Warriors' Key Adjustments Leave Grizzlies with Nowhere to Turn
The Golden State Warriors changed things up in a decisive Game 4 win against the Memphis Grizzlies, seizing momentum with critical defensive tweaks that allowed everyone (no, seriously, almost everyone) who predicted the Dubs would advance to breathe a little easier.
Memphis' survival now depends on its ability to counter Golden State's suffocating defense with adjustments of its own.
And that's the issue.
In fact, that was the issue long before the Warriors' Game 4 win.
Ethan Strauss of ESPN.com laid it out after the Dubs trounced a Mike Conley-less version of Memphis in Game 1:
"This is a series between a flexible team and one that cannot shape itself to the situation. With Mike Conley injured, the Grizzlies are depleted at point guard, left without viable alternatives. ...
There are issues beyond the point position, though. With defensive ace Tony Allen in, they struggle to score. With postup savant Zach Randolph in, they struggle to defend. Any lineup choice compromises them in some significant way, and their foe just doesn’t have that problem.
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Conley returned after Game 1, and the Grizzlies feasted on a Warriors club that, for some reason, never fully sold out to exploit Memphis' other vulnerabilities.
That changed in Game 4 when the Dubs ruthlessly double-teamed Randolph and Marc Gasol on the block, forcing tough kick-outs against a rangy, scrambling set of help defenders just itching to jump passing lanes.
And by completely ignoring Allen on offense, Golden State declawed the Grizzlies on both ends; Allen's hitchy, unreliable jumper (he took and badly missed three completely uncontested three-pointers in the first five minutes) made it impossible to keep him in the game.
ESPN's Amin Elhassan snapped an image that said everything about the Warriors' plan:
Gasol summed it up, per GSW Fastbreak:
Instead of making every second hell for Stephen Curry and/or Klay Thompson on the other end, Allen was glued to the Memphis bench for all but 16 minutes in the contest.
That's where the Grizzlies are now: tied up 2-2 and heading to Oakland for a pivotal Game 5, making the trip knowing they'll need to change something significant to avoid a repeat of Game 4.
But what can they do?
Replacing Allen with a more threatening shooter on the wing—which is relatively easy because there's really no such thing as a less threatening shooter than Allen—would seem to be the play. To be fair to Allen, he hit 34.5 percent of his threes this year, but the sample was exceptionally small (29 total attempts), and his career accuracy rate is just 27.1 percent.
Plus, just look at that form.
Among Vince Carter, Beno Udrih and Jeff Green, the Grizzlies have three options with enough long-range accuracy to at least make the Warriors pay attention to them. With one of those guys on the court in place of Allen, Golden State couldn't get away with camping Bogut near the lane to help out on Gasol and Randolph post-ups.
But Allen would still be off the floor in that scenario, and the negative impact on Memphis' defense would remain.
Because as you may have heard, Allen is good at defense.
ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton noted that the Warriors' offensive rating climbed from 94.4 points per 100 possessions with Allen on the court to 108.1 with him on the bench in Game 4, so taking him out of the rotation entirely seems like a real gift to Golden State.
Elhassan offered an alternative:
"On offense, Allen behaves like a big in terms of his comfort zones and shot locations. That's how Memphis needs to tweak its offense: by putting Allen into big situations (as the roll man in pick-and-rolls, as a weak-side screener, etc.), it would force Bogut (or whoever is matched up against him) to have to actively guard him, or risk giving up open looks to more accomplished offensive players who are utilizing those screens to create space.
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That seems like a better plan than trusting playoff fates to Green or Carter, but using Allen as a de facto big man comes with plenty of downside.
For one thing, it would congest the middle considerably, which would allow the Warriors to continue creating chaos with active hands and multiple bodies inside.
Moreover, though Allen would be a bigger threat as a screener than as a shooter, he's still not someone who finishes well in traffic or passes reliably to teammates when covered. The Warriors couldn't ignore him to the extent they did in Game 4, but it's possible involving Allen in more mid-range and interior actions would still hurt Memphis' offensive flow.
At the very least, Golden State might not be able to get away with using Bogut on Allen if he got his touches closer to the basket. And anything the Grizzlies can do to keep Allen on the floor for defensive purposes is helpful.
It's just hard to see such a tweak swinging the series back in Memphis' favor.
What the Grizzlies lack in strategic variety, they may just try to compensate for with some old-fashioned grit (and grind, too, I guess). This team has enjoyed tons of success in recent years by sticking to its guns.
As the league has prioritized threes, Memphis has worked the ball inside. As paces have quickened, Memphis has stayed deliberate.
In many ways, the Grizzlies' defiance defines them.
So it's no wonder Allen's approach to being ignored on offense is a stubborn one, per Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group:
It's tempting to counsel against big changes for the Grizzlies—not just because their roster makes major overhauls all but impossible, but also because doubling down on what got them to this point makes logical sense.
A single instance of playoff adversity shouldn't necessarily force a team to abandon everything that worked over the vast sample of the regular season. The Grizzlies depended on Allen to punish opponents all year, and his success in that effort was a big part of his team's strong campaign.
Giving up on him now, after one conspicuous failure, would feel like a betrayal of Memphis' larger identity.
At the same time, head coach Dave Joerger will be the one taking heat if his game plan doesn't feature a new wrinkle and the Grizzlies lose Game 5 for the same reasons they lost Game 4. That would be a bad look, and if only in the interest of self-preservation, he'll be highly motivated to make a tweak.
Joerger's options are limited, and none figure to be cure-alls. And no matter what, the Warriors' depth and versatility will allow them to counter whichever one Joerger selects.
Golden State made its adjustment in Game 4, and maybe the Grizzlies will find the perfect counter. If they do, it'll be a shock to everybody.
Because right now, it doesn't look like one exists.
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