Predicting 1st Loss for Every Projected 2015 Top 25 College Football Team
Over the past 10 college football seasons, only nine FBS schools have posted a perfect record. A handful of other schools were unbeaten heading into their bowl game or the playoffs during that span, only to drop their first game.
Perfection is the goal for many but the outcome for few. It's inevitable that a loss will come at some point, no matter how good a team is, so it's best to be prepared for that outcome ahead of time. We're taking this concept one step further, by predicting the initial loss for every projected Associated Press preseason Top 25 team.
The new playoff system (and accompanying access bowl lineup) makes it unlikely for there to be no more than two unbeaten teams in 2015-16, but we're going on the assumption that just one team will survive the year unscathed. In the case of teams that make it through their scheduled games without a setback and thus would lose in the postseason, our predictions are based on Bleacher Report's post-spring bowl projections.
Check out where we think every projected Top 25 team will fall and then give us your thoughts in the comments section.
25. Wisconsin
1 of 25
Sept. 5 vs. Alabama (in Arlington, Texas)
Welcome back to the program, former Wisconsin assistant and now head coach Paul Chryst! Your reward is an opener against Alabama!
This marks the second year in a row that the Badgers open against an SEC team in Texas, after they blew a second-half lead to LSU last season in Houston. And that was with Melvin Gordon at their disposal.
Gordon and his 2,500-plus rushing yards are gone, and plenty of question marks remain. Alabama has its own concerns but also the track record of dominating these neutral-site games the last few years against West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Michigan.
24. Oklahoma State
2 of 25
Sept. 26 at Texas
Oklahoma State had a roller-coaster season in 2014, with matching five-game winning and losing streaks before taking its final two games against rival Oklahoma and then in the Cactus Bowl over Washington. The Cowboys should be more even-keeled this year thanks to a more favorable schedule that doesn't include many tough road games, but the toughest comes right at the start of Big 12 play.
OK State has a surprising three-game win streak in Austin, a stretch that coincided with its rise to one of the top programs in the country and Texas' slow downfall at the end of Mack Brown's tenure.
Charlie Strong's Longhorns pasted the Cowboys in Stillwater last year, a fact that was entered into evidence during the ongoing civil trial between OSU and former assistant Joe Wickline (who's now with Texas) when Strong testified "they weren't very good."
OK State should be better this year, but so will Texas.
23. Boise State
3 of 25
Oct. 16 at Utah State
Boise State heads into this year still riding the momentum it gained from beating Arizona in last season's Fiesta Bowl, an opportunity that came about by being the highest-ranked non-power-conference team in the College Football Playoff standings.
The Broncos are the favorites to be that Group of Five participant again, and they have a good chance of getting there without a loss if they can navigate a key two-game road trip in mid-October.
Boise plays Oct. 10 at Colorado State, a 10-win team from a year ago that could be rebuilding after losing its record-setting quarterback and its head coach. The tougher game will come six days later, at Utah State, which hasn't beaten Boise since 1997 but figures to have one of its best teams ever this fall.
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22. Georgia Tech
4 of 25
Sept. 19 at Notre Dame
Georgia Tech's option run game is among the great equalizers in college football, a complicated offense that's so efficient when operated well and so difficult to defend it can be productive no matter where a game is played. The Yellow Jackets showed this last year by going 5-1 on the road, with wins at Georgia and three other bowl teams.
But playing in Notre Dame Stadium is an atmosphere all to itself and one that cannot be replicated during practice. Tech's players might be hard-pressed not to get a little wide-eyed when they hit the field and are surrounded by one of the best crowds in the country.
It also plays against Georgia Tech that Notre Dame's defense has the speed on the outside to contain the edges and neutralize pitch plays while also possessing enough strength in the middle to shut down the dive.
21. Texas A&M
5 of 25
Sept. 5 vs. Arizona State (in Houston)
The point of the season-opening neutral-site games that have grown exponentially in college football is to pit a pair of strong power programs in a contest that will make for good TV and a great boost in schedule strength. But that also means someone with high hopes for the season has to start off with a loss, and in this case that's going to be Texas A&M.
The Aggies have beefed up their nonconference schedule after facing plenty of creampuffs the past few years, with this game against Arizona State serving as a prelude to future home-and-home series with UCLA, Clemson and Notre Dame. A&M hasn't beaten a power opponent (other than in bowl games) since a 2004 win over Clemson, per Amy Daughters of FBSchedules.com.
Arizona State will be the de facto road team in this game, especially with a recent report from the Houston Chronicle indicating that A&M fans have surpassed Texas fans in the Houston area. But ASU is the better team and will use it experience to come out on top and get Kevin Sumlin's fourth season off to a rough start.
20. Arizona
6 of 25
Oct. 3 at Stanford
The Pac-12's unbalanced schedule is set up so that teams like Arizona miss out on three of the North Division's six teams every season, with new intradivision foes swapped out every two years. As a result, the Wildcats won't face Oregon in 2015 but instead trade the Ducks for Stanford.
Arizona has lost eight of 10 to the Cardinal, most recently in 2012, and hasn't won in Palo Alto since 2006. That was before Jim Harbaugh turned around that program and David Shaw elevated it to a perennial power.
Stanford had a down year in 2014 and will be rebuilding its third-ranked defense, but there's an X-factor in this game that extends beyond play-calling and personnel. Arizona is 1-7 away from home on grass surfaces under coach Rich Rodriguez, including last year's losses at UCLA, to Oregon in the Pac-12 title game and to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
This will be the first of four road games on grass for the Wildcats in 2015.
19. LSU
7 of 25
Sept. 12 at Mississippi State
The first indication we got that Mississippi State was going to be good in 2014 came when it ran over LSU in Death Valley, a feat that doesn't happen often. It was also the first sign that LSU was going to have some issues and wasn't as good on defense as a 10-quarter shutout streak coming in would have indicated.
This Week 2 clash will give us plenty of insight into both teams again, and again the prognosis for the Tigers won't be good.
While Leonard Fournette is a proven commodity and could have a field day against a Mississippi State defense that only brings back four starters, he won't have a hand in trying to stop MSU quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott had 373 yards of total offense against LSU last season, and fueled by the sounds of clanging cowbells he has the ability to top that tally this time.
18. Tennessee
8 of 25
Oct. 10 vs. Georgia
Rejoice, Tennessee fans. Projecting the Volunteers will be unbeaten in mid-October means that the long losing streak to Florida (which stands at 10 games) will end with a September win in The Swamp.
But before Vol Nation starts thinking about an unbeaten record or even the SEC East title, they still have to get through a midseason gauntlet that starts with a visit from Georgia.
Tennessee has lost five straight to the Bulldogs, but the last four have been by a combined 21 points including three-point losses the last two seasons. The combination of the Vols' rise and Georgia's inexperience at quarterback could make for a chance to end this skid, but there could also be some looking ahead going on with a visit to Alabama coming up after this one.
17. Oklahoma
9 of 25
Sept. 12 at Tennessee
Oklahoma's convincing 34-10 home win over Tennessee last September said more about how far away the losing team was from competing than how good the victor was. This played out over the course of 2014, as the Sooners posted several disappointing results and ended up 8-5, while Tennessee came on strong down the stretch and heads into 2015 as a team to watch.
If Oklahoma is going to rebound from last season's performance, it will also have to regroup from a Week 2 loss in Knoxville.
The Sooners are switching back to the Air Raid offense, but their line will have a tough task trying to hold back Tennessee's front four with Derek Barnett coming off the edge and promising freshman tackles Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle pushing through the middle.
16. Arkansas
10 of 25
Oct. 3 at Tennessee
Two of the hottest teams in the country down the stretch last season were Arkansas and Tennessee, both of whom found their way back into bowls after a multiyear hiatus and dominated their opponents. As a result, both the Razorbacks and Volunteers went into the offseason with a lot of momentum and almost as much hype.
But there can only be one in this case, as they square off in an SEC interdivision clash that will provide the winner with an added boost to its rise while setting the loser back a few steps.
These schools last met in 2011, with Arkansas rolling to a 49-7 home win. Both programs have undergone a leadership change since then, and there are very few players remaining from that previous clash. What hasn't changed is that in the interim neither team has done well against the other division, going a combined 1-11 with the lone win being Arkansas' 2012 victory against Kentucky.
The SEC East went 3-11 against the West last year, but Tennessee helps its division's cause this time around.
15. Clemson
11 of 25
Oct. 31 at North Carolina State
After several years as the bridesmaid to Florida State in the ACC's Atlantic Division, this could finally be the year that Clemson emerges from the background and takes control. The Tigers also could be headed for a playoff bid if they can keep exciting quarterback Deshaun Watson healthy.
He was masterful against North Carolina State last season, throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns and adding two rushing scores in a 41-0 victory, but then a week later he broke his hand and was out for more than a month.
Knee surgery has kept Watson on the shelf all offseason, but he's expected back to run Clemson's offense this fall. He will be the difference-maker in every key game in 2015, but his will be the second of two straight road games for the Tigers and a prime place for a letdown after a solid win at Miami (Fla.) the week before.
14. Arizona State
12 of 25
Oct. 3 at UCLA
The Pac-12 South rivaled the SEC West for the toughest division in FBS last year during the regular season, and then it won four of its five bowl games to take the crown. A similar competition is expected between the divisions in 2015, which means nearly every intradivision game in the South should be a dogfight.
When Arizona State and UCLA met last year, though, it wasn't much of a battle. UCLA made sure of that by running all over the host Sun Devils, scoring on five plays of 80 or more yards and posting a visiting team-record 62 points.
Don't expect ASU to lose by 35 points again, but it also won't be able to match its performance the last time it faced UCLA on the road. That came in 2013, when the Sun Devils held on for a 38-33 win that clinched the South Division title.
13. UCLA
13 of 25
Sept. 26 at Arizona
UCLA will likely go with a true freshman at quarterback for this season, though Josh Rosen has been playing under such a bright spotlight for so long on the recruiting circuit that he won't enter the gig like a typical wide-eyed 18-year-old.
But none of those previous experiences will compare to a game that will serve as an early indicator of how the tough Pac-12 South Division is going to play out.
UCLA has won three in a row over Arizona, including in Tucson in 2013, but that was with Brett Hundley running the offense. Rosen will have a road game under his belt, but that will be at UNLV, a far cry from the atmosphere that could greet him at Arizona Stadium if both teams are 3-0 as expected and the game gets a national TV audience.
12. Ole Miss
14 of 25
Sept. 19 at Alabama
Ole Miss' 7-0 start last year was highlighted by a milestone win over Alabama, with the Rebels pulling out a 23-17 victory with a late go-ahead touchdown and then a clinching interception in the end zone. Pandemonium ensued, and Katy Perry further endeared herself to college football fans by joining in the lengthy postgame celebration.
We don't know if the pop star and adopted Ole Miss superfan will be accompanying the Rebels to Tuscaloosa this year, but if she does, she might not have as good a time. Alabama has only lost consecutive games to an opponent once under Nick Saban—LSU in 2010-11.
Ole Miss won't have as strong a defense as last year, but Alabama isn't likely to be as explosive offensively as well. The difference will be when the Rebels have the ball, as the Crimson Tide will try to quickly send that offense off the field on a regular basis.
11. Georgia
15 of 25
Nov. 14 at Auburn
There's unlikely to be a re-enactment of the Prayer at Jordan-Hare, but Georgia's biannual visit to Auburn will still end in heartbreak as it will put to end a 9-0 start to the season.
While Nick Chubb figures to get plenty of yardage, in order for Georgia to get over the hump this year it needs more than just a game manager at quarterback. None of the Bulldogs' prospective passers have much experience, particularly in a hostile road atmosphere, and Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will form his game plan with this in mind.
This could also be the breakout game for Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson, whose strong arm and ability to throw the deep ball are apt to bring back memories of the 2013 edition of Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. That ended with Auburn's Ricardo Louis catching a game-winning 74-yard touchdown with 25 seconds left that was initially tipped by Georgia defensive back Josh Harvey-Clemons.
10. Florida State
16 of 25
Oct. 24 at Georgia Tech
After running the table the last two regular seasons, Florida State heads into this season in a far more vulnerable state. And its schedule includes several games where previously owned opponents will be looking to step up and get payback, particularly in the second half of the year.
Georgia Tech is first up on the revenge-avoidance tour, and the Yellow Jackets were close to taking FSU down last December in the ACC title game. That was a neutral site, and this will be in Atlanta, where the Seminoles last won in 2002.
FSU's defense gave up 331 rushing yards to Tech's option attack, and that was with four players who would get taken in the first three rounds of the 2015 draft. Without those stars, the Seminoles could allow even more.
9. Notre Dame
17 of 25
Oct. 3 at Clemson
Notre Dame's deal with the ACC to play a handful of league opponents each year has already been scheduled out through 2025, so it's basically at the mercy of which teams it draws every season to determine how tough that slate will be. The initial crop of ACC matchups included a game at defending national champion Florida State last year, and this season's batch features an equally challenging trip to Clemson.
And just like the game in Tallahassee served as the Fighting Irish's first defeat in 2014, this year it will be the visit to South Carolina that knocks them from the ranks of the unbeaten.
The game figures to be an exciting one, with two of the nation's most promising young quarterbacks battling in Notre Dame's Malik Zaire and Clemson's Deshaun Watson. There will also be a pair of stout defenses at work, and while Notre Dame's group has more experience, the home defenders will have the crowd behind them.
This will be Zaire's first true road test, as the earlier game at Virginia won't be as challenging. He won't fail, but he also won't do enough to lead the Irish to victory.
8. Auburn
18 of 25
Sept. 19 at LSU
In Auburn's surprise run to the BCS title game in 2013, the Tigers suffered an early loss that didn't register much on the radar because the team was coming off a 3-9 season and wasn't expected to be in contention for any division, league or national championship.
That loss was at LSU, the last of seven straight defeats for Auburn in Death Valley. That skid will increase to eight after this season, when Auburn will head to Baton Rouge with a 2-0 record (and a solid win over Louisville in Atlanta) but run into a buzz saw in the form of LSU running back Leonard Fournette.
It was the pass defense that was the issue for Auburn a year ago, as the inability to get pressure on the quarterback gave opponents far too much time to throw. But four teams ran for more than 200 yards on the Tigers, capped by Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon going for 251 yards in the Outback Bowl.
Fournette will make his first push toward Heisman consideration with an equally impressive performance in helping LSU avenge last season's 41-7 drubbing at Auburn.
7.USC
19 of 25Sept. 26 at Arizona State
Few things are more deflating than losing a game on a Hail Mary pass. It's even worse when that play is the result of poor planning, as was the case in how USC defended Arizona State's final snap of their game last season in Los Angeles.
"Coaches called one play and then they switched it," USC safety Gerald Bowman told Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. "I don't think everyone knew the call was switched. I don't think everyone was on the same page."
Several USC defenders were mostly standing around watching as ASU's Jaelen Strong went up and caught the long touchdown without a hand on him.
USC's chance to avenge that ill-fated play comes relatively early this season, but it also comes on the road and at the site of where previous coach Lane Kiffin's tenure came to an end. After the Trojans were blown out 62-41 in September 2013, Kiffin was fired on the trip home.
Trojans coach Steve Sarkisian won't meet a similar fate after losing in Tempe this fall, but he will be in a bit of a pickle in that his team will be behind the eight ball early in its quest to make the playoffs.
6. Oregon
20 of 25
Sept. 12 at Michigan State
When Oregon hosted Michigan State in the second week of last season, it was one of the top nonconference games of the season and served as an early indicator of what each team was capable of. The Ducks rallied from a nine-point hole to run past the Spartans, and if not for a shocking loss to Arizona a few weeks later they might have been the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
Now the Ducks have to make the return trip to East Lansing, where Michigan State hasn't lost to a non-Big 12 opponent since 2012. Key Spartans like quarterback Connor Cook and defensive end Shilique Calhoun returned for their senior seasons for games like this, and they'll be as prepared as ever to exact revenge.
This will be the first real test of whoever succeeds Heisman-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota. Whether it's junior Jeff Lockie or Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams, he'll have his hands full and ultimately will go down on the road.
5. Michigan State
21 of 25
Nov. 21 at Ohio State
In one way or another, the Michigan State/Ohio State game has decided the Big Ten champion in each of the past two seasons. Let's make that three for three, as the Buckeyes and Spartans are both likely to be unbeaten when they meet in Columbus on the third Saturday of November.
They each had one loss a year ago, both coming in nonconference games, so their tilt still ended up deciding the East Division, and Ohio State's win sent it into a mismatch against Wisconsin for the conference title. Michigan State had to settle for a consolation prize of the Cotton Bowl instead of getting to play for a national championship.
Similar stakes will be on the line this time around, and despite the different locale—the 2014 game was at MSU—we're expecting a similar result. Last season OSU scored on six straight possessions en route to a 49-37 victory.
MSU last won at Ohio State in 2011, but that was pre-Urban Meyer.
4. Baylor
22 of 25
Nov. 27 at TCU
Even without Bryce Petty manning the wheel, Baylor's offense figures to again be one of the most potent in the country. It also should have an improved defense, with nine starters back including dominant end Shawn Oakman.
But what the Bears again won't have, just like in 2014, is a challenging schedule that will prepare them much for tough times later in the season. That means when they head to TCU for a post-Thanksgiving clash that will be the de facto Big 12 championship game, they'll be ill-prepared for what their opponent has in store despite seeing it in full force the previous season.
The last Baylor-TCU game was arguably the best contest of the year, with the Bears rallying from 21 points down in the fourth quarter at home to stay unbeaten. We can only hope this rematch is anywhere close to as entertaining.
3. Alabama
23 of 25
Oct. 3 at Georgia
Alabama hasn't played between the hedges in Athens since 2008, when it pulled out a 41-30 win en route to a perfect regular season. This return trip won't go as well, as the Crimson Tide will end up in a similar position as last year with their first loss coming during the first weekend of October.
Last year 'Bama rebounded from the six-point loss at Ole Miss to run the table and get into the semifinals, and the same is projected for 2015 but with a twist: It could end up meeting Georgia again in the SEC title game, which would provide added motivation for a strong performance in that final opportunity to impress the playoff selection committee.
A perceived strength of this Alabama team is its defensive line, though that unit will struggle to contain Georgia running back Nick Chubb similar to how it was shredded for more than 200 yards by Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott in last year's Sugar Bowl.
2. TCU
24 of 25
Dec. 31 vs. Alabama in Cotton Bowl
TCU missed out on last year's playoffs by a slim margin, edged out by Ohio State's hot finish to the season and the lack of a 13th game to beef the resume. The Horned Frogs again won't have that opportunity to make a final impression on the selection committee, but they'll have less of a need to after making it through without a loss.
Projected as the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, TCU will get the luxury of playing a virtual home game in nearby Arlington against third-seeded Alabama. But that's where the party will end, as the more experienced Crimson Tide will slow down TCU's uptempo attack and win down the stretch.
1. Ohio State
25 of 25
No projected losses
It's one thing to predict that defending national champion Ohio State will be able to repeat; it's another to assume it will happen without a bump in the road. But the Buckeyes are as close to a sure thing in college football as there has been in recent years, and the current version is likely to be as good—if not better—than the one that steamrolled through last postseason.
The 2014-15 Buckeyes suffered a shocking loss to Virginia Tech in the second game of the season, but after that point they looked almost unbeatable. They open their defense against that same Hokies squad, and on the road to boot, but to expect they'll be unprepared for such a rematch considering all of the attention they're getting is to assume that coach Urban Meyer doesn't know what it takes to handle a title defense.
True, his 2007 Florida team lost four games as defending champs (and both of his national title teams with the Gators lost a game along the way), but this Ohio State team is far more complete than those squads.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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