Is Sergio Llull Answer to Houston Rockets' Need at Point Guard?
The Houston Rockets need a new starting point guard and alternate shot creator alongside James Harden. Sergio Llull is on their radar.
Everything else about him might be swirling with questions, but that much is not.
Who is Llull? (Pronounced “You’ll,” as in you’ll be happy if he signs and not “Lull” as in, he’ll fill the “lull” in the offense.) Why do the Rockets have his rights? Is he coming over? Is he the answer to their need at point guard? Is he worth the cost?
Who Is He?
The combo guard currently starting for Real Madrid Whites stands 6’3” and weighs 209 pounds, per Eurobasket.com.
His numbers aren’t particularly eye-popping, but the shooting percentages are solid. Per Basketball-Reference.com, in 445 career Euroleague games, he’s averaged 15.3 points, 4.7 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals. He is 38.0 percent from three and 52.8 percent from two. The three-point percentage doesn’t seem exceptional, but as you’ll see later, a good volume of his shots are pull-up jumpers.
He’s 27 years old, and he’s been playing professional basketball since 2005-06. His Wikipedia entry lists his accomplishments, which include one Euroleague championship (2015), one All-Euroleague Second Team (2011), a Spanish King’s Cup MVP (2012), two All-Spanish League Teams (2012, 2015) and a Spanish Supercup MVP (2014).
With a history like that, he would be a rookie in name only. Thus, there shouldn’t be concerns over whether Kevin McHale—who has given freshmen limited minutes historically—would play him.
Is He Coming to Houston?
Llull was originally drafted by the Denver Nuggets on June 25, 2009, with the 34th pick. However, he was promptly sold to the Rockets for $2.25 million, the most money ever paid for a second-round pick, per Ryan Dunsmore of The Dream Shake.
On March 20, Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported, after watching Llull in person:
"His NBA rights, however, belong to the Houston Rockets, who have been trying for years to convince Llull to make the jump. And there is some fresh talk that next season -- finally -- Llull will give strong consideration to joining the Gasol brothers and the rest of the Spanish armada playing Stateside.
One well-placed source told me in Spain: There’s a “pretty decent” chance Llull agrees to sample the NBA next season.
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On March 26, O. Cauchi of Sportnado translated the news from Javier Maestro of Encestando.es (h/t Dan Feldman, ProBasketballTalk):
"According to Spanish website Encestando, The Houston Rockets are willing to offer a three-year deal, worth around 17 mln, to Spanish guard Sergio Llull, currently playing for Real Madrid. Such an offer would add up to the rough equivalent of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, as noticed by Hoopsrumors.
Daryl Morey was in Madrid two weeks ago and spoke with Llull and his agent about this possibility. Llull is under contract with Real Madrid until 2019 and there’s a very high buyout on the deal, at least 4.5 mln.
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And then more recently, on June 3, McHale made waves in announcing his desire to see Llull added to the roster during an interview with Sports Talk 790’s Charlie Pallilo (h/t Max Croes from The Dream Shake). He said “We’d love to bring over Sergio Llull from Spain” and “Signing a Sergio Lull would be huge.”
However, Piratas del Basket (via Fox Sports) reported on June 4 that Llull says he is happy where he is. “I’m flattered that there’s talk about me, but I’m happy in Madrid and I have a multi-year contract.”
Of course, that’s what any player is going to say in the middle of a tournament when their name is coming up in rumors. The denials may be sincere, or they may just be politicking.
There’s been enough smoke that there’s at least enough chance to explore the possibility of fire.
Is He the Answer?
That leaves the last two questions as the most important. Is he the answer? And is he worth the reported three-year, $17 million deal?
I’m not going to pretend that I’m an expert on European basketball, but I can do research and put things together. Here are my gleanings from the web.
First, Jonatan Givony of Draft Express wrote back in 2009:
"46% of Llull’s offense comes in pick and roll situations, which should tell you quite a bit the role he plays for his team. He’s clearly their most creative force, the best athlete on the team and an incessant shot-creator. His excellent first step and strong ball-handling skills allow him to pick apart defenses extremely well, going either left or right, which also makes him a dangerous threat in transition.
He’s been featured on a number of ACB league highlight reels this season because of his ability to drive down the lane at full speed and throw down impressive dunks. Even if he looks a bit wild at times, he’s managed to keep his turnovers extremely low all season considering his style of play, which is a big reason he’s earned so much trust from his coaching staff. In fact, he ranks 3rd in the ACB in assist to turnover ratio, and 5th in the Euroleague. His pure point ratio (PPR) also ranks in the top 5 in both leagues.
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In 2010, then-Rockets VP of Basketball Operations Sam Hinkie broke down this film, explaining what the Rockets saw worthy of such a big investment when they bought his rights from the Nuggets:
Then there was this profile piece on him (take note of the numerous ridiculous three-point shots off the dribble) from Euroleague Basketball in 2014:
Finally, in his aforementioned piece, Stein observed:
"Llull is a combo guard who loves to score first but can do much more when he’s on the ball these days for Real Madrid than he did back then for the national team, which for the past several years could always turn to the likes of Jose Calderon, Juan Carlos Navarro and Ricky Rubio for quarterbacking. Llull’s role is much bigger with the Spanish club giants in Madrid, who have him under contract through 2018 and to whom Llull (pronounced YOU’LL) has always proclaimed the deepest of affections.
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So what can we glean from all this? First, he’s grown as a player over the years since Houston first bought his rights.
Second, the things Llull does well is exactly what Houston is looking for. He’s not a pure point guard, but the Rockets really aren’t looking for a pure point. Harden is their de facto point guard.
Houston wants a guy who can either run the offense or play off Harden. Llull fits that mold perfectly. He’s great off the dribble or the catch-and-shoot.
While I didn’t see too much on his defense, from what I was able to pick up, he’s aggressive, gets steals and likes to get out in transition. That’s another plus and another fit.
Finally he can hit pull-up threes, which is a massive plus for the Morey philosophy of heavy three-point shooting. With Harden currently the only Rocket who can do that, that would be a major asset.
Is He Worth It?
The one caveat to all this is that the money being discussed is the rough equivalent of the mid-level exception, which is also the best way for the Rockets to extend that kind of offer. Alternatively they could let Kostas Papanikolaou go and forego all their Bird rights. But the price of that is way too heavy, and nothing is gained by doing it.
Using the mid-level exception on Llull could mean letting go of standout power forward Josh Smith, for whom they only have non-Bird rights.
It’s possible Smith would give the Rockets a discount and sign using his non-Bird exception, which at 120 percent of his previous salary would mean $2.4 million. That’s not entirely unfeasible as the Rockets gave him a chance to redeem himself, and he’s still collecting $5.4 million a year from the Detroit Pistons until 2020. (Before proceeding I’ll pause and let you have a good belly laugh at that.)
But even if the hidden cost is Smith, Llull is worth considering. Finding just the right skill set is tough, and Llull has it. The Rockets would still have Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones and Papanikolaou to man the power forward position.
Staying over the cap would also allow the Rockets to use their Bird rights to retain Corey Brewer, Patrick Beverley and K.J. McDaniels. The worst-case scenario of the fallout financially is that the Rockets climb slightly into the tax for one year. They could still waive Papanikolaou or trade him for a future pick to cut costs if that were the case.
However, with the cap exploding next year, salaries will balloon, and thus, virtually any long-term contract signed this year is going to be below market value in two years.
In sum, Llull, if he decides to come over, is a perfect fit for great value. While there’s always a gamble with European players adapting to the NBA, as well as there being something of a learning curve, Llull seems to be a high-reward, low-risk type of bet, and one that’s well worth taking.
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