Predicting Which College Football Stars Will Lead Major Stat Categories in 2015
Our fascination with sports statistics is something that will likely never die, and if anything it has become more pronounced with the creation of advanced metrics. College football hasn't delved very deep into that pool just yet, as basic stats still hold the most weight.
And while leading the major statistical categories doesn't automatically correlate to future success as a professional (or even current success for college teams), we still keep a close eye on who throws, runs or catches for the most yards, who scores most often and who on defense is making the most tackles, sacks and interceptions.
Many of last year's FBS leaders in the top stat categories have either graduated or turned pro, so we'll have several new names atop those lists for 2015.
Here's our prediction for the most significant stat leaders, based on a review of top returning players and the amount of production expected from them this season.
Total Passing Yards
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Last year's mark: 4,830 (Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky)
Predicted 2015 leader: Luke Falk, Washington State
Even though we're going with a pure total rather than a per-game average, look for Washington State's latest throwing machine to beat out Western Kentucky's Doughty. Doughty's title last year should come with an asterisk, since WSU senior Connor Halliday was on pace to challenge the FBS single-season record (5,833) before suffering a broken leg in the ninth game of the season.
Halliday was replaced by Falk, a redshirt freshman who promptly threw for 1,773 yards and 12 touchdowns (on 241 attempts) in four games. Prior to that, he'd appeared in two games and thrown just two passes.
With Cougars coach Mike Leach's penchant for passing—the top two single-season tallies in FBS history came from his quarterbacks at Texas Tech—and disinterest in running the ball, Falk will throw it at least 50 times per game.
WSU might not be good enough to make a bowl, thus limiting Falk to 12 games (compared to as many as 14 for Doughty if Western Kentucky plays in the Conference USA title game and a bowl), but WSU averaged nearly 478 passing yards per game and figures to come close to that number in 2015.
Rushing Yards Per Game
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Last year's mark: 184.79 (Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin)
Predicted 2015 leader: Kareem Hunt, Toledo
If not for an ankle injury that kept Hunt out of three games last season, we would have had three 2,000-yard rushers in FBS instead of just Gordon and Indiana's Tevin Coleman. To put that in perspective, there have only been 18 such outputs ever.
Hunt, a 5'11", 220-pound junior who won't turn 20 until August, is still "growing into a build that is approaching X-Men thresholds," according to Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer. He has also yet to play a full season without getting hurt or as the featured back, starting only three games in 2013 and playing in just 10 contests a season ago.
In all 13 of those games, though, he ran for at least 100 yards. He also topped the century mark in a few that he didn't start in 2013, and his 163.1 yards per game in 2014 were the third-best nationally.
Toledo, one of the top contenders for the Mid-American Conference title, will face five opponents that ranked 90th or worse in run defense last season. The Rockets also play Iowa State (123rd against the run) and Arkansas State (105th, and against whom Hunt ran for 271 yards and five touchdowns in January's GoDaddy Bowl).
Receptions
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Last year's mark: 124 (Amari Cooper, Alabama)
Predicted 2015 leader: Keevan Lucas, Tulsa
Lucas had 101 of his team's 263 receptions in 2014, a lost season in which Tulsa went 2-10 and saw coach Bill Blankenship get fired. Now under the guidance of former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, the Golden Hurricane's passing game figures to take a major step forward, which means the 5'10", 198-pound junior will see even more targets.
During Montgomery's three seasons as Baylor's OC, the Bears had at least 277 receptions every year with a high of 323 last year. Baylor's receiving corps was far deeper than what Tulsa has, and therefore no player had more than 97 catches under Montgomery. Though he plans to rotate as many as eight wideouts at Tulsa, Lucas will still be the go-to guy.
"He's a guy who plays the way you want him to play," Montgomery told Kelly Hines of the Tulsa World. "He brings it every time he steps on the field."
Lucas had five games with at least 10 catches last year, including a 13-catch, 233-yard, three-touchdown performance in Tulsa's season-opening overtime win over Tulane.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Receiving Yards Per Game
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Last year's mark: 145.8 (Rashard Higgins, Colorado State)
Predicted 2015 leader: Higgins
Higgins was one of the biggest breakout players of 2014 as a sophomore, more than doubling his production from the year before with 96 receptions for 1,750 yards and an FBS-best 17 touchdowns.
And while Alabama's Amari Cooper got all the headlines, as well as an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York and a high first-round draft slot, Higgins was the most unguardable receiver in the country for several weeks.
In October Higgins became the first FBS wideout since Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree in 2007 to gain at least 175 receiving yards in three straight games. He then went for only 174 the following week.
Higgins' numbers would have been higher had he not missed a game due to injury and been held to just one catch (which went for a 16-yard touchdown) in the season-opening win over rival Colorado. Taking into account his numbers for the other 11 games, the 6'2", 188-pounder would have gone for 112 catches, 2,049 yards and 19 TDs.
The FBS record is 2,060 yards, set in 1999 by Nevada's Trevor Insley.
New Colorado State coach Mike Bobo, who developed Matthew Stafford and Aaron Murray while an assistant at Georgia, should rely heavily on Higgins while breaking in new starter Nick Stevens.
Touchdowns Scored
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Last year's mark: 32 (Jay Ajayi, Boise State; Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin)
Predicted 2015 leader: Keenan Reynolds, Navy
A stat dominated by running backs was shared by two standout rushers last season, but both are off to the NFL. That opens the door for the only non-RB since 2003 to lead the nation in touchdowns scored to reclaim his crown.
Reynolds ran for 31 TDs in 2013, tying with Colorado State's Kapri Bibbs for the national lead while also setting a record for rushing scores by a quarterback. The 5'11", 195-pound option QB also set the FBS single-game mark for TD runs by a passer, scoring seven times in a triple-overtime win over San Jose State.
He was on pace to come close to that mark again last season had he not suffered a pair of injuries that kept him out of two games. His 23 touchdowns were still sixth-best, and he enters his senior year needing just 14 scores to surpass Montee Ball's FBS career mark of 77 rushing TDs.
Navy joined the American Athletic Conference this season, and with that league featuring a title game, the door is open for Reynolds to play as many as 14 games. He's scored 54 of the Midshipmen's 95 rushing TDs the past two seasons as the main ball-carrier in the triple-option attack.
Sacks
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Last year's mark: 19 (Hau'oli Kikaha, Washington)
Predicted 2015 leader: Joey Bosa, Ohio State
As great a season as Bosa had last year, and with the amount of hype he's getting as a potential No. 1 draft pick in 2016, his statistics weren't close to the best in the country. His 13.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss were far behind the national leaders, though admittedly neither Kikaha nor TFL leader Scooby Wright of Arizona was playing under as bright a spotlight.
But entering his junior year, the 6'6", 275-pound Bosa is apt to play like someone who not only wants to give Ohio State a second consecutive national title but also one worthy of being drafted first overall.
"Watching the film, I could see that plays could just fall into my lap, and as long as I'm doing my job, I'll make even more plays," Bosa told Austin Ward of ESPN.com. "I saw five or six sacks that I could have had."
Bosa didn't have a sack in any of the Buckeyes' three postseason games and was without one in four other regular-season contests. If he manages to get at least one per outing, with as many as 15 games on the schedule Bosa should not only win the FBS sack title but also challenge former Arizona State star Terrell Suggs' mark of 24 set in 2000.
Tackles
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Last year's mark: 163 (Scooby Wright, Arizona)
Predicted 2015 leader: Wright
Arizona won the Pac-12 South Division and 10 games last season despite having a defense that gave up 28.2 points per game and ranked 105th in yards allowed. Those figures would have been far worse had Wright not been doing everything—literally—for the Wildcats while on the field.
Besides leading the nation in tackles, Wright also had FBS bests in tackles for loss (29) and forced fumbles (six) while also registering 14 sacks, 10 more than any other Arizona player. His team's 4-2-5 alignment often brings in extra linebackers on obvious passing situations, but Wright rarely got subbed out and as a result had at least seven tackles in every game and recorded 99 solo takedowns.
Ironically, it was one of those season-low-tackle games where the 6'1", 245-pound sophomore ended up making the biggest impact: His strip sack of Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota in the final minutes led to a fumble recovery that preserved Arizona's upset win.
Interceptions
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Last year's mark: 14 (Gerod Holliman, Louisville)
Predicted 2015 leader: Darian Thompson, Boise State
There were eight players in FBS who had at least seven interceptions last season, but six of them have either graduated or turned pro. The only one to return is Thompson, who had seven picks as a junior.
The 6'2", 210-pound safety has upped his interception total every season, from three as a freshman to four in 2013. He and fellow senior-to-be Donte Deayon, a cornerback, combined for 13 picks in 2014 and are both strong candidates to be the national leader this season.
The edge goes to Thompson because of his size—Deayon is only 5'9" and 170 pounds—and because opponents might try to throw away from the side of the field Deayon is covering. They can't do that with Thompson, who roams around and reads the quarterback before bolting toward the path of the ball.
Field Goals Made
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Last year's mark: 30 (Josh Lambert, West Virginia)
Predicted 2015 leader: Roberto Aguayo, Florida State
Aguayo won the Lou Groza Award as a freshman when he made 21 of 22 field goals during Florida State's national championship run. He was 27-of-30 last season but was edged out for the award by Maryland's Brad Craddock.
Already more than halfway to the FBS career record of 88 field goals set from 2009-12 by Seminoles predecessor Dustin Hopkins, Aguayo could see his involvement in the offense pick up even more as FSU looks for a replacement for Jameis Winston at quarterback.
With range well beyond 50 yards, the 6'1", 204-pound junior has already belted three from that distance in his career.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
