Dark-Horse College Football Playoff Contenders for 2015 Season
We have a pretty good idea who the favorites and top contenders are for this season's College Football Playoff. The long offseason has provided plenty of opportunity to discuss the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Auburn Tigers, the Baylor Bears, the Florida State Seminoles, the Georgia Bulldogs, the Michigan State Spartans, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Oregon Ducks, the TCU Horned Frogs and the USC Trojans.
But if last year is any indication, we have to expand our horizons and think outside the box—er, top 10—to find other programs that could have a shot to fight for a playoff spot.
That's where we'll find the dark horses.
Think about it: When the 2014 season began, the preseason Associated Press poll had the four eventual semifinalists in the top five. But nowhere could be found many of the teams that were in the running for a playoff bid down the stretch—teams like the Arizona Wildcats, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, the Mississippi State Bulldogs or TCU. None of those schools were ranked at the outset, yet each ended up earning invites to CFP-affiliated bowl games and all had a shot to make the playoffs.
How did this happen? And how come we didn't see it coming? Who knows if we'll have a similar scenario this season, but it's worth exploring.
That's why we've identified a handful of schools that, while they may be ranked to begin the year, aren't currently thought of in the top tier of teams vying for the playoffs. All are capable of getting there, though, assuming they are able to put everything together, and things go their way.
Arizona State Sun Devils
1 of 7
2014 record: 10-3
Returning starters: 15
Favorable conditions
A versatile playmaker in D.J. Foster
Arizona State is so deep at running back that coach Todd Graham didn't bat an eye at converting his 1,000-yard rusher from last season into a slot receiver. This move should prove beneficial in many ways, as it means more opportunities for sophomores Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard to run the ball and enable the 5'11", 205-pound senior to develop into the kind of player he projects to be at the NFL level.
It also can help shore up ASU's one weakness on offense: a thin receiving corps. No. 1 wideout Jaelen Strong turned pro, while Cameron Smith was shut down for the year to undergo knee surgery.
Foster had 1,081 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in 2014 but also was second on the team with 62 receptions for 688 yards and three scores.
A favorable schedule
The Sun Devils couldn't have asked for a better layout for their schedule this year, as they have a slate that's filled with plenty of resume-building games—most of them at home.
They open against the Texas A&M Aggies in Houston, the kind of game that could springboard them into the playoff talk early on with a win. Once Pac-12 play stars, ASU gets USC, Oregon and rival Arizona at Sun Devil Stadium, while its toughest road games will be against the UCLA Bruins and Utah Utes.
Key to a playoff run
The passing game
Mike Bercovici looked good in a relief role last season, starting three games for the injured Taylor Kelly and posting two wins while throwing for 998 yards in his first two outings. Now given the job on a full-time basis, the senior has the potential to be a breakout star whose performance will make or break ASU's season.
Arkansas Razorbacks
2 of 7
2014 record: 7-6
Returning starters: 15
Favorable conditions
A no-frills, no-fear offense
The Arkansas Razorbacks offense is, simply put, all Hog. It's distinct and unashamed, a throwback to old-school football where you want big hosses up front opening holes for hard-running ball-carriers. And while that might not seem sexy, it proved successful last year.
Arkansas averaged 218 rushing yards per game, the product of an offensive line that averaged 328 pounds and made some NFL lines look tiny. It had a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Jonathan Williams (1,190 yards) and Alex Collins (1,100 yards), both of whom scored 12 touchdowns and will return. So will four-fifths of that line, which has slimmed down to 316.3 pounds per blocker.
An equally strong defense
Because the Razorbacks offense isn't the kind that's built to make massive comebacks and score points in bunches, it needs a defense that keeps the game close. We saw that last year, as they ranked 10th in yards allowed and tied for ninth in scoring at 19.2 points per game.
In Arkansas' final five games of 2014, it allowed 45 points and posted back-to-back shutouts against ranked opponents LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels. It then capped the season with a 31-7 win over the Texas Longhorns in the Texas Bowl, when it yielded a mere 59 yards (including only two on the ground).
The Hogs lost some major players on defense in SEC tackle leader Martrell Spaight, end Trey Flowers and tackle Darius Philon, but returners like massive nose guard Bijhon Jackson and fiery linebacker Brooks Ellis should pace another stout defense.
Key to a playoff run
Winning on the road
Arkansas ended a lengthy SEC losing streak last year with those November wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but it still has to figure out how to win on the road. Including last year's clash with Texas A&M played in Arlington, Texas, the Razorbacks are 1-11 in their last 12 on the road. The only win came last season in a nonconference game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Arkansas' 2015 road slate features trips to Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and the Tennessee Volunteers as well as the matchup with A&M in Arlington. Going at least 3-2 against that group and running the table at home could be enough to warrant a playoff bid.
Boise State Broncos
3 of 7
2014 record: 12-2
Returning starters: 16
Favorable conditions
Big game street cred
Few programs can claim the level of success that Boise has in the BCS/playoff era. Three trips to the Fiesta Bowl have all resulted in wins, including last year's 38-30 triumph over Arizona. Combine that with more 12-win seasons this century (eight) than any other team in FBS, and it's time to stop thinking of the Broncos as a mid-major and instead consider them a legitimate power.
A grass roots following
Much like for the Gonzaga Eagles or the Wichita State Shockers in college basketball, being able to consistently beat big-name teams and make deep postseason runs leads to a huge uptick in fan support. That also could translate into more consideration from the playoff selection committee, which has already made the bold move to guarantee a spot in a so-called "New Year's Six" game to a Group of Five team. In its newest incarnation, the committee might want to become even more progressive and give the little guy a shot at knocking off the big boys in a tournament.
Key to a playoff run
No losses for the Broncos (and plenty for others)
Because it's stuck in the Mountain West, Boise State has no margin for error. That means not only beating nonconference teams the Washington Huskies, the BYU Cougars and the Virginia Cavaliers (the last two on the road) but also dominating the league slate that includes back-to-back road games against the Colorado State Rams and the Utah State Aggies that each won 10 games a year ago.
But it will take more than a 13-0 record to get beyond just another Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl invite. Boise has to also hope there are no more than three teams from power conferences with one or fewer losses, and even then, it could be hard to beat out a two-loss team from the Pac-12 or SEC.
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Clemson Tigers
4 of 7
2014 record: 10-3
Returning starters: 11
Favorable conditions
A longstanding rival looks vulnerable
The Clemson Tigers have won at least 10 games in each of the past four seasons, but that's landed the Tigers only two trips to the Orange Bowl and one spot in the ACC title game. That's because Florida State has been on the same side of the conference all that time, and the Seminoles have clearly been the class of the league.
But times, they are a-changing. FSU just saw 11 players get drafted, including quarterback Jameis Winston, top receiver Rashad Greene, three offensive linemen and several key defensive players. It's not going to have a rebuilding year, not with the talent that Jimbo Fisher has recruited, but it also isn't going to be heads and shoulders above everyone else in the ACC.
That makes this the year for Clemson to jump up and move past the Seminoles. They get FSU at home, and in early November rather than near the start of the conference schedule. While that means both teams will be more settled into their lineups, it also gives Clemson more time to study how to beat a team it's lost three straight against.
A superstar in the making
The thought of what Deshaun Watson can do in a full season, without health issues, is a dream that Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and everyone who follows the Tigers has probably had on more than one occasion this offseason. They've probably also had nightmares involving the promising quarterback getting hurt again.
Watson was phenomenal as a true freshman in 2014 but couldn't stay on the field. He missed all or parts of seven games because of various injuries, including a torn ACL that knocked him out of bowl season and has kept him out of action all spring.
He's on track to be at 100 percent for this season, but if he shows any tentativeness or fear of getting injured again, that will likely affect his performance.
"Watson has no concerns about his durability and doesn't believe fans should either," according to the Associated Press (via OrangeAndWhite.com). "He said, once cleared to fully practice, he won't waste time worrying about further injuries and instead will concentrate on winning."
Key to a playoff run
Reloading on defense
Beyond keeping Watson available to run an offense full of young talent, Clemson must make sure it can replace the major stars on defense who graduated from last season's unit that led FBS at 260.8 yards allowed per game.
Defensive end Vic Beasley was one of six seniors who saw significant time on the defensive line, and also gone are leading tackler Stephone Anthony from the linebacker corps and veteran cornerback Garry Peters.
Defensive coordinator Brent Venables has some strong replacements ready to step in, while rising senior Shaq Lawson should anchor the line, and cornerback Mackensie Alexander could play his way into All-American consideration.
Oklahoma Sooners
5 of 7
2014 record: 8-5
Returning starters: 13
Favorable conditions
A return to its roots
Oklahoma used to be one of the most wide-open passing teams in the country, regularly averaging more than 300 yards per game through the air, and that had the Sooners annually in contention for a national title. But the past two seasons saw a huge dip in passing production, and not surprisingly, those years have been disappointing from a win/loss standpoint.
Coach Bob Stoops overhauled his coaching staff this winter, and in bringing Lincoln Riley over from East Carolina to be offensive coordinator, he's committed to returning to an Air Raid attack that fits with what the Sooners have run before. Riley has a handful of quarterback options to go with, but the one who seems best-suited for his plan is Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield, who threw for 2,300-plus yards in eight games for the Red Raiders in 2013.
Riley also plans to "play with eight receivers—at bare minimum—in a game," per Eric Bailey of the Tulsa World. That falls in line with the Air Raid offenses being run by the California Golden Bears, the East Carolina Pirates, Texas Tech and the Washington State Cougars but with one very big difference: Oklahoma's talent is far better.
A record-setting running back
The FBS single-game rushing record stood for 15 years before getting broken twice last season. Yet, while the Wisconsin Badgers' Melvin Gordon got plenty of attention for surpassing the mark, the guy who then topped him just a week later—Samaje Perine—was mostly just lumped in with others when mentioning all the great young backs in the country.
Perine ran for 1,713 yards and 21 touchdowns—the most yards for an Oklahoma rusher since Quentin Griffin had 1,884 in 2002—so he was far more than the 427 yards and five TDs he put up against the Kansas Jayhawks. At 5'11" and 243 pounds, he also has the kind of body that could hold up through plenty of touches (he had 263 last year).
Most Air Raid teams haven't had the luxury of a rusher this good, so the combination of Perine on the ground and the passing attack's potential could make the Sooners the most dominant offense in the country in 2015.
Key to a playoff run
Get the defense on track
Oklahoma gave up 30 or more points seven times last season, despite having plenty of star power on the field. Three big names return from that group in end Charles Tapper, linebacker Eric Striker and cornerback Zack Sanchez, but much of the rest of the unit is a work in progress.
There are good pieces to work with, but the key will be getting the defense to come together and all perform well at the same time. It doesn't need to be a top-10 performer, not if the Sooners are able to move the ball as projected, but it also can't be like it was in 2014 when there were very few stops made in key situations.
Stoops' brother, Mike, was demoted to co-defensive coordinator and also relieved of his duties with the secondary in favor of new assistant Kerry Cooks.
Tennessee Volunteers
6 of 7
2014 record: 7-6
Returning starters: 18
Favorable conditions
Promising youth everywhere
Tennessee reached a bowl game for the first time since 2010 last season on the backs of a lineup that was as young as they come in FBS. The Volunteers played about two dozen true or redshirt freshmen, including breakout stars like running back Jalen Hurd, defensive end Derek Barnett and linebacker Jakob Johnson, but also plenty of sophomores to the point that the majority of the depth chart was made up of Butch Jones' players, despite it only being his second year.
All of that early indoctrination to the college game led to quite a few growing pains in 2014, but that should also translate into making the Vols an experienced and battle-tested team this season, despite still being young overall.
Last season turned on the insertion of quarterback Josh Dobbs into the lineup, as he won four of his five starts and turned an inconsistent offense into an explosive one. Now a junior, Dobbs could become a dark-horse Heisman candidate if he's able to build off last year's performance while also getting Tennessee into the playoff mix.
A spirited and devoted leader
Jones won 11 games in his third season with the Central Michigan Chippewas, and then he jumped to the Cincinnati Bearcats to have the team share its second straight Big East title by his third season. This will be his third year at Tennessee, and he's on the same upward track with this program.
But unlike at his previous stops, it doesn't look like he's planning to move on anytime soon.
Instead, he's trying to create a culture in Knoxville that combines past history with present-day expectations.
"Everything is about our culture; the standard, the expectations that are in place from on the field to off the field," Jones told Bleacher Report's Brad Shepard. "Our practice expectations, our style of play, team chemistry, academic excellence, everything we talk about within our football program, we all have the same goals, dreams and aspirations."
Key to a playoff run
Ending long losing streaks
Tennessee hasn't finished with a winning record in SEC play since going 6-2 in 2007 to win the East Division. To make that happen this year will require knocking off a trio of opponents who've had the Vols' number for quite some time.
Tennessee has lost 10 straight to Florida, eight in a row to Alabama and its last five against Georgia. Those represent three of its first four league games, and the Florida and Alabama games are on the road. The Vols haven't won in Gainesville since 2003, and that also was the last time they won in Tuscaloosa.
Utah Utes
7 of 7
2014 record: 9-4
Returning starters: 14
Favorable conditions
An uber-aggressive defense
Utah led the nation in sacks in 2014, with 55 in 13 games. And while top sack man Nate Orchard (18.5) is gone, the Utes return five players who had at least four sacks, including junior defensive end Hunter Dimick (10).
Veteran assistant John Pease was lured out of retirement last year to coach the line and call the defensive plays, and the 71-year-old's penchant for dialing up blitzes and never letting up on pressuring the quarterback should again make for a dominant attack.
A potential spotlight-stealing opener
It's fair to say that the Utes are at least partially responsible for Jim Harbaugh's much-welcomed return to college football, for had they not gone to Ann Arbor last September and beat Michigan, then Brady Hoke might have managed to keep his job. Now, Utah could start its push for a playoff run by making Harbaugh a loser in his collegiate debut.
Utah hosts Michigan on Sept. 3, and while the Wolverines aren't expected to be very good in Harbaugh's first season, an impressive win for the Utes will get plenty of national attention. If that's followed up with a road win three weeks later at Oregon, all eyes will turn to the unheralded team from Salt Lake City.
Key to a playoff run
Defending the home field
Rice-Eccles Stadium is an underrated facility that provides great views of the surrounding mountains and has a devoted fan base led by the MUSS (the Mighty Utah Student Section). What it hasn't provided, though, is a strong home-field advantage.
Utah was 3-3 at home last season (compared to 5-1 on the road) and won just one of four conference home games. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, it is 7-11 against league visitors. This year, the Utes get five Pac-12 home games, including against South Division foes Arizona State and UCLA, and also face Michigan and Utah State there in nonconference play.
Returning starter information provided by PhilSteele.com and updated to reflect recent roster changes.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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