NBA Free Agents 2015: Top 10 Players 25 Years and Under
As we move closer to the start of free agency, NBA executives are preparing to place some of their franchises' biggest bets.
Gauging future production isn't an exact science, so it's always a gamble to invest millions in a player's development. But few of those investments are more intriguing than the ones made in young free agents.
Because there's a track record to work with, there's more of a safety net than an unproven rookie can offer. But there's also considerably more upside than teams can find in a free agent who has reached or even passed his prime.
Assuming LeBron James sticks with the Cleveland Cavaliers—either under his current pact or on a new, short-term deal—this free-agent crop isn't overloaded with stars. It is, however, packed with up-and-comers who could reach that elite status in the near future.
For those clubs itching for young talent, this is the only shopping list they'll need. These are the 10 best free agents age 25 or under, ranked by ability (current production), versatility (how easily they'd fit in different systems) and potential for growth.
10. Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics
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Age: 24
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 7.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 13.9 PER
Jae Crowder is never going to be an All-Star. His offensive arsenal simply isn't deep enough to support that kind of ceiling.
But his relentless motor will let him maximize the full potential of his physical gifts. And his tenacity will always yield major dividends at the defensive end, where his combination of confidence and solid instincts can lead to some frustratingly long nights for the opposition's top perimeter threat.
Crowder projects more as a jack-of-all-trades than a master of any. He can't carry an offense, but he can jolt it with his willingness to attack the basket and the selflessness to share the ball. He's the type of role player every good team needs—one who understands that simply playing hard is a skill on its own.
Teams shouldn't need to break the bank in order to sign him, but it won't be cheap to pry him away from the Boston Celtics. His heart made him an instant fan favorite for the Shamrocks, and he can provide a similar lift for any club looking to breathe new life into its second unit.
9. Tristan Thompson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age: 24
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 8.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 54.7 field-goal percentage, 15.6 PER
For as much as fans and analysts praise versatility in today's game, there's still something to be said for players who possess a defining skill. Fourth-year forward Tristan Thompson is one of them.
He's an elite presence on the offensive glass. That might come across as being a tad hyperbolic, since he averaged fewer than 27 minutes per game this season. But the numbers say the label fits him well.
He's had a top-10 offensive rebounding percentage in three of his four NBA seasons: second in 2011-12 (14.4), seventh in 2012-13 (13.2) and fourth in 2014-15 (14.5). His career 13.2 mark actually outpaces some of history's greatest glass-eaters, such as Charles Barkley (12.5), Dikembe Mutombo (11.9) and Shaquille O'Neal (11.7).
Thompson understands his role with the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is a critical step toward actually mastering it. He plays within his limits, as evidenced by the dramatic strides he's made in efficiency: from 43.9 percent shooting as a rookie to 54.7 percent this year.
"My thoughts on Tristan are [he is] always ready, always energetic and always willing to do whatever it is to help the team," Cavs coach David Blatt told ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "Those three things are what make him special for us."
If Cleveland wants to keep Thompson—who shares an agent with LeBron James—it will have the right to match any offer he receives. But that price tag is likely rising as Thompson uses the postseason stage to showcase the growth he's experienced since being selected fourth overall in 2011.
8. Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns
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Age: 23
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 17.0 points, 5.2 assists, 38.9 three-point percentage, 17.1 PER
Brandon Knight is more of a scoring guard than a scoring point guard. The latter implies a deeper set of playmaking skills than he has in his bag of tricks.
That means not all teams are built to bring in Knight. Doing so requires the presence of a superior distributor, either an actual point guard (like the Phoenix Suns have in Eric Bledsoe) or a passing swingman (such as James Harden or LeBron James).
The fact that Knight doesn't neatly fit every puzzle type hurts him a bit here. But the handful of clubs capable of bringing him on board can get a player who posted at least 16 points and four assists per game over each of the last two seasons, a claim only 17 others can make.
Knight can shred nets from distance (he was shooting 40.9 percent from three before the Milwaukee Bucks sent him to Phoenix at the deadline), and he's strong enough to finish plays around the basket. His passing ability looks a lot better if he's viewed as a combo guard as opposed to a traditional point. And he's quietly become a defensive pest, thanks in no small part to his 6'6.75" wingspan (per DraftExpress).
He does a lot of things well, provided he's put in the right situation. The Suns have the right system for him and seem likely to keep him after parting with a future first-round pick to acquire him.
7. Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons
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Age: 25
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 14.5 points, 6.0 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 17.2 PER
Reggie Jackson always envisioned something greater than the sixth-man role that the Oklahoma City Thunder could give him. When a three-team deadline deal netted him the starting-point guard gig for the Detroit Pistons, he finally had his chance to show what he could do in the spotlight.
He definitely didn't waste that opportunity. He averaged 17.6 points and 9.2 assists in 27 games for the Pistons, becoming one of only a dozen players to post multiple triple-doubles. Detroit outscored opponents by 3.0 points per 100 possessions when Jackson was on the floor and was outscored by 9.1 points per 100 possessions when he wasn't.
He certainly didn't hurt his free-agent stock in Motown, but it's hard to say how much the experience really helped.
"There is a sense that Jackson's individual numbers with Detroit are akin to empty calories," wrote Sports Illustrated's Alex Hampl. "The Pistons were never really going anywhere... Plus, Jackson's numbers were likely inflated by his incredible usage rate, which rose to 28.4 percent in Detroit."
Jackson's career shooting marks peg him as a volume contributor (43.2 percent from the field, 29.4 from deep), and his inability to stretch the floor is tough to stomach in today's wide-open game. But he's obviously a talented player who should get a long look from any team shouldering question marks at his position.
6. Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
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Age: 22
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 36.4 three-point percentage, 16.7 PER
Tobias Harris is the proverbial riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. He's either really good, or he's really good at posting empty stats that don't actually help his team.
Grantland's Zach Lowe noted that Harris "can be a ball-stopper" and "doesn't grind on defense." But Stephen Shea of Basketball Analytics dubbed Harris "the NBA's most underrated player" and noted that the 22-year-old's skill set "is perfectly suited for the modern NBA game."
If opinions are split this widely on the outside, imagine what kind of discussions the Orlando Magic are having about Harris' impending free agency. General manager Rob Hennigan has said the team "intends" to keep Harris "no matter what" the cost, via Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel.
But is Harris a no-doubt max player? Would he still be touted as underrated if his price tag climbed to such heights?
Those are tough questions that Hennigan and his staff will have to answer this summer. Harris has a gift for scoring, but his game hasn't expanded much beyond that.
If he grows as an off-ball defender and his three-point shooting proves sustainable (he shot just 28 percent prior to this season), he could be the steal of this free-agent class. If not, he could wind up signing one of the summer's worst contracts.
5. Khris Middleton, SG, Milwaukee Bucks
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Age: 23
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 13.4 points, 2.3 assists, 40.7 three-point percentage, 15.6 PER
Khris Middleton did a little of everything for the Milwaukee Bucks this season.
According to Basketball-Reference, he played every position but point guard. He seamlessly transitioned through multiple defensive assignments. He opened the year as a secondary scorer and floor-spacer, then closed it as Milwaukee's No. 1 option after Knight left (16.8 points per game after the All-Star break) and a reliable source of crunch-time buckets.
"Middleton has diversified his game to the point that he is more aggressive in the post and taking advantage of certain matchups," wrote Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "He's also dangerous shooting the corner three and in the mid-range game."
Scoring well from the post, perimeter and mid-range doesn't exactly leave a lot of empty spaces on the floor. And Middleton's offensive growth was undeniable.
It was not, however, the strongest aspect of his game. That honor was reserved for the defensive side of the ball, where he posted a 4.11 defensive real plus-minus—which ranked eighth overall and fourth among perimeter players, via ESPN.com.
Middleton's future looks blindingly bright, and the Bucks would be foolish not to be a part of it.
4. Greg Monroe, PF, Detroit Pistons
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Age: 24
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 21.2 PER
Greg Monroe's bruising game on the block looks like it was transported from the NBA's past. While so many clubs are running and gunning, the Moose operates best at a slower, plodding pace.
But the league still has a place for Monroe's low-post mastery. That's the only conclusion one can reach when realizing he's one of only four players to average at least 15 points and nine boards in each of the last four seasons.
Monroe has a few unavoidable blemishes that look worse under the move to pace-and-space play. His offensive range doesn't reach far outside the restricted area. And he offers almost nothing in the rim-protection department.
But if a team can live with those weaknesses, it can take full advantage of his many strengths.
He can run an offense from the post, either creating his own shots or finding them for his teammates. He's a relentless rebounder, who ripped down the 16th-most contested boards during the regular season (4.2 per game). And he's a smart defender, even if he's not the most athletic one.
There are a few superior options available, but teams could do a lot worse than tying their future to his.
3. Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
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Age: 25
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 16.4 PER
If you designed the perfect power forward for today's NBA, he wouldn't look like Golden State Warriors stretch 4 Draymond Green. He'd definitely be more athletic and undoubtedly taller than the (generously listed) 6'7" Green.
But that manufactured forward might play a lot like the man dubbed the Warriors' "heart and soul" by head coach Steve Kerr, via Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group.
Green's game is defined by versatility. He was the league's only player to average at least 11 points, eight boards, three assists and one triple per game. And those marks don't even include his 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks, two items that helped him net more first-place votes for Defensive Player of the Year (45) than Kawhi Leonard (37), who actually won the award.
In 2012, the Warriors selected Green with the 35th pick. Three years later, he has cemented himself as an indispensable piece of the team's championship puzzle.
"There are more important players on the Warriors roster—one, to be exact. And he just collected the MVP award," wrote Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes. "Beyond Stephen Curry, Green is the player Golden State can least afford to lose."
With the right of first refusal, the Warriors don't have to lose Green. But it looks increasingly likely that it's going to take a max-contract commitment to keep him around.
2. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Age: 25
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 21.3 PER
No player raised his stock higher this season than Chicago Bulls fourth-year swingman Jimmy Butler.
Last season, he seemed over his head in a complementary scoring role. He averaged just 13.1 points a night, while shooting only 39.7 percent from the field and 28.3 percent from distance.
This season, he emerged as the unlikely leading scorer of a squad that featured five-time All-Star Pau Gasol and former MVP Derrick Rose. Despite the added volume, Butler bumped his conversion rates to 46.2 percent on field goals and 37.8 percent on long-range looks.
And he did this all while 1) handling Chicago's toughest defense assignment and 2) pacing the entire league in minutes per game (38.7).
"He's a star, and he does it on both ends of the floor," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau raved in November, via ESPN Chicago's Nick Friedell. "He's just an amazing player. ... He's smart, he's tough, he does whatever the team needs."
The Bulls have asked for a ton from Butler, and he's delivered on all fronts. The NBA's Most Improved Player netted himself a massive raise in the process, which Chicago will almost certainly pay.
Butler's two-way play and growing offensive ceiling earned him the second spot here. But there's still one more free agent who's younger and more accomplished than him.
1. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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Age: 23
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 22.0 PER
Kawhi Leonard's NBA resume is insane for a player of any age, let alone one who has yet to celebrate his 24th birthday.
Over his first four seasons in the league, Leonard has already been a world champion, a Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year. And that combination might be more impressive than it already sounds. Since the Defensive Player of the Year was first handed out in 1983, only three players have ever won it and a Finals MVP: Leonard, Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan.
How's that for historical company to keep?
As terrifying as this thought is, Leonard is only getting started.
"He's still kind of a neophyte as far as the things we're doing with him," San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said, via Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News. "It takes time, and he's progressed very quickly. But his upside is down the road."
In other words, this isn't the best that Leonard can be. He hasn't even averaged more than 32 minutes or 13 field-goal attempts yet. His offensive game is growing, and his defense has already been recognized as the league's best.
It's hard to say what his future might hold—other than greatness.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.
