Have the Chiefs Become the NFL's Most Overlooked Team?

The offensive line is bad. Alex Smith isn’t an elite quarterback. No wide receivers caught a touchdown pass last season. Outside linebacker Justin Houston is going to hold out. Linebacker Derrick Johnson and defensive lineman Mike DeVito are coming off torn Achilles tendons—a nasty injury.

There are many different reasons given as to why the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t one of the best teams in the AFC, but what team doesn’t have a few question marks at this time of year?

On paper, even the best teams in the league have issues.

In one offseason, the Chiefs have become the NFL’s most overlooked team. In two years since Andy Reid became their head coach, the Chiefs have won 20 games while general manager John Dorsey has been rebuilding.

The rebuild is entering its third year, which means the Chiefs should start reaping some of the rewards of the Reid-Dorsey partnership. Draft picks should start to contribute more than they have and make bigger impacts.

All the focus is on the struggles of No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher and not on the other young players who will make an impact in 2015.

Cornerback Phillip Gaines, offensive weapon De’Anthony Thomas and, most notably, tight end Travis Kelce will all have expanded roles in 2015. As young players develop, weaknesses will start to become strengths. If the Chiefs are great in one area, it will cover for weaknesses in another.

The Chiefs also focused on rookies who could contribute in 2015.

The team’s first three picks, which include cornerback Marcus Peters, offensive guard Mitch Morse and wide receiver Chris Conley, should play right away.

Even fourth-round pick Ramik Wilson could play alongside Derrick Johnson, and other rookies could also be situational players in 2015.

Even with the improvements, the offensive line is a question, but it wasn’t good last year and the Chiefs won nine games. The passing game hasn’t been great in either year with Reid, but the Chiefs finished sixth in points in 2013 and 16th in 2014. In both seasons, the Chiefs finished in the top nine in point differential.

What top-10 team over the last two years brought in a wide receiver like Jeremy Maclin to upgrade at wide receiver and has an All-Pro inside linebacker returning to a top-five defense? DeVito was the team’s best run defender two years ago and also returns to a defense that was 30th in run defense last year.

Reid and Dorsey have brought in solutions to the problems that have ailed the team or they have returning players who will ease them.

The rest of the problems are things Reid can easily scheme around in various ways.

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Outside of Smith, who is not so much a problem as he is not a solution, the Chiefs have very few holes compared to most teams. Peter King of The MMQB ranked the Chiefs fourth in his offseason power rankings, which—although meaningless—highlighted the relative scarcity of issues facing Reid’s team.

“Two things must happen: Making Justin Houston contractually happy and finding some answers in the passing game,” King wrote. “I like most everything else about the Chiefs’ ability to play in January.”

Making Houston happy contractually is actually not that important in 2015.

Eventually, the Chiefs will work something out with Houston because he’s one of the best young players in the game, coming off a monster year and they need him. Until they do, there’s not much risk that he won’t play even though he’s threatened to hold out until Week 10, per Mike Florio Pro Football Talk.

The worst-case scenario is that Houston plays under the franchise tag in 2015. In all likelihood, he’ll still be there in Week 1.

A holdout until then isn’t a huge issue because he’ll play in the same defensive scheme alongside many of the same players. If anything, Houston not being around gives Dee Ford more reps, which could be a good thing in the long term.

Houston did the same thing last season but ultimately showed up to collect his $1.4 million in salary and avoid fines. He’ll make roughly $13.2 million in 2015, and holding out doesn’t guarantee he’ll be a free agent in 2016.

The Chiefs can tag him again at a 20 percent increase in 2016 if the two sides don’t work out a long-term contract. That’s about $2.6 million more than the tag in 2015, but the team would save that amount if Houston were to hold out for a month into the season.

Therefore, he’ll show up even if he’s unhappy, determined to cost the team more when the two sides reengage in contract talks.

Year	Franchise Tag	Per Week	Earnings if Max Holdout in 2015	Chiefs Savings
2015	$13.2M	$776K	$4.7M	$8.5M (11 Weeks)
2016	$15.8M	$931K	$15.8M	-$2.6M (Tag Increase)
Total	$29.0M	-	$25.2M	$5.9M

There’s no doubt the passing game is a question, but it’s mostly because of the pass protection. Since it’s against Smith’s nature to hold the ball long enough for pass protection to make a major difference, the offensive line issue is only a big problem is Smith starts fumbling at an alarming rate.

Smith either takes sacks or throws short passes with very little in between, so the key isn’t the blocking—it’s the offensive skill players.

The offensive line merely must be able to run-block and block in space. Running back Jamaal Charles doesn’t need much space to be effective on the ground and on screens, and the entire offense runs through him.

There are questions about the Chiefs, but there isn’t enough talk about them being the team to knock the Denver Broncos out of first place in the AFC West in light of quarterback Peyton Manning’s age and left tackle Ryan Clady tearing his ACL.

While the Chiefs may not be the No. 4 team in the league—as King has them ranked—they are probably closer to fourth than 14th.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com and all contract information via Over the Cap.