Best Action Plan for Every Top 2015 NBA Free Agent
Forget about the NBA playoffs. Enough time is being devoted to the Association's title chases, while not enough manpower is being spent making decisions on behalf of this summer's top free agents.
Correct: We're about to map out a free-agency plan for the offseason's biggest prizes.
This isn't your average prediction-fest. We're not just deciding whether they stay put or seek out greener pastures. We're determining the circumstances under which they stay or seek out greener pastures.
By doing this, we also have a golden opportunity to create a free-agent hierarchy. Only the best available stars will appear here, a pool of individuals compiled by looking at statistics, play styles, star status and, most importantly, which players will be the most talented next season.
Certain free agents and could-be free agents won't be eligible for consideration. Players like LeBron James, Tim Duncan and Dwyane Wade aren't changing teams, so there's no need to direct our soapbox speeches in their direction.
Restricted free agents will be removed from consideration as well. They're coming off of rookie-scale deals and have only one responsibility: sign for as much money as possible. They don't need our guidance.
Everyone else is fair game. And, by extension, so is their future.
10. Wesley Matthews, SG, Portland Trail Blazers
1 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Remain with the Portland Trail Blazers long term, even if it means accepting a slight discount
Wesley Matthews' placement is reflective of his performance prior to his Achilles injury. He was that spectacular, shooting and draining treys while remaining a preeminent pest on the defensive end.
Sterling two-way performances just don't mitigate the health factor. Achilles injuries have derailed careers in the past. Kobe Bryant hasn't been the same since rupturing his in 2013. Elton Brand, Dominique Wilkins and Chauncey Billups never fully recovered after run-ins with this injury bug either.
With the threat of a marked decline hanging over Matthews' head, he needs to put himself in the best possible situation. He knows the Blazers' system, and they have the means to guarantee his workload isn't too ambitious.
They already use him as a spot-up shooter almost exclusively—47.5 percent of the time this past season—and have another perimeter specialist (Nicolas Batum) who can chase around the opposition's best wing scorer.
Yes, staying put may come at a cost. Matthews' stock will be at least slightly damaged following his injury, and the Blazers have a smattering of other free agents to plan around.
Re-signing with Portland, though, is the easiest move. And in the aftermath of a career-threatening injury, easy moves are something that should appeal to Matthews.
9. Greg Monroe, PF/C, Detroit Pistons
2 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Seek out a four-year deal with a team that needs low-post scoring
Greg Monroe bet on himself last summer by signing his qualifying offer rather than inking a long-term deal with the Detroit Pistons or another team. Now it's time for him to cash in on that wager.
By leaving.
Nothing went especially wrong for him individually this past season. He joined Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins as the only players to clear 15 points, 10 rebounds, two assists and one steal per game, filling up the box score enough to attract hoards of suitors this summer.
Had it not been for Brandon Jennings' Achilles injury, the Pistons would have played a bigger part in the Eastern Conference's playoff push. Between the time they waived Josh Smith and Jennings went down, the Pistons were 12-4, posting the league's third-best record while reinvigorating their playoff push.
But one stretch of promise isn't enough for Monroe to surrender the next four or five years of his career. Coach Stan Van Gundy prefers to run one-in, four-out lineups that will curb Monroe's playing time so long as Andre Drummond is in town.
Reggie Jackson's return would complicate matters even further. He's a ball-dominant point guard who doesn't excel when being displaced from the action. Monroe would be ceding touches to him and minutes to Van Gundy's offensive creed.
That's not a palatable situation for a soon-to-be 25-year-old who's still trying to bridge the gap between himself and superstardom. Potential suitors such as the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks or Boston Celtics, among others, can all offer him a more prominent role conducive to individual growth.
Monroe would be wise to pounce on a change of scenery, provided his new digs do what Detroit doesn't: validate his decision to bet on himself in the first place.
8. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets
3 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Prioritize contract length over annual salary
Brook Lopez should be higher on this list. Only one other player, aside from Lopez himself, eclipsed per-game averages of 17 points, seven rebounds and 1.5 blocks while shooting at least 50 percent from the floor this past season: Anthony Davis.
A 7-footer such as himself should grab more rebounds, and his back-to-the-basket game will never be a reliable weapon. But Lopez is one of the league's premier offensive centers when healthy.
At 27, that should be enough to make him a max-contract candidate, maybe even enough for him to sign a short-term deal with the intention of capitalizing on the salary-cap boons in 2016 and 2017. Except it's not.
Lopez is playing on paper ankles and feet. He missed 61 games in 2011-12 and 65 in 2013-14 and needs to prioritize financial security over everything else when he's healthy. And he's healthy now.
Valuing years over dollar signs could inevitably pull him away from the Brooklyn Nets. Re-signing one or both of Lopez and Thaddeus Young cuts into the flexibility they're set to enjoy in 2016 and 2017—unless, of course, they rid themselves of Deron Williams' deal by way of trade or the stretch provision.
That maneuverability is paramount knowing the Nets don't have the rights to their own first-round pick until 2019. A four- or five-year commitment could scare them away, despite their desire to retain Lopez.
Locking up a paycheck for at least the next four years has to be Lopez's first and foremost concern, though. If the Nets are unwilling to make that guarantee, he's better off finding another team that will.
7. Monta Ellis, SG, Dallas Mavericks
4 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Re-up with the Dallas Mavericks
Monta Ellis and the Mavericks have labored through their fair share of struggles. The Rajon Rondo trade backfired and looked even worse when both guards shared the floor. Ellis is also prone to mood swings, according to ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon, which has the Mavericks second-guessing his return.
Marc Stein of ESPN.com says none of these issues are impacting Ellis' desire to return. He's apparently "not looking to leave."
Why would he? While his cap-friendly deal did the Mavericks a favor, they helped him in return, creating an offensive environment that pandered to his ball-dominant ways.
Coach Rick Carlisle uses truckloads of high pick-and-rolls and the right mix of shooters to mask Ellis' own floor-spacing limitations. The 29-year-old buried just 28.5 percent of his treys this past season and shot only 32.4 percent on his off-ball looks.
Few other coaches and teams will cater to Ellis that heavily. He's enjoyed two offensively balanced campaigns in Dallas and led the team in scoring this past season, becoming the first player in 14 years not named Dirk Nowitzki to do so, per MacMahon.
Ellis isn't in position to abandon a system that's working for him as he inches closer to 30. The Mavericks were on pace to have the best offense in NBA history for a good portion of 2014-15, and he was a big part of that success.
Change is assuredly on the horizon as this team looks to regroup after another first-round exit. But, as they've shown in the past, the Mavericks have room for Ellis, which is more than most other squads can say of a combo guard who, to this day, still can't play alongside other ball-dominant guards (see: Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Rondo, etc.).
6. Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat
5 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Stay in Miami
This one is a no-brainer.
Pat Riley forked over two first-round picks to get Goran Dragic in a Miami Heat uniform. Teams only pay that price for a player set to enter free agency (player option) if they're prepared to meet his contract demands. You won't find Dragic and Riley haggling over dollar signs.
Dragic himself, meanwhile, is comfortable. He's not overwhelmed with backcourt mates the way he was while with the Phoenix Suns, and the Heat have a reputation for returning to title contention swiftly.
Assuming everyone remains healthy, Dragic will have the opportunity to play with Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside and possibly Luol Deng (player option) next season. That's a starting lineup capable of wreaking havoc in the still-shallow Eastern Conference.
Riley has also positioned the Heat to be free-agency dynamos following next summer's salary-cap explosion. Even with Dragic and Bosh on the books, the Heat will have ample spending power once the ceiling reaches $89 million in 2016 and $108 million in 2017, according to Draft Express' Jonathan Givony.
“As long as I’m in a happy environment and a healthy organization, that’s the most important thing,” Dragic said, per the Palm Beach Post's Jason Lieser. "The next three, four, five years—I want to spend it on this kind of team, like the Miami Heat."
Or, you know, he could spend the next three, four or five years on a team exactly like the Heat—as in the Heat themselves.
5. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
6 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Position himself for free agency again in 2016 or 2017
DeAndre Jordan is in the driver's seat of a Ferrari entering the offseason.
Only two players in league history grabbed at least 24 percent of all available rebounds when on the floor while averaging 30 or more minutes per game before 2014-15. Jordan is now the third.
He complemented his foray into the history books with more volume shot-blocking and a career-high 11.5 points per game. He also notched a player efficiency rating north of 20 for the first time ever as well.
Basically, we need to ready ourselves for Jordan to get hundy-sticks-as-toilet-paper paid this offseason. He's made a case for himself as a max-contract talent, and the cash-strapped Los Angeles Clippers will have no choice but to satisfy his demands.
As Larson Ishii outlined for Clips Nation:
"Signing DJ to a max contract may seem like a precarious situation for the Clippers, but one that is unavoidable. There is simply no real benefit in losing DeAndre because of the salary cap, so the Clippers will have to pay him what he wants. The real steal for the Clippers may be locking Jordan up to a max contract before the salary cap jumps.
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Retaining Jordan this summer, before the salary cap jumps, would be a steal for any team, not just the Clippers. This is precisely why he shouldn't sign a long-term deal.
Not only is Jordan just 26 years old, but he's also made of reinforced titanium. He hasn't missed a game since the 2010-11 season and has every reason to delay a four- or five-year deal until it's worth substantially more.
Signing, say, a two-year pact with a player option for 2016-17 safeguards him against injury while putting him in line to reassess the market next summer. He could also sign a three-year deal with a player option for 2017-18, thus allowing him to go contract-hunting once the salary cap reaches $108 million in 2017.
Any deal he signs would have to be with the Clippers in this scenario. A new team wouldn't own his full Bird rights until he spends three seasons there, limiting his ability to exploit the league's financial boon if he's after the full max.
Remaining with the Clippers isn't a bad thing, for that matter. It gives Jordan a year or two to see if they're headed in the right direction before reevaluating the situation later. He could also sign elsewhere anyway and bank on Early Bird rights paying him enough to make the short-term gamble worthwhile.
Point being, Jordan has the means to elevate his financial ceiling in the near future. He should use them.
4. Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks
7 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Wait on Atlanta
Paul Millsap has absolutely no reason to leave the Atlanta Hawks. More than that, he has every reason to wait for them as they look to improve a 60-win outfit over the offseason.
Incumbent free agents represent a cap hit that amounts to 150 percent of their previous season's salary until they sign a new deal, per Larry Coon's CBA FAQ. That's cause for most teams to renounce a player's rights or iron out a new agreement quickly, so they're not slogging through too much dead cap.
Things are different for Millsap and the Hawks.
The two-year, $19 million deal he inked back in 2013 remains one of the best bargains in recent memory. It also means the Hawks only own his Early Bird rights, and that his dead cap hit is just 130 percent of this past season's salary. That figure falls under $12.4 million—less than Millsap would actually fetch on the open market.
Tack on that $12.4 million to the $39.3 million in all-inclusive commitments already on the books for 2015-16, and the Hawks' salary bill will be at $51.7 million before factoring in draft picks and other various cap holds. That puts them far enough below the $67.1 million cap to add another marquee talent.
Unless the Hawks are low-balling Millsap beyond justification, there is no financial incentive for him to leave. He knows what he has in Atlanta, and by holding off on a new deal, he allows the Hawks an opportunity to wedge their collective title window open even further.
3. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
8 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Leave Portland to join another team on a four-year deal with a player option for Year 4
Keep the tissues handy, Blazers faithful. This one's going to hurt.
Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo, Wesley Matthews and Aldridge will all hit the open market in July, and Nicolas Batum is slated for free agency in 2016. Toss in Damian Lillard's inevitable extension, and the Blazers will have to pony up hundreds of millions of dollars if they want to keep this band together—the same band that was dispatched in the first round of the playoffs.
It's unreasonable to assume a healthy Matthews will suddenly turn the tides in Portland. The Blazers will bilk themselves of flexibility for years to come—even as the salary cap mushrooms—by keeping this core together.
Hoping that the same thing yields a different result is always risky business. It's downright horrible business when it pertains to a foundation consisting of four players (Aldridge, Matthews, Batum and Lopez) who are approaching the back end of their careers.
Aldridge's best chance at nabbing a championship, barring any groundbreaking climate changes, is leaving Portland. He'll be able to join the team of his choosing, one that's better equipped to contend immediately (San Antonio Spurs!), or one that has more flexibility moving forward (Spurs again!).
Passing on the fifth year Portland can offer him is the toughest sell here. It entails Aldridge leaving $20-plus million on the table. Or maybe not.
Grantland's Zach Lowe breaks it down:
"But that fifth season, once such a tasty carrot, might not hold as much sway with the cap about to balloon. Aldridge might be able to have the best of both worlds by signing a four- or five-year deal with a player option in the last season — on time for him to opt out at the end of his prime and lock in one more long-term deal under the higher cap.
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Dwight Howard essentially did this in 2013 when he signed with the Houston Rockets. He can opt out of his current contract next summer, just in time for the cap boom and one last max deal, after having spent three years with his new team, thus ensuring they own his Bird rights free and clear.
Following that same train of thought works for Aldridge. It would put him back in free agency around 2018, when he'll be approaching his 33rd birthday and still worth another multi-year commitment.
Given the alternative—facing more of the same in Portland—leaving in this exact way is his best bet.
2. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
9 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Follow DeAndre's lead
Kevin Love's free agency may or may not be an issue.
Season-ending shoulder surgery has ensured his first playoff campaign is over. He won't be rebounding, shooting threes or dropping nifty dimes. He won't even be returning Kelly Olynyk's phone calls. He'll be rehabbing and, presumably, playing cheerleader as his team competes for an NBA title, all while the rumor mill churns out new material daily.
Most recently, during an appearance on The Dan Patrick Show (h/t SB Nation), Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports said the Cleveland Cavaliers are legitimately afraid of Love leaving in free agency. There's no telling if there's actually something to that fear now.
Technically, there's no telling whether Love will even explore free agency. He holds a player option for next season, one he's previously seemed bent on exercising.
But opting out is the smart play no matter what. Love would be leaving money on the table by not seeking a raise for next season, regardless of how long his next deal stretches.
And, like Jordan, it shouldn't stretch long at all.
Months away from turning 27, Love is young enough to spin the wheel and sign a two- or three-year deal that allows him to opt out in 2016 or 2017, at which point an historically huge max contract could be waiting for him.
Dipping per-game production does not make this any less of an intriguing option. Love's regular-season numbers are a reality of playing third fiddle to Kyrie Irving and James. Whether he wants to remain that third fiddle is almost irrelevant to this conversation.
Wherever Love signs his next contract, be it Cleveland or elsewhere, it behooves him to chase the big-picture payday.
1. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
10 of 10
Best Plan of Action: Expand potential destinations by leveraging his status into sign-and-trade possibilities
Unpopular opinion incoming: Marc Gasol and the Memphis Grizzlies are better off without one another.
This, for the record, presupposes they won't win a title together this year. If they do, feel free to get your troll on.
For now, there's no denying the Grizzlies' need to get more athletic. They cannot space the floor on offense and are liable to get outgunned when facing teams that can both run and play defense.
Unloading a former Defensive Player of the Year stings in theory, but Memphis' points-prevention prowess is not predicated on rim protection. Gasol doesn't block a ton of shots, and the Grizzlies were statistically better without him during the regular season.
Keeping him to police the paint as opposed to Zach Randolph would make some sense. But Randolph posted a PER of 24 at the 5 spot this season, according to 82games.com, and is on a more cap-friendly deal. The Grizzlies could survive or even improve without Gasol if they get something in return via trade.
Sign-and-trades admittedly present no financial incentives for the free agents themselves anymore. Gasol can structure his deal like Dwight Howard did in Houston, but he will still only get four years from his new team. Sign-and-trades do, however, increase options by bringing teams that don't have enough cap space to land Gasol outright into play.
Memphis can try to engage outfits that have floor-spacing wings and power forwards as well as draft picks to dangle. Think of a package along the lines of Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and the New Orleans Pelicans' 2017 first-round draft pick or something of that caliber.
San Antonio could enter the fold with a deal built around Tiago Splitter, who packs a similar defensive punch at a fraction of the cost. The Grizzlies could even try to engage the Knicks or Lakers in a deal for their top draft picks this year—the actual players, since neither team can technically swap the selections themselves.
In no way, shape or form is this an ideal option. Staying together is always easier. The Grizzlies and Gasol have years-long ties to one another. Loyalty exists. Parting ways would stink.
And yet, for the sake of both Gasol and Memphis moving forward, parting ways could fast become a necessity.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary-cap information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:@danfavale.
