Top 10 Spoiler Games for 2015-16 College Football Playoff Contenders
The countdown to the start of the 2015 college football season is less than 100 days—finally—and with spring ball well behind us, it's time to start looking ahead to next year.
Obviously the spotlight will shine brightly on teams like TCU, Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama, all among the top contenders to make the second ever College Football Playoff.
But which under-the-radar games on their schedules could spoil their chances?
A trip to Minnesota for TCU may give the Horned Frogs some early trouble against a formidable Big Ten school, while Auburn's trip to the Bluegrass State may give the Kentucky Wildcats a huge upset.
Find out about those and other prime spoiler games for college football's top playoff contenders this season.
TCU @ Minnesota
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After being snubbed from last year's College Football Playoff—although it's hard to argue Ohio State didn't belong—the TCU Horned Frogs are anxious to make another run at the postseason.
However, despite a brutal round-robin Big 12 schedule for the league's defending champs, a trip to a tough albeit under-the-radar Big Ten school may spoil TCU's season early.
Week 1 sees TCU travel to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers on a Thursday night national broadcast.
The Gophers were no joke in the Big Ten last year, going 5-3 in conference and 8-4 overall—the lone loss in non-conference action coming at the hands of the Horned Frogs on the road.
Two of the Gophers' three losses in the league came to Ohio State and Wisconsin by a combined 17 points (seven to Ohio State, 10 to Wisconsin).
Gophers QB Mitch Leidner had the worst game of his sophomore year against TCU, throwing three picks on 12-of-26 passing.
But with a year under his belt and vengeance on his mind, he might be poised to prove something to his hometown crowd at the start of the season. Maybe knocking off the Big 12 champs is what Leidner is thinking.
Ohio State @ Virginia Tech
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Last year, any and every Ohio State detractor leading up to the College Football Playoff was saying, "What about that loss to Virginia Tech?"
Wouldn't it be neat if it happened again in 2015?
The biggest difference in the 2015 edition of this series is a big one. The game is at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia.
Regardless of how good or bad the Virginia Tech Hokies have been in recent years, Lane Stadium loves to get rocking and is always a tough place to play for any team, particularly early in the year when teams are still finding their groove.
The Hokies have a senior gunslinger this season in Michael Brewer, and teams will need all the experience they can get to beat the Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes will be playing a team that believes it can beat Ohio State, because it already has. That has all the makings of a potential spoiler.
Oregon @ Arizona State
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The Oregon Ducks haven't even faced Arizona State since 2012. So there's no litmus test to see how these teams compare from just a season ago.
But Arizona State has become a mainstay of the Pac-12, and it's projected to only improve in 2015.
Losing wideout Jaelen Strong hurts, as does losing quarterback Taylor Kelly.
But the Sun Devils have a very capable replacement for Kelly in the form of Mike Bercovici. Heck, Bercovici was the man who found Strong on the last play of the game against USC to win on a now-famous Hail Mary.
Running back D.J. Foster, who tore off 1,081 yards on the ground last season, is also back.
The Sun Devils scored 36.9 points a game last year and were sixth in the nation in turnover margin (plus-16). So in shootouts that beg for teams to capitalize on mistakes, they thrive.
That's exactly the type of game their Thursday, October 29 home matchup against the Ducks could turn into.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Wisconsin vs. Alabama
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This game is probably the most obvious on the list. Wisconsin is a quality Big Ten school and Alabama plays them Week 1.
But without Melvin Gordon, the Badgers seem far less threatening to many Crimson Tide fans.
Au contraire.
The Badgers have another great running back to fill Gordon's shoes in Corey Clement, who played a very loud second fiddle to Gordon in 2014.
Despite sitting behind the best running back in the country, Clement still racked up 949 yards and averaged 6.5 yards per carry.
Just like Virginia Tech's Michael Brewer, the Badgers have senior leadership at quarterback in Joel Stave.
Wisconsin was also fourth in the nation last year in total defense at just 294.1 yards allowed per game, and now they get to defend an Amari Cooper-less team.
The new fad in college football is the Big Ten, especially with how it did last bowl season. Wisconsin has a great chance to turn it into a full-fledged trend.
Baylor @ Kansas State
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The Baylor Bears have beaten the Kansas State Wildcats each of the last three seasons.
They're the only team in the Big 12 to do just that. So based on odds alone, making it a fourth straight time in Manhattan, Kansas is a tough ask.
The Wildcats are coached by the wizard that is Bill Snyder. While he loses quarterback Jake Waters and receiver Tyler Lockett from his team, his ability to fill roster holes year in and year out is why he's one of the best coaches in the sport's history.
Baylor probably has the best on-paper edge of any game on this list, but analytics go out the window against the Wildcats. Art Briles has to out-coach Snyder, and that's tough to do four times in a row.
Michigan State @ Michigan
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Sure, Michigan State is a popular Big Ten title candidate. And sure, Michigan has tapered off the past few seasons.
But this is a rivalry, so anything can happen. Michigan's biggest advantage? This game is in The Big House on October 17.
Michigan isn't loaded with star players, but Jim Harbaugh knows how to turn things around quickly at his programs. Anybody can come out of the woodwork early in the year, and Michigan State won't have much to do in terms of scouting.
This game could be decided early. If Michigan starts off strong, the Big House could become a brick wall to those who enter. If Michigan sputters at the beginning, that brick wall could turn into a red carpet. The Spartans just have to hope for the latter.
Auburn @ Kentucky
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Bank on this.
Kentucky will spoil at least one SEC team's playoff dreams, if not more.
According to 247sports, the Wildcats' recruiting class of 2014 was ranked 23rd in the nation. That class now has a year under its belt, so they're sure to make leaps and bounds of improvement.
The October 15 matchup also comes at a good time in the schedule for Kentucky.
Three of Auburn's first five games—Kentucky is the sixth—are against Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State.
Then in the Tigers' fifth game, should they survive that wood chipper, is against San Jose State.
So they'll be worn out from a tough schedule early, then lulled into complacency against a lowly San Jose State squad.
Sounds like the perfect opportunity for the Wildcats, who pushed Mississippi State and Louisville to the limit last year, to pounce.
Florida State @ Boston College
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The path from 10-0 to 11-0 for Florida State ran through the Boston College Eagles last year, and it ended up being a difficult one that the Seminoles survived with a 20-17 victory.
That was with Jameis Winston at the helm. FSU doesn't have the luxury of one of college football's greatest-ever closers to fall back on anymore, and Boston College is hungry for relevancy.
With no Tyler Murphy at the reins, Boston College is bound to be a much different squad in 2015.
But it's only in Week 3 that these two teams meet up, so both teams will be looking to find footing in their ACC opener. Many in Boston know how close they came to upsetting the Seminoles a year ago, and perhaps an offseason that saw Winston selected No. 1 overall in the NFL draft has done enough to close the gap altogether.
TCU @ Iowa State
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TCU throttled Iowa State last year, and the Cyclones finished dead last in the Big 12 at 0-9 in league play.
But ask any coach in the Big 12, and they'll tell you a trip to Jack Trice Stadium is as frightening as anywhere else in the conference.
A few years ago, Oklahoma State's undefeated season and national title dreams died there.
Last year, Kansas State and West Virginia both escaped Ames, Iowa with victories, but by the skins of their teeth.
Iowa State has a favorable schedule to start, with games against Northern Iowa, Toledo and Kansas among their first four games.
The Cyclones could very well be 3-1 heading into a matchup with TCU and be feeling much better about themselves than they did a year ago.
Oklahoma @ Kansas
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Before you say to yourself, "No way on God's green earth does Kansas upset Oklahoma, even under the wackiest of circumstances," hear me out.
First off, I probably agree with you.
But consider this. New head coach David Beaty has Kansas headed in a new direction. He's establishing Texas recruiting ties and seems to be slowly turning what is perhaps the worst FBS team of the past decade around.
Now, the process will take years. But it always starts with a huge upset of a marquee team in the first or second season.
Oklahoma's schedule works out to where the Sooners will be coming off a home game against Texas Tech, a game they'll likely handle easily.
So perhaps they'll be a little complacent when they make the October 31st trip to Lawrence, the same trip that TCU nearly lost a year ago.
It's a long shot, but Beaty and Co. have to start somewhere. Knocking off one of the longstanding kings of the Big 12 might just be that start.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
