Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: 2nd-Round Analysis and Predictions
The crown jewel of Eastern Conference playoff series has arrived.
And while a semifinal showdown between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls won't determine the conference's NBA Finals representative, the victor may just emerge as the odds-on favorite to earn that designation.
For once, it's the Bulls who enter what's sure to be a physical clash without any major injuries. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are battling strife in a number of forms.
Not only is Kevin Love sidelined for the duration of the postseason after undergoing surgery on a dislocated left shoulder and torn labrum, but shooting guard J.R. Smith has been suspended for Games 1 and 2 after striking Boston Celtics guard Jae Crowder in the face with a vicious elbow in the Cavaliers' Game 4 victory.
That said, Cleveland will still have the best two players on the floor in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. After romping through Boston's defense by averaging 27 and 23.3 points, respectively, the Cavaliers' most prolific swishers and dishers will be relied upon to mask Love's absence and spin a grounded Chicago's defense in circle.
Head-to-Head Record: Cleveland, 3-1
| Oct. 31 | 114-108 Cleveland | LeBron Drops 36 |
| Jan. 19 | 108-94 Cleveland | J.R. Smith hits six triples |
| Feb. 12 | 113-98 Chicago | Rose goes for 30 with Love out |
| April 5 | 99-94 Cleveland | Kyrie pours in 27 |
Series Schedule
| Game 1 | May 4 | 7 p.m. ET | Cleveland, OH | TNT |
| Game 2 | May 6 | 7 p.m. ET | Cleveland, OH | TNT |
| Game 3 | May 8 | TBD | Chicago, IL | ESPN |
| Game 4 | May 10 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Chicago, IL | ABC |
| Game 5* | May 12 | TBD | Cleveland, OH | TNT |
| Game 6* | May 14 | TBD | Chicago, IL | TNT |
| Game 7* | May 17 | TBD | Cleveland, OH | ABC |
Key Season Stats
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 31-10 | 22-19 | 107.7 (4) | 104.1 (20) | 3.7 (6) |
| Chicago Bulls | 27-14 | 23-18 | 104.7 (10) | 101.5 (11) | 3.3 (9) |
Cavaliers' X-Factor: Tristan Thompson
Without Love, the Cavaliers don't just need Tristan Thompson to pick up the slack as a scorer at the 4—they need him to crash the boards with reckless abandon.
Fortunately, that's Thompson's forte, and one he can put to use against less spry Chicago legs, according to Bleacher Report's Jared Dubin:
"As for Thompson, his offensive rebound rate in the first round shot up from sixth-best in the league to a rate that would be topped only by Andre Drummond. While they have a reputation as bruisers, Chicago was actually a below-average defensive rebounding team during the regular season, and Thompson is frankly just significantly more athletic than any member of the Bulls' frontcourt. He should continue to feast on the boards.
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In six starts at power forward this season, Thompson averaged 8.2 rebounds, including 2.8 on the offensive glass. He also shot 56 percent from the field in those spot starts, up 1.3 percent from his average of 54.7.
"Everyone still has to do more and has to get adjusted to whether they're starting or coming off the bench," Thompson said, according to Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. "We got to be able to still do our roles. We got to be ready for whatever coach throws at you and you have to be productive."
Thompson's not going to provide the inside-out scoring versatility Love's renowned for, but his ability to combat Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson on the boards will be imperative.
Bulls' X-Factor: Nikola Mirotic
Here's where the absence of Love looms large.
Nikola Mirotic is the floor-stretcher Cleveland now craves, and he's also the one who can burn the Cavaliers' defense by pulling Thompson away from his most comfortable defensive locales around the rim.
Although Mirotic shot just 25 percent from three against the Bucks in the first round, Chicago had no problem freeing him up for open looks. According to SportVU player-tracking data, half of Mirotic's shots in Round 1 came when he was either open or wide open.
If an aggressive Rose can drive-and-kick as Cleveland's defense collapses and tries to limit his effectiveness at the rim, Mirotic should be afforded plenty of opportunities to bomb away.
PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions
Which Derrick Rose Will Show Up?
The Bulls need Rose to attack, attack and attack some more, even if he did knock down threes at a 37.5 percent clip against the Bucks.
All season long, Rose has displayed a propensity to settle for threes, and that preference was evident throughout the first round. In the quarterfinals, Rose attempted a team-high 6.7 threes per game, with spot-ups accounting for nearly 28 percent of his production. On those play types, he scored in the 19th percentile, which was a departure from his 85th percentile scoring in isolation, according to Synergy.
However, isolations accounted for less than 13 percent of Rose's first-round production, with pick-and-rolls checking in at 24.6 percent. Since Rose has been an 81st percentile scorer as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and a reliable presence in isolation, the Bulls don't need him getting complacent.
If he does, the Cavaliers will be content to give him space to rise and fire as he seeks to work into a jump-shooting rhythm that's been largely elusive.
Can Cleveland Space the Floor?
This is the biggest question plaguing Cleveland, especially as it pertains to Games 1 and 2. With Love out for the playoffs and Smith suspended for the first two contests, the Cavaliers need to find steady three-point shooters who can prevent Chicago from packing the paint and clogging driving lanes for James and Irving.
But even with Love healthy against the Celtics, the Cavaliers still only shot 32 percent from distance, which graded out 11th overall among 16 first-round qualifiers.
Conversely, Chicago has ranked No. 2 overall behind the Washington Wizards in three-point shooting in that span, knocking down 39.9 percent of its triples.
With Cleveland in dire need of steady shooters to step up from the wings and corners, the pressure will be on swingmen Iman Shumpert, Mike Miller, Shawn Marion and James Jones to knock down the open attempts James and Irving can create for them.
Will the Bulls Be Plagued by Turnovers Again?
Put lightly, the Bulls were careless with the ball against the Bucks.
After ranking a respectable No. 12 overall in turnovers (14 per game) during the regular season, Chicago gave the ball away a first-round-worst 17.5 times a night versus a lengthy and disruptive Milwaukee defense.
Now, Cleveland's defense is hardly as intimidating, but the Bulls must be more disciplined against a Cleveland team that's deadly working in transition.
Specifically, Rose needs to cut down on the number of careless jump-passes in the half-court, while Gasol and Butler both need to get their turnover numbers down below two per game.
Why the Cavaliers Will Win
At the end of the day, Cleveland's success will be tied to the dominance of James and Irving. They were the second-highest scoring duo during first-round play (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were first), and there's still plenty of room for improvement.
LeBron knocked down just 20 percent of his threes against Boston, and Irving shot a higher percentage from beyond the arc (48.0) than he did from the field (43.5).
And when those two shared the floor in Round 1, Cleveland posted a net rating of plus-9.6 points per 100 possessions, which was great news considering they played the most minutes of any Cleveland duo by a huge 43 minutes.
As the Cavaliers search for ways to replace Love's scoring, it'll be incumbent upon Cleveland's star tandem to set the tone early and often.
Why the Bulls Will Win
The Bulls are healthier, and much deeper as a result.
Thus, if their full complement of contributors (i.e. Mirotic, Gibson, Aaron Brooks, Tony Snell, etc.) come to play, the Cavaliers' legs could get quite heavy as they try to keep pace on the boards with a bigger, more physical Chicago team that led all squads in rebounding throughout the first round at 50 per game.
While Cleveland may be forced to turn to small-ball lineups that neutralize Chicago's size, the Bulls pack plenty of frontcourt versatility with head coach Tom Thibodeau able to shuffle Mirotic, Gibson, Noah and Gasol around in different permutations.
Putting size, strength and health to good use, Chicago can make its first Conference Finals appearance since 2011.
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers in 7
All statistics are current as of May 3 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @AlecBNathan.
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