SEC Football: Realistic Expectations for Every Team in 2015
Pads have been sent back to the equipment rooms, practice jerseys have been washed and depth charts have started to sort themselves out.
Spring practice is over around the country, which means that the eternal optimism for every fanbase is at an all-time high. Unfortunately, though, all of your teams can't go undefeated in 2015.
We've already handed out our post-spring power rankings for the SEC, but let's get a little more specific. Our realistic expectations for every SEC team in 2015, based on talent, coaching and schedule, are in this slideshow.
Alabama: College Football Playoff
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Anything short of a berth in the second annual College Football Playoff would be a disappointment for the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Head coach Nick Saban has reeled off seven straight double-digit-win seasons in Tuscaloosa, won three national titles, won three SEC titles and earned a berth in the first installment of the four-team event following last season.
With nine new starters on offense, is that realistic?
Sure.
Running back Derrick Henry, who led the Crimson Tide last year with 990 yards and 11 touchdowns, is technically one of those new starters, as are experienced tight end O.J. Howard and ultra-versatile running back Kenyan Drake—both of whom have played significant snaps.
Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has to break in a new starting quarterback, but after he set records with Blake Sims—who was once a running back at Alabama—in 2014, hasn't Kiffin earned the benefit of the doubt?
The front seven is nasty, and Saban brought in Mel Tucker to fix what has been an underachieving secondary.
It's playoff or bust for Alabama. Or, as it has become known in Tuscaloosa, "just another season."
Arkansas: 8 or More Wins
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Arkansas is essentially "the new kid in school."
The Razorbacks appeared out of nowhere late last year and seem nice, but you're not quite sure what to make of them yet.
With four starting offensive linemen, stud running backs Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, leading receiver Keon Hatcher and efficient quarterback Brandon Allen all returning, there's plenty of experience for new offensive coordinator Dan Enos to work with.
The question is on defense, where defensive coordinator Robb Smith must replace the production and impact of tackle Darius Philon, end Trey Flowers and linebacker Martrell Spaight—all of whom played big roles in Arkansas' November surge.
The Hogs should expect to be competitive in virtually every game and take a small step forward to eight regular-season wins. If the ball bounces their way, a jump to nine or 10 wins shouldn't seem crazy, either.
Auburn: College Football Playoff
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Much like intrastate rival Alabama, Auburn should absolutely have the College Football Playoff in its sights.
The Tigers return an experienced linebacker corps, an All-SEC-caliber cornerback in Jonathan Jones and stud defensive end Carl Lawson, and they will get a boost from the presence of new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp.
So far, so good for the new-look Tigers defense.
"[Muschamp] had to evaluate our guys," head coach Gus Malzahn said in Atlanta earlier this month. "The second part of spring, they started putting packages in and putting guys in different situations to see who can put some pressure on the quarterback."
The Tigers offensive line is solid, D'haquille Williams leads a veteran wide receiving corps, Malzahn always finds a way to move the football on the ground (12 1,000-yard rushers in nine seasons as a college head or assistant coach) and Jeremy Johnson has all the makings of becoming a superstar quarterback.
What's more, Auburn gets its rivals Georgia and Alabama at home as well as potential division-title contender Ole Miss.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Florida: Pool of 6 Bowl and an Offensive Identity
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The SEC revamped its bowl-selection process last year and currently places teams in the Outback, Liberty, Belk, Texas, Music City and TaxSlayer Bowls after the College Football Playoff's "New Year's Six" and the Citrus Bowl select their participants.
Florida should be in one of those bowls following the 2015 season, which would represent a slight step forward for the Gators in head coach Jim McElwain's first season at Florida.
Offensive line issues are going to hinder the Gators in Year 1, but the defense is talented enough to keep them in games. With McElwain at the helm, you'd think that there would at least be some kind of offensive identity—something that has been absent over the last two seasons.
The issues up front will prevent McElwain from orchestrating a "Malzahnian" turnaround in his first year, but he will stabilize the program quite a bit—which is his first and most important job.
Georgia: Double-Digit Wins
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It seems like it's "Georgia's year" every May, and this year is no different.
Barring an unforeseen massive roster shake-up, the Bulldogs will likely be picked to win the SEC East at SEC media days this July based on the presence of running back Nick Chubb, a solid offensive line and the best outside linebackers in the country.
Despite that, holes along the defensive line, the absence of their top two receivers and a new quarterback leave plenty for Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt to work on this offseason.
Georgia has become the king of the inexplicable loss, and because of that, it's hard to say that it's "division title or bust" in Athens. It should, however, contend for the division title and shoot for the 10-win plateau (including bowl game) in 2015.
Kentucky: Contend for a Bowl
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Kentucky was on the verge of bowl eligibility last season when it surged to a 5-1 record, with the only loss coming in triple overtime on the road against Florida in a somewhat controversial ending that included Florida scoring a tying touchdown after it appeared that the play clock had expired.
The Wildcats dropped six straight to close the season, leaving a sour taste in the mouth of head coach Mark Stoops following his second season in Lexington.
It's realistic that the program could break through that glass ceiling and make a bowl in 2015.
The dynamic duo of Stanley "Boom" Williams and Jojo Kemp returns at running back, and incumbent Patrick Towles is back but could be beaten out by former hotshot recruit Drew Barker at quarterback.
Aside from the rivalry with Louisville (which will be winnable), the nonconference schedule is a breeze, and Vandy should be an easy win.
The Wildcats should be dancing around bowl eligibility once again and, with an upset, could break through that glass ceiling.
LSU: More Offensive Diversity
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Aside from the quarterback, every other aspect of the LSU offense should be set.
Running back Leonard Fournette is a legitimate Heisman candidate, the offensive line is stable, Travin Dural is an established deep threat and there are plenty of weapons around Dural, like Malachi Dupre, to take pressure off the star junior receiver.
It all comes back to the quarterback, though.
You'd think that offensive coordinator Cam Cameron—who's in a contract year—would mix things up after Anthony Jennings completed just 48.9 percent of his passes a year ago and kept his job over then-freshman Brandon Harris.
A little offensive diversity can go a long way.
If Jennings or Harris can consistently stretch the field, LSU will return to SEC West contention. If neither one does, 7-5 could happen. A slight improvement, which would result in the eight- or nine-win range, should be the realistic expectation and a happy medium.
Mississippi State: Pool of 6 Bowl
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Mississippi State became the darling of college football last season, when it attained the first No. 1 ranking in program history, finished with its third-ever 10-win season and made the Orange Bowl for the first time since 1941.
That "New Year's Six" bowl was impressive, but it should not be the expectation this year, despite the return of Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott at quarterback.
Mississippi State lost five of seven starters off its defensive front seven and three starters along the offensive line, both of which were key cogs to the Bulldogs' 2014 success. While head coach Dan Mullen is a master at coaching players up and there are still good players to work with, the small margin for error and tight nature of the SEC West will force the Bulldogs to take a step back in 2015.
Still, a "Pool of Six" bowl (Outback, Belk, Liberty, Texas, Music City, TaxSlayer) should be the realistic expectation and is attainable in Starkville.
Missouri: SEC East Contention
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Missouri has won back-to-back SEC East titles, which has earned it the benefit of the doubt in the division. Those two teams, though, were quite different.
The 2013 team was loaded with a monster defensive line that was incredibly deep, a wide receiving corps that looked more like a group of NBA power forwards, a deep and talented running back position and a veteran quarterback in James Franklin. It was a legitimate national championship contender.
Last year's team, while successful, dealt with quarterback Maty Mauk's inconsistency all year long and was more of a product of a down SEC East than anything else.
Even still, head coach Gary Pinkel has established himself as one of the nation's best coaches by adapting his style to his personnel every single year. Because of that, Missouri should expect to be in the SEC East title hunt in November yet again.
Ole Miss: SEC West Contention
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Ole Miss had been the talk of the recruiting trail for the last two seasons, and in 2014, that recruiting success translated into success on the field.
The Rebels upset top-ranked Alabama in October and danced around the College Football Playoff discussion into November, before injuries took their toll and sent them into a late-season fade.
With wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil back, Ole Miss should be in the thick of the SEC West title race in November and make a "New Year's Six" bowl for the second straight season.
The defense is salty, the wide receiving corps is deep and talented and head coach Hugh Freeze looked like he had solved his major issue during the spring game. A between-the-tackles running game has been the football equivalent of a unicorn over the last two seasons in Oxford, but Jordan Wilkins, Eugene Brazley and Akeem Judd all looked capable of providing that last month.
If it works, it will take a ton of pressure off the eventual winner of the three-headed quarterback battle between Chad Kelly, Ryan Buchanan and DeVante Kincade.
South Carolina: Any Bowl Game
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South Carolina struggled to a 7-6 record last year due, in large part, to struggles along the defensive line and a very young secondary.
Will junior college transfer Marquavius Lewis' presence usher in a 180-degree turnaround in the trenches? That's a lot to ask, and it won't make up for the other holes that developed on the roster during the offseason.
South Carolina's most experienced quarterback—sophomore Connor Mitch—has six career passing attempts, running back Mike Davis is gone and wide receiver Pharoh Cooper is really the only established playmaker on the roster.
The Gamecocks want to rekindle the glory days of 2011 to 2013, but that schedule is a monster that includes North Carolina at a neutral site, road trips to Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M and Tennessee, an across-division home game against LSU and the traditional season finale against Clemson.
Yikes.
Tennessee: SEC East Contention
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It's time to welcome Tennessee back to relevance.
The Vols finished last season 7-6 and made their first bowl game since 2010, and for the most part, all pieces of that puzzle are back.
The defense was downright salty on third down last year (34.21 percent) and returns an experienced secondary led by All-American candidate Cam Sutton and seven of the eight members of the two-deep along the defensive line. What's more, those players in the trenches were joined by stud tackle Shy Tuttle this January, and they will be joined by freshman Kahlil McKenzie this summer.
Offensively, four starters return on the offensive line, running back Jalen Hurd was joined by junior college transfer running back Alvin Kamara in January, the wide receiving corps is loaded and quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been getting first-team snaps in a camplike setting for the first time in his career this offseason.
The Vols are the most stable program in the division at this point, and anything less than a major push for Atlanta should be considered a major disappointment.
Texas A&M: November Relevance
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Aside from playing spoiler, Texas A&M hasn't been much of a factor in the SEC West race in November over the last two seasons.
That should change in 2015, now that head coach Kevin Sumlin has fixed the glitch and brought in John Chavis to run his defense after three ill-fated seasons under Mark Snyder. There's a solid foundation with defensive end Myles Garrett, linebacker Otaro Alaka and safety Armani Watts, and Chavis should be able to develop a little defensive consistency.
A little bit would go a long way, because the offense is loaded with one of the best wide receiving corps in the country, a solid one-two punch at running back with Tra Carson and James White and starting quarterback Kyle Allen taking first-team snaps at quarterback all offseason.
A division title is a bit premature, but Texas A&M should be in that discussion when the leaves change colors.
Vanderbilt: A Conference Win
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I'm sure second-year Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason and Commodores fans want to get back to a bowl game, but the program needs to take baby steps first.
The SEC East is getting stronger, and that, coupled with Mason hitting the reset button with coaching changes in both coordinator spots, makes it tough for Vanderbilt to dig out of the cellar.
Andy Ludwig is an upgrade at offensive coordinator, but he has to deal with a unique situation at quarterback. It appeared that Patton Robinette had the starting job in his sights, but he retired from football after spring practice and sent the staff back to the drawing board.
Ralph Webb is a solid running back and defensive end Caleb Azubike is a freak, but it's a stretch to put Vandy in the bowl picture. A lone SEC win would signify a small step forward for the program, which is about as good as it's going to get in 2015.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted, and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports' composite rankings.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on Sirius 93, XM 208.
Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
