and the Atlanta Hawks would be an intriguing destination (a team that just happens to have serious cap room).
It would take some getting used to, but Wade has all the leverage here. Team president Pat Riley and Co. will probably find a way to pay him the especially big bucks, but anything can happen if they don't.
3. Kevin Love
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Something strange has happened in the wake of Kevin Love's untimely shoulder injury. The Cleveland Cavaliers have realized they can make it to the NBA Finals without the 26-year-old. Love has been exposed as being expendable, which is all the more striking given that he's likely to cost quite a bit more than replacement power forward Tristan Thompson.
Love could simply remain with the club by exercising his $16.7 million player option. He's indicated that he wants to stay, but he's also said some conversations with the organization will take place. Asked if he wants to return to the Cavaliers, Love told ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne, "Yes. I want to win."
Then he got philosophical when discussing why speculation about his future persists.
"It's just the way the world works now," Love added. "People talk so much and might tell themselves a lie so much they start to believe it. From there, the narrative starts to change. I haven't changed my narrative. I'm going to keep supporting these guys, and we'll be talking to Cleveland after the season."
Returning would be the surest path to winning, but it would also be a premature end to Love's legacy as a legitimate star. No matter how good he was in Minnesota, he's been a complementary player in Cleveland and borderline expendable with the emergence of Thompson, Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith as key pieces of the rotation.
If Love wants to make an impact and be remembered as more than a third option, he should go elsewhere. He could go to the Los Angeles Lakers with the assurance that general manager Mitch Kupchak would build around him. He would be the centerpiece of basketball's premier franchise and—in time—probably win some games, too.
This is a career-defining decision for Love. Does he want to be a superstar or a member of LeBron James' ever-talented supporting cast?
One gets why Love wants to win after all those years with the Timberwolves. But now may be his last chance to win in L.A. and build his brand to new heights.
2. Marc Gasol
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Marc Gasol has left the door ever so cracked. His love for this Memphis Grizzlies franchise is evident, and it's probably enough to keep him around for another contract (or two).
But his most recent rumination on free agency conceded that winning a ring was at least part of his bottom line. He also had a few things to say about his city preference, or lack thereof, during an interview with Catalan radio station RAC1 (via EuroHoops' Aris Barkas):
"The reality for me at the moment is Memphis. I got there when I was 16, and I'm 30 years old. It's important for me, personally and in sports terms. I'm in front of an important decision for the upcoming 4 or 5 years. I'll take it quietly, without drama. There are many things to evaluate: personal goals, the ring. ... The city isn't so important like it was in Pau's case. My brother had other needs. People with sons knows how this works. I don't have time to go to the opera, or to the theater. New York is nice but it was very cold during the All Star Game. San Antonio, L.A, Atlanta...there's good things everywhere. I have a simple life: at home, the arena, the supermarket. Memphis is quiet. In Fort Yukon, Alaska, I would also be happy.
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This isn't the first time Gasol has suggested a Memphis exit would be difficult. There is, however, some question about whether the Grizzlies have more or less reached their ceiling. The current core—including point guard Mike Conley and forward Zach Randolph—has been plenty successful, but it may be as good as it's going to get.
Gasol could benefit from a roll of the dice, a new situation with a bit more talent and depth. Perhaps that's the San Antonio Spurs. Maybe it's the Dallas Mavericks. There are destinations with personnel that certainly rival Memphis' rotation. If Gasol believes his chances of winning a ring are significantly better elsewhere, he could surprise everyone and make the move.
Now would almost certainly be the time to do so. The 30-year-old is coming off his best all-around season and is in the prime of his seven-year career. He should remain a difference-maker for the duration of his next contact, but there are few guarantees after that.
That urgency is the one thing working against Memphis, which has only been to the conference finals once during its five-year stretch of postseason appearances. With Dallas and San Antonio still possessing some vestige of championship pedigree, Gasol may well find greener pastures elsewhere—in spite of the undeniable fact that Memphis' have been pretty green.
1. LaMarcus Aldridge
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The Portland Trail Blazers are a good team. But even in the wake of a seven-game defeat in the opening round against the Los Angeles Clippers, the San Antonio Spurs are a potentially great team. So it should come as no surprise that the two sides are being linked in one of the offseason's early headlines.
CBSSports.com's Ken Berger put San Antonio's approach this way:
"The free-agent plan for the Spurs is to quickly agree on a five-year max deal with [Kawhi] Leonard—"It will be a short conversation," one person with knowledge of the dynamics said—and empower Leonard to join Duncan in an all-out recruitment of All-Star free agent LaMarcus Aldridge, league sources told CBSSports.com.
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Berger adds that, "The Spurs will feel out Memphis center Marc Gasol, too, but the prevailing belief now is that Aldridge is more likely to change teams."
His links to Texas help San Antonio's case, as does the franchise's status as this generation's closest thing to a dynasty this side of the now-defunct Los Angeles Lakers. Aldridge could co-star in Tim Duncan's twilight, eventually taking ownership of the club alongside Leonard. There's a lot to like about Damian Lillard, but there may be even more to like about Leonard and his incredible two-way pedigree.
San Antonio also has a way of finding talent in unlikely places, from the bargain bin of free agency (Danny Green) to draft selections at the end of the first round (Tony Parker). So long as general manager R.C. Buford oversees the talent-acquisition process, Aldridge would be in the safest of hands—to say nothing of what head coach Gregg Popovich's mentorship might mean.
Other teams could certainly get in on the bidding. Players of Aldridge's ilk are pretty rare. He can play the 4 or 5 and shoot from beyond the arc, though his preference is to operate from the mid-range.
Aldridge means a lot to the Portland franchise, so his departure is no guarantee. It would make for one of the summer's steamier storylines, though.
