Full Scouting Report for the New York Knicks' Top 2015 Draft Targets
The New York Knicks need to upgrade their talent. Everywhere. So no position should be out of play when it comes to the No. 4 pick in the 2015 NBA draft.
The only player Phil Jackson has to figure in New York's future plans is Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is almost untradeable because of his max contract, which has him signed on through 2017-18 with a player option in 2018-19.
But even with Anthony's stranglehold on at least one starting spot in New York's lineup, his ability to play either forward position allows the Knicks to go with the best available player—even if that's a small forward.
Let's take a look at the realistic targets at No. 4 and how each might fit with the Knicks.
The Favorite: Emmanuel Mudiay
Mudiay is the guy most mock drafts have had the Knicks taking. There's a consensus top four players in the draft—Karl Anthony-Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell and Mudiay—and the other three figure to go in the first three picks, leaving New York with the consolation prize of Mudiay.
The upside for Mudiay is intriguing. He's a candidate for the the genetic super freak point guard category—a group that includes John Wall, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. Those three have helped to change how the position is viewed, and Mudiay is perceived as that kind of athlete.
What Mudiay did this last year is hard to compare to his peers because he played professionally in China and only played in 12 games because of an ankle injury. His numbers (18.0 PPG, 5.9 APG and 6.3 RPG) were impressive, but the element of unknown makes him the riskiest of the top four, which is why it's hard to believe he'll crack the top three.
The reason New York might also pass could have less to do with his abilities and more with fit. Jackson has rarely had a pure point guard as the starter in the triangle offense. Instead, it's usually been a plug-and-play guy with a premium put on defensive ability over offense. Ron Harper and Derek Fisher are great examples. If whoever filled that spot was a shooter or had scoring ability, that was a bonus.
Mudiay could fit the defensive initiative, as he projects as one of the best defensive guards in this draft. He's big (6'5") and moves his feet well.
Offensively, Mudiay is an average outside shooter at best—34.2 percent from beyond the arc in China—but he could be utilized as a cutter in the triangle. His slashing and ability to create early offense in transition could also help the Knicks get to the free throw line more frequently after ranking second-to-last in free throw attempts this past season.
The Defense-First Pick
Back in early April in an event for season-ticket holders, Jackson said that he values defense over offense at the center position, via the New York Times. If you want to take Jackson at his word, the Knicks selecting Willie Cauley-Stein would make sense.
Cauley-Stein is the best defender in this draft and shares a lot in common with Tyson Chandler. It's worth noting that Jackson traded Chandler last summer, but it's also worth mentioning that the best Knicks season in recent memory (the 2012-13 team that won 54 games) featured Chandler anchoring the defense.
With the frequency of ball screens in the NBA, Cauley-Stein could be one of the most valuable defenders in the league. Kentucky's coaches trusted his defensive abilities on the perimeter so much that they regularly had him switch on big-little ball screens.
Cauley-Stein is also a valuable rim-protector and shot-blocker. Playing next to Karl Anthony-Towns hurt his shot-blocking numbers this year, but he was one of the nation's best shot-blockers the previous season—ranking 12th nationally in block percentage as a sophomore, per kenpom.com.
The knocks on Cauley-Stein are his offensive ability and approach to the game. He's a character and a great quote, but his passion to play the game hasn't always been there. One scout interviewed by Bleacher Report went as far as saying Cauley-Stein "doesn't really like basketball."
Offensively, Cauley-Stein was never a go-to guy at Kentucky and never will be in the league, but he does provide value as a rim-runner and a roller in the pick-and-roll, similar to someone like Chandler. He's also capable of knocking down the occasional mid-range jumper, and his form is not awful.
The Knicks could certainly use a defensive weapon. They had the third-worst defensive efficiency in the league (107.2 points per 100 possessions), but again, they need help in just about every capacity.
If the Knicks Go with a Forward...
One of the safest picks the Knicks could make here is to go with Duke wing Justise Winslow. If Fisher were to make Winslow a starter, that would likely require moving Anthony to power forward. But would that be such a bad thing?
Anthony played at that spot when he was on the Olympic team and also played a lot of power forward in 2012-13 when the Knicks won their division and made the Eastern Conference semis.
Winslow is only 6'6", but he also can play both forward positions. He thrived in a small-ball lineup playing power forward for Duke this year—coincidentally, it was the success Mike Krzyzewski had with Anthony that convinced him to use a small-ball four more frequently at Duke in recent years.
It may be tough to envision Winslow sliding over to the 4 in the NBA because of his height, but he has the strength to bang with bigger players. Winslow was willing and able to do just about anything to contribute to winning at Duke, and that's what could make him such a valuable commodity. He can affect the game in a variety of ways outside of scoring.
Whether Winslow will be a good scorer in the league is probably the biggest question mark surrounding his game. He showed an improved shooting stroke at Duke (41.8 percent from distance), but does he have the range to consistently knock down an NBA three?
He also had nice moments as a slasher at Duke, which created the absurd comparisons to James Harden. But Winslow's handle and creativity are not even close to Harden's.
The most intriguing scoring forward might just be Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis averaged 11.0 points per game and shot 35.9 percent from deep for Baloncesto Sevilla last season, and he's 7'1". But if defense is a priority for the Knicks, he's probably too frail to be an impact defender right away.
His ability to pass the ball, which is important in the triangle offense, could also scare the Knicks. In 92 games over the last three years, he had 39 assists and 99 turnovers.
The other power forward option the Knicks could consider is Trey Lyles. This would seem like a reach, but Frank Isola of the New York Daily News recently reported that the team has been enamored with Lyles for months.
Lyles, like Winslow, played both forward spots at Kentucky. Unlike Winslow, he has the size at 6'10" to play mostly power forward in the league. Lyles could also be a good fit in the triangle, as he can play with his back to the basket or in the high post area and he's also a solid outside shooter.
The numbers for Lyles at Kentucky were not eye-popping (8.7 PPG and 5.2 RPG), but that was partially a product of the wealth of talent. In conversations I've had with scouts who watched Kentucky practice, Lyles was one of the names that came up regularly as one of the more impressive Wildcats.
What Will the Knicks Do?
This is one of the most difficult questions related to the lottery to answer. If one of the top three were to drop, it would be an easy selection for the Knicks, but that's not likely.
We have a lot to draw on in terms of Jackson "the coach," but it's too soon to draw any conclusions from his short time as a personnel man.
The names mentioned the most are Mudiay, Cauley-Stein and Winslow, so the safest bet is to believe one of those three will be the pick.
It could come down to whether the Knicks believe Mudiay is just too talented to pass up. New York might not be the ideal fit for Mudiay's game, but it's not like his abilities would go unused.
If not Mudiay, Cauley-Stein or Winslow could help plug a need, and it will be left up to Jackson to try to fill the rest of the holes in free agency.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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