What to Expect from the San Francisco 49ers' Defense in 2015
It’s safe to say the 2015 San Francisco 49ers’ defense will look a little different from what fans are used to. The defense that has finished in the top 10 in points allowed and top five in yards allowed each of the past five seasons will undergo a massive overhaul this season.
On the field, the team will be without Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, Chris Borland, Dan Skuta and Patrick Willis. That’s seven of the 17 players who played at least a quarter of the team’s defensive snaps last season, according to Pro Football Focus, gone. Every single player graded out positively in PFF’s grades, as well—these were all valuable contributors.
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Off the field, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and secondary coach Ed Donatell left for the Chicago Bears. Defensive line coach Jim Tomsula has been promoted to head coach. Linebackers coach Jim Leavitt has become the defensive coordinator at the University of Colorado.
Replacing them will be new defensive coordinator Eric Mangini and position coaches Scott Brown, Clancy Pendergast, Jason Tarver and Tim Lewis. That’s the kind of upheaval you’d expect after a disastrous season, not after four years of quality defense.
The 49ers reportedly want to “cause confusion” on defense this season, according to Antoine Bethea. At least so far, they have succeeded—it’s hard to parse out exactly what the 49ers’ new-look defense will be, considering the massive changes they’ve undergone. Only three starters remain from Super Bowl XLVII—Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks.
The best way to preview what the new-look defense might be in 2015 is to see just what the team needs to replace, and who’s still around to fill those snaps. However, by shifting from Vic Fangio’s defense to Eric Mangini’s, there should also be several philosophical changes.
Vic Fangio’s scheme is very basic, all things considered. The 49ers ranked 26th in the league last year, blitzing on about 22 percent of their snaps, according to PFF. They focused, primarily, on limiting mistakes and playing solid, fundamental defense, in which everyone knew their roles.
Any confusion on the offensive’s part was a result of players having interchangeable roles—either safety could play in the box, for example, or the inside linebackers could move to the outside while the outside ‘backers creep forward in a more traditional defensive end spot.
Mangini, on the other hand, likes moving players around. According to Bethea, the 49ers have been practicing on schemes to make the opposing offense not know what the defense will be doing on each down—disguising who will drop into coverage and who will bring pressure. You’re likely to see much more pre-snap movement and players coming from unusual positions in Mangini’s scheme, rather than Fangio's front-four-only style.
This could lead to more pressure on the quarterback, with the accompanying tradeoff of providing less help in coverage. The scheme-heavy game plan leads to more targeted defensive game plans, with the tradeoff being more opportunities for miscommunication and defensive mistakes on a play-to-play basis.
That’s neither good nor bad, just different. It also doesn’t mean the 49ers will become blitz-heavy. Mangini runs a fairly pure version of Bill Belichick’s defense, and the Patriots are normally at the bottom of the league in blitzes. They get their pressure by bringing players from unexpected locations, not by overloading the line with blitzers.
The confusion comes from varying the role of linebackers from play to play, hopefully leaving the opposing offensive line with no idea where the pressure might be coming from. Fangio would have Aldon Smith or Ahmad Brooks play up close to the line when they were rushing, tipping off who was coming. You’re likely to see less of that in Mangini’s scheme.
A 3-4 defense is still a 3-4 defense, however, so we can still do a lot of apples-to-apples comparisons. The same positional flexibility Fangio valued will help improve Mangini’s scheme. It’s certainly a more talented bunch than he had in New York or Cleveland. Let’s take a look, position group by position group, and see what the 49ers will need to replace in 2015.
All snap counts and grades come from Pro Football Focus
Defensive Line
| Justin Smith | 715 | 274 | 439 | 2 | +15.6 |
| Ray McDonald | 713 | 270 | 439 | 4 | +15.2 |
| Tony Jerod-Eddie | 426 | 186 | 239 | 1 | -13.0 |
| Quinton Dial | 329 | 186 | 239 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Other | 472 | 237 | 230 | 5 | +11.0 |
| Missing | 1,507 | 574 | 926 | 7 | +29.2 |
New additions: Darnell Dockett, Arik Armstead, Marcus Rush
With both starting defensive ends from a year ago gone, the 49ers have a ton of issues simply finding warm bodies to fill the lineup. In fact, none of the three starting defensive linemen are likely to come from the names in the table above.
At OTAs, the 49ers simply bumped Tony Jerod-Eddie and Quinton Dial up to the starting defensive end positions, with Ian Williams, recovering from a broken leg, sliding in at defensive tackle, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee.
Ian Williams' return is a major plus for the team; he was excellent when healthy last season. While nose tackle was the least important position in Fangio’s defense, having a stud like Williams in the middle of the line, especially on running downs, will be a major boost. When Williams went out, Dial took over and did a solid job, but Williams is simply better at the nose at this point.
That’s one of the three defensive line positions more or less squared away, but the two ends are a different story. The 49ers do not have proven replacements for either Justin Smith or McDonald—at least, not ones who can soak up 70 percent of the snaps at the position. We’re much more likely to see a rotation at the position, with players coming in in situations that play to their strengths rather than being jacks-of-all-trades like Smith and McDonald were.
It’s hard to know for sure who will take each role, because two key players are rehabbing injuries. Darnell Dockett missed the entire 2014 season with a torn ACL, and Glenn Dorsey missed the entire season with a torn biceps. They’re both still rehabbing those injuries, and we’ll have to see how their recoveries progress before really assigning roles.
If both Dorsey and Dockett end up healthy, my guess is that they'll become the nominal starters. While Dorsey has been primarily a nose tackle in San Francisco, he has plenty of experience as a defensive end from his time in Kansas City. He’s been better inside, but that’s probably due more to the change of teams rather than the change of positions. He can bounce back outside, especially on running downs, where he excels.
Dorsey’s never been much of a pass-rushing threat, however, even in Kansas City. That probably means he'll get subbed on pass-rushing downs, which will provide a bigger role for Tank Carradine. Carradine has, to this point, failed to see the field very much in his two-year NFL career. That’s to be expected, however, with players like Justin Smith and McDonald ahead of him.
In only 73 pass-rush snaps last season, Carradine racked up three sacks and four hurries, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s a pressure every 10.4 sacks, and only Dial topped that number among 49ers defensive linemen last season. At this point, Carradine might actually be a better pass-rusher than Smith would have been, considering their respective ages. It’s all projection at this point, but Carradine has the chance to be a better pass-rusher in 2015 than Smith would have been, when you consider their respective ages.
On the other side, a healthy Darnell Dockett wouldn’t, in theory, need to be substituted as much; he’s used to a healthy workload as a full-time starter in Arizona. He’s coming along slowly, however, and hasn’t been cleared for minicamp yet, according to Matt Barrows. Don’t expect him to jump up and absorb 600 to 800 snaps on the other side of the line; we’re likely talking about another rotation out there.
That’s where I like Quinton Dial.
As I said before, only Dial produced pressure more frequently than Carradine did last season, and he did it over more than twice as many snaps. By the end of the year, he was playing as well as anyone on the defense, as he grew into the starting nose tackle spot.
He’s not just a nose tackle, however; he was moved there in sort of an emergency sense, as he was rotating in at defensive end before Ian Williams went down in Week 10. Tomsula says he sees Dial as more of an end anyway, and I think he’d be very solid in a rotation with Dockett—possibly even simply beating Dockett out, if he can’t get healthy.
Where does that leave Armstead and Jerod-Eddie? Armstead is a developmental player and will need a season or two to fully achieve his potential; I wouldn’t expect too much out of him this year. Jerod-Eddie is another potential passing-down end, but I feel the 49ers have players with greater potential than Jerod-Eddie has at this point.
Linebackers
| Michael Wilhoite | 1,040 | 419 | 58 | 563 | -5.6 |
| Ahmad Brooks | 621 | 260 | 262 | 99 | -7.2 |
| Aaron Lynch | 521 | 157 | 330 | 34 | +5.3 |
| Chris Borland | 487 | 219 | 28 | 240 | +20.8 |
| Aldon Smith | 426 | 172 | 229 | 25 | +5.8 |
| Dan Skuta | 398 | 199 | 113 | 86 | +1.6 |
| Patrick Willis | 352 | 123 | 23 | 206 | +2.0 |
| Other | 315 | 118 | 120 | 77 | -14.9 |
| Missing | 1,237 | 541 | 164 | 532 | +24.4 |
New Additions: Eli Harold, Nick Bellore, Philip Wheeler
Numbers alone can’t express the impact of Patrick Willis' departure. He was the heart and soul of the defense, and the loss of him and Justin Smith simply shatters San Francisco’s defensive leadership. Someone is going to need to step in and fill those very massive shoes.
Fortunately, the 49ers have someone to do just that—NaVorro Bowman. Bowman should step in and become the new face of the 49ers defense, emerging from the second-banana role the national media assigned him in the shadow of Patrick Willis.
While losing the stellar one-two punch of Willis and Borland hurts tremendously, the 49ers are getting an All-Pro stud back after nearly 16 months of recuperation. His ceiling for 2015 should be Comeback Player of the Year, assuming he suffers no further setbacks in his recovery from the knee injury that cost him all of last year.
The other inside linebacking position, however, is an open question. Michael Wilhoite filled Bowman’s absence competently last year, but not well enough that he should consider his starting job 100 percent safe. Tomsula has highlighted Nick Moody in recent interviews. Moody started the last two games of 2014 when Borland went down with an injury. I think Wilhoite’s the leader at the moment by a sizeable margin, but he’s not unimpeachable.
One option we might see is moving Ahmad Brooks inside more. Jim Tomsula has been quite clear that Brooks is not moving inside, according to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, but I’m not so sure about that. Brooks was an inside linebacker in Cincinnati before coming to San Francisco, and Mangini’s defenses do value players who can play both inside and outside.
The 49ers also have a relative talent glut at outside linebacker. Aldon Smith won’t be receiving an eight-game suspension this year, knock on wood, and Aaron Lynch had a very impressive rookie season. The 49ers also used a third-round pick on Eli Harold, who I expect to see some rotational action this year. That, coupled with Brooks’ relatively low production last year and his being benched twice last season, could lead the 49ers to rely less and less on Brooks on the outside.
Honestly, the 49ers’ best pass-rushers at the moment seem to be Smith and Lynch, both of whom were much more efficient than Brooks was last season. One way or another, I’d expect them to get the majority of snaps at outside linebacker in 2015.
That does leave Brooks in a bit of an awkward spot, which is why we could see him move inside more in 2015, despite what Tomsula has said.
Mangini’s system, wherever he has gone, has featured interchangeable linebackers, with the line between an outside and inside linebacker blurring in certain situations. On pass-rushing downs, then, perhaps Mangini sticks Lynch and Smith at the edges and moves Brooks inside with Bowman to handle the middle of the field. This isn’t a set we ever saw under Vic Fangio, but it fits Mangini’s defensive philosophy. I wouldn’t expect Brooks to be a full-time middle linebacker, but we might see that definition flex a little bit in 2015.
Defensive Backs
| Antoine Bethea | 1,064 | 415 | 5 | 644 | +12.7 |
| Perrish Cox | 965 | 376 | 11 | 578 | +1.2 |
| Eric Reid | 902 | 355 | 8 | 539 | -0.3 |
| Chris Culliver | 839 | 311 | 1 | 527 | +8.0 |
| Dontae Johnson | 502 | 165 | 11 | 326 | -1.7 |
| Jimmie Ward | 270 | 61 | 10 | 199 | -6.4 |
| Other | 433 | 126 | 9 | 298 | -5.8 |
| Missing | 1,804 | 687 | 12 | 1,105 | +9.2 |
New additions: Shareece Wright, Jaquiski Tartt, Jermaine Whitehead
The bad news for the 49ers is that, of all three defensive units, they have more snaps to replace in the secondary than anywhere else. The good news is that, even though Chris Culliver played very well in 2014, the losses should hurt less in the secondary due to the quality of players missing and the sheer number of potential replacements.
While the loss of both starting cornerbacks, Culliver and Cox, will hurt, neither player was on the caliber of the Willises, Borlands or Smiths of the world. It means pushing players into starting roles they may not be prepared for, but the 49ers have plenty of potential options at the position.
One starting cornerback role will surely be held down by Tramaine Brock, coming off of an injury-plagued 2014 season. He had a breakout year in 2013, going from barely making the team to becoming a key starter in the playoff run and earning a new contract in the process. A healthy Brock isn’t a concern at all, and he should pin down one of the two starting positions.
Who will be the other starting cornerback, however?
I don’t think it will be Jimmie Ward, last year’s first-round pick. He’s more of a nickel corner, as he’s still converting from safety. He ended up with a negative PFF grade last season, but a lot of that is from his second game, when Brandon Marshall torched him for three touchdowns.
After Week 2, Ward was average in coverage, matching up well with Larry Fitzgerald, Anthony Fasano and Kenny Britt. While there was never a moment that made you go “Yes, this is why the team used a first-round pick on him," he got more solid as the year went on.
With 178 of Ward’s 199 pass-coverage snaps coming out of the slot, however, moving him to the outside has the potential to undo those strides he made as a rookie. The other outside corner position, then, should be a bit of a free-for-all.
Just based on salaries, you’d expect free-agent acquisition Wright to fill that gap. However, Wright has put up awful performances in San Diego the past few years, and unless he takes a huge leap forward in San Francisco, seeing Wright start over all the young talent the 49ers have would be a disappointment.
Personally, I prefer last year’s fourth-round pick Dontae Johnson. Johnson started the year deep on the depth chart, but as injuries piled up in the secondary, he was pushed further and further up the depth chart, moving from dime to nickel to starting cornerback. He played very well for a fourth-rounder.
While a couple of bad games at the end of the season, when he was matched up against opposing team’s top cornerbacks, hurt his overall numbers, he impressed when he wasn’t asked to be the top man in the secondary. For the first three-quarters of the season, Johnson was holding opposing quarterbacks to a 65.2 NFL rating, allowing just 0.53 yards per coverage snap. He was eventually forced into a role larger than he could handle as a rookie, but there was enough potential there to be intrigued by.
If not Wright or Johnson, it could be a redshirt. The 49ers drafted two cornerbacks in 2014 who missed the entire 2015 season, Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker. Reaser’s the one I feel has the greatest upside; he’s lightning-quick and seems fully recovered from his ACL injury; he was a full participant at OTAs, according to Matt Maiocco. He’s behind Wright on the depth chart at the moment, but don’t count him out of the competition just yet.
Tramaine Brock will be cornerback No. 1, and Ward will likely be the nickelback, but that leaves two key cornerback spots for Reaser, Johnson and Wright. That will have to be sorted out during camp and preseason.
With both starting safeties returning, second-round pick Jaquiski Tartt likely won't have much to do this season. Presumably, he'll replace Craig Dahl as the primary backup. Dahl had 184 snaps last season, mostly in pass coverage. If you’re hoping to see Tartt’s hard-hitting style, you’re probably going to have to wait a season or two to see any significant impact.
The 49ers could, however, use three safeties more in their dime packages in 2015—a dime secondary of Bethea, Reid, Tartt, Brock, Johnson and Ward would be the best-case scenario for the 49ers when it comes to their young talent developing.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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