The Most Underrated and Overrated College Football Player in Each P5 Conference
Remember back in 1993, when ESPN’s Beano Cook predicted that Notre Dame quarterback Ron Powlus would win the Heisman twice?
That’s the definition of overrating a player.
Now, think back to 2009, when preseason Heisman short lists included everybody but the eventual winner, Mark Ingram (running back, Alabama), and runner-up Toby Gerhart (quarterback, Stanford).
That’s the definition of underrating players.
It’s not a question of athletes being good or bad; it’s a case of over-hyping some guys while under-hyping others.
ACC, Underrated: DeVon Edwards, S, Duke
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When you search for the top safeties in the ACC, you’re likely to find Virginia’s Quin Blanding, Duke’s Jeremy Cash and Clemson’s Jayron Kearse.
Who you won’t hear much about is Cash’s teammate, redshirt junior DeVon Edwards.
As a sophomore in 2014, Edwards was the team’s No. 2 tackler (133) and the No. 1 guy in solo tackles (77). He also recorded 7.5 tackles for a loss, 4.5 sacks, nine broken-up passes, five forced fumbles and an interception in the win over Kansas.
If that weren’t enough, Edwards was the Blue Devils’ kick returner, gaining 745 yards and one score on 29 attempts.
He finished the season ranked No. 2 in the ACC and No. 12 in the FBS in tackles, as well as No. 4 in the conference and No. 21 in the nation in kickoff returns.
It was enough to earn him honorable mention All-ACC as a safety and Sports Illustrated honorable mention All-American as a kickoff returner.
All this from a guy who started out as a 2-star cornerback prospect from Covington, Georgia, in 2012.
ACC, Overrated: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
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Florida State’s Dalvin Cook is often referred to as one of the top backs in the ACC—that despite his No. 5 finish in the conference (No. 63 in the FBS) in yards per game (77.54).
He also lagged behind in rushing touchdowns (eight), where he ranked No. 11 in the ACC and No. 96 in the FBS.
Remember, it’s not like Cook was short on opportunity. With 170 carries, he was the Seminoles’ top back last season.
According to Bovada, via Odds Shark, at 40-1, Cook has the same odds to win the Heisman as Pitt’s James Conner. Only Connor rushed for 135.7 yards per game last season, earning him the No. 1 rank in the ACC and the No. 6 slot nationally.
Cook was a 5-star prospect from Miami, Florida, in 2014. Rivals.com ranked him No. 2 among all-purpose backs.
Big 12, Underrated: Pete Robertson, LB/DE, Texas Tech
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What’s the perfect way for a defender to get underrated? Play for a unit that ranks No. 126 out of the 128 FBS teams in scoring.
That’s precisely the situation Texas Tech’s Pete Robertson is in. On one hand, he’s the guy who finished tied for a No. 5 ranking in the FBS in sacks (13) last season, while on the other, he plays for a defense that gave up 512 yards per game.
Robertson led the team in tackles (82), tackles for a loss (15.5) and sacks as a junior. He also broke up three passes, scored seven quarterback hurries and forced two fumbles.
It was enough to earn him the most sacks in the Big 12 and a No. 5 rank in tackles for a loss.
For 2015, Robertson will move to defensive end, where he will have the opportunity to make even more impact with a pass rush that ranked No. 80 in the FBS in sacks last season (24).
Robertson was a 3-star defensive back prospect from Longview, Texas, in 2011.
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Big 12, Overrated: Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU
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While there is no doubt that Trevone Boykin is good, is he good enough to be tied for No. 3 in the 2015 Heisman race (according to Bovada via Odds Shark)?
Boykin finished last season ranked No. 9 in passing yards per game (300.1) and No. 7 in touchdowns (33), but what about his No. 24 rank in passer rating (145.84)?
What it means is that 23 FBS quarterbacks finished better than Boykin, including last year’s Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota (181.75), and this year’s fellow front-runners Cody Kessler (167.06) and Dak Prescott (151.72).
What hurt Boykin was his 61.2 percent completion rate. Though not tragic, it was No. 44 in the FBS and No. 4 in the Big 12 (behind West Virginia’s Clint Trickett, K-State’s Jake Waters and Baylor’s Bryce Petty).
It’s a number that slipped when TCU played its stiffest opponents. Boykin completed only 59.2 percent of his passes in Big 12 play, 58.9 percent against ranked teams and 57 percent against winning teams.
It’s no surprise that his lowest points came in the loss at Baylor (44.7) and in the one-point win at West Virginia (40).
Boykin was a 3-star, dual-threat prospect from Mesquite, Texas, in 2011.
Big Ten, Underrated: William Likely, DB, Maryland
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Maryland’s William Likely is much more than just the guy who finished last season, as a sophomore, tied for the fourth-most interceptions in the FBS.
Likely did score six picks, but he was also one of only a handful of players to return two for touchdowns, the most in the nation.
On top of that, he recorded 83 tackles (four for a loss), a sack, nine broken-up passes and a forced fumble.
Likely also found the end zone on two additional occasions last season—on a 69-yard punt return in the loss to West Virginia and on a 100-yard kickoff return in the loss to Stanford in the Foster Farms Bowl.
His 24 points made him Maryland’s No. 6 scorer, just six points shy of wide receiver Stefon Diggs at 30.
Likely was a 4-star cornerback prospect from Belle Glade, Florida, in 2013.
Big Ten, Overrated: Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State
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On the one hand, you’ve got Cardale Jones, the quarterback that led the Buckeyes in their postseason run to the national championship. On the other, you’ve got Cardale Jones, the guy who started only three games last year and is now, at 12-1 (according to Bovada, via Odds Shark), the fourth-most likely quarterback to win the Heisman.
And he hasn’t even been named the starter yet for next season.
Jones was impressive during his three-game run: 46-of-75 (61.3 percent) for 742 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. Overall, he posted a quarterback rating of 160.15.
That said, remember that Ohio State’s last three games were also the stretch where running back Ezekiel Elliott exploded. Elliott averaged 98.5 yards per game through the first 12 games of 2014 and then skyrocketed for an average of 232 in the wins over Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon.
Jones’ best performance came in the win over the Badgers. He completed 70.6 percent of his passes and scored three touchdowns and zero interceptions, but it was the same game when he threw a mere 17 attempts. This for a team that averaged 27 passes per game in 2014.
Throw in Wisconsin’s four turnovers, and you get the picture: The Buckeyes relied on the run, and Jones got lots of help.
It's also important to remember just how good J.T. Barrett was last season. Starting in 12 games, he posted a 64.6 completion percentage and a rating of 169.82. Not only are both numbers better than Jones’ three-game mark, the quarterback rating was No. 2 in the entire nation last season.
Jones was a 3-star, pro-style prospect from Cleveland, Ohio, in 2011.
Pac-12, Underrated: Jared Goff, QB, Cal
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Jared Goff is next in a long line of quarterbacks who, despite posting ridiculous stats, doesn’t get a lot of credit.
He’s been labeled a “system quarterback,” a tag given to guys playing for non-championship-caliber teams in the golden age of the spread offense.
What’s different about Goff is he’s more than just a guy throwing for a zillion yards.
Goff did finish No. 5 in the FBS in yards per game in 2014 (331.1), but he also earned a No. 21 rank in quarterback rating (147.59).
That put him ahead of guys like TCU’s Trevone Boykin (145.84), Florida State’s Jameis Winston (145.53) and Notre Dame’s Everett Golson (143.57).
Even more impressive, Goff threw the ball a whopping 509 times last season, the fifth most of any quarterback in the nation, but he threw only seven interceptions. It amounts to one pick in every 73 attempts.
Compare that to Boykin, who threw one interception in every 49 throws; Winston, who threw one in every 26; and Golson, who threw one in every 31.
Goff was a 4-star, pro-style prospect from Kentfield, California, in 2013.
Pac-12, Overrated: D.J. Foster, RB, Arizona State
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Oddsmakers have Arizona State’s D.J. Foster as the third-most likely running back from the Pac-12 to win the Heisman. According to Bovada, via Odds Shark, Foster comes in at 40-1, behind UCLA’s Paul Perkins at 18-1 and Oregon’s Royce Freeman at 33-1.
All this for an upperclassman, who, despite getting a team-high 194 carries, finished No. 7 in the Pac-12 and No. 51 in the FBS in yards per game (83.15).
Foster only eclipsed the 100-yard mark four times last season: 147 yards in the win against FCS Weber State, 216 in the win at New Mexico, 147 in the win at Colorado and 120 in the win over Notre Dame.
It means that he did his best work against the Sun Devils’ weakest opponents. He averaged 53 yards per game versus FBS-winning teams and a whopping 127.5 versus non-winning foes.
Foremost among the less-hyped backs in the Pac-12 is Utah’s Devontae Booker, who finished second to Perkins in the conference in yards per game with 116.31. That earned him the No. 23 spot in the FBS, 28 slots better than Foster.
Foster was a 4-star athlete prospect from Scottsdale, Arizona, in 2012.
SEC, Underrated: Travin Dural, WR, LSU
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LSU’s Travin Dural suffers a similar fate as Texas Tech’s Robertson, a standout athlete on a unit that didn’t perform well last season.
For Dural, it meant being the leading receiver for a team that finished No. 116 out of the 128 FBS teams in passing yards.
Though Dural finished a dismal No. 98 in the FBS in yards per game (58.3) and No. 55 in touchdowns (seven), he averaged a whopping 20.49 yards per catch. That’s the second most in the SEC and No. 7 in the FBS.
The number was on par with guys like Miami’s Phillip Dorsett (24.19) and Auburn’s Sammie Coates (21.79). Also similar was the number of catches—Dural had 37, Dorsett had 36 and Coates had 34.
What you’ve got is three guys who didn’t get a lot of touches, but each made the most of each opportunity.
Dorsett was the 29th overall pick of the 2015 NFL draft, while Coates was No. 87.
Keep Dural’s name in mind when you hear about more obvious guys, like South Carolina’s Pharoh Cooper and Texas A&M’s Josh Reynolds.
Dural was a 4-star prospect from Beaux Bridge, Louisiana, in 2012.
SEC – Overrated: Jeremy Johnson, QB, Auburn
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Like TCU’s Boykin, it isn’t a question of whether Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson is good, it’s a matter of how good is he?
On the one hand, Johnson’s got tons of talent, a 4-star, pro-style prospect from 2013 who’s got all the right stuff to transform Auburn’s No. 67-ranked passing attack from last season.
On the other, he’s a guy with 78 attempts as a college quarterback. Last year, he participated in six games and completed 75.7 percent of his passes, but only threw 37 times for 436 yards and three scores.
Though lack of experience doesn’t mean he won’t be good, Johnson has 20/1 odds (according to Bovada, via Odds Shark) to win the Heisman in 2015.
That’s the same kind of credit that game-proven players like Michigan State’s Connor Cook and Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine got. And it’s more love than Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett (28/1) and Georgia Tech’s Justin Thomas (33/1) received.
Though Johnson might emerge as the next big star in SEC football, it’s not time to pass out the awards quite yet.
Stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Star-ratings courtesy of Rivals.com. Heisman odds courtesy of Bovada via Odds Sharks.
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