NBA Free Agents 2015: Stock Up, Stock Down for Top Available Players
The midsummer melee that is NBA free agency is now less than two months away.
At 12:01 a.m. ET on July 1, front offices around the league will start throwing opulent offers to players whose free-agency stocks have gone up this season. Those who've seen their stocks fall could find themselves receiving low-ball offers.
This slideshow will present both sides of that coin. In alternating slides, available free agents whose stocks have gone up or down will be evaluated based on the following criteria: why they're in their current situation, what type of free agency they're entering and what level of basic production they provided in 2014-15.
Note that this feature will not include the names of some of the top free agents. In order to be on a stock-up, stock-down list, there has to be some movement of the player's individual stock.
LeBron James, Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love were always going to get max deals. They're still going to get max deals. Their stocks have topped out and aren't going down any time soon.
The list also won't include those with player options who aren't likely to turn them down in hopes for another contract. That eliminates Dwyane Wade.
That leaves us with the top available players who've either helped or hurt their summer prospects this season and could at least entertain the notion of signing a deal with a different team.
Aforementioned Omissions
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LeBron James
James has been the best player on the planet for the better part of a decade and will obviously command a max offer whenever he hits the market.
In addition to no movement in his general stock, there's also little chance he opts out of the second year of his deal with the Cavaliers. With the salary cap set to explode in the summer of 2016, according to Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com (h/t Pro Basketball Talk), James will wait till then to hit the market. A max offer next offseason will pay him significantly more.
Marc Gasol
With James seemingly off the market, Gasol has become the big fish of this class. He can expect offers from the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks as soon as free agency opens, according to ESPN.com's Michael Wallace.
Gasol has a level of comfort playing in Memphis, where he went to high school when his brother Pau played for the Grizzlies, but his teammates find the possibility of him joining the Spurs worrisome, according to USA Today's Sam Amick:
"There is confidence among Gasol's teammates that he won't want to leave their Grit & Grind core, but that Spurs possibility worries them.
— Sam Amick (@sam_amick) May 16, 2015"
LaMarcus Aldridge
Aldridge was always going to command a max offer as well. The only question was whether he'd take one from the Portland Trail Blazers over another suitor.
His teammates aren't so sure he'll be around for 2015-16, according to the Oregonian's Jason Quick:
"Some Blazers players have already said they are worried free agency will take Aldridge away from Portland this summer. Earlier this month, before a home game, a Blazers player estimated the chances of him returning to Portland at 50-50."
Kawhi Leonard
The free-agency fate of Kawhi Leoanrd was cemented in 2014, when the then-22-year-old wing secured Finals MVP.
Leonard's combination of size, athleticism, defensive prowess, demeanor and youth make him a surefire max-contract player. And as a restricted free agent, San Antonio can, and likely will, match any offer Leonard signs.
Kevin Love
Love's been surrounded by rumors for years, so it should come as no surprise that he's in the middle of them again.
In an episode of Grantland's Lowe Post podcast, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said, "Every executive I talk to, every agent I talk to, every quasi-insider, every girlfriend's cousin's sister's boyfriend all says this guy is out of there."
Inharmonious exits from two different teams in back-to-back offseasons would probably hurt the stock of most players, but Love is the only player in NBA history (minimum 100 minutes played) with a career rebounding percentage over 20 and a three-point percentage over 36. He's not most players.
Dwyane Wade
Wade has a player option that would allow him to opt out of the second year of his contract, but that seems unlikely for the 33-year old.
There is the argument that this summer could be Wade's chance to secure one final long-term deal, but more money will be available when the cap goes up next year.
Goran Dragic: Stock Up
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Free Agency Type: Player Option
2014-15 Numbers: 16.3 points, 4.5 assists and 50.1 percent from the field
Overall, Goran Dragic's stock is down from where it was following his career year in 2013-14, but it's up from the time of his trade to the Miami Heat.
The crafty point guard was never able to develop any rhythm in Phoenix this season, sharing ball-handling and playmaking duties with Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas.
A month after the trades that broke up that trio, Dragic said, "It was just, the chemistry was not the right thing," according to Mass Live's Jay King.
In Miami, there were flashes of the Dragic who made a living in the paint the season before. His points and assists were both up with the Heat and should see another boost following a training camp with whatever team he ends up on.
Furthermore, Dragic is expected to be the engine behind a faster-paced system in Miami, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald:
"Heat guard Goran Dragic, an impending free agent, feels strongly that the Heat must play faster and has been assured that’s a key part of the Pat Riley/Erik Spoelstra master plan, according to an an associate.
We’re told Dragic very much likes Spoelstra and Riley and nothing to this point has changed regarding the Heat’s status as front-runners to keep him.
"
Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra showing a willingness to appease Dragic's demands says a lot about the guard's stock within the organization. If he opts out of the final year of his contract, a long-term deal with the Heat is likely waiting.
Rajon Rondo: Stock Down
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Free Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Numbers: 8.9 points, 7.9 assists and 42.6 percent from the field
Rajon Rondo's stock isn't so much down as it is a pile of smoldering embers at the bottom of a dumpster. Why so harsh? The one front office that previously appeared interested in Rondo now has its concerns, according to Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding:
"So there remains a distinct possibility in today's pace-and-space NBA that the Los Angeles Lakers will be the torchbearers for the old school and sign the pass-first (nay, pass-only) Rondo to a free-agent contract this summer.
But what should be made clear, according to team sources, is that Buss is not the believer he was earlier in the season when it comes to Rondo, and Kupchak is toting enough healthy skepticism that he sees Rondo as value only at a certain low price.
"
Rondo's crash-and-burn tenure with the Dallas Mavericks, particularly in the postseason, is the cause for concern.
The Mavericks had an NBA-best offensive rating of 113.6 prior to the acquisition of Rondo on December 19. After the trade, they scored 104.1 points per 100 possessions, which was 13th in the league over that span.
Things got even worse in the postseason, when Rondo appeared outright despondent while he was on the floor. He played just 37 minutes in Dallas' opening-round series, before the team cooked up a story about a back injury and sent him home, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon.
In that pace-and-space NBA mentioned by Ding, a point guard who can't shoot (of the 107 players who logged at least 2,000 minutes in 2014-15, Rondo's true shooting percentage ranked dead last) and has attitude problems can't command much of a payday.
Brook Lopez: Stock Up
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Free Agency Type: Player Option
2014-15 Numbers: 17.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks
As Brook Lopez's minutes yo-yoed early in the season, so did his production. But once Brooklyn Nets coach Lionel Hollins began to trust his 7'0" center, he reasserted himself as his team's best player.
In March and April, Lopez averaged 20.7 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks while leading the Nets to a 14-11 record (they started the season 24-33).
The most encouraging sign from Lopez's season as a whole was his rebounding. His effort on the boards has been questioned for years, but he showed more fight this season. His rebounding percentage of 14.3 was the best he's posted since his rookie campaign.
In today's NBA, a 7-footer who can consistently score 20 points is rare. Commanding defensive attention inside will leave more room on the perimeter for shooters.
Brandon Knight: Stock Down
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Free Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Numbers: 17.0 points, 5.2 assists and 38.9 percent from three
Like Rondo, Brandon Knight found himself at the center of a midseason acquisition that went awry.
Due to various injuries, Knight only appeared in 11 games with the Suns and struggled mightily to find any rhythm as a shooting guard playing alongside Eric Bledsoe.
Prior to the injuries and shooting woes, Knight's stock was on the rise as the point guard behind the Milwaukee Bucks' surprising 30-23 start. In the 11 games he played with Phoenix, the Suns went 4-7.
Teams looking to add Knight will approach his restricted free agency with more caution, though anyone who's interested is likely to offer a bit more than they think he's worth in an effort to dissuade the Suns from matching.
If he had somehow maintained the pace he established for himself in Milwaukee, Knight could be entertaining near-max offers this summer from teams anticipating the upcoming hike in the salary cap.
DeMarre Carroll: Stock Up
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Free Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Numbers: 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 39.5 percent from three
DeMarre Carroll narrowly avoided a free-agency disaster in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
On a fourth-quarter drive, Carroll's left knee appeared to buckle under the weight of his entire body. He went down in a heap and writhed in pain before being carried off the floor.
Fortunately, the injury was revealed to be a bone bruise, something that's obviously better for a pending free agent than a torn ACL or other serious knee injury.
A bone bruise in your knee is painful, but teams know it will heal. And Sean Deveney of Sporting News has reported that there's already a line of suitors waiting to court Carroll:
"There’s a long list of teams already prepared to pursue Carroll this summer, including the Celtics, Lakers and Pistons. He boosted his scoring average from 12.6 points to 16.2 before the injury, and was shooting 51.3 percent from the field and 41.6 percent from the 3-point line. The Hawks want to keep Carroll, but his price has been driven up. With his defense and versatility, one league exec estimated his next deal at more than $15 million per year. The Lakers, a source said, have big-time interest in Carroll.
"
The 16.2 points and shooting numbers Deveney shared were in reference to Carroll's playoff performance, which is the primary reason for his booming stock.
In today's NBA, where three-and-D players are so highly valued, the versatile, sweet-shooting Carroll (39.5 percent from three this season) will field some big offers.
Wesley Matthews: Stock Down
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Free Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Numbers: 15.9 points and 38.9 percent from three
Wesley Matthews, who spent most of 2014-15 as perhaps the quintessential three-and-D wing, was on track for a massive pay raise before suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon in March.
Matthews' impact on both ends of the floor was evidenced by his net rating of plus-6.5, which was better that of LaMarcus Aldridge (plus-5.7) and Damian Lillard (plus-4.5), according to NBA.com. The only Blazer who played over 500 minutes and had a better net rating was Joel Freeland.
Matthews' importance was illustrated even further after he went down with the injury. Blazers general manager Neil Olshey explained (via Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune):
"As evidenced by our 11-15 record (actually 11-16) without Wesley and a first-round playoff exit for a team we thought had chance to compete for the Western Conference title, we know how important he is. We know his value to us; we also know he's going to have market value around the league.
"
But that impact Matthews had on games has to be weighed against the kind of injury he suffered. As detailed by CBSSports.com's Chris Towers, the history for NBA players returning from ruptured Achilles is troubling.
It's a long road back, and most return as a less effective version of themselves. Some never come back at all. An investment in Matthews this summer is a gamble that he'll be able to buck the trend.
DeAndre Jordan: Stock Up
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Free Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Numbers: 15.0 rebounds, 11.5 points, 2.2 blocks and 71.0 percent from the field
Whether he winds up returning to the Los Angeles Clippers or plays with some other team next season, DeAndre Jordan owes Clippers head coach Doc Rivers a thank you.
Throughout 2014-15, Rivers hyped up Jordan's defensive abilities to the media, building a reputation that belied what the big man actually did on the floor.
"DeAndre Jordan's reputation was Doc's most effective contribution this season.
— Seth Partnow (@SethPartnow) May 21, 2015"
The Clippers gave up 103.1 points per 100 possessions when Jordan was on the floor and 102.8 when he was off, according to NBA.com. He was 11th in the NBA in block percentage among those who played at least 500 minutes.
And yet Jordan was named to the league's All-Defensive First Team. In the minds of voters, Rivers made perception reality.
Now, we'll get to see to what degree the constant lobbying influenced scouts and executives around the NBA.
Tim Duncan: Stock Down
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Free Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Numbers: 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 blocks
Remarkably, 39-year-old Tim Duncan has stayed at or around the same level of production throughout a career that spans nearly two decades.
A look at his per-36-minutes numbers is staggering:
| 1997-98 ★ | 21 | 82 | .549 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 19.4 |
| 1998-99 | 22 | 50 | .495 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 19.9 |
| 1999-00 ★ | 23 | 74 | .490 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 21.5 |
| 2000-01 ★ | 24 | 82 | .499 | 11.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 20.6 |
| 2001-02 ★ | 25 | 82 | .508 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 22.6 |
| 2002-03 ★ | 26 | 81 | .513 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 21.3 |
| 2003-04 ★ | 27 | 69 | .501 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 21.9 |
| 2004-05 ★ | 28 | 66 | .496 | 12.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 21.9 |
| 2005-06 ★ | 29 | 80 | .484 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 19.2 |
| 2006-07 ★ | 30 | 80 | .546 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 21.1 |
| 2007-08 ★ | 31 | 78 | .497 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 20.5 |
| 2008-09 ★ | 32 | 75 | .504 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 20.7 |
| 2009-10 ★ | 33 | 78 | .518 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 20.6 |
| 2010-11 ★ | 34 | 76 | .500 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 17.1 |
| 2011-12 | 35 | 58 | .492 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 19.7 |
| 2012-13 ★ | 36 | 69 | .502 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 21.3 |
| 2013-14 | 37 | 74 | .490 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 18.7 |
| 2014-15 ★ | 38 | 77 | .512 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 17.3 |
| Career | 1331 | .506 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 20.4 |
So why is his stock down? At some point, Duncan has to hit a wall. And you would think the season in which he hits 40 would be it.
San Antonio has to start putting together pieces for the future. Kawhi Leonard is going to need some help after Duncan and Manu Ginobili retire (if that ever happens).
The opportunity to add LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol this summer is there, but it won't be possible unless Duncan takes a massive pay cut.
Jimmy Butler: Stock Up
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Free Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Numbers: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds and 37.8 percent from three
When he was taken with the 30th pick of the 2011 draft, few could've imagined that the Chicago Bulls would be Jimmy Butler's team by the 2014-15 season. Even as recently as six months ago, this campaign was supposed to be Derrick Rose's redemption tour, not Butler's coronation.
But as the 2015 offseason kicks off, there should be little doubt as to who Chicago's best player is. Butler led Chicago in points and steals, comfortably outshot Rose and made the NBA All-Defensive Second Team.
A basic comparison of Rose and Butler shows there's really no debate.
| Jimmy Butler | 25 | 65 | 38.7 | .462 | .378 | .834 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 20.0 |
| Derrick Rose | 26 | 51 | 30.0 | .405 | .280 | .813 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 17.7 |
Advanced numbers paint an even more lopsided picture.
| Jimmy Butler | 25 | 21.3 | .583 | .508 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 11.2 |
| Derrick Rose | 26 | 15.9 | .493 | .224 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Butler's breakout will undoubtedly force the hand of the notoriously stingy Bulls front office. As a restricted free agent, he's bound to get a max offer from someone. Chicago would be silly not to match.
Paul Millsap: Stock Down
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Free Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Numbers: 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 35.6 percent from three
First things first, Paul Millsap has had a stellar two-year run with the Atlanta Hawks and has likely earned himself a raise over the $9.5 million he made this season.
But that raise may not be quite as hefty following Millsap's performance in the postseason. It's not that he's been bad, but he has shown that he may not be able to carry a playoff team to any significant success.
The top-seeded Hawks struggled to put away the sub-.500 Brooklyn Nets, as well as a Washington Wizards team whose best player, John Wall, went through most of the series with five broken bones in his off hand.
Now, they're in the middle of a shellacking by the Cavaliers (a solid fight in Game 3 notwithstanding), all while Millsap is struggling to produce at the same level he did in the regular season.
A max deal for Millsap would pay him nearly double what he made in 2014-15, a big chunk of the salary cap for someone who may be an excellent system player and even an All-Star.
As Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick points out, there's often a difference between and All-Star and a superstar:
"So Friday night offered a study in the differences of stardom. The entire Hawks starting five was named Eastern Conference "Player" of the Month for their perfect January, and four of them were chosen for the All-Star Game. But in late May, you wouldn't trade James for all of them.
"
Again, none of this to say that Millsap's stock is down from where it was when he initially signed with the Hawks. But the chances of him signing a max or near-max deal have gone down over the last couple months.
Draymond Green: Stock Up
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Free Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Numbers: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks
Few things have been established more firmly in these playoffs than the fiery competitiveness of Draymond Green and what it means for the Golden State Warriors.
As the old saying goes, Green's the steak to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson's sizzle. He does the dirty work, and I mean all of it.
Lockdown defender? Of course he is that. He was named to the NBA All-Defensive First Team, after all. And he's showed an ability to guard all five positions this season.
Rebounding? Check. Even though he stands just 6'7", Green averaged 8.2 rebounds in the regular season and is grabbing 10.3 per game in the postseason.
He can pass, too. Green's assist percentage of 16.1 in 2014-15 ranked 11th in the NBA among forwards and centers.
And finally, Green even does the legitimately dirty work, like when he completely took Trevor Ariza out of a play in the Western Conference Finals and made it look like he wasn't at fault. The move inspired these tweets from CBS Sports' Matt Moore and the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen.
"Draymond Green is incredible at the Ric Flair “illegal move and make the ref thing your opponent did it” thing.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) May 22, 2015"
"Draymond Green with outstanding form on his tackle. No wonder I voted for him for defensive player of the year.
— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) May 20, 2015"
Title-worthy teams need players with Green's win-at-all-costs mentality. His attitude, in combination with his versatility, will make him one of this summer's most expensive free agents.
As he's of the restricted variety, expect some other team to offer him a max deal. And expect the Warriors to pursue trades involving David Lee, and possibly Andre Iguodala, to create the flexibility required to match whatever Green's offered.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and salary figures are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com and are current as of May 23, 2015.
Andy Bailey covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him @AndrewDBailey.
