Drew Stubbs: Real or Regression Risk?

Drew Stubbs has burst onto the scene for the Cincinnati Reds, showing the type of speed and power combination that teams thirst for. The question everyone has to be asking, however, is if the skills he’s been showing are for real or if he is nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

Over his last eight games he’s managed to post six multi-hit games and three home runs, helping him to his current line of:

70 At Bats
.271 Batting Average (19 Hits)
4 Home Runs
7 RBI
11 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.301 On Base Percentage
.471 Slugging Percentage
.326 Batting Average on Balls in Play

First of all, let’s address the power, which has seemingly come out of nowhere. In 411 AB at Triple-A this season he had hit just three home runs. Over 1,588 career minor league at bats he had managed 28 home runs with just five coming above Single-A.

It would appear like his power is just a mirage. It would appear that there is little chance that he could even come close to the pace he’s set thus far.

While he isn’t likely to come close to this rate of power moving forward, the idea of him hitting home runs should not come as an outrageous one. Prior to the season, Baseball America, who ranked him as the Reds third best prospect, said:

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“He made significant strides at the plate by widening his stance, cutting down his swing a little bit, and improving his already solid selectivity. His home run production diminished as a result, but scouts believe it was a wise tradeoff, as his power will re-emerge as he continues to make solid contact.”

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The only problem I see with that statement has to do with the “already solid selectivity” part. For a player who is supposed to have a good eye at the plate, he has not come close to demonstrating it in the major leagues. He’s already struck out 20 times, good for a K percentage of 28.57 percent.

He has a good eye though, at least that’s what they say. He has to be drawing a lot of walks and at least finding his way on base, right? That would be no. He has walked just three times, good for a 4.11 percent walk rate.

He was better at Triple-A this season, but not much:

• K% = 25.3%
• BB% = 11.0%

In fact, for his minor league career he’s carrying a 27.27 percent strikeout rate.  That’s the type of number that you could tolerate from a power hitter, someone who has the potential to hit 30 HR in a season.

Despite his power being better then you might think, he’s still not that type of player.  He’s built on speed and he needs to be making contact in order to utilize it.

He had 46 stolen bases at Triple-A this season, showing that he has learned how to make the most of the talent he has, but a .301 OBP isn’t going to let him display it to the masses. Even at Triple-A, he hadn’t shown the ability to get consistently on base.

In the major leagues, there are currently 73 players who have an OBP of .355 or better.  Stubbs’ number at Triple-A was just .353.

That’s the biggest concern for him and what will limit his potential value for fantasy owners both for September 2009 and well into 2010.  While the power may develop in time, it’s not going to be at the pace he’s shown recently. Not yet. Maybe not ever.

He needs to be able to consistently get on base and utilize his speed if he is going to help produce for fantasy owners. That’s what we need to watch over the final month of games when determining if he is going to be worth using next season.

For now, especially in five-outfielder formats, I would take advantage of his hot start, but be prepared to move on quickly. With the strikeout numbers and his inability to consistently get on base, his value could plummet in a heartbeat.

What are your thoughts on Stubbs? Is he someone you would consider using for the rest of 2009? Do you see him being valuable in 2010?

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