Does Scott Kazmir's Arrival Spell the End for John Lackey in Anaheim?
The Angels made a trade! The Angels made a trade! The Angels made a trade!
OK, it's probably not as momentous as the famous “the Giants win the pennant” call, but it's right up there.
After a lackluster summer of taking phone calls, having conversations, and doing his best Bill Stoneman impression, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim general manager Tony Reagins made a deal to land Tampa Bay Rays ace Scott Kazmir for two prospects—lefty Alex Torres and third baseman Matt Sweeney.
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Kazmir has had a bit of a disappointing season thus far, running up a plus-5.00 ERA and twice landing on the Disabled List.
But in his last two starts, he went 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA.
The trade, which was announced on Friday, has sent shock waves throughout the Angels' fan base, and rightfully so. When a team makes as few moves as the Angels, every one of them is bound to be heavily scrutinized.
Interestingly, though, the reactions haven't all been the same.
Fans are taking up sides in the debate over whether or not this was a good move for the Angels.
Those in favor say this was the right trade at the right time, and that Kaz will fill a long-empty void in the starting rotation.
Those against claim the Angels sacrificed future success for an immediate shot at glory, and that a fifth starting pitcher is far less meaningful in the playoffs than a quality arm in the bullpen.
Both sides make valid points, though it was clear the Angels had to do something about the black hole that was the fifth spot in the rotation.
However, only time will tell if shipping off two promising minor leaguers—Torres has good stuff but little control and Sweeney hit 18 home runs as a 19-year-old in '07 before missing the '08 season—in favor of a pricey Major Leaguer will be worth it.
What's particularly interesting, though, is that most of the fan analysis of this trade revolves around what it will mean for the Angels come playoff time.
But the implications Scott Kazmir's arrival in Anaheim stretch far beyond October baseball.
John Lackey, the unquestioned ace of the Angels' staff, will be a free agent in the offseason, and word is he'll be looking for CC Sabathia-type money from his potential suitors.
Before Friday, it was absolutely imperative that the Angels re-sign Lackey and continue to run him out there for as many Opening Days as possible, whatever the cost.
Now, post-trade, negotiations may end up being shorter than they would have been.
The Angels will still make Lackey a priority in the offseason, along with Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu, but it is unlikely that they will offer him any more than they offered Sabathia last offseason—five years, $100 million.
With a Kazmir-colored safety net, there's no reason to think they'll go any higher.
Sabathia reportedly turned the Angels' offer down because it came with a 24-hour expiration date. He clearly wanted time to shop around and compare other offers, and eventually he found one that easily surpassed that of the Angels.
If Lackey receives the same offer the Angels presented to Sabathia—which is a very real possibility—then we can kiss our ace goodbye.
The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have already expressed interest in the big right-hander.
Because their wallet is deep than their outfield fences, the Yankees can never be counted out of any negotiations, but Texas may have the inside track.
Arlington, where the Rangers play, is only minutes from Lackey's hometown.
All is not lost, though.
In the first place, there is still plenty of baseball left to be played this season, so these issues are still quite a ways off.
And besides which, even if Lackey does depart, Kazmir is not a bad backup.
At the tender age of 25, Kazmir is already a two-time All-Star who helped lead the Rays out of the AL East basement last season and into their first World Series.
Sure, he's been struggling a bit this year, but, considering his past achievements, there's certainly no question he has the ability to lead this Angels squad in the future.
Given his age, he still has room to grow into an even more dominant pitcher, especially since he already has a comfortable relationship with Angels pitching coach Mike Butcher.
The two worked together when Rays manager Joe Maddon brought Butcher to Tampa a couple of years ago.
Wednesday will mark Kazmir's first start in an Angels uniform, and everything after that is anyone's guess. But if Lackey does walk, Kaz may turn out to be a suitable replacement.
Remember, fears abounded when Mark Teixeira left for the bright lights of New York, but Kendry Morales has absolutely erased Big Tex from our memories.
Maybe Kazmir will do the same for Big John.



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