The Most Overvalued 2015 NBA Free Agent at Every Position
Every summer, a new crop of NBA players descends upon free agency seeking to strike gold on the open market in the form of long-term contracts that pay out handsome amounts of cash.
And without fail, a handful of teams will wind up overstepping their financial bounds in search of a game-changer who can propel the franchise to the next level.
That's not to say those players don't have value in the right schemes or at an appropriate price, but overpayment generally leads to inflated expectations and, ultimately, disappointment.
Using production during the 2014-15 season and perceived fit in modern pace-and-space systems, we've outlined one player at each position (point guard through center) who is a candidate to be compensated above market value when free agency opens on July 1.
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 PTS, 7.9 AST, 5.5 REB, 1.3 STL, 42.6 FG%, 31.4 3P%, 13.5 PER
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
With prominent names such as Brandon Knight and Reggie Jackson entering restricted free agency, this doesn't figure to be a big summer for point guards on the unrestricted market.
That makes Rajon Rondo the selection by default.
Following a tumultuous stint with the Dallas Mavericks that ended prematurely after Rondo was effectively banished from the squad during the team's first-round series against the Houston Rockets, he'll now be left to convince suitors that he isn't a complete detriment and ball-stopper.
"Plenty of scouts cite Rondo's mushier-than-ever shooting stroke as a backbreaker for offensive game plans," Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding wrote. "Even Rondo's passing skill can be hard to accommodate with how much he needs the ball in his hands, insists on calling plays and—as seen in Dallas—tends to pass outside-in as opposed to inside-out."
Considering Dallas was 4.4 points worse per 100 offensive possessions with Rondo on the floor, there should be legitimate concern regarding his ability to run a system without killing flow and encouraging stagnancy.
However, with a bumpy year behind him, Rondo's value could settle at an equilibrium that's more appealing to teams trying to fill backcourt holes.
"Perhaps Rondo, who made $12.9 million this season, can be had at a significant discount after the Lakers secure a big frontcourt fish such as Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge or DeAndre Jordan in free agency," Ding wrote. "Especially if he accepts something short, such as a one-and-one contract with the second year a team option."
The one-and-one option is incredibly intriguing.
With a chance to rehabilitate his value before a salary-cap boom in 2016, Rondo could play out a campaign with a shot to earn a sizable raise and wipe away some stigmatized labels.
Honorable Mention: Reggie Jackson (restricted)
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.5 PTS, 2.1 AST, 1.9 REB, 1.1 STL, 40.4 FG%, 34.0 3P%, 19.9 PER
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Lou Williams is an excellent volume scorer—so much so that he received 2014-15 Sixth Man of the Year honors over Isaiah Thomas, Jamal Crawford and Andre Iguodala.
However, Williams' ability to create instant offense off the bench comes with a big disclaimer: He tends to stagnate sets, and when he's not hitting, the team's efficiency suffers.
During the regular season, 58.6 percent of Williams' shots came via pull-ups, according to SportVU. Clearly, Williams has no qualms about creating his own shot. That said, a plurality (28.3 percent) of his shots required a three-to-six dribble setup, and he hit on 39.3 percent of those looks.
So as teams start stressing the importance of pace and space, it's hard to back Williams' getting a lucrative deal on the heels of capturing hardware.
Unless that team is the Toronto Raptors.
"As long as the Raps can re-sign Williams at a palatable number of his own, it's believed they want him back, as well, no matter how badly they need frontcourt upgrades," ESPN.com's Marc Stein wrote. "Which speaks to the sort of splash Williams made in his first season in Canada, arriving via trade with Atlanta on the day before free agency commenced last summer and going on to win the league's highest honor for reserves."
The problem with Williams is he's a one-man operation, and his singular skill set doesn't jibe with the kind of versatile playmaking franchises crave.
Toronto's familiar with what he has to offer, so perhaps the Raptors will represent the exception. But if anyone else decides to splurge on Williams, it could be a mistake.
Honorable Mention: Arron Afflalo (player option)
Small Forward: Jeff Green
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.0 PTS, 4.2 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.4 BLK, 43.0 FG%, 33.2 3P%, 14.4 PER
Free-Agent Type: Player option
Jeff Green's status as a free agent is a little more complicated than the other unrestricted and restricted types here. Unlike Rajon Rondo and Lou Williams, Green is capable of opting into a $9.2 million player option for next season, which would delay his unrestricted free agency until 2016.
According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, early signs point to Green opting in.
But the decision's hardly final.
"Don't forget that Green is represented by the uber-aggressive David Falk," Stein wrote. "Rest assured, then, that Falk will have a strong handle on the sort of market that awaits Green come July 1, if he doesn't already."
If Green opts out, it would hardly be the worst thing for the Grizzlies. Although they parted with a protected first-round pick, Tayshaun Prince, a 2015 second-round selection and Quincy Pondexter to get him, Green testing the open market would give Memphis a nice chunk of cap space to work with as it seeks to add floor-spacers and spot-up shooters.
Green was supposed to fill that void to a degree, but his most impactful offensive contributions came as an off-ball cutter and slasher.
With Green on the floor, Memphis scored just 102.1 points per 100 possessions, which would have ranked No. 18 overall on the regular season efficiency charts.
Green also shot 32.6 percent and 31.7 percent on catch-and-shoots and pull-ups, respectively, per SportVU, figures which aren't worth the salary he could earn by simply opting in.
He still packs value as a combo forward capable of accommodating different lineup permutations at 6'9'' and 235 pounds, but relying on Green to act as an everyday perimeter weapon is an exercise in futility at this point.
Honorable Mention: Tobias Harris
Power Forward: Josh Smith
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.4 PTS, 6.4 REB, 3.3 AST, 1.4 BLK, 1.0 STL, 14.9 PER
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
If Josh Smith is interested in maximizing his on-court value, he should be in the business of making monetary sacrifices to stay with the Houston Rockets as long as possible.
Smith's play was a revelation for the Rockets, who desperately needed his playmaking ability to help relieve the MVP runner-up of a heavy burden.
"He brought an array of skills they needed," Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta wrote. "He’s someone other than James Harden who can drive the ball. He’s the second-best passer on the team. He's terrific on either end of the fast break, dishing or finishing."
In the playoffs, Houston's offense was 6.5 points better per 100 possessions with Smith on the floor. During those stretches, Smith averaged 13.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting 38 percent from three.
But that's because Houston put him in proper position to mask his flaws and accentuate his strengths.
If he signs elsewhere, the same may not hold true.
While Smith's undoubtedly coming off the best 72-game stretch of his career (55 regular season, 17 postseason), trying to balance expectations with production becomes an exponentially tougher task when he's compensated like a go-to scorer and creator.
Just ask the Detroit Pistons.
However, since Detroit used the stretch provision to pay Smith $5.4 million annually through 2019, Houston may have some bargaining power as it pertains to Smith taking a pay cut. The Rockets know he can thrive in their system, and the results elsewhere have been damning.
For Houston, his return would be a relatively low-risk proposition. Any other franchise would be playing with fire.
Honorable Mention: Amir Johnson
Center: Omer Asik
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 7.3 PTS, 9.8 REB, 0.7 BLK, 0.4 STL, 51.7 FG%, 15.5 PER
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Let's get this out of the way up front: Omer Asik is a terrific defensive center.
When he was off the floor, the Pelicans allowed 106.2 points per 100 possessions, which would have been worse than every team but the Sacramento Kings, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves.
In that sense, Asik's incredibly valuable. He's a robust paint protector who pulled down 13.6 rebounds per 36 minutes, and he can act as an anchor in the middle capable of fortifying any defense.
But on offense, Asik lags behind.
New Orleans was 3.5 points worse per 100 offensive possessions when Asik was on the floor, which isn't surprising considering he's not capable of moving the needle with refined post moves.
Only 3.6 percent of Asik's total possessions this season ended in a post-up, plays on which he scored in the 14th percentile, per Synergy Sports.
Asik's not a classic dive man, either. While teams today demand athletic bigs who can run free-throw-line pick-and-rolls and barrel toward the rim to finish lobs, Asik isn't an above-the-rim presence. According to Synergy, Asik scored in the 41st percentile as a roll man.
The Turkish center's easiest route to dropping the ball in the bucket generally came via putbacks, which isn't wholly encouraging as clubs seek bigs who can play inside and outside the paint.
Honorable Mention: Enes Kanter (restricted)
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise. All salary information retrieved from BasketballInsiders.com.
