What's at Stake for Sacramento Kings in 2015 NBA Draft Lottery?

One of the most important days on the Sacramento Kings' calendar is the NBA draft lottery. 

The Kings finished the 2014-15 season with a 29-53 record. But because of the lottery, Sacramento won't know where it's picking until after the ping pong balls are drawn on May 19. 

The only thing the Kings know currently is they'll have one pick in the draft—a first-rounder. And based upon their standing, they also know the selection will fall somewhere between No. 1 and No. 9. 

That provides an awful lot of variables. 

Getting lucky in the lottery and landing a top-three pick would give the Kings a shot at one of the draft's top prospects, a couple of which would also fill positions of need for Sacramento. On the other hand, bad luck and getting a selection in the No. 7 to No. 9 range could keep the team in no man's land, unable to add a real difference-maker.

Not to mention, the Kings are trying to make a playoff push in 2015-16, which could shape the way they approach the draft. Instead of drafting the best available prospect, they may take a player who has a high floor but lower ceiling in hopes of getting a quicker return on their investment. Of course, there's the possibility of Sacramento packaging its pick for an established veteran. 

Luck on Their Side

Ever since the Kings finished the 2008-09 season with the NBA's worst record yet landed fourth, they haven't improved on their draft position in the lottery. Maybe this is the year Sacramento has a little luck on its side. 

What happens if the Kings end up with a top-three pick, and who would be the best options in that scenario?

There seems to be a consensus on the draft's top four players among most experts. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman, ESPN.com's Chad Ford and Draft Express all have Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay at the top of their respective boards. 

Landing a selection in the top three would give the Kings a shot at one of these elite prospects.

Of the four, Towns, Mudiay or Russell would be the best fit when aligning need with talent. 

While both Okafor and Towns are projected as centers in the NBA—a position occupied by DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings' best player—Towns is the more versatile of the two. 

Unlike Okafor, Towns has some range to his offensive game. He showed a solid mid-range jumper at Kentucky, which would enable him to play next to Cousins without having to occupy the same space. The center also proved to be a more versatile and effective defender. 

Okafor, on the other hand, did the vast majority of his work near the hoop. While he does have a strong post game, he wouldn't be able to space the floor. His offensive game is also his calling card, so it's not as if the Kings could make up for any detriment he causes on offense with an impact on defense.

	% of shots at rim	% shots 2pt J	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Towns	43.4	53.5	43.1
Okafor	61.9	38.1	50.0

Mudiay and Russell are both point guards. After drafting 2-guards in back-to-back seasons, the Kings would need to be sold on their ability to man the point in the NBA, a position both of them played last season (Russell at Ohio State and Mudiay in the Chinese Basketball Association). 

Assuming they could, that would be the ideal situation for the Kings. With Darren Collison and Ray McCallum, plus the potential return of veteran Andre Miller, a rookie point guard wouldn't be thrown into the fire and expected to run the offense. He could play in spurts and develop over time without the weight of unrealistic expectations. 

The Bad Luck Continues

If the bad lottery luck continues and the Kings end up with the seventh, eighth or ninth pick, they may need to take a different approach than simply drafting the best available prospect. 

One possibility is packaging the selection for an established player. Of course, by virtue of falling further down the lottery, the team wouldn't get the same return that it would have had it landed nearer the top.  Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee had this to say:

Then it becomes a question of weighing the current value of a veteran against the long-term potential of a lottery draftee.

One other consideration along those same lines would be drafting a player who has less upside but also needs less developmental time to be effective. In this scenario, they would most likely be drafting for need, but not necessarily positional need. It would more than likely be a player who could provide a specific skill, such as defense or shooting.

But as we've seen in recent years, drafting with a skill in mind doesn't always work out. In the last two drafts, the Kings selected Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas because each was thought of as the best perimeter shooter. Neither was able to provide much impact as a rookie, with the team passing on players who would have been better overall fits, as laid out by the Sacramento Bee's Jones. 

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The Kings’ obsession with shooting the past two years led to them passing on two point guards who aren’t perfect but would have added needed size in the backcourt. Six-foot-6 Michael Carter-Williams was the Rookie of the Year in 2014, and 6-4 Elfrid Payton was one of the best rookies last season. But they aren’t knockdown shooters, making them less desirable.

The Kings, however, could have used another player skilled at setting up teammates, which might have improved their shooters’ percentages.

"

After finishing the season ranked 21st in three-point percentage (34.1) and with the third-fewest average made three-pointers per game (5.6), the Kings are once again looking to bolster their shooting.

But in talking to Jones, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla points out that the Kings should be wary of once again drafting for need.

"

To me, point guard and shooting are the two areas they must shore up, and if D’Angelo Russell slid to the Kings, they would find themselves in a very, very fortuitous position.

I would not reach and take someone they do not think is in the top six, like (Wisconsin’s Frank) Kaminsky or (Murray State’s) Cameron Payne or (Kentucky’s) Devin Booker. I would take the best player available and find shooting somewhere else.

"

The Ideal Scenario

Landing the No. 1 overall pick would be the ideal scenario for a couple of reasons. It would obviously allow the Kings their shot at anyone on the draft board, along with providing the most return if they wish to trade the pick instead. 

As Fraschilla mentions, drafting Russell would probably be the perfect fit since he would provide some shooting ability but also be an ideal option in the long term. 

Of course, given the logjam of players in the backcourt, playing time would be scarce for Russell initially. So in terms of providing the short-term boost needed to contend for the playoffs, Russell wouldn't be the best fit.

Yet even though landing the top pick would be ideal, it isn't likely. There's only a 6.3 percent chance of it happening.

Two options who may be better in the present than Russell, and who are more realistic targets since they're projected to go closer to where the Kings will likely pick, are Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein and Duke's Justise Winslow. 

As a center, Cauley-Stein plays a position the Kings already have set. But the versatility the big man provides on defense would make him worth the investment. Even with Cauley-Stein's 7'0.5" height and 244-pound frame, he's got enough agility to stick with power forwards or small forwards. While he's raw offensively, the impact he makes on the less glamorous end makes up for it.

Winslow provides similar defensive ability, albeit at different positions. He can guard point guards, shooting guards and small forwards. That would allow him to make an impact even with players ahead of him on the depth chart. Additionally, the forward showed the ability to knock down long-range shots while at Duke (41.8 percent).

While the Kings have aspirations of making the postseason, they can't go into the draft with that in mind, unless it involves trading the pick. Sacramento needs to draft the best available player for its future and let the present take care of itself.

Get It Right

Above all else, the Kings need to maximize their pick, whether that's by selecting the right player or getting the right return in a trade. After all, this may be their last chance of drafting this high for a while.

Ideally, the Kings would make the postseason, which would obviously mean they're no longer picking in the lottery. But even if it doesn't, Sacramento owes its 2016 first-round pick to the Chicago Bulls (via the Cleveland Cavaliers) if it's not within the top 10. 

Not to mention, Sacramento isn't exactly a free-agent destination. Finding impact players through that avenue is a pipe dream. That leaves trades as an option for bringing in talent, but in order to get something of value, you have to give something of value. Having a young player on a cheap contract is the type of asset that could bring back the sort of impact the Kings need.

The Kings have spent the last nine seasons watching the playoffs from home. Unfortunately, they don't have much to show for it. Of their lottery picks, DeMarcus Cousins is the only one who developed into a true game-changer. Tyreke Evans and Isaiah Thomas are good players, but Sacramento essentially traded them away for nothing.

Thomas Robinson and Jimmer Fredette were major disappointments. Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have had serviceable NBA careers, but they're not the type of players you can build around, while the jury is still out on Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas.

The Kings are in this position, with nearly a decade-long playoff drought, because they haven't capitalized on the draft as well as they should have. For that reason, they can't afford to get it wrong this time.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.

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