Playing Keep or Trade with Every 2015 NBA Draft Lottery Pick
NBA executives have some difficult, potentially franchise-defining decisions to make leading up to the draft.
Those determinations involve a lot more than just the 60 names that will be announced on June 25.
With every selection, teams have to make one critical call. Should they keep the pick and develop the player it produces, or would they be better off swapping the selection for something else? And that something else could be any number of things: a different pick in this draft, selections in future ones, players who have already proved themselves at the big-league level or even cash considerations.
Where each team stands on the pecking order often helps decide the best course of action. Those with legitimate championship aspirations (or at the least playoff hopes) might covet the stability of an NBA veteran. Clubs who know their rebuilding plans will take a little longer are often more willing to wait on a prospect.
The 2015 draft lottery teams from all walks of NBA life. As such, some are more open to the trade route than others.
We're not here to tell you which lottery teams will make a move on draft night. Only time knows that answer. Rather, we're weighing situations, rosters and ambitions to identify which ones should be open to dealing their pick and who needs to keep what they have.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Trade
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have one more season to convince Kevin Durant not to seek greener pastures in 2016 free agency. Every move the franchise makes over the coming year needs to be done with that in mind.
It's hard to see how adding an mid-level prospect to the fold would help convince the former MVP to stick around. OKC needs more depth on the perimeter, and there's no guarantee it will find some at its current draft position.
With enough young talent to sweeten a trade package built around their pick (Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones and Mitch McGary), the Thunder could have enough ammunition to move up the draft board. General manager Sam Presti has already opened the door to the possibility of a trade.
"In terms of how seriously we'd consider it, the best way for me to answer that is, we have to consider everything," Presti said, via Daily Thunder's Royce Young. "And until we get closer to draft night it’ll be tough for us to determine what those options really are."
If those options involve either climbing the ladder to get a more intriguing prospect or adding a proven player from outside the organization, that should be an easy call for the Thunder to make.
13. Phoenix Suns: Trade
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The treadmill is turning on the Phoenix Suns' path to mediocrity. In four of the last five seasons, they have won between 47.6 and 58.5 percent of their games—and missed the playoff party every time.
They need something to pull them out of the middle. More youth on a team that already starts four players age 25 and under—Markieff Morris, Eric Bledsoe, Alex Len and (assuming he returns in restricted free agency) Brandon Knight—isn't it.
"There is a saturation point for young players as you try to put together a team that is capable of competing and making the playoffs in the Western Conference," Suns GM Ryan McDonough said, via Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic. "I think it (trading the pick) is something we're more open to than in the past."
The Suns need to make their move sooner rather than later. With players such as Bledsoe, Knight and the Morris twins presumably entering the primes of their careers, opportunity is knocking.
Phoenix needs a few trusty veterans to help this young core take the next step. With cap space to spare and several intriguing trade assets at their disposal, the Suns must find a way to accelerate their playoff plans.
12. Utah Jazz: Keep
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The Utah Jazz seem like a prime trade candidate.
Once Rudy Gobert stepped into the starting lineup after the trade deadline, the Jazz started pummeling opponents. No team had a stingier defense after the All-Star break, and only six clubs had more victories during that stretch than Utah's 19.
If Utah is really ready for the bright lights, then supporting this young nucleus with a battle-tested vet might feel like the right move.
But unless a no-brainer offer comes across the table, the Jazz should continue building their foundation of young talent. Time is on their side. Gordon Hayward is the oldest building block they have, and he just turned 25 in March.
Utah needs to see how this group performs during an entire season before making any dramatic moves. The Jazz are set to collect a slew of draft picks over the coming years, so if they need execute a trade down the line they can. But for now, rolling the dice on a cost-controlled rookie is the risk most worth taking.
11. Indiana Pacers: Keep
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If the Indiana Pacers are anxious to shake things up, who could blame them?
They were an Eastern Conference Finalist in 2013 and 2014, and they're a lottery team in 2015. They waited almost an entire year for Paul George's broken leg to heel, and they might want to make up for lost time with the rising star.
They're also ready to ditch their plodding play style of the past.
"I was talking to coach earlier; we'd like to play a little faster tempo," Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird said, via Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star. "And that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller."
The draft is the perfect place to help engineer an identity change. Whether Indiana wants a mobile forward (Arkansas' Bobby Portis), a floor-stretching big (Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky), an athletic wing (Kansas' Kelly Oubre) or a sharpshooter (Kentucky's Devin Booker), the Pacers should find something they like at the No. 11 spot.
10. Miami Heat: Trade
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If the dominoes fall in the right places this summer, the Miami Heat could have a scary-good starting five next season.
If they can bring back Goran Dragic and Luol Deng, they'll pair those two with All-Stars Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and up-and-comer Hassan Whiteside. That checks off basically every box you'd have for a five-man lineup.
But the Heat are uncomfortably thin after that. Only one player outside of that group posted a player efficiency rating above 12.0 (Chris Andersen, 16.1). A league average PER is 15.0.
This reserve group needs help, particularly on the perimeter. Unless Arizona's Stanley Johnson or Croatia's Mario Hezonja slips, Miami could have a hard time scratching that itch with the 10th selection.
If the Heat keep their fantastic five in place, they'll want to significantly climb the conference standings next season. Trading this pick—a trigger that Heat president of basketball operations Pat Riley has never hesitated to pull—for a win-now contributor could help ease Miami's ascent.
9. Charlotte Hornets: Keep
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With uber-competitive owner Michael Jordan at the helm, the Charlotte Hornets can't be crazy about the idea of staying patient. Especially after a season that began with so much optimism—surrounding both the Hornets' playoff run in 2014 and last summer's signing of Lance Stephenson—eventually crashed and burned in a 49-win dumpster fire.
It's no surprise, then, that ESPN Insider Chad Ford listed the Hornets as one of four lottery teams who could trade away their pick. If Charlotte is basing its decisions around 30-year-old center Al Jefferson, there could be major motivation to swap out a future asset for more immediate help.
But the Hornets can't take that approach. Not when the best-case scenario for next season still seems to be a first-round exit.
Charlotte has to focus on supporting its young core: Kemba Walker (25 years old), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (21), Cody Zeller (22) and Noah Vonleh (19). You might even add Stephenson (24) and restricted free agent Bismack Biyombo (22) to that list. Those are the players the Hornets should be worried about building around.
The Hornets need a do-it-all swingman who's capable of providing some badly needed spacing to this offense. Johnson makes a ton of sense in Charlotte, and if he's off the board, Oubre could be worth the gamble.
8. Detroit Pistons: Keep
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The Detroit Pistons are another trade candidate in Ford's eyes. And it makes a ton of sense to see them as such.
Not only are the Pistons six seasons removed from their last playoff berth, they haven't even managed a .400 winning percentage during that stretch. On top of that, their president of basketball operations-coach Stan Van Gundy just oversaw the first losing season of his coaching career.
The stench of defeat is surely overwhelming inside the organization. But the promise of adding another young piece to this puzzle could make the eventual reward worth this agonizing wait.
Remember, the failures of this franchise aren't really tied to this core. And if the Pistons bring back 25-year-old restricted free agent Reggie Jackson to pair with Andre Drummond (21) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (21), they might soon form a stable foundation if they draft the right player.
If Latvian stretch forward Kristaps Porzingis falls in their lap, that could be an incredible coup. If not, they have enough holes where it makes sense to go the best-player-available route—provided that player can shoot.
7. Denver Nuggets: Trade
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The Denver Nuggets are really hurting for young talent.
How bad is it? Their two centerpieces, according to Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post, are Danilo Gallinari and Jusuf Nurkic. The former is a 26-year-old, who missed all of the 2013-14 season with a torn ACL and owns a career 15.9 PER. The latter is a 6'11" center who shot 44.6 percent from the field as a rookie.
In other words, the Nuggets don't have a legitimate centerpiece right now. But this draft pick, coupled with one or more of Denver's intriguing trade chips, could help them find one.
Both Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried could "be part of trade discussions prior to the June 25 draft," according to Kiszla. Lawson is one of only three players to average at least 15 points and eight assists in each of the last two seasons. Faried has nearly averaged a double-double for his career (12.2 points, 8.7 rebounds) despite playing only 26.9 minutes per game.
If there's a blockbuster deal to be made, the Nuggets have the assets to pull it off. Whether they moved to a higher pick or traded for an established star, they'd at least have a shot at getting the leader they so desperately need.
6. Sacramento Kings: Trade
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The Sacramento Kings have to get DeMarcus Cousins some help.
The 24-year-old All-Star center is giving everything he has and then some to lift this team to relevance. He had six games with at least 20 points, 15 rebounds and five assists this season. Blake Griffin was the only other player to hit those marks more than once, and he did it...twice.
Remarkable, right? Here's what's even more jarring: the Kings went 1-5 in those contests. Even with Cousins stuffing the stat sheet unlike anyone else, Sacramento still struggled to climb out of the NBA's cellar. The Kings have one of the most talented players in the business, and that needs to start meaning something.
It could if they manage to flip this selection into something more substantial.
"I think we should be very open," Kings vice president of basketball operations Vlade Divac said about a potential trade, via Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee. "Our goal is we want to improve next year. We want to be much, much better."
If Sacramento can get in the Lawson sweepstakes, that's a move it has to make. If not, the Kings need to find a frontcourt partner for Cousins who provides either rim protection or three-point shooting.
5. Orlando Magic: Keep
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Even though the Orlando Magic didn't move up at the draft lottery, they had to pleased with the outcome.
While some might see this as a four-player draft (Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Ruseel and Emmanuel Mudiay), there's no guarantee the first four teams on the board view it as such. One general manager told NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper that Porzingis "could go two." A shift like that could send any of the four heavy-hitters Orlando's way.
But even if that doesn't happen, the Magic might still land a monster.
They could look to the international ranks for a lights-out shooter like Porzingis or Hezonja. They could snatch up Duke's Justise Winslow, who Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman likened to 2014-15 Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard, or get some needed rim protection from Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein.
The upside is enormous for all of those players, and a youthful Orlando squad should have no problem waiting for another prospect to add to its bright future.
4. New York Knicks: Keep
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There seems to be a very real possibility that the New York Knicks will at least consider trading the No. 4 pick. As soon as they picked up the selection at the draft lottery, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski said to "expect that the Knicks draft pick will be very available in trade talks."
We're here to try to stop them from making a woefully shortsighted mistake. Yes, there's a sense of urgency to right the ship before Carmelo Anthony leaves his prime. But the Knicks don't have the assets to land someone capable of turning around this franchise, as Bleacher Report's Dan Favale explained:
"Pot sweeteners would need to be included in any deal for a legitimate superstar—buffers the Knicks don't own. Their next best trade assets after Carmelo Anthony are Tim Hardaway Jr., Cleanthony Early and Langston Galloway.
Packaging any one or two, or even all, of them with that No. 4 pick won't get the Knicks much in return—not enough to justify flipping a top-four cornerstone at least.
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The Knicks could potentially find a star at No. 4. Either Russell or Mudiay would be a significant upgrade over anything they have in the backcourt. At worst, New York leaves the draft with something far more promising for its future than Hardaway, Early and Galloway.
If an elite talent like Cousins somehow falls into the Knicks' price range, they obviously have to get him. But the last thing they should do is trade this lottery ticket for a second-tier (or lower) vet.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Keep
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The Philadelphia 76ers understand the importance of superstar talent. And they know most likely place to acquire that is the draft.
For the second straight year, they'll go searching for that star with the No. 3 pick. It's hard to imagine any scenario where they'd consider giving up the selection.
"We are clearly building through the draft," Sixers GM Sam Hinkie said, via CSN Philly's Dei Lynam. "We are trying to find star players that we can move forward with. There may be other teams out there more interested and more committed and interested in that sort of thing, but I doubt it."
Philly's rebuilding strategy is built around patience. The Sixers tore themselves down and have piled up 127 losses over the past two seasons in pursuit of a cornerstone.
This pick is another opportunity to hit the NBA jackpot. They could take Russell or Mudiay to complement their young frontcourt combo of Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel. Should Okafor or Towns somehow slip this far, the Sixers could stop their slide and use one of their bigs as trade bait to fill a different need.
Their roster could use a little of everything, so they'll likely grab whichever player is on top of their board and figure out away to make him fit.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Keep
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The Los Angeles Lakers can hear the ticking biological clock of 36-year-old Kobe Bryant, but they aren't going to overreact to it.
While the Mamba could use some win-now help for what's likely his NBA swan song, the Lakers need to expand their talent base for after he's gone. Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson are the only thing resembling prospects this roster has. That obviously needs to change.
Luckily, it sounds like it will.
Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak said "it would have to be a heck of an opportunity" for them to consider trading the pick, via Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. There isn't going to be a better opportunity than tying their frontcourt future to either Towns or Okafor.
Towns projects as an ideal big in today's game, one who can play above the rim at both ends and comfortably rain down jumpers. Okafor's ground-bound style looks a little dated, but all the 19-year-old does is win (national championship at Duke) and produce (23.0 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes with the Blue Devils).
There isn't a wrong choice—other than passing on those long-term solutions for a short-term Band-Aid.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Keep
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The Minnesota Timberwolves won't be moving this selection.
You don't have to take our word for it; Wolves president of basketball operations-part owner-coach Flip Saunders said it himself.
"We're not going to trade the pick," Saunders said, via Fox Sports' Phil Ervin. "That's not going to happen; I'll tell you that. I shouldn't say not; you can always be swayed on certain things, but I feel that the guys that are on top of this draft are just too good and could be long-term players."
There is zero motivation for Minnesota to vacate this spot. The Timberpups won just 16 games this season, but they started forming a very intriguing team for the future. Between high-flying rookies Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, productive sophomores Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng and fourth-year table-setting maestro Ricky Rubio, Minnesota is gearing up to run, gun and eventually win.
The team's bright future will creep closer toward the present with this pick. Towns' mobility, shooting and two-way talents seem to fit perfectly in Minnesota's plans, but Okafor's steady scoring might keep him in the running.
The best move for the Timberwolves—who already employ each of the last two No. 1 picks (Wiggins and Anthony Bennett)—is no movement at all.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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