NBA Playoff Schedule 2015: TV Info, Predictions for Clippers vs. Rockets Game 7
Feisty underdogs in the second round of the 2015 NBA playoffs created some brief chaos, but the favorites have restored order thus far. The top two seeds in the Eastern Conference and the league-leading Golden State Warriors all advanced in six games, with each squad erasing 2-1 series deficits.
The No. 2 seed Houston Rockets have an opportunity to make the conference finals an all-chalk bracket, though Kevin McHale's squad hardly feels like the heavy favorite against the Los Angeles Clippers. Houston's point differential in this series actually sits at minus-35, and if not for a miraculous bench lineup that spurred a remarkable fourth-quarter comeback in Game 6, this series would also be over.
But with Game 7 at the Toyota Center, the Clippers are now the team under duress. Read on for full TV info and game predictions, as well as the most critical key for each squad to advance.
What: Clippers at Rockets, Game 7
Date: Sunday, May 17
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Stream: Watch ESPN
All TV and streaming info via ESPN.com.
Keys and Predictions
Clippers Key: Get Bench Help
Los Angeles is a top-heavy team that is more reliant on its stars than any other team remaining in the field. In a do-or-die setting, there might be a temptation for head coach Doc Rivers to roll with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan for 40-plus minutes, hoping that his All-Stars can give him one more push to keep the season alive.
However, that would run counter to how the Clippers established a 3-1 series lead in the first place. The much-maligned Austin Rivers had averaged 16 points per game over the first four contests before a hip pointer injury limited him to 5-of-19 shooting over Games 5 and 6.
Jamal Crawford has similarly cooled off, going 6-of-29 from the field (including 2-of-9 from three-point range) in Houston's last two wins. Rebounding has been the much-discussed key factor in this series, but in reality, bench scoring has held a fairly strong correlation with winning:
| 1 | 28 | 27 | LAC |
| 2 | 24 | 31 | HOU |
| 3 | 25 | 46 | LAC |
| 4 | 23 | 41 | LAC |
| 5 | 36 | 24 | HOU |
| 6 | 37 | 16 | HOU |
Given that the Rockets have stumbled upon a bench lineup that works for them, the Clippers will need a reliable counter when Houston turns to its changeup. Paul and Griffin appeared noticeably worn by the end of Game 6, and if the Rockets get to dictate the game with their up-tempo pace, Los Angeles will most certainly need its reserves to produce more than the 16 points they tallied in Game 6.
L.A.'s starting lineup has been dominant this series, but it's also been the most frequently used lineup of any team in the postseason, per NBA.com. It's not really tenable to continue this pattern for another game, let alone two more rounds if the Clippers advance.
Rockets Key: Win Howard vs. Jordan Matchup
Dwight Howard became the clear second fiddle this year amid James Harden's MVP-caliber campaign, but Superman has been the Rockets' most important player this series. One need look no further than Thursday night's game, when Howard's presence, not Harden's, was the catalyst behind Houston's season-saving road win:
Apart from a wretched seven-point, six-rebound Game 5 showing, Howard has been the best Rockets player in this series. His dominance in Game 6 allowed the Rockets to turn away from the wretched Hack-a-Jordan strategy, a Catch-22 that helped Houston slow down the Clippers offense but also stunted their own scoring.
However, the bench-heavy lineup that led the comeback was a throwback to Howard's Orlando Magic heyday, as McHale surrounded him with shooting and ran the offense through the big man's post ability. According to his ESPN shot chart, all 12 of his field-goal attempts came in the paint, with a heavy tilt toward the right block.
Howard will need a similarly dominant two-way performance at home. Jordan's rim protection has been the key to wrecking a Houston offense heavily reliant on Harden's slashing ability. Howard provides them an alternative avenue to generate points, and though it's less efficient in a vacuum, it's exactly the type of offense they need to beat this particular opponent.
Game Pick
Obviously, past history shouldn't necessarily account for the difference in this series, especially given how snake-bitten both franchises have been in the postseason. And yet one stat keeps coming to mind when thinking about how Game 7 might unfold:
The Clippers have looked like the better team for three games and three quarters this series. The fourth quarter of Game 6 is freshest in everyone's minds, but that paralyzing frame doesn't change the fact that the Clippers are outscoring the Rockets by nearly six points per 100 possessions this series, per Basketball-Reference.com. For reference, that per-100 possessions difference is roughly the same margin by which the Warriors outpaced the Memphis Grizzlies during the regular season.
Hosting the game gives Houston a tiny edge. However, if the Clippers are more assertive offensively and can close out on the Rockets shooters, look for Los Angeles to break through its second-round ceiling and take on the Dubs in the Western Conference Finals.
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