6 Teams That Can Afford to Gamble in the 2015 NBA Draft
The NBA draft is an inexact science for every team, and each pick carries a certain level of risk. But some clubs can afford to take greater risks than others.
There are a few playoff franchises with strong cores and well-established rotations that can absorb the impact of a risky pick or project. They have the time and leadership structure to deal with the potential negatives, and the pick won't greatly affect their place in the standings.
But there are some lottery teams that could gamble as well, provided they have a strong identity and at least a couple of key pieces in place. Front offices that are loaded with three or more picks in the same draft can also make audacious moves.
Who can afford to reach for a dicey prospect or make a splash with a boom-or-bust selection in 2015?
Oklahoma City Thunder
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2015 Draft Picks: No. 14, No. 48
Sam Presti's Oklahoma City Thunder are armed with a well-established pair of superstars, a nice mix of veterans and some promising young role players.
Given their personnel and overall talent, they're a championship contender moving forward, even with rookie head coach Billy Donovan at the helm. A healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook make OKC as dangerous as anyone, and key cogs like Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams and free agent Enes Kanter know their roles. As such, the Thunder are the type of team that can roll the dice on draft night.
With the starting lineup and most of the bench in place, Presti and Co. can afford to acquire a risky pick or someone who needs time to develop.
OKC may very well draft a backup point guard like Cameron Payne or a do-it-all small forward like Sam Dekker. But they also have the luxury of pursuing a more precarious commodity who has a higher upside.
One risky commodity they could pursue is Kansas freshman Kelly Oubre. His shot-creating skills are raw and didn't put up standout numbers last year, but ESPN.com's Chad Ford explained why he would be a great fit for Oklahoma City:
"Oubre has all the tools to be a star on both ends of the court. Patience and putting Oubre in the right culture will be the key. OKC could be great for his development in the long run."
Depending on who's still on the board at No. 14, the Thunder could live dangerously on draft night.
Atlanta Hawks
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2015 Draft Picks: No. 15, No. 50, No. 59
The Atlanta Hawks are built to make deep runs in the Eastern Conference for the next couple of years.
They've got a playmaker in Jeff Teague, a low-post anchor in Al Horford and several wing weapons like Kyle Korver, Mike Scott and Kent Bazemore. With one of the most innovative coaches in Mike Budenholzer running the show, the Hawks have their blueprint in place.
They've taken risks in the past, and they can do it again. Some of their reaches, like Lucas Nogueira, didn't work out so well, but others, such as dynamic point guard Dennis Schroder, have blossomed brilliantly.
With a prolific floor general like Teague running the offense and plenty of other veterans in the fold, Atlanta should be able to make some gutsy calls.
Barring injury, the Hawks will likely be in the East's top tier for the next couple of seasons if they make the right tweaks in free agency. It could be worthwhile to swing for the fences in the draft, especially if it's a move that helps them outduel the likes of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls down the road.
Two risk-reward prizes who may be available at No. 15 are Kelly Oubre and UCLA power forward Kevon Looney. Looney's body and low-post repertoire aren't close to being ready for substantial minutes, but he could eventually give the squad shooting, rebounding and versatility at the 4 spot.
Boston Celtics
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2015 Draft Picks: No. 16, No. 28, No. 33, No. 45
The Boston Celtics are in the middle tier of the NBA and the lower tier of the Eastern Conference playoff teams. They absolutely need a successful draft this year.
However, they have four picks to work with, so there's some wiggle room for gambling. President Danny Ainge can take some chances with one or two of those selections.
Toward the back end of the first round, there are several intriguing prospects for the Shamrocks to consider at No. 28.
For example, they could take a chance on former Washington center Robert Upshaw, an elite shot-blocker who would finally give them a much-needed rim protector. There's risk attached to his candidacy because he was kicked out of both Fresno State and Washington, per ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman. Doctors also identified some potential issues with Upshaw's heart at the NBA combine in Chicago, according to Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com.
Ainge and Co. are also considering potential draft-and-stash scenarios for overseas talent, according to ESPN.com's Chris Forsberg.
We recently dissected some of the top international prospects Boston could tab. They include centers such as France's Mouhammadou Jaiteh and Alpha Kaba, along with Indian tower Satnam Singh Bhamara. A couple of versatile backcourt players to keep an eye on are Brazil's George de Paula and Macedonia's Cedi Osman.
Golden State Warriors
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2015 Draft Picks: No. 30
Steve Kerr's Golden State Warriors are the class of the Western Conference, and it will probably stay that way for a couple of years given their salary cap and roster situation. The Splash Brothers, Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut and Co. will be contending for championships well beyond this 2015 run if they remain healthy.
Given the Warriors' stability throughout the starting lineup and bench, general manager Bob Myers will be able to target a project if he wants to.
The franchise has landed some terrific prizes in the 30-40 range in the past, such as Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green. Who should they zero in on this year?
Ed Isaacson of Yahoo Sports suggested the Dubs could pick up a long-term asset like Syracuse forward Chris McCullough. He's not a massive reach at No. 30, but he's exceedingly raw, and his future is uncertain:
"McCullough’s freshman season at Syracuse was cut short due [to] an ACL injury, and he is still very raw as a player, but he has length and athletic ability. Golden State has done a great job using their Santa Cruz D-League affiliate to develop players, and McCullough would be perfect for them to work with over the next year or two.
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It seems like the Warriors have pushed all the right buttons over the past few offseasons. Will they hit another home run with a successful risk-reward draftee in 2015?
Philadelphia 76ers
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2015 Draft Picks: No. 3, No. 35, No. 37, No. 47, No. 58, No. 60
No second-round pick is an earth-shattering reach, but the Philadelphia 76ers have five in hand this year.
It won't be surprising if they use a couple of them to earn a second first-round pick (in addition to the No. 3 slot they already have). But with the remaining picks, they can afford to really swing for the fences on some dark-horse prospects.
They could use their selections in the 30s to call dibs on an unheralded dark horse before anyone expects it. This bold move could come in the form of an unproven or obscure mid-major candidate like Bowling Green's Richaun Holmes or an international acquisition.
For example, little-known Spanish guard Marc Garcia is projected to land late in the second round on most mock drafts, but Philly could grab him at 35 if it really likes him. DraftExpress.com's Jonathan Givony explained that the 19-year-old has "amazing instincts for putting the ball in the basket" and that Garcia is a "fluid and crafty guard with tremendous creativity."
The Sixers are still deep in the rebuilding phase, and while every move is important, they have some margin for error to be adventurous.
General manager Sam Hinkie has a penchant for thinking outside the box, so don't be shocked if he makes a wildly unpredictable pick.
San Antonio Spurs
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2015 Draft Picks: No. 26, No. 55
The San Antonio Spurs can get away with rolling the dice because, well, they're the Spurs.
Even though Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili's contracts are up and the long-term future isn't crystal-clear, R.C. Buford has the green light to make bold moves. The franchise has the foundation and leadership necessary to take risks on young, up-and-coming assets.
With Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker representing the club for the future, San Antonio will look to make some free-agent moves this summer and next. If it's not looking to add young, unproven pieces to the roster immediately, then it can afford to take a flier on a draft-and-stash international stud.
Sam Vecenie of CBSSports.com explained why Spanish big man Guillermo Hernangomez would be a great choice for the Spurs:
"He's physical and rebounds well, plus has really good touch from near the hoop and a developing face-up game. The key here for the Spurs though is that they might be able to convince him to stay overseas for a year if they need to, as they will be looking to keep as many options open as possible this summer in free agency.
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No team has a better track record of maximizing risky overseas players than San Antonio. They've earned the right to make picks that would otherwise be eyebrow-raising.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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