Breakup Watch: NBA Playoff Teams Set for Major Changes over 2015 Offseason
Taking a stick of dynamite to an NBA playoff team over the offseason isn't standard procedure.
It will be this year.
More than a few postseason squads are approaching a summer that's bound to include change—not just negligible fine-tuning or minor recalibrations but significant, core-clattering change.
These shakeups will take place for any number of reasons. Certain teams have a ton of free agents and won't be able to keep them all. Other squads in similar situations don't want to keep them all.
Some franchises, storied though they remain, are looking to remodel their on-court foundation. They need new stars to replace or complement their old ones.
One organization in particular (you know who you are) even needs to mess with the roster following an inevitable coaching change.
Not one of the 16 playoff participants is off limits. Rumors and preceding moves will weigh heavily when forming this list. So, too, will a team's ability to incite change. (My apologies to Los Angeles Clippers fans who are hoping for a directional shift.)
Other than that, there's only one thing to consider as we soldier on: Which postseason outfits will look most different when the 2015-16 crusade rolls around?
Chicago Bulls
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Ahead of the 2014-15 regular season, it looked like everything was finally coming together for the Chicago Bulls. On paper, they were the only team that could challenge the newly minted Cleveland Cavaliers.
That designation held true for most of the season and into the postseason, where Chicago and Cleveland met in the second round. But after jumping out to a 2-1 series lead, the Bulls lost three straight, earning themselves a second-round exit.
Even before they fell, though, it became clear this would be an offseason rife with change.
Despite steering Chicago toward the fourth-best regular-season record since taking over, head coach Tom Thibodeau is as good as gone, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. And not only is he gone, but the Bulls are hell-bent on ensuring he doesn't coach next season.
Although Iowa State's Fred Hoiberg remains the Bulls' top choice to replace Thibodeau, CBS Sports' Ken Berger says they've yet to talk with him about the job. All signs point to them waiting for other vacancies to fill up—New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Denver Nuggets—before cutting their incumbent head honcho loose.
Firing Thibodeau may indeed end up being the Bulls' only stark change. Jimmy Butler, a restricted free agent, isn't going anywhere, and the team is not flush with cap space.
Hiring a pace-and-space sideline stalker such as Hoiberg demands some kind of shift in personnel, though. Thibodeau ran traditional lineups that didn't call for a stretch 4; Hoiberg is just the opposite.
If he's in charge, the space-sapping trio of Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah won't survive the offseason. At least one will need to be traded to make room for the more contemporary Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott.
Which, in turn, makes you wonder why the Bulls are twiddling their thumbs and prolonging the arrival of Hoiberg or, as David Aldridge of NBA.com reports, someone like him. After all, there is much work to be done in Chicago.
Dallas Mavericks
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Ever since winning a title in 2011, the Dallas Mavericks have been stuck in a perpetual reload-and-retool cycle. They entered the 2014-15 campaign and eventually traded for Rajon Rondo hoping that could change.
It hasn't.
Rondo is already out the door. Coach Rick Carlisle made that much clear prior to Dallas' first-round exit, telling reporters "No, I don't" when asked if he saw the point guard in a Mavericks uniform next season, per ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon.
But it's not just Rondo who could be on his way out. Al-Farouq Aminu, J.J. Barea, Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis and Amar'e Stoudemire, among others, are all slated for free agency. That leaves the Mavericks to once again reshuffle the deck around a core that's, um, less than ideal.
Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal will now grab the talking stick:
"Potentially, the Mavericks could go into the 2015 offseason with only four players currently on the active roster:
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- Dirk Nowitzki, who's on the decline.
- Chandler Parsons, who's coming off season-ending surgery and a fairly disappointing campaign.
- Devin Harris, who has started three games since coming to Dallas two offseasons ago.
- Dwight Powell, who played a grand total of 236 minutes during his rookie go-round.
On the bright side, a paper-thin nucleus allows the Mavericks to be major players in free agency. They have cap space to burn and are already being linked to superstars LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan, per MacMahon.
On the not-so-bright side, the Mavericks have been here before, perfectly positioned to land another superstar and reopen Nowitzki's title window. Not once has it paid off.
Deron Williams spurned them in 2012, Dwight Howard chose the Houston Rockets over them in 2013, and they were never really contenders for Carmelo Anthony last summer.
Nevertheless, previous misfortune won't stop the Mavericks from rolling out the red carpets and velvet ropes once more—mostly because, after finishing seventh in the wild Western Conference, they have no choice.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Is this really just about Marc Gasol?
Why yes, yes it is.
Jeff Green can enter free agency as well if he so pleases. But he underachieved as the foreordained final piece to Memphis' championship puzzle and is expected to exercise his player option for 2015-16, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Everything comes down to Gasol. Both he and the Grizzlies must consider if it's worth keeping the band together knowing this foundation has made it past the second round of the playoffs just once over the last five years.
Smart money has Gasol staying in Memphis. He has longstanding ties to the franchise and city and never once conveyed a sense of unhappiness with the team's direction. But it's not that simple.
The Grizzlies need to get more athletic and spacing friendly. The four conference finalists in this year's playoff bracket were a who's who of volume three-point chuckers, and Memphis ranked dead last in postseason deep-ball attempts.
Parting ways with Gasol is a way for the Grizzlies to modernize their prehistoric, space-slaughtering offense. Either they let him walk and funnel that money into a stretch forward, or they pursue a sign-and-trade that lands them perimeter depth.
No, this isn't an easy proposition to stomach. But Zach Randolph performed like a superstar at center this past season, according to 82games.com, and the Grizzlies can re-sign Kosta Koufos for far less than Gasol will cost. They have the means to navigate such a soul-sundering decision.
More than that, they have every reason to finally rattle this core. If that can be done without sacrificing Gasol (unlikely), good for them. If not, the point still stands: The time for substantial change is here.
Portland Trail Blazers
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Keeping the heart of the Portland Trail Blazers together is going to be expensive. Ergo, this team likely won't look the same next season.
Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo are all speeding toward free agency, while Damian Lillard is eligible for an extension—one he won't sign unless it's a five-year max, according to RealGM's Shams Charania.
Tack on Nicolas Batum's free agency in 2016, as well as the extensions Meyers Leonard and C.J. McCollum will inevitably command, and the Blazers will have to invest more than $300 million total in this exact core if they're to keep it intact.
This is the same core that has yet to make it out of the second round and may have already peaked, mind you. Aldridge, Matthews, Batum, Lopez and Afflalo aren't players who will develop moving forward; they're seasoned veterans.
Complicated still, Matthews is working off an Achilles injury, and there's no guarantee he's the same three-point and defensive threat upon return. Aldridge himself will turn 30 in November and is already looking longingly at the free-agent market, per Stein.
Doubling down on this nucleus makes absolutely no sense. If it weren't for injury bugs ripping through the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Blazers would have finished seventh in the Western Conference. That's not good enough.
Before they enter a holding pattern and wait on Aldridge to make his decision, the Blazers must first decide if he, along with the rest of their free agents, are worth the cost of remaining on this first- and second-round treadmill anymore.
San Antonio Spurs
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Having survived without rocking the boat long enough, the San Antonio Spurs are prepping themselves for a major shakeup on the heels of their first-round letdown against the Los Angeles Clippers.
"The team will probably look considerably different than it looks this year, because we have so many free agents, and we want to re-tool a little bit," coach Gregg Popovich said, per the San Antonio Express-News' Jeff McDonald. "We want to try to start—not exactly over again—because these last four seasons have been a grind."
Both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are expected back in "some capacity" next season, according to Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher. The real, landscape-altering change will lie in the Spurs' free-agent ambitions—specifically their interest in Aldridge and Gasol, per Stein.
Opening up max-contract cap space will be difficult with Duncan and Ginobili returning but not impossible. It starts with the Spurs uncharacteristically dumping Tiago Splitter—something Stein says they're willing to do—and ends with Duncan and Ginobili once again accepting pay cuts.
Whatever happens, their roster is going to feel the effects. Kawhi Leonard is a surefire bet to re-sign, but Marco Belinelli, Danny Green and Cory Joseph are all candidates to leave if San Antonio is serious about making a play for another superstar.
By the Spurs' own standards, this aggressive tinkering process can be constituted as an overreaction. They just won 60 percent of their regular-season contests for the 18th consecutive season and were one win away from securing the No. 2 seed in an ultrabrutal Western Conference.
But the Spurs aren't most teams. They didn't disband when it looked like they were finished and most certainly aren't going to stand pat because they're not wearing red flags for capes.
Duncan and Ginobili's returns are a one-, maybe two-year Band-Aid. The Spurs need a complement for Leonard, a younger mix of players—stars or otherwise—to set them up for the sustained excellence everyone has come to expect.
To satisfy those needs, the Spurs will step out of their own skin and tweak their foundation in free agency, even though, had a few more things gone their way in Round 1, they might still be playing now.
Toronto Raptors
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A first-round exit in 2014 wasn't enough for the Toronto Raptors to pick apart the roster. Once a perceived tanker, they had overachieved.
Another first-round exit in 2015—this time a sweep—will be enough cause for general manager Masai Ujiri to make marked changes. He's made that apparent already.
While head coach Dwane Casey is considered safe, his staff is two assistants lighter, according to Berger. Beyond those measures acting as seat-warmers for Casey, they're just the beginning of Toronto's attempts to escape its first-round limbo.
Amir Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, Chuck Hayes, Landry Fields and Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams are all coming off the books, giving the Raptors plenty of wiggle room. And that's good, because as the National Post's Eric Koreen writes, they need able bodies:
"More than anything, the Raptors need to change their roster. They need more two-way talent, regardless of who is coaching. The starting lineup needs to be upgraded in two spots, small forward and power forward. That is on Ujiri, and it will be fascinating to watch him manoeuvre from an intriguing, if complicated, position.
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After finishing in the bottom seven of defensive efficiency for the regular season, the Raptors regressed even further against the Washington Wizards. Their excessive use of isolation sets and individual shot creation finally caught up with their top-three offense as well. They went from pumping in 108.1 points per 100 possessions to just 95.4.
With the exception of DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas (extension eligible), no one is untouchable, per Stein. The Raptors have cap space and are trying to build an on-court brand that doesn't expire in early May.
They're going to be busy.
And, come next season, their roster is going to look much different.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via BasketballInsiders.com.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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