The Top 10 Closers of the 2015 NBA Playoffs
When your team is up late in a close playoff game, these are the guys you want controlling the rock.
The clock is ticking down toward triple zeroes. The crowd is hitting decibel levels that can only be described as raucous. The spotlight is making sweat glisten as it flows out of every pore during the pressure-packed situation.
But these closers don't care. They're still going to get the job done, ensuring that their squad emerges victoriously instead of squandering the late lead. They're the ones who would make Alec Baldwin proud (warning: NSFW language).
For our purposes, relevant situations will be defined as the last five minutes of games separated by five points or fewer. That's enough time for a team to put a game out of reach or watch as the opponent draws closer during a tight contest, but it's also close enough to triple zeros that the pressure is truly on. Beyond that, a player's team must be leading.
You can't close from behind, after all.
Unfortunately, our minds often lie to us when we're figuring out which players perform at the highest level in the clutch. We're swayed by volume rather than effectiveness, which tends to create warped and inaccurate perceptions. Plus, the ability to remember a lone game-winner at the expense of a dozen missed attempts is dangerous.
To counteract the misleading attempts of our brains, it's time to turn to the numbers. That's why I'm using what I call Closer Rating, a metric that combines efficiency with involvement, to grade each player who has suited up in crunch time during the playoffs.
To calculate it, three steps are required:
- Make sure the player in question qualifies for the rankings. To avoid the effects of small sample size, I'm setting cutoffs as follows: at least five combined attempts from the field and the free-throw line and a usage rate of at least 25 percent.
- Calculate points produced per shot, which you can do by multiplying assists by two, adding points, subtracting turnovers and then dividing that result by field-goal attempts. Unfortunately, there is an inherent flaw—assists leading to three-pointers and passes leading to free-throw attempts don't get extra credit.
- Multiply points produced per shot by PIE, which is an estimate of a player's involvement in the relevant game events. You can read a full description here.
Remember, these rankings are objectively determined. Players aren't receiving bonuses for game-winning shots or anything of that sort, and only the numbers matter.
10. Derrick Rose
1 of 10
Team: Chicago Bulls
Position: PG
Age: 26
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 10.8 points, 14.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 3.6 steals, 7.2 turnovers
Closer Shooting Percentages: 0 FG%, 0 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 27.83
Does it matter that heading into Friday night's clash with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Derrick Rose hadn't yet hit a single shot from the field when it was time for the Chicago Bulls to close a contest? He'd change that in a big way with his banked-in buzzer-beater for the Game 3 win, but even before, he had dropped in all three of his free-throw attempts during the 10 relevant minutes, dominated on the glass and kept his teammates involved with a pair of dimes.
Knocking down buckets isn't the only way to close out a game, after all.
And regardless of the methods, it's worked for the Bulls. Rose has appeared in four games that featured Chicago trying to close things out in a tight situation, and he's helped the team to do so successfully in three of the four.
The only failure came in the Milwaukee Bucks' lone first-round win, when the game was tied at 90 apiece with 38 seconds left to play. And unfortunately, Rose didn't exactly help his case, as the loss can be tied to his poor efforts.
After Jerryd Bayless missed a layup, the former MVP turned the ball over on a bad pass and then watched as Bayless knocked down the game-winning buzzer-beater. That's especially notable because the hero of the night was Rose's assignment, who only worked his way free when the Chicago point guard overcommitted on the initial cut.
Honorable Mentions: Blake Griffin (15.2 Closer Rating), O.J. Mayo (7.9), Bradley Beal (5.2) and Paul Pierce (didn't qualify because his usage rate was too low but went 3-of-3 from beyond the arc against the Toronto Raptors and didn't miss anything he even looked at)
9. Joe Johnson
2 of 10
Team: Brooklyn Nets
Position: SG
Age: 33
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 22.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists
Closer Shooting Percentages: 33.3 FG%, 100 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 31.5
The Brooklyn Nets might not have advanced past the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, but it's tough to fault Joe Johnson's work when trying to protect one of his team's leads. The shooting guard played eight relevant minutes in the lone game that featured a narrow Brooklyn advantage with less than five minutes to play, and it was one of the two outings the Nets stole from the No. 1 seed.
How can he have played eight relevant minutes in only one game, given our restrictions?
Well, Game 4 went to overtime, the Nets were ahead or tied for most of the fourth quarter's second half, and the same was true in the extra period after they took the initial punch from Atlanta.
During those moments, Johnson made one shot from beyond the arc—a 23-footer on a feed from Alan Anderson that pushed the Brooklyn lead to four points with 4:43 to play in the fourth quarter—and missed his two attempts from inside the arc. However, he also knocked down a pair of shots from the charity stripe to ice the game after a Jeff Teague layup had cut the lead to a single possession with 13 seconds remaining in overtime.
8. Chris Paul
3 of 10
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Position: PG
Age: 30
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 28.8 points, 7.2 assists
Closer Shooting Percentages: 40 FG%, 0 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 36.48
Let's rewind back to the final 13 seconds of the Los Angeles Clippers' epic first-round battle with the defending champions.
The score was tied at 107, and Chris Paul was at the free-throw line, having just drawn a foul on Tim Duncan. More than the game was hanging in the balance, as the terrific point guard was surely aware of the ridiculous criticisms that have existed for so many years.
He's not clutch in the playoffs. He can't win the big game. He's always going to choke.
But the next moment helped change that narrative, as he calmly sunk both foul shots to give LAC the advantage. And then, after Duncan tied the game—and the series as a whole—with two freebies of his own, Paul basically cemented his own legacy.
Playing on a pulled hamstring that ultimately proved so problematic he would sit out the first two games of the second-round series with the Houston Rockets, Paul drove toward the hoop and made a ridiculous falling-away floater to eliminate the San Antonio Spurs and silence hordes of critics.
But that's not the only impressive part of Paul's resume as a closer this season. Even before he appeared in a single contest against the Rockets, he had played 10 relevant minutes against San Antonio and recorded a grand total of zero turnovers, despite his heavy involvement in the proceedings.
7. Marc Gasol
4 of 10
Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Position: C
Age: 30
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 36.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 6.0 turnovers
Closer Shooting Percentages: 33.3 FG%, 0 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 45
Marc Gasol has been asked to help protect three different narrow leads for the Memphis Grizzlies this postseason, and he's emerged victoriously from two of them. But you need only look at the lone defeat to see how valuable the Spanish big man has been in nerve-wracking situations.
The Portland Trail Blazers got their one win against Memphis with a 99-92 showing in Game 4 of the opening-round series. However, that score is a bit misleading, as Rip City was only ahead by two points when Gasol scored with nine seconds remaining. Had Damian Lillard missed either of his ensuing free throws, the Grizzlies would have had a final shot to tie the game.
But when the clock showed there were only five minutes remaining, Memphis was winning by two points. And with the exception of an 18-second stretch, it was up or tied with Portland until a C.J. McCollum triple with 1:20 remaining gave the Blazers a lead they would never relinquish.
During those final five minutes, Gasol scored six of his team's 10 points—including the late-game basket to cut into Portland's lead, which ultimately doesn't count for these calculations. He only missed a single attempt from the field and was perfect from the free-throw line.
Even in the loss, he still thrived as a closer.
6. Jeff Teague
5 of 10
Team: Atlanta Hawks
Position: PG
Age: 26
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 30.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 2.6 steals
Closer Shooting Percentages: 55.6 FG%, 50 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 49.2
Throughout the best regular season in franchise history, the Atlanta Hawks have had to turn a deaf ear to the notion that they might not boast a closer on the roster. As Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher explained back in late January, anonymous NBA personnel didn't believe that the eventual No. 1 seed had a go-to superstar for the playoffs:
"A rough survey of NBA personnel attending last week's NBA D-League Showcase in Santa Cruz, California, resulted in a split decision as to whether the Hawks, currently atop the Eastern Conference by a comfortable margin, can replicate their regular-season success in the playoffs. The skeptics believe Atlanta's lack of size and a go-to scoring superstar will hurt it when the pace slows down, rotations shorten and games are decided by who executes the best on last-minute possessions, when the opponent has had days to prepare for every tendency. That's when having a player who can create a shot all by himself, or draw enough attention to create a shot for a less wily teammate, becomes paramount.
"
Jeff Teague hasn't been able to convert on his myriad drives to the basket, and he's been unable to pull the Hawks out of the prolonged funks they've been experiencing during the playoffs—perhaps indicating that this team still might not have that go-to player when the going gets rough.
But give the Hawks a late lead, and he's going to protect it.
In 14 minutes as a closer—more than anyone not on the Washington Wizards or San Antonio Spurs—Teague has made five of his nine shots from the field, gone 1-of-2 from downtown, hit his only attempt from the charity stripe, grabbed two rebounds and dished out three assists.
Perhaps most impressively, he's done all that without recording even a single turnover.
5. Jimmy Butler
6 of 10
Team: Chicago Bulls
Position: SG
Age: 25
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 36.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.6 steals, 3.6 turnovers
Closer Shooting Percentages: 66.7 FG%, 50 3P%, 33.3 FT%
Closer Rating: 55.2
"I don't worry about what people say," Jimmy Butler told reporters when asked if he'd earned superstar status after winning Most Improved Player, via the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson. "I control what I can. I guess I've gained a lot of respect around the league. I'm not going to knock that. But I think superstar is a push."
It's not a push. Butler has indeed arrived as a superstar.
He proved it during his stellar regular season. He has continued to cement that reputation by thriving during the first 43 minutes of playoff games, standing out as one of the best players on any team going to work this postseason. And most importantly for our purposes, he's done the same thing when closing out games.
The Chicago Bulls were 3-1 in close-out situations heading into Friday night's Game 3 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and much of the credit has to go to this 25-year-old. With the exception of his 1-of-3 performance at the line, he's been virtually unable to miss, and he's still contributed in other areas.
The only major flaw came in Game 3 of Chicago's first-round affair with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Butler pulled up for an attempted overtime game-winner from 26 feet with 20 seconds left on the clock, and he drew iron. But it wouldn't matter much, as he scored the first two points of double overtime, giving the Windy City residents a lead they wouldn't relinquish.
4. John Wall
7 of 10
Team: Washington Wizards
Position: PG
Age: 24
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 18.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 18.0 assists, 2.3 blocks
Closer Shooting Percentages: 33.3 FG%, 0 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 66.13
How do you thrive as a closer despite struggling with your shot and posting a 3-of-9 line from the field?
Well, recording eight assists and no turnovers in 16 relevant minutes is a nice way to do so.
John Wall has been a passing machine in these playoffs, though his hand/wrist injury is going to make it awfully hard to rack up more dimes going forward. From the opening tip forward, he's done a fantastic job of making sure his teammates stay involved with feeds that hit them right between the numbers, and that's remained true when the Washington Wizards are trying to protect a late lead.
Of any player featured in this countdown, Wall is the best example of how to remain an elite closer without doing what's typically thought of as closing. The player who makes the important shot tends to be the one who gets the credit, but especially on the Wizards, that man likely wouldn't have the ball without Wall's excellent decision-making skills in pressure-packed situations.
A great feed won't show up on highlight reels. It typically doesn't get discussed at the water coolers the next day.
But it's vitally important all the same.
3. Stephen Curry
8 of 10
Team: Golden State Warriors
Position: PG
Age: 27
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 48.0 points, 12.0 assists
Closer Shooting Percentages: 25 FG%, 50 3P%, 83.3 FT%
Closer Rating: 94.8
Amazingly, Stephen Curry thrives in this metric even though his biggest shot of the postseason—the game-tying triple from the corner with Anthony Davis flying at him—doesn't count. After all, the Golden State Warriors were trailing the New Orleans Pelicans by three points at the time, so he wasn't exactly functioning as a closer.
Then again, maybe it's not so amazing. Curry is now the NBA's newest MVP, and he's made a habit out of ripping shots through the twine whenever the Dubs need a big bucket.
During his six relevant minutes, the baby-faced assassin took four shots. While he hit only a single one, it was a 26-foot bomb to kick off overtime in Game 3 against the Pelicans, giving him back-to-back triples in the contest. And when NOLA had pulled within a single point with less than 20 seconds to play, he coolly drilled both free throws. And when the lead again shrunk to a single possession, he repeated the story at the line, icing the game with three seconds left.
Curry might not have made many shots from the field during closing situations. But he found himself at the stripe quite often and dished out a pair of assists with nary a cough-up.
Plus, the Warriors are 3-0 in games that feature no more than a five-point lead with less than five minutes remaining. It's hard to poke holes in that.
2. Damian Lillard
9 of 10
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Position: PG
Age: 24
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 45.0 points, 9.0 assists
Closer Shooting Percentages: 0 FG%, 0 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 112
It might seem weird that the point guard of a team eliminated decisively in the first round of the playoffs would check in as the No. 2 postseason closer. But the Portland Trail Blazers' problem in their series with the Memphis Grizzlies wasn't holding onto a late lead; it was getting one in the first place.
Only once did Rip City hold an advantage in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter, and it came during their lone victory of the series—Game 4.
Lillard did miss both of his three-point attempts down the stretch, clanking a 25-footer with 3:49 left that would have broken an 82-82 tie and misfiring on a shot from one foot further when his team held a three-point advantage with 30 seconds remaining. Unfortunately, his one made attempt from downtown came while the Blazers were in a two-point hole, so it didn't technically see him do any closing. And thus, it doesn't count here.
But what does count is his tremendous work at the free-throw line. After making that triple and drawing a foul on Tony Allen, he completed the four-point play. That charity shot does count, as Portland was winning when he walked to the stripe.
On top of that, he made four more free-throw attempts to ice the game, and he also claimed the assist on a tie-breaking three from C.J. McCollum that gave Portland the advantage it would never lose its grip on.
1. James Harden
10 of 10
Team: Houston Rockets
Position: SG
Age: 25
Per-36-Minute Closer Stats: 108.0 points
Closer Shooting Percentages: 80 FG%, 100 3P%, 100 FT%
Closer Rating: 160.1
James Harden has served as a closer in three games this postseason, and the Houston Rockets have won each of them.
First, let's look at Game 3 against the Dallas Mavericks in the opening round. With 1:13 remaining in the final quarter, Dirk Nowitzki cut the Mavs' deficit to just a single point, and that's when Harden decided to take over.
After getting into the paint and scoring at the basket on the very next possession, he completed the three-point play at the stripe. Then, after Nowitzki made three free throws to negate the bearded 2-guard's efforts (admittedly on a foul by the Houston 2-guard), Harden responded with an 18-footer for the points that would eventually prove decisive.
Game 5 was much less dramatic.
After Dallas came within five points while just 3:01 remained on the clock in the final period, Harden came out of a timeout, created his own shot and drilled a triple. The Mavericks, who were officially eliminated from championship contention a few minutes later, would never again cut the gap to five points or fewer.
Later, we had Game 2 against the Los Angeles Clippers in the next round, and Harden calmly hit a pair of freebies to push the Houston lead from four points to six with 13 seconds remaining, eliminating the gains LAC had made on a DeAndre Jordan finish just seconds earlier.
Add it all up, and Harden has played just four relevant minutes, but he's gone 4-of-5 from the field, 1-of-1 from downtown and 3-of-3 at the stripe, good for a jaw-dropping 108 points per 36 minutes. Though a larger sample might put a damper on the work he's done as a closer, he's been simply immaculate thus far.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from NBA.com's statistical databases and are current heading into May 8. This intro was partially lifted from a 2014 article in which I debuted Clutch Rating, on which Closer Rating is based.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
