Which Texas College Football Team Is Most Likely to Reach the Playoff First?

There are 12 Division I Football Bowl Subdivision teams in Texas, and not all of them are created equally in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee. For that matter, only a few of the Power Five Texas schools are playoff-ready in 2015. 

Interestingly enough, the Texas team that could be the first to reach the playoff is the one that felt it was wrongly omitted last year: TCU. 

The Horned Frogs carry over a ton of momentum from last year's team. Practically the entire offense will return, led by preseason Heisman candidate, quarterback Trevone Boykin. That was a group that finished second in the nation with 46.5 points per game. 

The leader in that category? Baylor, of course, with 48.2 points per game. Certainly, the Nov. 27 game between TCU and Baylor has Big 12 and playoff implications written all over it. If nothing else, those are the two Texas teams projected to have the best records in 2015. 

Both teams were left out of the playoff last year, in large part because the conference 1) lacked a championship game and 2) botched the whole "One True Champion" motto by having a hands-off approach with its co-champions. Those were reasons straight from the mouths of committee members Barry Alvarez and Jeff Long. 

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Still, after some consideration about a conference championship game, the Big 12 has decided to keep things the same schedule-wise. There will be no additional game for the Big 12 in the near future.

"I’m not sensing that’s where we’re headed," said commissioner Bob Bowlsby last month, per George Schroeder of USA Today. 

Keeping the status quo after one year in the playoff era is a smart move. Overreacting is always the popular decision, but there's no telling yet how the committee will rank teams in year two, year three and so on. Put another way, there isn't a formula per se, which is what college football had with the BCS. Love it or hate it, that's what makes this postseason system unique from its predecessor. 

Thus, trying to fit a certain model after one season is hasty—not to mention Bowlsby and Co. would have looked like geniuses if any of the playoff teams from the other power conferences lost in their respective conference titles. But that didn't happen, and the Big 12 ended up with egg on its face. 

(If the exact same thing happens again in 2015, then it would be time for the Big 12 front office to revisit things.) 

That brings us back to Baylor and TCU, two teams that will be early favorites to win the Big 12 again. The route to the playoff is the same. What could be different is how the Bears and Frogs are viewed, but we'll find out for sure in six months. 

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It's unlikely that both teams will make the playoff. That's just straight up difficult to do mathematically because the top of college football is so good. Choosing one is a close call, but ultimately, the Frogs have two things working in their favor.

First, TCU gets Baylor at home. As far as revenge games go, this helps. There have been a couple of interesting trends in this rivalry over the past few years. The first is that three of the last five meetings, including last year's come-from-behind thriller, were decided by three points or less. And Baylor won all three. However, until last season, the Bears have struggled mightily on the road against ranked opponents under head coach Art Briles.

Secondly, TCU, should it win the head-to-head, has one solid out-of-conference game (at Minnesota). The Gophers could always bomb, of course, but for now, that beats out what Baylor has on the schedule. 

As we've seen recently, Baylor has upped the scheduling ante because it's clear it won't be able to skate by on a nonconference schedule that has zero respectable opponents—at least not without going undefeated. David Ubben of Fox Sports explained: 

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When the Bears signed up to play Utah in 2023 and 2024, I sensed the program's love of nonconference schedules about as fearsome and ferocious as a bassinet full of golden retriever puppies was disintegrating. 

Still, after the past few years, it was hard to believe what I was hearing from Ian McCaw on Thursday. The Bears are actively looking to upgrade their schedule as early as 2016, and are interested in playing a neutral site game on the season's opening weekend sometime between then and 2020. He also said they're currently engaged in "two or three discussions" about future games. 

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Until Baylor gets at least one decent nonconference game, the head-to-head result against the Frogs is what will matter. Remember, this is the Big 12's official tiebreaker stance now. So, consider this an early prediction that TCU will win on Thanksgiving weekend.

That stance is bound to change, of course. Summertime predictions are flimsy. They're made of wax and feathers, and we're all arrogantly flying a bit too close to the sun, anyway. 

On the Outside

Houston: First-year head coach Tom Herman inherits a team that's ready to compete for an American Athletic Conference championship. Add in the fact that the league now has a conference championship game, and a 13-0 Houston could be an interesting playoff-buster candidate. Nothing less than an undefeated season would get the Cougars into the playoff because the schedule isn't particularly daunting. However, the two toughest games on paper, versus Louisville and Central Florida, are on the road. Plus, Navy is usually a marquee game. 

Herman has shown his recruiting chops by landing verbal commitments from blue-chip defensive linemen Ed Oliver and Jordan Elliott, but they won't contribute until 2016 at the earliest. Houston has a veteran roster for 2015, so it could be a few years before it's in this position again. 

Texas: Louisville's recent NFL draft success should have Texas fans excited about what head coach Charlie Strong can do for this program. However, Strong took over a team with myriad problems, and he's building things his way. That'll take time. With so many key defenders gone from last year's team, things could stay where they are (or get worse) before they get better. Strong's resume speaks for itself, but he has to crush it on the in-state recruiting trail. Getting linebacker Malik Jefferson, the No. 1 player in Texas for 2015, helps, but there's room to grow. 

The Longhorns are a few years away from competing for a Big 12 title, let alone being one of the four best teams in the country at season's end. 

Texas A&M: We're approaching a fascinating time in College Station. In his first summer as head coach of the Aggies, Kevin Sumlin had to answer question after question about how tough the SEC was and whether A&M could win games. All the Aggies did in 2012 was go 11-2, beat Alabama on the road and produce a Heisman-winning quarterback in Johnny Manziel. 

Since then, though, A&M has gone backwards in the win column, and Sumlin is still making $5 million annually. Bringing in defensive coordinator John Chavis from LSU was the biggest assistant-coach hire of the offseason. There's plenty of talent on the roster on both sides of the ball—Sumlin has taken control of Texas recruiting over the past few years—so it's a matter of everything coming together. 

Can A&M make the playoffs with Sumlin? Absolutely, but it would require a five-game—maybe four-game—swing in one season to get there before Baylor or TCU. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.