NBA Free Agents 2015: Ranking the 10 Most Under-the-Radar Prospects
As the playoffs are inching closer to the NBA Finals, there are already 22 teams in full-fledged offseason mode, scouring the free-agent market in search of the perfect fit—perhaps even hoping to snag a great player flying under the radar.
Some will be able to chase the big-name unrestricted free agents like Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan. Some may be hoping that Kevin Love opts out of the second year of his deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Others may try to pry restricted free agents like Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard away from their respective teams.
The majority of the buzz among media and fans will be centered on those players and others near their talent level, and most of the available money will head that way too.
However, there is a strong crop of unsung free agents who may not be getting the attention their abilities suggest they should. Many of these players are in roles that don't fully showcase what they do well. Because of that, they may be available at a relatively low price.
These rankings aren't based on who's the best at basketball, but rather which player is most under the radar. Who might look like a bargain in a year or two?
Analytics have come far in recent years, but there's still no metric to definitively measure something as subjective as being under the radar. So, if there's anyone you think is missing, be sure to share their name and an explanation in the comments section.
10. Thomas Robinson, PF
1 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 5.7 points, 5.6 rebounds
Free Agency: Unrestricted
It's hard to believe that Thomas Robinson, who's already played for four different teams, has only been in the NBA for three seasons.
Wherever he goes, there are flashes of the athleticism that made him the No. 5 pick in the 2012 draft, but he just hasn't found the right fit yet.
The brightest flash he's had so far in his career came in his last stop. As a member of the Philadelphia 76ers, Robinson averaged a ridiculous 17.1 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes.
The problem for Robinson is that he typically struggles to finish against length inside. Even with Philadelphia, he only shot 46.7 percent from the field.
If he were to develop even one countermove in the post and raise his field-goal percentage over 50 percent, he could be one of the steals of this free-agent class. The energy he provides on the boards and elsewhere makes him a valuable backup big, at the very least.
9. Joe Ingles, SF/SG
2 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 5.0 points, 2.3 assists, 2.2 rebounds, 35.6 3P%
Free Agency: Restricted
Joe Ingles' value is intangible, perhaps more so than any other player on this list. The 27-year-old rookie's basic numbers don't jump off the page, but his presence on the young Utah Jazz was critical to the team's late-season success (15-9 since March).
In a number of interviews with players and coaches throughout the season, Ingles' name came up as a leader and source of humor in the locker room.
Coach Quin Snyder had this to say about Ingles, per Gordon Monson of The Salt Lake Tribune, "He's been a catalyst for a lot of the growth our team has had throughout the year—in ways that aren't always visible to people from the outside."
Someone who can be a glue guy like that is valuable, even if he's your fourth or fifth player off the bench. Someone who can keep everyone on an even keel and be a buffer between coaches and players is valuable.
It's especially useful when that player can produce, which Ingles did over the last four months of the season. Since Jan. 1, Ingles shot 40.1 percent from three and averaged four assists per 36 minutes.
8. Marco Belinelli, SG
3 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 9.2 points, 37.4 3P%
Free Agency: Unrestricted
With shooting from the wing at a premium, teams are going to throw big-money offers to Danny Green, Khris Middleton and even the recently injured Wesley Matthews this offseason. The second tier of shooters will features names like Marco Belinelli, who could be had for less money and still provide plenty of pop from the outside.
| Marco Belinelli | 2008 | 2015 | 502 | .392 | .514 | 9.4 |
| Danny Green | 2010 | 2015 | 323 | .420 | .565 | 9.6 |
| Wesley Matthews | 2010 | 2015 | 441 | .393 | .534 | 14.3 |
| Khris Middleton | 2013 | 2015 | 188 | .403 | .518 | 11.8 |
The difference between Belinelli and Green, Middleton and Matthews is twofold: He's older and nowhere near the defender the others are.
Belinelli is mobile enough to be an effective team defender, though, and in a role like he had in San Antonio, that weakness can be mitigated. Considering the hot streaks he's capable of, the trade-off is worth it.
Look no further than Belinelli's Game 6 against the Los Angeles Clippers, when he went 7-of-11 from downtown and nearly clinched the series for the Spurs on his own.
7. Ed Davis, PF/C
4 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 8.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 60.1 FG%
Free Agency: Player Option
Rookie Jordan Clarkson and 25-year-old big man Ed Davis were perhaps the only two bright spots for the Los Angeles Lakers this past season.
Davis was particularly effective, finishing the season as the only Laker with a player efficiency rating of 20 or better. But even that may not be enough for the Lakers to keep him around.
Tucker Tashjian of Silver Screen and Roll explained in an online roundtable discussion: "I'm a big Ed Davis fan. But I feel like he will get offers from other teams that the Lakers shouldn't and won't match, ultimately letting him go."
Tashjian and the rest of the crew in the roundtable pointed to Los Angeles using up much of its future money on flashier names like Kevin Love or DeAndre Jordan. As the old saying goes, that could make Davis another man's treasure.
On an absolutely abysmal Lakers team, Davis somehow managed to be efficient. He led L.A. in PER, rebounding percentage, block percentage and win shares (doubling second-place Jeremy Lin in that category).
6. JaVale McGee, C
5 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 4.6 points, 2.7 rebounds
Free Agency: Unrestricted
Let it out. Laugh it up.
Got that out of your system? OK, now let's see if we can find a legitimate argument for why JaVale McGee should be on an NBA roster next season.
First and foremost, he'll come cheap. Over the last two seasons, McGee has played in a grand total of 28 games, averaging 5.0 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.0 block in those appearances.
Injuries and attitude issues have kept McGee on the bench and in suits, but at 27, he's still on the right side of 30 and has the kind of length and athleticism teams are after these days.
He's 7'0" with a 7'6" wingspan and led the entire NBA in block percentage in 2010-11. Among players who've appeared in at least as many games as McGee (382), his 7.0 block percentage is sixth all-time:
| 1 | Manute Bol | 1986 | 1995 | 3.3 | 10.2 |
| 2 | Jim McIlvaine | 1995 | 2001 | 1.7 | 8.8 |
| 3 | Shawn Bradley | 1994 | 2005 | 2.5 | 7.8 |
| 4 | Theo Ratliff | 1996 | 2011 | 2.4 | 7.2 |
| 5 | Serge Ibaka | 2010 | 2015 | 2.6 | 7.0 |
| 6 | JaVale McGee | 2009 | 2015 | 1.8 | 7.0 |
| 7 | Greg Ostertag | 1996 | 2006 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
| 8 | Mark Eaton | 1983 | 1993 | 3.5 | 6.9 |
| 9 | Alonzo Mourning* | 1993 | 2008 | 2.8 | 6.6 |
| 10 | Chris Andersen | 2002 | 2015 | 1.5 | 6.5 |
At the right price, McGee is worth a shot. If a coach and front office make it clear from the start that he's there to be a new-age big who protects the rim on one end and dunks on the other, it just might work.
5. Aaron Brooks, PG
6 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 11.6 points, 3.2 assists, 38.7 3P%
Free Agency: Unrestricted
Aaron Brooks is what teams are often looking for in a backup point guard: someone who can offer a change of pace and scoring pop off the bench.
His size (6'0", 161 pounds) puts him at a severe disadvantage, but he makes up for it with speed and three-point shooting. Again, a worthwhile trade-off for a reserve.
If this story sounds familiar, it's because Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau has done this before.
Diminutive backup point guards always seem to thrive off Thibodeau's bench, which has been a bit of a double-edged sword, according to Basketball Insiders' Joel Brigham: "Unfortunately, the Bulls are seldom able to afford to keep these bargain players following big seasons. It’s one-and-done, mostly because Thibodeau finds ways to rejuvenate players exactly like Brooks."
Brooks is likely to be signed for more than the minimum this summer (which is what he played for in 2014-15), but he could still fly under the radar with some of the other big names that will be available.
4. Brandan Wright, PF/C
7 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 7.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 64.2 FG%
Free Agency: Unrestricted
It was a tale of two seasons for Brandan Wright. One was with the Dallas Mavericks, in which he averaged 8.8 points and shot a ridiculous 74.8 percent from the field; the other was with the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns, in which he averaged 6.4 points and shot 57.9 percent.
Wright's numbers with Boston and Phoenix were still strong for a backup big, but nowhere near what he was doing in Dallas. Was he just a system guy with the Mavericks?
The simple answer is, yes, of course he was. But that doesn't mean another team can't replicate, or at least come close to replicating, what Dallas did with Wright.
As the big man in Dallas' pick-and-rolls, Wright drew multiple defenders into the paint with how hard he rolled to the rim, which left shooters open outside. If the perimeter defenders stayed home, Wright was left alone at the rim or with one defender who wasn't big or athletic enough to deter his high-releasing finishes.
A lot of that is contingent on surrounding Wright with enough shooters to present defenses with the option, but teams all over the league are trending toward that now. Shooting is one of the hottest commodities on the market, and a player like Wright demands attention in the middle.
3. Kosta Koufos, C
8 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 5.2 points, 5.3 rebounds
Free Agency: Unrestricted
Generally, when you hear about the dominant frontcourt of the Memphis Grizzlies, it's all about Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Both are All-Star-caliber players, so it makes sense.
But the third big in this rotation, Kosta Koufos, quietly put together a very strong campaign just ahead of his trip into unrestricted free agency this summer.
For Koufos, his value is tied to defense. He faced 4.2 field-goal attempts at the rim and held opponents to 46.9 percent shooting. That's nearly 3 percent better than Gasol and over 6 percent better than Randolph. Koufos' defensive rating of 94.8 was the best of any Grizzly who played at least 1,000 minutes.
And those numbers aren't entirely the product of defending backup centers. Memphis often deployed Koufos and Gasol in a twin towers' look that forced Gasol to defend on the perimeter at times. Grizzly Bear Blues' Kevin Yeung wrote about the pairing in January:
"Impenetrable isn't the right word for a Gasol and Koufos frontcourt, but certainly a twin towers pairing has a harder shell to crack. There will always be someone to contest looks in the paint, and conveniently with these two bigs, they also happen to be difficult to expose outside of it. Both are mobile enough to handle assignments that take them to the perimeter.
"
Being a mobile 7-footer who can defend both bigs will make Koufos valuable this summer, though his average of 16.6 minutes will temper it a bit.
As teams around the league continue to get smaller, Koufos will remain relevant due to his ability to both chase around stretch 4s and bang inside with traditional 5s.
2. Tobias Harris, SF/PF
9 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 36.4 3P%
Free Agency: Restricted
A lot of this season's buzz surrounding the Orlando Magic centered on the explosive backcourt of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. Borderline All-Star Nikola Vucevic got plenty of attention too.
The odd man out (at least in terms of attention) often appeared to be the productive, 22-year-old combo forward Tobias Harris.
The 6'9", 235-pound Harris has the size to play stretch 4 in the modern NBA. He also has the skill and athleticism to slide to the 3. Basketball Analytics' Stephen Shea, in an article claiming Harris is the most underrated player in the league, designated him as a "versatile forward":
"The NBA game is changing, and then so should the type of players made to thrive in it. Modern NBA offenses need to emphasize floor spacing, but a team can’t field five J.J. Redicks simply because they can shoot. NBA teams also need size and strength. Thus, a new position, the Versatile Forward (VF), was born. Forwards must have the size to defend bigger opponents and to rebound. In the modern game, the best forwards, the VFs, will also be able to step out to the perimeter, shoot the 3, and in the ideal scenario, attack off the dribble.
"
Teams looking to embrace this new trend could find exactly what they're looking for in Harris, a versatile forward who can defend multiple positions and attack in a variety of ways on the other end.
Because Orlando has to be concerned about paying Payton, Oladipo and Vucevic, a big enough offer to Harris may cause the Magic to balk at matching and retaining him.
1. Cory Joseph, PG
10 of 10
Basic 2014-15 Stats: 6.8 points, 2.4 assists, 36.4 3P%
Free Agency: Restricted
It seems like the San Antonio Spurs never run out of business-only role players who produce above and beyond what was expected of them.
As CBS Sports' Matt Moore tweeted, it looks like we can add Cory Joseph to that list:
"Cory Joseph has been a total revelation this year. Yet another guy who comes in does his job, gets a chance, makes the most of it for SAS
— Matt Moore CBS (@MattMooreCBS) January 28, 2015"
A big part of Joseph's job in San Antonio was on the defensive end, where he was more effective in slowing down opposing 1s than starter Tony Parker.
That's really been his specialty since he came into the league in 2011. But now he's added a little offense to round out his game. For the first time in his career, he shot over 50 percent from the field and over 33 percent from three.
| 2011-12 | 29 | 1 | 9.2 | .314 | .200 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 2012-13 | 28 | 9 | 13.9 | .464 | .286 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 4.5 |
| 2013-14 | 68 | 19 | 13.8 | .475 | .316 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 5.0 |
| 2014-15 | 79 | 14 | 18.3 | .504 | .364 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 6.8 |
| Career | 204 | 43 | 14.9 | .474 | .314 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 5.2 |
Great defensively and solid offensively is a combination that would make Joseph a great backup point guard option for a number of teams, and he's proven capable of stepping in and starting in a pinch.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and salary figures are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Andy Bailey covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him @AndrewDBailey.
