Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins Set for Battle to the Finish

All manager Jim Leyland talks about during the season is playing meaningful games in September.

I think we can check that one off the list.

But now the question arises: Will the Tigers be playing meaningful games in October?

On the surface, they lead a three-team race for the Central Division title. If you search a little deeper though, I think most would agree this is a battle between the Tigers and Twins. The White Sox have essentially taken their name out of the running by losing seven of their last eight games.

ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports they are offering up their veterans for one-month rentals among a select list of other teams, so, while they could still play their way back into it, management seems content to punt the season away.

The Twins, meanwhile, fell as many as six-and-a-half games behind in the division earlier in the month only to rally to three and one-half back. They made August acquisitions of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay to help shore up their bullpen, after adding Orlando Cabrera at the July 31 deadline.

While they are still longshots—Baseball Prospectus' and Coolstandings.com simulations both had them at 19.9 percent chances to win the division entering play Monday, and at CoolStandings that number was up to 28.4 percent after Monday's games—there is time enough for them to make up the distance, and the teams meet seven more times this season.

So to help us prepare for the final month or so of the regular season, I thought I'd look closer at the Twins' and Tigers' schedules and see what might happen.

Schedule glance

The Twins play teams with a combined winning percentage of .460, per CoolStandings, while the Tigers face an ever-so-slightly harder .465 fixture. So not a great difference.

The Twins play 14 of their remaining 31 games at home, while 17 of the Tigers' remaining 32 games are at home.

The toughest team the Twins face? Detroit for seven games. It's actually the only team they face with a winning percentage above .500, three games in Minnesota and four in Detroit. They also have home-and-home series against the White Sox (Minnesota won the opener Monday at the Metrodome), Indians and Royals. They travel to Toronto for four games, and host Oakland for three.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have to travel to Florida still to face the Rays for three games. The Twins are the only other team above .500 on their schedule. They, too, have home-and-home series against the Indians, White Sox and Royals remaining, while their four-game set with the Blue Jays will be played at Comerica Park.

Common opponent breakdowns

The Tigers have won 23 of 36 games against the White Sox, Royals and Indians, while the Twins have taken 20 of 36.

Against the White Sox: Detroit's results show it is capable of winning series at home or on the road. The Twins beat the Sox at home, while the Sox beat the Twins at home. (Of course, the teams had not met in the second half before Monday, so caution should be taken in reading into that.)

Against the Royals: I think it's safe to say both the Tigers and Twins are not bothered by the locale when facing Kansas City and should do fine the rest of the season.

Against the Indians: Surprisingly, the Indians have taken four of the last six games against the Twins, winning series in both the Metrodome and at Jacobs Field. The Tigers have taken four of six at both Jacobs Field and Comerica Park, and should probably keep winning about that rate.

Against the Blue Jays: Both teams faced them in April. Toronto had a very different team then. I'm not sure if that tells us much of anything.

How the schedules play out

Best case, I see the Twins going 18-13 (.581). I know they played under .500 for most of the year, but based on their opponents and their schedule, I do think it's possible for them to play near .600 ball and give Detroit quite the challenge. Worst case? I still see 16-16. They've stumbled in the past, but I feel like .500 is their floor with this schedule.

So that puts them between 81-81 and 84-78.Most likely they'll win 83 I'd guess.

But, I have to say, I don't really think the Tigers have a late-season choke in them. So, unless something bad happens, I think it's easy to imagine them being able to go 16-16 the rest of the way.

So the worst case puts Detroit a game better than the Twins' best case record. The Tigers, too, could win as many as 18 or 19 games if things go well, making the last week of the year is a lot easier on the fans' psyches.

Most likely? I'm going to put the Tigers at 17-15 from here on. That gives them an 86-76 record.

Conclusion

Like everyone has thought all along, this is going to come down to the final week. The White Sox will want to play spoilers with both the Twins and Tigers, and they'll get two series against the Tigers in the final 10 days. That does scare me a bit, but Detroit has handled the challenge against them so far this season. And if they end up trading away some of their better players still, that might help.

I feel like the Tigers might have a chance to clinch the division with Minnesota in town at the end of September, depending how the exact records shake out when they enter the series.

In any case, yes, this does project to be a nail-biter of a month. The Tigers and their fans have reason to feel some confidence, but there's definitely reason for worry as well.

Kurt Mensching writes for MackAvenueTigers.com