Ranking the Best NBA Free Agents Available This Summer
Everyone knows about Kevin Durant and the free-agent class of 2016. But a handful of top-tier players are expected to hit the market when free agency begins in July, and the stage is set for an exciting summer. In the following slides, I’ve ranked the 10 most prominent players available in 2015 and predicted where they’ll go.
Two quick points: First, the players are ranked in ascending order based on ability. The first guy on the list (No. 10) will have less of an impact, wherever he goes, than No. 1.
Second, the list includes all unrestricted free agents, even those who are likely to re-sign with their current teams. With respect to restricted players, however, I limited myself only to players who are likely to depart. That’s why guys like Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James are excluded.
No. 10: Rajon Rondo
1 of 10
When Rajon Rondo left Boston for Dallas in December, the Mavericks thought they were getting a crucial boost. Defensive concerns aside, the ornery point guard has been devastating during the playoffs, where he's averaged 14.5 points, 9.2 assists, six rebounds and two steals per game.
But it's safe to say the move didn't pan out: Rondo appeared in just two postseason games, averaged a paltry nine points and three assists and reportedly didn't earn a playoff share, according to Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News (h/t CBS Sports' Elliot Smith).
Two things are clear. One, he's going to be on the market. And two, he's not getting the max deal he wanted (and deserved) two years ago. At this point, Rondo has been linked to the Knicks and Lakers, two high-profile markets that might jolt Rondo into his old form, according to Pro Basketball Talk (h/t sportsworldreport.com).
The question, however, is how much the obstinate 29-year-old is worth. When healthy, he's among the best point guards in the league; when he doesn't care, Rondo hurts his team.
Prediction: Signs with Lakers.
No. 9: Khris Middleton
2 of 10
The Bucks surprised a lot of people this year. Under first-year head coach Jason Kidd, Milwaukee earned the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and pushed the No. 3 seed Chicago Bulls to a six-game series. The team has an exciting core of young players, highlighted by 20-year-old Giannis (the Greek Freak) and 2014 No. 2 overall pick Jabari Parker.
In the Bucks' first-round playoff series with Chicago, Middleton averaged 15.8 points and almost four rebounds per game. He's 23 years old, he's a lifetime 45 percent shooter from the floor (41 percent from three-point range) and is defensively well-regarded. Most importantly, his real plus-minus ranks among the league's best by ESPN.com—a stat catching the eye of more and more teams.
According to Sean Deveney at Sporting News, there's a good chance Middleton receives an offer in the Chandler Parsons range (around $15 million per year). On one hand, with the NBA salary cap set to rise, the Bucks could feasibly pay up. That's something Middleton is reportedly open to, according to the Journal Sentinel's Matt Velazquez.
On the other hand, the Bucks will face stiff competition for Antetokounmpo and Parker down the road, and they still have draft picks coming.
No. 8: Arron Afflalo
3 of 10
Portland traded for Afflalo in February, hoping to add some defensive depth and three-point shooting to their playoff-bound squad. But Wes Matthews got hurt, and Afflalo battled a shoulder injury and played inefficiently when placed in the starting lineup. The Blazers—once with their eyes on a title—put up an anemic fight en route to a 4-1 series loss in the first round of the playoffs.
Given his struggled in Portland and the surprising play of Blazers backup shooting guard C.J. McCollum, it was unsurprising to learn that Afflalo will test free agency, as ESPN.com's Marc Stein reported on Wednesday. Frankly, however, suitors haven't emerged. The Lakers, of course, are mentioned in connection with every free agent available, as are the Knicks.
However, Joe Freeman of The Oregonian (h/t thescore.com) reports that Afflalo could opt in, particularly as Portland figures out its plan with Matthews.
Prediction: Stays in Portland.
No. 7: Tyson Chandler
4 of 10
There's not a ton to say here. Chandler is just a good center. He averaged 10.3 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game (his third season averaging a double-double). He's a defensive stopper, a top-tier rim protector wherever he's played. And he's an unrestricted free agent on July 1.
The Mavs face a tough choice. With Rondo's impending departure, Dallas has needs at guard. Chandler had a good year, but he's 32. He'll command a fairly high salary in a year with several notable big men on the market. But on the other hand, he's a double-double machine, he's a clubhouse leader and he's healthy.
Plus, Kevin Sherrington of the Dallas Morning News believes that he may actually be a reason for other top free agents to sign with Dallas, should that scenario arise.
Prediction: Stays in Dallas.
No. 6: Greg Monroe
5 of 10
Greg Monroe is 24 years old. He just averaged 15.9 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. In the past four seasons, Monroe has never averaged fewer than 15 points and nine rebounds. He is consistent. He is healthy, with a clean injury history. And he's being pursued by just about everyone.
His current team, the Pistons, want him back. (Duh). Along with Rondo and Kevin Love, Monroe is willing to meet with the Lakers, Basketball Insiders reports. (Duh again).
According to CSNNE.com's A. Sherrod Blakely (h/t DetroitBadBoys.com), the Celtics want him. And the Knicks are in open pursuit, per Frank Isola of the New York Daily News. Monroe should receive a max contract, and he'll have plenty of suitors to choose from.
Prediction: Signs with New York Knicks.
No. 5: Brook Lopez
6 of 10
As I've written before, I'm not sure why Brook Lopez isn't garnering more attention. Over the past three seasons, Lopez has posted a higher PER than Kawhi Leonard, Marc Gasol, John Wall and Kyrie Irving according to Basketball-Reference. He is a double-double machine. He is arguably the most offensively talented center in the league. He's 27, his injury issues appear behind him and his current team—the Brooklyn Nets—are looking less and less en route to a title.
Lopez becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2016, but Grantland's Zach Lowe suggests he'll opt out and test the market this summer. The New York Post's Fred Kerber reports (h/t NetsDaily.com) that other NBA executives believe the Nets should re-sign him.
If Lopez is open to returning, he'll either A) opt out and sign a new, five-year deal with Brooklyn (other teams can only offer him four), or B) opt in, play one more year with the Nets and enter free agency when the cap jumps in 2016. Alternatively, he'll have no shortage of would-be landing spots if he decides to leave.
Charlotte, Denver and Oklahoma City were all reportedly interested in trading for Lopez earlier this season, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. The Celtics, Trailblazers and Spurs, meanwhile, could all pay Lopez's fee and would represent excellent fits.
Prediction: Signs with Boston Celtics.
No. 4: Kevin Love
7 of 10
Love's story is pretty familiar. He's one of (if not) the best shooting big men in the game. He rebounds. He knocks down threes. He stretches the floor. He throws the most ridiculous outlet passes of anyone on the planet. His shoulder was just dislocated, and he's out for the playoffs.
And in an interview with SLAM Magazine (h/t Pro Basketball Talk), Alonzo Mourning claimed that Love's not happy playing third fiddle in Cleveland, behind LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.
Love has a player option for 2016. Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, said on The Dan Patrick Show that the Cavaliers have a "legitimate fear" of Love bolting this summer. B/R's Kevin Ding links Love to the Lakers, and Cleveland's re-recruitment pitch has already (and misguidedly) begun.
It would be a quintessentially Cleveland disaster if Love leaves town, but signs are pointing in that direction.
Prediction: Signs with Los Angeles Lakers.
No. 3: DeAndre Jordan
8 of 10
Here are some stats from DeAndre Jordan's 2014-15 season, per Basketball-Reference.com:
- 11.5 points and 15.0 rebounds per game
- 71.0 field-goal percentage
- 13 games with 20-plus rebounds
- four games with 20 points and 20 rebounds
- 21.0 PER, 32.4 percent defensive rebound rate
There is nobody quite like Jordan on the market. Hack-a-DeAndre free-throw woes aside, Jordan is an absolute monster on the boards and is absolutely essential to the Clippers' success (as demonstrated in their Game 2 loss to Houston on Wednesday).
And while the Clippers will undoubtedly work to re-sign him, two teams have emerged as likely destinations: San Antonio and as ESPN.com's Tim McMahon (h/t Pro Basketball Talk) reports, Dallas.
Prediction: Signs with Dallas Mavericks.
No. 2: LaMarcus Aldridge
9 of 10
Aldridge is 29, and he's been remarkably consistent over the past three years. Since 2012, he's averaged at least 21 points and nine rebounds per game and playing at least 69 games. But what really sets Aldridge apart is his combination of efficiency and mid-range shooting. He's posted five straight PERs above 20 and has never shot less than 46 percent from the floor, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
As NBA.com's John Schuhmann noted in February, Aldridge regularly takes the most mid-range jumpers of any player at his position. And while NBA teams are shying away from the statistically inefficient shooting zone between the paint and three-point line, Aldridge is too efficient a shooter for teams to ignore him—which creates crucial space for his teammates.
A return to Portland is entirely possible, but the Blazers' first-round playoff loss was discouraging, and Aldridge will be 30 years old soon. As ESPN.com's Marc Stein explained, both the Mavericks and Spurs are interested in Aldridge, and he appears interested in them. Alternatively, Stein also reports that Aldridge is considering Cleveland, should Kevin Love depart.
(Bold) Prediction: Signs with San Antonio.
No. 1: Marc Gasol
10 of 10
With the exception of LeBron James, Gasol is widely considered the best available free agent. He possesses a rare blend of efficient scoring, staunch defense and intuitive passing.
He's consistent—Gasol has averaged at least 14 points, seven rebounds and three assists per game for the past four seasons—and a career 50 percent shooter from the floor. While not a three-point threat, he's a master of floor spacing and an absurdly prescient passer.
The Knicks had been mentioned frequently as a Gasol suitor, but that appears less and less likely, according to Sheridan Hoops. As Sporting News' Sean Deveney reports, via Pro Basketball Talk (h/t sportsworldreport.com), the Celtics have been in the mix for Gasol for months; given Boston's diminished chances in the Kevin Love sweepstakes, they're likely to make a pitch.
The Lakers are eyeing everybody on the market. And the Spurs are reportedly considering Gasol (along with Aldridge) as potential successors to Tim Duncan, according to Deveney.
But Memphis remains the top candidate. While the Grizzlies' success this postseason will surely play a role, Memphis has a dominant core in Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley. The Grizzlies were a top-six team this year by record, and unless they implode, they seem poised to advance far in the postseason. Plus, Memphis can offer one more year than any other team.
Prediction: Stays in Memphis.
