NBA 2015 Finals Roundtable: B/R Experts' Preview and Predictions
Two fanbases that haven't tasted victory in at least four decades.
Two of the NBA's biggest stars.
And seven games to decide the NBA title between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Does current MVP Stephen Curry have enough support to send former MVP LeBron James to his second straight loss in the championship round?
Or can Cleveland coach David Blatt squeeze enough out of the Cavs' supporting cast to help James deliver the title he hoped to bring Northeast Ohio when he returned last summer?
Bleacher Report NBA senior writers Howard Beck, Ric Bucher, Kevin Ding, Ethan Skolnick and Jared Zwerling analyze what they expect to see when the finals tip off June 4.
Which Player Creates the Bigger Matchup Problem: LeBron or Curry?
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Beck: Curry is certainly a big problem, because of his uncanny ability to shoot (and connect) from any distance, at any angle, no matter how closely he's guarded. He might be, as Celtics GM Danny Ainge recently stated, the greatest shooter of all time.
But James is the NBA's biggest matchup problem, period, with his freakish combination of size, strength, speed, agility and ball-handling skills. He's a point guard in a power forward's body. Draymond Green has the strength to defend James in the post but not the quickness to guard him on the perimeter. And James is equally dangerous as a passer.
The best the Warriors can do is force James into jump shots and hope his dismal postseason shooting continues.
Bucher: LeBron. Curry has made great strides in figuring out how to unlock himself from longer, taller, quicker defenders, but that remains a challenge for him without turning the ball over.
Finding the right combination of size and agility to stay in front of LeBron and not allow him to work around the rim unimpeded will be a challenge for the Warriors, as it has been for every Cavs opponent.
Ding: These guys were No. 2 (LeBron) and No. 1 (Curry) on my official NBA MVP ballot, and that was despite James taking it easy early in the season when he wasn't outright taking time off. James remains potent and productive—even as dangerous as Curry in his prime.
No matter whether James' jump shot is hot or cold, you have to load your defense up with layer upon layer (and keep all eyes on him) just to hope to keep him out of the paint. And the truth is LeBron is a better passer than Steph, making it even more imperative to carry out defensive rotations after you double-team.
Skolnick: Substitute any other player for Curry, and the answer would be the same. It's LeBron, of course.
Without question, Curry will be hard for the Cavaliers to handle, especially if they can't hide Kyrie Irving on someone else and Irving is still even the slightest bit hobbled. But James will have the ball in his hands at least as much as Curry does. While Curry's usage rate has increased in the postseason from 28.9 to 31.8, James' has jumped from 32.3 to 36.4, the highest of his playoff career.
And while James' recent relative inefficiency runs counter to his claim that he's better than ever, he still has the most multidimensional game going. Golden State has more capable defenders than most, but James, if he's decisive, may prove too quick for Green, too powerful for Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson and too spry for Andre Iguodala.
Zwerling: While Curry is a nightmare in transition and pick-and-rolls, LeBron wins this question for his 1-5 positional versatility on both ends of the court. He will be defended one-on-one by more Warriors players and be able to defend different positions, including being more effective in switch opportunities because of his size and quickness. And there's arguably no one better in transition defense and offense.
Also, because LeBron will get more looks closer to the basket in post-ups, his ability to pack the paint, draw double-teams and make passes out of them could create tougher rotations for the Warriors to cover backdoor cutting and player movement to the baseline corners.
What Are the Biggest X-Factors in the Series?
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Beck: For the Cavaliers, J.R. Smith's shooting. He is notoriously streaky—a nice way of saying "unreliable"—yet the Cavaliers absolutely need his scoring to offset the absence of Kevin Love and the diminished health of Kyrie Irving. No one else in LeBron James' supporting cast has the ability to explode for a 15-point quarter the way that Smith can.
On the Warriors' side, the X-factor might be foul trouble. They need Draymond Green on James as much as possible. If he gets into early foul trouble, it not only hurts their entire defensive scheme but robs the offense of a top playmaker and three-point shooter.
Bucher: 1. Can Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith negate the advantage Klay Thompson and Steph Curry have held over every other backcourt they've faced?
2. Can the Warriors keep Tristan Thompson from being a factor on the offensive glass?
3. If Shumpert and J.R. negate the Klay/Steph advantage, can Green and Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala take up the offensive slack, particularly from long range?
4. How much will the array of decent-sized, agile defenders the Warriors have to throw at LeBron wear him down and limit his offensive contribution?
Ding: Irving is the one and only chance Cleveland has to shock everyone and win this series. He has to be heroic enough (quite possible), and he has to be healthy enough (probably not). Despite his resume as someone just making his playoff debut this season, Irving is a guy who loves the big stage. You don't just stumble into the NBA All-Star Game MVP trophy; you seize the opportunity amid serious competition.
The Cavaliers need Irving to take over with momentum-changing plays if their defense is faltering, LeBron's jumper is off or the Warriors' overwhelming Oracle Arena home-court advantage is kicking in.
Skolnick: Irving and Klay Thompson, simply because they're the ones entering with health questions.
David Blatt's admission that Irving's progress has been slow could be a smoke screen, or a way to protect Irving from outsized expectations. Or it could be the truth. And if he's too gimpy to stick with Curry, even for short stretches, the Cavaliers may not be able to overcome his defensive deficiencies even if he can provide some spot-up shooting on the other end.
Thompson's numbers tailed off in the second half of the season, and while he's shot 42.5 percent from deep in the playoffs, the concussion he suffered in the conference finals will be a concern until he gets through at least one game without trouble.
Zwerling: For the Warriors, it's their second unit. The Golden State bench has been utilized well and consistently and has had great success. As for the Cavaliers' X-factor, it has to be Kyrie Irving going up against the MVP, Curry. Will Irving be healthy enough to compete at a high level throughout the series?
Who Has the Coaching Advantage?
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Beck: On experience alone, David Blatt gets the nod. He's been coaching for 20 years (albeit not in the NBA) and has been wildly successful, winning multiple championships in Israel and Europe. There is little he hasn't seen.
But the matchup is more complex than that. Steve Kerr, while a coaching rookie, might have the best staff in the NBA, led by Alvin Gentry (one of the league's best offensive coaches) and Ron Adams (one of the league's top defensive coaches). There is no shortage of experience and wisdom on the Warriors bench. Kerr also has avoided the kind of public missteps that Blatt did this year.
Slight advantage to Golden State.
Bucher: The Warriors, as they've had against most teams this season. Adams and Gentry are as good a lead-assistants combo as you could ask for, and Kerr has won the Warriors' trust and confidence. You simply can't convince me that the Cavs, if asked to look toward LeBron or Blatt for direction at crunch time, won't turn their eyes to the former. As understandable as that is, it's not ideal.
Ding: Blatt was hired to coach a rebuilding team in Cleveland. Kerr had his pick of the New York Knicks' marquee or this championship-ready team with Golden State. There's no question who was in greater demand, and there's no reason to think Kerr will falter in the NBA Finals now.
Kerr not only learned about the need for execution over emotion in the NBA playoffs from Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich; he lived it as a player.
Skolnick: The two rookie coaches—as much as Blatt loathes that characterization—have made enough of the right moves to reach this point, with Blatt also fortunate that his second-round blunder (calling one timeout too many) didn't get in his way.
Blatt has found combinations that work in the absence of Kevin Love and with Irving aching, and he deserves credit for it. But Kerr has had complete mastery of his roster from the start of the season, and it's clear how much his players believe in him. So he gets the slight edge.
Zwerling: The fact that LeBron, who's now in his unprecedented fifth straight finals, is in Blatt's corner, tilts the edge to the Cavaliers.
LeBron, along with his veteran teammates who have been to the finals before, will be a big benefit to first-time finals coach Blatt and his staff as they prepare for Game 1 and make adjustments throughout the series. That experienced collective approach will be important among the staff and players.
What Team Must Make the Biggest Adjustments?
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Beck: Start with the Warriors, who have to decide how to handle LeBron James. If Draymond Green guards him, that leaves Harrison Barnes to check rebounding machine Tristan Thompson, which might be a problem.
On the Cavaliers' side, who guards Stephen Curry? Kyrie Irving is hobbled by knee and ankle issues, leaving him vulnerable. Iman Shumpert has the length to bother Curry, but that would leave Irving trying to guard the bigger, stronger Klay Thompson.
In general, the Warriors' depth and versatility give them a better chance to make adjustments throughout the series.
Bucher: I'd say it comes down to who is capable of making the biggest adjustments, and that's where the Warriors have an advantage.
I don't know how many different ways the Cavs can play—they either go big with Timofey Mozgov and Thompson or they play small with Thompson and LeBron. They can't go super-small with an array of shooters the way the Warriors can—Green at the 5, Andre Iguodala at the 4, Barnes, Klay Thompson and Curry—and it'll be interesting to see if the Warriors go with that lineup at some point.
Ding: No matter how strong the Cavaliers looked in the Eastern Conference playoffs, they never had to dig too deep into the strategy bin against the out-of-place Celtics, the dysfunctional Bulls and the overrated Hawks. This group hasn't been together long enough to make seamless adjustments on the fly, either. Scoring against Golden State's fantastic switching defense with so many mid-sized bodies to stay in front of James is going to be a daunting challenge for Cleveland.
The only major adjustment Golden State has to make is not being so tight if it gets a close game at home—and the Warriors learned about that from their one home loss to Memphis and the threats Houston's James Harden threw at them.
Skolnick: LeBron compels teams to make adjustments, and the Warriors will be no different. Still, the reason to say Golden State here is that the Cavaliers simply don't have enough options, at this stage, to try much of anything different.
Blatt has several veterans on his bench but doesn't seem inclined to play four of them much, if at all, and it's hard to see Mike Miller or Shawn Marion playing anything close to roles they've played in previous NBA Finals. Kerr's roster, meanwhile, allows him to slide between big, small and in between, and chances are he will try a little of everything.
Zwerling: The Cavaliers will be entering an arena for Games 1 and 2, and possibly 5 and 7, that is arguably the loudest in the NBA. It's a place where the home team has only lost three games all season, including the playoffs. That puts the onus on Cleveland.
Can the Cavaliers stay the course in a highly adverse road environment like that, against a deep offensive team that makes big runs with three-point shooting and has just as good of a defensive unit? How the Cavaliers manage Games 1 and 2 at Oracle could determine the series.
Who's Under the Most Pressure in This Series?
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Beck: LeBron James, always and forever. He's trying to end a city's 51-year championship drought. He carries the hopes of an entire region. And he's forever battling the specter of Michael Jordan.
If James loses, critics will howl about his 2-4 record in the finals. No one will care that he didn't have Kevin Love, or that the Cavs' supporting cast ranks among the worst in 30 years.
If the Warriors lose, it will be an upset because of their superior record and talent. But few expected them to be here. And though it's been 40 years since the Bay Area celebrated an NBA title, the region has enjoyed plenty of sporting success via the 49ers, Giants, A's and Raiders. The pressure just isn't the same.
Bucher: The team with the best record, reigning MVP and home-court advantage will always have the most pressure.
Some Cleveland fans took exception to me saying they've already won, but considering the injuries and overall expectations, making the finals is a huge accomplishment in itself. No one should fault LeBron or the Cavs if they don't win the series.
The Warriors, on the other hand, will be critiqued, fairly or otherwise, as having stumbled at the last step of the journey.
Ding: This will be Stephen Curry's first mainstream superstar moment. He will in all likelihood rocket from NBA MVP to simply off the charts—with his daughter Riley and wife Ayesha, with his babyface and fan-friendly game. But if Curry suffers some shocking shooting slump and loses this series, everyone will view him in a different light.
The thing is, there's a reason Curry is expected to win. I'm not convinced even James, in his first year back in Cleveland and with this thrown-together roster, feels pressure to win, and that's not necessarily good for bringing the best out in him.
Skolnick: LeBron, as always. It's silly to hold his NBA Finals record against him; he has been subpar by his standards in only two of the four series defeats (2007 and 2011). And in 2007, considering the state of Cleveland's lineup, he could put up 50 every night against the Spurs and it might not have mattered.
But context rarely matters when it comes to the sport's most scrutinized star, so it won't even if he's something close to exceptional again, but his team still comes up short.
Zwerling: LeBron, no question. He's the most scrutinized NBA player and has a host of haters who want to see him fail going up against the underdog in Curry, who became the MVP and a fan favorite this season.
As for Curry, there's a bigger cushion, as it's his first trip to the finals. Only a sweep or 4-1 loss could hurt his image, but not much, and it wouldn't be a hit like Chris Paul has gotten.
On the flip side, a collapse by the Cavaliers—even without Kevin Love and possibly a semi-healthy Irving—would destroy LeBron among fans and in the media.
Who Has the Potential to Emerge as a Breakout Star?
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Beck: I think Riley Curry already has this title wrapped up. On the court, I'd expect Draymond Green and J.R. Smith to take full advantage of the finals spotlight.
Green gets the unenviable assignment of guarding James, so any success he has will be magnified by a factor of 10. And casual fans will come to appreciate his shooting and playmaking. He's also a first-class interview and smack-talker who enjoys needling the opponent.
Smith will dazzle with a variety of ridiculous shots and at least one three-point shooting binge. Smith is also a candid and colorful interview subject and serial Instagrammer.
Bucher: Tristan Thompson, if he hasn't been one already for the Cavs. And since Harrison Barnes is the obvious choice for the Warriors, I'll go with a more subtle one in Shaun Livingston, who I could see posting up Matthew Dellavedova or whipping passes over the top of him with impunity.
Ding: With his muscleman poses after inside buckets, awesome motor and willing honesty in interviews, Green will win over all the casual fans who've never heard of him. Green should've been both Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player. The workmanlike Green's ability to stand up to the Chosen One with the championship on the line is an irresistible storyline and will resonate throughout the finals.
Skolnick: Can a Defensive Player of the Year runner-up and former Final Four participant be a breakout star? He can if most of the casual fans in the country don't really know him. Green is sure to introduce himself to an entirely new audience in this series, not just with his physical, emotional play but also his gift for gab, on the court and, undoubtedly, at the podium.
Zwerling: Dellavedova. Now a star in Cleveland, his defense against Stephen Curry—to aid Kyrie Irving—and three-point shooting off the ball could pay huge dividends in this series and make him a bigger household name.
Who'll Win, and Who Will Be Named Series MVP?
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Beck: Warriors in six games, based on their superior overall talent and depth. Stephen Curry takes the Finals MVP trophy to add to his regular-season MVP award and will soon be spotted at the Emeryville Ikea, shopping for a bigger trophy case.
Bucher: Warriors in seven, Chef Curry for MVP. The only way I can really see the Cavs winning is if it's a short series, and it's just hard for me to imagine a short series.
Ding: Warriors in five. Cleveland is outclassed here. Series MVP: Curry.
Skolnick: It is dangerous to bet against James, especially as an irritated underdog—which, by many accounts, he is—but it is equally unwise to underestimate the Warriors simply because of their complete lack of finals experience or because they can be written off as a one-year regular-season wonder. They have the deeper, better roster here, and have something the Hawks didn't: shot-makers who can create when the Cavaliers defense, as it's done in the playoffs, clamps down. Including Curry, who will be the MVP.
On the other side, the Cavaliers have James for sure, and J.R. Smith (on some nights) and possibly Irving, though the latter's status is in question.
So let's say Warriors in six, with a celebration in Cleveland but not for the team of the locals' choosing.
Zwerling: The Warriors in six games, and Curry as MVP.
All statistics via Basketball-Reference.
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