Early Predictions for 2015 MLB All-Star Team Snubs
Just as surely as the MLB All-Star game arrives every July, there will surely be a handful of snubs—players deserving of the honor but left off the rosters for one reason or another.
Predicting those snubs more than a month out involves some guess work. We don't know who will get hot, cold or injured between now and the final selections, just as we don't know which fanbases will rock the vote.
But we have seen the second round of voting results from both the American League and National League, so we know which players would start the game if it were held tomorrow.
And we know which managers—Bruce Bochy of the San Francisco Giants and Ned Yost of the Kansas City Royals—will have a hand in picking the reserves.
Finally, we know the positions where the competition is thick—where there are simply too many quality options to invite everyone to Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark.
With all of that and a dash of gut feeling, let's run through some players who look like worthy All-Stars because of past pedigree and/or current performance but who could end up watching the Midsummer Classic from their couches like the rest of us.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
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First base in the NL might be the deepest position in either league. Adrian Gonzalez of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt of the Arizona Diamondbacks are currently the top two vote-getters, and both will surely make the team.
Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs also looks like a lock with the year he's having, and pencil in Joey Votto, who's enjoying a nice comeback season and would play in front of his home crowd in Cincinnati.
That leaves no room for the San Francisco Giants' Brandon Belt, though he has the numbers to justify a nod.
Entering play Thursday, Belt ranked fourth among NL first basemen in batting average (.306) and fifth in OPS (.914). And he's been especially hot since the beginning of May, clubbing all seven of his home runs and hiking his average nearly 70 points.
Lucas Duda of the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves' Freddie Freeman, who have similar numbers to Belt across the board, are also snub candidates. Belt might have the best odds of the three with his skipper heading up the NL squad, but they're still slim to none.
Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
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Mark Teixeira is enjoying a career renaissance at age 35, but it might not be enough to punch a ticket to Cincinnati.
As with the NL, the AL is blessed with an embarrassment of riches at first base. The Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera, Eric Hosmer of the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers' Prince Fielder are currently the top three in voting, and all three should make the team.
Teixeira is in the next tier, which includes the Los Angeles Angels' Albert Pujols and Cuban slugger Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox.
Teixeira has a strong case: He leads AL first basemen in home runs (16) and RBI (41). But his .241 average doesn't jump out, and if the AL carries four first basemen, it's easy to imagine a rising star like Abreu getting the nod.
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
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After two seasons tarnished by a performance-enhancing-drug suspension and diminished performance, Ryan Braun is back.
Through the Milwaukee Brewers' first 54 games, Braun has 12 home runs, putting him on pace to smack 36, his highest total since 2012.
"If it weren't for Bryce Harper, Brewers slugger Ryan Braun might be the hottest hitter in baseball," Jordan Schelling of the Green Bay Press-Gazette observed May 27. "But there's no shame here in second place."
When it comes to the NL outfield pecking order, Braun appears to be considerably lower than second.
Harper, Matt Holliday of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton would be the All-Star starters based on current voting.
The San Diego Padres' Justin Upton and the Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen slot in as likely reserves, assuming they don't climb the voting ladder, and mashing Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Joc Pederson is tough to ignore.
Does that leave room for Braun, especially considering he carries the lingering stain of PEDs?
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Josh Reddick, Oakland A's
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Josh Reddick might be a victim of two factors largely beyond his control: the wealth of worthy AL outfield candidates and the poor performance of the Oakland A's.
Two Kansas City Royals, Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon, join the Los Angeles Angels' Mike Trout atop the voting. The Baltimore Orioles' Adam Jones is a close fourth and deserves to be a starter.
After that, there's a gaggle of names, including the Boston Red Sox's Hanley Ramirez, Michael Brantley of the Cleveland Indians, the Tigers' Yoenis Cespedes, the Yankees' Jacoby Ellsbury, the Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Bautista—the list goes on.
Reddick is right there. In fact, his .890 OPS is second only to Trout's .932 among qualifying outfielders. (Nelson Cruz paces the field with a 1.009 OPS, but he's on the ballot as a designated hitter.)
Yet, whereas last year the division-leading A's sent six players to the All-Star Game, the basement-dwelling A's could see one of their best players snubbed this year.
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates
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What a great story it would be if A.J. Burnett made the All-Star team.
Through 17 seasons with the Florida Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies, Burnett flashed great promise and occasional brilliance.
But he also frequently failed to live up to his potential. Exhibit A: He's never played in an All-Star Game.
Could this be the year? Back with the Bucs, Burnett has the numbers, with the NL's sixth-best ERA (2.20) and 64 strikeouts in 69.2 innings pitched.
"If you ask me, one reason I'm doing so well is because I'm enjoying it," Burnett told Bleacher Report's Scott Miller. "I'm leaving it all on the field and enjoying every moment."
Jogging out between the lines in Cincinnati would be a moment to savor.
While it could happen, the 38-year-old Burnett may get squeezed out by a number of younger pitchers, including his teammate Gerrit Cole, who bests him in virtually every statistical category and is a contender to start the game.
Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
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Speaking of pitchers who could get squeezed by their rotation-mates: If there's room on the AL roster for two Tampa Bay Rays pitchers, Jake Odorizzi will make the cut.
If there's only room for one, however, it'll almost surely be Chris Archer, who at the moment ranks third in the AL with a 2.01 ERA and second in the league with 97 strikeouts.
Odorizzi's no slouch. The 25-year-old right-hander, who is in the midst of a breakout campaign, has displayed outstanding control with just 14 walks in 72.1 innings and, not surprisingly, is fifth in the AL with a 1.01 WHIP.
Then again, one of the names he's looking up at in that category, as in most others, is Archer.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
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The St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Carpenter is currently the NL's leading vote-getter at third base, with Kris Bryant sitting in second place. If Chicago Cubs fans don't push Bryant over the top, he might miss the cut entirely.
The Reds' Todd Frazier leads all NL third basemen with 16 home runs, and like Votto, he's got the hometown edge.
Defensive whiz Nolan Arenado has 13 long balls and paces NL third basemen with 39 RBI, and he could be the Colorado Rockies' lone representative (remember, every team gets one).
Bryant can force the issue with a few scalding weeks. But right now, while he's largely lived up to the hype with an .841 OPS, the Cubs phenom looks like the NL's odd man out at the hot corner.
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
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In most cases, a decorated veteran with career Hall of Fame numbers in the midst of a surprisingly solid season would be an All-Star Game shoo-in.
Alex Rodriguez isn't most cases.
To be fair, there's no way A-Rod deserves to start over Nelson Cruz, basher of baseballs, who rightly leads the DH voting.
Statistically, he's also a tick behind the Kansas City Royals' Kendrys Morales and the Baltimore Orioles' Jimmy Paredes.
Mostly, though, Rodriguez loses points for being the PED poster boy, a tarnished relic from baseball's shadowy past.
Yes, the 39-year-old three-time AL MVP is exceeding all expectations with 11 home runs and an .880 OPS after a yearlong suspension. He's also forcing the Yankees and MLB to confront some sticky, uncomfortable truths.
And it'll undoubtedly be easiest for everyone if he stays far, far away from the Midsummer Classic.
All statistics current as of June 4 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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