NBA Draft 2015: Latest Mock Draft, Biggest Boom-or-Bust 1st-Round Prospects
More than a month after crowning college basketball's national champion, the NBA draft process is finally ramping up. Top prospects have been in Chicago most of the week for the combine, albeit in a largely disappointing turnout.
Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, Emmanuel Mudiay and both top international players (Kristaps Porzingis and Mario Hezonja) were chief among those opting out of drills altogether. A vast majority of the other potential first-rounders participated in athleticism drills only. The list of players who went 5-on-5 in drills is largely filled with second-rounders who are fighting just to ensure they'll get drafted; Terry Rozier was probably the closest thing to a first-round lock in the field.
The decision-making process here is obvious. Lottery picks have nothing to gain and everything to lose at the combine. A good performance only reaffirms what we already know—this person can dominate other college players—while a disappointing one would lead to teams taking an extra look at the film. Advisors leading the likes of Towns, Okafor and Mudiay smartly view the combine as a no-win scenario and instead push them to knock interviews out of the park.
While a smart business decision, it does little for those of us trying to accurately assess the first round. So instead of taking stock of the combine in our latest mock, let's instead highlight some boom-or-bust prospects
Mock Draft
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Robert Upshaw, C, Washington |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Justin Anderson, SG/SF, Virginia |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky |
Boom-or-Bust Prospects
Cliff Alexander, F, Kansas
Safe to say Alexander was far closer to the latter than the former at Kansas. Ranked as the No. 4 prospect in the country coming out of high school, Alexander was expected to take the Joel Embiid/Andrew Wiggins route to the lottery.
Instead, he'll be lucky to hang in the first round. Alexander struggled from the outset and never got going, averaging 7.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game before eligibility issues cut his campaign short in February. It wasn't as if Alexander was coming into his own at the time, either; he played a grand total of 27 minutes in his final three games in Lawrence.
Selecting Alexander is entirely about trusting the pre-collegiate process. Say what you will about the process of ranking these kids from the time they're toddlers, but it's surprisingly effective. At least eight of the top-10 players from the 2014 high school class will be first-round picks, most of which will do so in the lottery.
Alexander would make it nine out of 10. Odds are, by the time we get to draft day he'll have emerged as that ninth lock. Though he didn't show it in college, Alexander is a sensational athlete with two-way upside who plays far bigger than his 6'8" size.
He'll likely get the bump in stock the Harrison twins would have had they entered the draft last year. There's still just enough potential there to justify taking him somewhere in the 20s. Even if it doesn't work out, no harm, no foul. But if Alexander starts flashing the potential that made him an elite high school talent, he could be the steal of the draft.
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
Mudiay isn't the same mystery man Dante Exum was a year ago even if it feels like it. Scouts have droves of tape leftover from his high school years and the digital age makes it not-so-hard to obtain footage from his one-year run in China if you so choose. There is less film on Mudiay than most lottery picks, but there is more than enough to cobble together a cogent scouting report.
Watching Mudiay instantly reminds you of John Wall or Russell Westbrook. They're the same type of explosive athlete, melding shooting guard size and jitterbug quickness to relentlessly attack the rim. Flashes of Westbrookian aggressiveness in the open court portend well to his development. His 6'9" wingspan and athleticism give him All-Defensive potential.
The problem is "potential" remains the best thing about Mudiay's game.
His quickness and aggressiveness are only effective in the open court when he remembers the basketball, which happens far less often than it should. Elite NBA defenders are going to embarrass him a few times next season unless he's made real strides with his ball-handling. Much like a young Westbrook, passing is more the thing that happens when he doesn't shoot than an actual skill; his basketball IQ is a real problem when he needs to survey the floor.
There is a bit of a bull-in-the-china-shop feel to his game, and not in a good way. Couple that with the fact that he absolutely cannot shoot right now—defenses are going to dive under every pick-and-roll for Mudiay until he finds some level of competency—and he's probably a couple of years away from making a real impact.
Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
Looney's another UCLA prospect (like Zach LaVine last year) who probably isn't ready for pro basketball but has all the physical tools to be a star. He's a 6'10" stretch 4 with an improving jumper and above-average athleticism that reminds you a bit of Serge Ibaka. Though a lesser athlete than Ibaka, Looney is already farther along in the development of three-point range and can actually create for himself in a pinch.
Unfortunately, Looney is also rail-thin. There is no chance he can bang with the likes of Zach Randolph down low, and he's not quick enough to defend most 3s. Looney's essentially built like Kevin Durant at this point. He'll need to add at least 25 pounds to his frame before reaching competency on the defensive end, which is a shame, because his length makes him a decent rim protector.
Guys like Looney are tough to project. He averaged 11.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game last season but will struggle with rebounding against NBA bigs. He also didn't show nearly enough willingness to use his length, averaging under a block per night. It's as if he decided to become Ibaka on the offensive end without doing the dirty work on the other end.
You wonder whether a Trey Lyles type could have put up better numbers if given Looney's number of opportunities. As it stands, Looney will be a lottery pick while Lyles fights to stay in the top 20.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia
The following is a list of international players who never played college basketball taken in the lottery over the last decade:
| 2005 | Fran Vazquez | Bust |
| 2005 | Yaroslav Korolev | Bust |
| 2006 | Mouhamed Sene | Bust |
| 2006 | Thabo Sefolosha | Role Player |
| 2007 | Yi Jianlian | Bust |
| 2008 | Danilo Gallinari | Borderline Role Player / Starter |
| 2009 | Ricky Rubio | Starter |
| 2011 | Enes Kanter* | Borderline Role Player / Starter |
| 2011 | Jonas Valanciunas | Starter |
| 2011 | Jan Vesely | Bust |
| 2011 | Bismack Biyombo | Role Player |
| 2014 | Dante Exum | Pending |
| 2014 | Dario Saric | Pending |
There are only 13 players on that list—far from a statistically significant sample—but the NBA remains generally bad at developing international talent. In fact, the reason there are only 13 such lottery prospects is because general managers were burned so many times in the early 2000s. This is in no way an indictment of international basketball—to be sure, there have been plenty U.S.-born busts—but the rate at which stars are born is very low.
Ricky Rubio is probably the closest thing we have to a true success story, and it'd be pretty easy to name 15 point guards you'd rather build around. For all the bustling talent overseas, there is something lost in translation.
All of this makes the recent international renaissance a little scary. Dante Exum and Dario Saric were lottery picks a year ago, with Exum struggling mightily as a rookie and Saric still a year away from his NBA debut. Porzingis and Hezonja will follow in their footsteps in June, and there is a lot to like from both players.
Porzingis was rising toward the lottery last year and projects as an offensive force. He's long and athletic with solid range, and he doesn't shy away from using his body on the defensive end. A strength coach will be necessary to help him avoid being bullied, but Porzingis is more than worthy of being a lottery selection.
Hezonja is a highly skilled swingman with the ability to light up a scoreboard. He can create for himself off the dribble, pull up from three-point range and has enough athleticism to finish at the rim. There is also no willingness to play defense to be found anywhere in his game.
There's a lot to like with both guys. But history says to be wary. Let's hope it's wrong.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
Recruit rankings via 247sports.
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